backrower8 wrote: ↑April 15th, 2021, 10:02 am
Robyn McBride’s role means there is an outside chance of there being 4 Irish & Leinster front row players on the tour.
Healy is a better scrummager than Wyn Jones or Surherland and would be an excellent GIY to come off the bench for a 25 minute shift in tests. Marler still an option if he is prepared to do 8 weeks in the bubble.
Kelleher outplayed LCD last weekend. Has the power game, form and fitness.
I think Kelleher will go. The fact that he got the opportunity to go head to head with Cowan Dickie from the start, that we won, and that he outplayed his opposite man hands down was excellent for his chances.
Gatland picked Mako in 2013 very early in his test career when he had only a couple of starts for England, and Sinckler in 2017 in very similar circumstances. Young players can train harder and recuperate quicker, and I think that Gatland would be a fan of Kelleher in any circumstances, regardless of McBride's recommendation [which can only do him good]. Jamie George and Ken Owens will go, they have been excellent for years.
backrower8 wrote: ↑April 15th, 2021, 10:02 am
Robyn McBride’s role means there is an outside chance of there being 4 Irish & Leinster front row players on the tour.
Healy is a better scrummager than Wyn Jones or Surherland and would be an excellent GIY to come off the bench for a 25 minute shift in tests. Marler still an option if he is prepared to do 8 weeks in the bubble.
Kelleher outplayed LCD last weekend. Has the power game, form and fitness.
I think Kelleher will go. The fact that he got the opportunity to go head to head with Cowan Dickie from the start, that we won, and that he outplayed his opposite man hands down was excellent for his chances.
Gatland picked Mako in 2013 very early in his test career when he had only a couple of starts for England, and Sinckler in 2017 in very similar circumstances. Young players can train harder and recuperate quicker, and I think that Gatland would be a fan of Kelleher in any circumstances, regardless of McBride's recommendation [which can only do him good]. Jamie George and Ken Owens will go, they have been excellent for years.
I think the biggest risk factor in that scenario is Townsend's influence. He'll want as many Scots as possible and he'll push for one of his former back-row hookers to be selected in the 3rd slot.
From an overall perspective, four Irish / Leinster front-rows could take a terrible toll on our prospects for next year. It's well recognised that the impact on Lions' players in the immediate post-tour season is horrendous. I offer the careers of SO'B and Jack McG as compelling evidence.
backrower8 wrote: ↑April 15th, 2021, 10:02 am
Robyn McBride’s role means there is an outside chance of there being 4 Irish & Leinster front row players on the tour.
Healy is a better scrummager than Wyn Jones or Surherland and would be an excellent GIY to come off the bench for a 25 minute shift in tests. Marler still an option if he is prepared to do 8 weeks in the bubble.
Kelleher outplayed LCD last weekend. Has the power game, form and fitness.
I think Kelleher will go. The fact that he got the opportunity to go head to head with Cowan Dickie from the start, that we won, and that he outplayed his opposite man hands down was excellent for his chances.
Gatland picked Mako in 2013 very early in his test career when he had only a couple of starts for England, and Sinckler in 2017 in very similar circumstances. Young players can train harder and recuperate quicker, and I think that Gatland would be a fan of Kelleher in any circumstances, regardless of McBride's recommendation [which can only do him good]. Jamie George and Ken Owens will go, they have been excellent for years.
I think the biggest risk factor in that scenario is Townsend's influence. He'll want as many Scots as possible and he'll push for one of his former back-row hookers to be selected in the 3rd slot.
From an overall perspective, four Irish / Leinster front-rows could take a terrible toll on our prospects for next year. It's well recognised that the impact on Lions' players in the immediate post-tour season is horrendous. I offer the careers of SO'B and Jack McG as compelling evidence.
Yes, but who do you think are likely to go?
As for Townsend pushing for one of his own hookers, McBryde is the forwards coach who happens also to have a birds-eye view of the Leinster quartet, so I think he would hold sway if needed. The threat to Kelleher is more from LCD. If Kelleher throws straight (the main thing that kept Paulie picking Herring in the 6N) and plays well again in the semi, then I think it will copper-fasten his credentials.
backrower8 wrote: ↑April 15th, 2021, 10:02 am
Robyn McBride’s role means there is an outside chance of there being 4 Irish & Leinster front row players on the tour.
Healy is a better scrummager than Wyn Jones or Surherland and would be an excellent GIY to come off the bench for a 25 minute shift in tests. Marler still an option if he is prepared to do 8 weeks in the bubble.
Kelleher outplayed LCD last weekend. Has the power game, form and fitness.
I think Kelleher will go. The fact that he got the opportunity to go head to head with Cowan Dickie from the start, that we won, and that he outplayed his opposite man hands down was excellent for his chances.
Gatland picked Mako in 2013 very early in his test career when he had only a couple of starts for England, and Sinckler in 2017 in very similar circumstances. Young players can train harder and recuperate quicker, and I think that Gatland would be a fan of Kelleher in any circumstances, regardless of McBride's recommendation [which can only do him good]. Jamie George and Ken Owens will go, they have been excellent for years.
What's your view on Healy and Porter's chances? I would particularly be pleased for Healy, I think he was close to his pomp when he got the ankle injury with the Lions in 2013 and it would be a fabulous validation of his career to reach the summit again - while not helping Ireland(mainly)/Leinster as he especially could do with an off-season.
Playing the boks we need a solid scrum (see the first test in 2009 and the world cup final in 2019) Wyn Jones looks nailed on to make the tour and I still think Gats will take mako v as the bench impact option so the third choice loose head comes down to either healy or marler imo
Marler maybe seen as the "good tourist" option but Healy is well in the mix
Furlong is nailed on as tight head , sinckler will be the bench option then your looking at a shoot out between Francis and Porter I suspect for the other slot. Porter can also cover loosehead can't he? that's a string to his bow , but Gatland knows and trusts Francis I can see him getting the nod there
Hooker as said before I would suspect cowandickie George and owens to be the three selected, Kelleher is probably the next in line and cowan dickie arrows have been off target a lot more this season
I tell you who is suited to the hard grounds in sa and being an impact player though is Cronin , a bit left field but you never know!
I had a quick look at the boks team last night , some real talent there
Their 8 9 and 10 axis if pollard is fit looks to be where they have a real advantage over the lions who don't really have any stand out half backs, we really need somebody to step and grab those jerseys
As much as a I rate Sexton as a player and as a competitor I have real doubts he will be able to cope with 3 back to back tests vs the boks
Last edited by JB1973 on April 16th, 2021, 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
JB1973 wrote: ↑April 21st, 2021, 3:00 pm
Barnes calling out hogg for his weakness in the air, he does have a point in fairness
He has never looked completely competent in the air, but his performance against England in the 6 Nations was an absolute masterclass in fullback play.
Second row another big selection area, I personally think Ryan will miss out which you wouldn’t have thought a year or two ago.
Itoje is nailed on, AWJ too although he may struggle in the heat and hard pitches. Then you’ve got Jonny Gray, Henderson, Ryan, Beirne (plus six option) going for only 2 or 3 spots.
John23 wrote: ↑April 28th, 2021, 11:56 am
George North is out. Done his ACL at the weekend. Gatland surely would have brought him. Open the door for who?
Ringrose will definitely go now. Very tough break for North, who did a great job at No13 for Wales in this season's championship.
Gutted for him he has played really well this season for country and region
If we say four centres are going with henshaw the certainty then your looking at Davies and Ringrose as the other two most likely to go with the likes of harris tulagi (gatland likes him) huw jones and aki to fight for the fourth slot
I don't see Gatland playing Slade at 13 , aki and henshaw have a good partnership wouldn't shock me if he got the call, if Gatland thinks Davies can cover 13 an outside bet at 12 would be the big ulster lad mccloskey he would suit gatland style down to the ground.
I think Gatland would like to bring Manu. I think he will give him every chance now that North is out ... those two guys are freakish specimens, and I think Gats would want one of them in the midfield.
I reckon it will be Henshaw, Slade, Ringrose and Manu. Owen Farrell will be selected, depends how training goes whether he is seen as a No10 or a No12. I could definitely be biased towards Irish players – Ringrose had a great season last year but has been hit-and-miss this season.
As great as JJV Davies has been in the past, he is on his last legs now. Similar situation to Drico in 2013 – all the smarts and the skills and the competitive will, but the body isn't quite capable of doing what the brain wants it to do. Still might go though. I think the only definites are Henshaw and Slade.
backrower8 wrote: ↑April 15th, 2021, 1:30 pm
What's your view on Healy and Porter's chances? I would particularly be pleased for Healy, I think he was close to his pomp when he got the ankle injury with the Lions in 2013 and it would be a fabulous validation of his career to reach the summit again - while not helping Ireland(mainly)/Leinster as he especially could do with an off-season.
Don't think either will go. I think Gatland will go Mako Vunipola, Wyn Jones and Ellis Genge at loosehead and Tadgh, Sinckler and Fagerson at tighthead.
hugonaut wrote: ↑April 28th, 2021, 4:13 pm
I think Gatland would like to bring Manu. I think he will give him every chance now that North is out ... those two guys are freakish specimens, and I think Gats would want one of them in the midfield.
I reckon it will be Henshaw, Slade, Ringrose and Manu. Owen Farrell will be selected, depends how training goes whether he is seen as a No10 or a No12. I could definitely be biased towards Irish players – Ringrose had a great season last year but has been hit-and-miss this season.
As great as JJV Davies has been in the past, he is on his last legs now. Similar situation to Drico in 2013 – all the smarts and the skills and the competitive will, but the body isn't quite capable of doing what the brain wants it to do. Still might go though. I think the only definites are Henshaw and Slade.
Gatland loves Davies as a player and he may take Davies to cover 12 and 13 , he does look to be on his last legs in fairness and I would be very wary of starting him on the hard grounds out in SA especially in that 13 slot .
I agree with you about Tulagi he would be his preferred pick to replace North if he is fit, him and henshaw would be a real handful for the boks with ball in hand and would provide the size and power needed to take on the big carriers in the bok side.
The fly half debate is another tough one to call Biggar had a great game on the weekend and is pushing hard for a tour spot but Farrell and Sexton are tough competition to get past whilst Russell offers something different especially in attack.
Logorrhea wrote: ↑April 29th, 2021, 11:42 am
Genge in the scrum against South Africa? Now that would be worrying.
Gatland has picked sub English props before – Mako Vunipola in 2013 and Kyle Sinckler in 2017. He love a hard chaw as well.
I don't know genge but he comes across as a bit of an unlikeable guy (granted he maybe totally different in reality) not sure it's worth taking a potentially disruptive influence on the camp for a 3rd choice prop tbh
Plus there are no English coaches to back him in selection meetings , personally I can't see him going on the tour
Don't shoot the messenger but the odds have come in on beard being selected for the tour, so who knows
