Heineken Cup 2020/21

[Blueberry]

I'd send play an almost A side the next two weeks, then mix and match for Munster/Toulon with the hope of having our strongest 23 for exeter away.

We don't have that as an option, given that we have 15 in Irish Camp and a number of others on the treatment couch.

IMO, while Europe will be our priority, Leocaster understand that the effect of beating Munster and putting a pot on the sideboard will be worth a few points in our performance at home against Toulon.

Look at it from the other end of the telescope, if we select a Squad which is too weak to be competitive in a final, at home, against Munster, what can the quality of preparation be like on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday in a week we face Toulon for a Europeean Q/F place?

Munster could well have four starters in the pack against England, subject to form against the Scots and injuries. It would not be a huge surprise to see Kilcoyne, Byrne, PO'M & CJ in the starting lineup.

Were that to happen, I'd have no concern starting the Pro14 Final with Healy, Kelleher, Furlong / Porter, Dev, Fardy / Baird and JVdF/ Penny / Connors, Conan / Doris, Ruddock with each of the alternates on the bench. Luke & Ross B as starting half-backs and Larmour, Keenan, Lowe in the back three.

Our midfield would be my concern depending on injuries and workload in English game. Henshaw and Ringrose are thoroughbreds and with luck could get through 5 games on the bounce, but I wouldn't like to chance it. Possibly Frawley & RO'L to start against Munster with possibly Ringrose on the bench with Dave Kearney & JGP.

Overall, I believe that Leo will give the Final a big go. Pots are for winning. What can be counted can be managed. Dealing with lost opportunites requires far more sweat and inspiration.

Key bit of luck we need is Sexton, Henshaw, Keenan and Ringers coming through unscathed v Scotland and England. Feel we have lots of cover for the pack and on the wing for example but we are light in the centre slots and Sexton is still the daddy at 10.

If they do we can mix and match a bit v Munster & Toulon (with bench cover) and get through this thing.

[brenno]

For what it's worth, bookies have us as joint favourites with Exeter, followed by a clatter of French teams. Don't seem to rate Munster's chances very much.

Odds from Paddy Power

Leinster, Exeter 3-1, Racing, Toulouse 9-2, Clermont 8-1, La Rochelle 12-1, Munster 20-1, Bordeaux 25-1, Wasps 33-1, Bristol, Lyon 40-1, Toulon 66-1, Sale 80-1, Scarlets 100-1, Edinburgh 150-1, Gloucester 200-1

No round of 16 match odds up yet

[Ruckedtobits]

Exeter's recent (last month) results against Northampton, Sale & Worcester, 2 losses and a one-point win against bottom of the table, make it very clear that they are no longer the utterly dominant force of last year and previous seasons. Even their bonus point win against London Irish allowed the Londoners to collect a try bonus point and the LI pack, even with SO'B, are not reknowned as heavyweights.

Exeter have to travel to Lyon in the round of 16. Lyon jealously guard their home record and have a pack of beasts. The weekend we play Munster, Lyon host Toulon in the Top14 and both Leinster and Exeter will study that game with real interest.

Toulon lost 3 games on the road since the turn of the year but claimed one notable scalp in mid-January, that of Racing92, when they finished strongly and prevented R92 from scoring in the last 35 minutes to win 23-29. Careful study of their form against Lyon will be rewarding.

Bookies are rarely far from the mark but the numbers will change before we get to mid-April.

[Jcahill1]

Is it confirmed we’ll be away to Exeter after?

Yes, if we beat Toulon we'll be away to the winner of the Exeter v Lyon match.

Why is that? What's the rules behind it this time? I'm usually fairly hot on the seedings etc. but everything is out the window this year.

[The Doc]

Is it confirmed we’ll be away to Exeter after?

Yes, if we beat Toulon we'll be away to the winner of the Exeter v Lyon match.

Why is that? What's the rules behind it this time? I'm usually fairly hot on the seedings etc. but everything is out the window this year.

They drew quarters and semis today. So winners of our game are away to winners of Exeter Lyon.

Semi final was just the luck of the draw... Nothing to do with seedings.

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[Blue not red blood]

Last 16 and quarters drawn today not semis

[Barry]

Last 16 and quarters drawn today not semis

Draw for the semis will be after the quarters

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[The Doc]

Last 16 and quarters drawn today not semis

Apologies yes... But same explanation on how we know the follow up game

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[blockhead]

As someone said earlier in the thread, its payback.
There's plenty in our squad, and Leo of course, who will be looking to give it back in spades to that particular French outfit. I think we'll do OK.

Exeter away (if we both get there) is a different proposition. Last time we played there it was seriously tough.
Exeter are now Prem and Heino champs!
Top Dogs! But have they lost that edge that drove them on season after season chasing those Saracens boys who "stole" titles off them.
They reached the holy grail, Saracens are gone, mentally this season is a new experience for the club and all of its players and coaching staff.

[riocard911]

As someone said earlier in the thread, its payback.
There's plenty in our squad, and Leo of course, who will be looking to give it back in spades to that particular French outfit. I think we'll do OK.

Exeter away (if we both get there) is a different proposition. Last time we played there it was seriously tough.
Exeter are now Prem and Heino champs!
Top Dogs! But have they lost that edge that drove them on season after season chasing those Saracens boys who "stole" titles off them.
They reached the holy grail, Saracens are gone, mentally this season is a new experience for the club and all of its players and coaching staff.

Very true. As Steve Hansen correctly pointed out, after Ireland beat NZ for the first time on home soil at the end of 2018, thereby achieving pole position in the world rankings, getting to the top is one thing, staying there quite another.....

[Flash Gordon]

As someone said earlier in the thread, its payback.
There's plenty in our squad, and Leo of course, who will be looking to give it back in spades to that particular French outfit. I think we'll do OK.

Exeter away (if we both get there) is a different proposition. Last time we played there it was seriously tough.
Exeter are now Prem and Heino champs!
Top Dogs! But have they lost that edge that drove them on season after season chasing those Saracens boys who "stole" titles off them.
They reached the holy grail, Saracens are gone, mentally this season is a new experience for the club and all of its players and coaching staff.

Toulon clearly aren't the team they once were and don't have the personnel. Exeter however, do have the players and the intensity of their game vs what we face week in week out in the pro 14 is a big step up. Additionally, we will have had to play a Pro 14 final and most of our team the 6 nations. Despite their success, they are still relatively unimpacted by being picked for England.

Player rotation through the final and the 2 European games is going to be critical. I suspect given the European draw and the fact that they haven't won anything for years, Munster will throw the kitchen sink at the Pro 14 final.

[wixfjord]

Our pack in particular faces a tough few weeks if we can get through.

I'd like to see the pack we started against Montpellier start against Munster, and then bring back in the internationals for Toulon.

Getting Doris back would be a huge boost too. He brings physicality in the tight that Conan/Penny don't imo.

[wixfjord]

Currently watching Exeter v Quins. If we do get to a QF in Sandy Park we should pay them to re-seed the pitch.

It's absolutely atrocious. A pure bog, verging on Rodney Parade levels.

Probably suits their forwards game, but both teams backs are being inhibited by it.

We'll need all our big engines like Tadhg, Dev, Rhys, Doris fit and firing if we get to that stage, it won't be a day for 'top of the ground'. Would be a game for Luke to start at 9 too imo.

[wixfjord]

Lyon are playing Toulon on Sat evening. Could be an interesting one for us.

[outcast eddie]

Greg McGrath and Jamie Osborne added to Leinster's HC squad.

[blockhead]

Zebre 14-0 up after 10mins v Bath in the CH Cup

[Ruckedtobits]

Looking for a surprise result? It looked like Wasps were on the road to beating Clermont and were 7-0 after 5 mins when their young Italian full-back counter-attacked from half-way, up the middle and through and then chipped the rwo covering defenders, gathered on the bounce and dived as he crossed the line AND DROPPED THE BALL.

Ouch, particularly as Penaud followed moments later with a classic break and then put Bezy in for a try which they followed with a second before the end of the first quarter 7-14 after 20 mins.

The surprise result I fancy is Lyon to beat Exeter. We'll see.

[cormac]

this game could end up with a massive score. Neither side particularly bothered with defending

[cormac]

Clermont defending like they've never seen a dummy runner before

[LeinsterLeader]

If Munster can beat Toulouse today, I'd fancy them to beat either of these teams