Sexton's last season? Outhalf going forward..

[backrower8]

I don’t know which team I support more, if either. Different contexts. There being more Leinster games means more of my time is on Leinster. Of course we all agree that Ireland’s success is more important financially to Leinster than the other way around.

I understand where your trust in the Leinster ticket comes from, and I share it but not to the point where I suppress the expression of my opinion on a forum.

I agree that HB is getting some significant breaks at the moment. It is obvious to all of us that HB has a much higher ceiling than RB and already can do things that Jonny never had, in addition to being physically more robust and faster at this point in time. He just needs to build game time experience as quickly as possible. N’tmack is a year younger than him. How old were Owen Farrell and George Ford when England played them? 21. Same for Carter & Barrett.

One reason why I am voicing my opinion is I concerned that the coaches in both teams will be put off proactively investing in and activating the succession plans in the interests of Irish & Leinster rugby by judiciously taking minutes and appearances from Jonny in favour of players who offer the next 10 years of achievement to us and need as much precious game time as possible before big red letter match days when Jonny will 35, 36 or even 37.

Jonny is such a big Alpha character, I think he is already hostile towards any potential successor/threat, remember the game in Munster and his unwarranted spat with Joey. He doesn’t have to worry about Ross challenging him yet, it’s not a. Style of equals and Ross knows his place.

If he loses the Captaincy, or minutes, or starts them he could well stink the place out…or at least he has the coaches worrying about that.

Look, he is still our number one, but we shouldn’t wait for him to decide when he is done and when we can bring the successor candidates through to the main stage.

Also, out-half is the most pivotal position. The rest of the team needs as much time playing with the future as possible, and not continuing to invest in the memory of the past. And that’s what peak Jonny is, the past and it’s not coming back.

[Serb]

N’tmack is a year younger than him. How old were Owen Farrell and George Ford when England played them? 21. Same for Carter & Barrett.

I’ve seen this narrative in a bunch of places around N’tamack — there’s 9 days between himself and Harry Byrne, not a year. Also, the path to being picked as France’s 10 was a lot simpler as they didn’t have a dominant pick there.

Harry Byrne is getting exactly the treatment he needs right now. He’s being picked right now for a bunch of Leinster games, he has been included as a training player for the Ireland squad, but being released to the province as he would otherwise get zero minutes. He got 330 minutes at 10 last season as a 20 year old including 3 starts, he’ll be well past that by the time this block of games is over.

Leinster are also planning for his rise, and have been for years. Hawkshaw and Frawley being moved to 12/15 is to facilitate the assumption that Harry and Ross will be battling it out for 10 from next season.

It’s likely in 10 months time Harry is the starting 10 for Leinster at the age of 23, younger than Sexton when he became the incumbent.

[mildlyinterested]

N’tmack is a year younger than him. How old were Owen Farrell and George Ford when England played them? 21. Same for Carter & Barrett.

I’ve seen this narrative in a bunch of places around N’tamack — there’s 9 days between himself and Harry Byrne, not a year. Also, the path to being picked as France’s 10 was a lot simpler as they didn’t have a dominant pick there.

Harry Byrne is getting exactly the treatment he needs right now. He’s being picked right now for a bunch of Leinster games, he has been included as a training player for the Ireland squad, but being released to the province as he would otherwise get zero minutes. He got 330 minutes at 10 last season as a 20 year old including 3 starts, he’ll be well past that by the time this block of games is over.

Leinster are also planning for his rise, and have been for years. Hawkshaw and Frawley being moved to 12/15 is to facilitate the assumption that Harry and Ross will be battling it out for 10 from next season.

It’s likely in 10 months time Harry is the starting 10 for Leinster at the age of 23, younger than Sexton when he became the incumbent.

in 10 months, Harry Byrne will still be 22.

pre-covid HB wasn't ready for lots of gametime physically as Felipe mentioned in the press during the week.

[riocard911]

I j ust hope all involved have learned from the total shitshow, that was the handover from RO'G to J10, which IMO cost us the RWC 2011 quarterfinal match vs Wales in NZ. The last thing I imagine any of us want is that Johnny's final appearance in the green jersey be an embarrassing career blot like RO'G's.

[munster#1]

As much as I am not a fan of Sexton’s antics, I sort of feel for him.
At this stage you can see that even the most blue of fans can see that he is close to the end, and is arguably in a steep decline.

Where Covid may extend many players careers, as they had time to allow their bodies heal, Covid may be the final nail for Sexton.
Stander mentioned during the week that due to Covid uncertainty contract negotiations are not happening.
He mentioned that by now he would have had his renewal completed, whereas he hasn’t even began the initial phase of negotiations to date.

For Sexton he will likely be handed a 1 year deal, on a significantly reduced rate, if he gets one at all.
But for Covid he may have gotten a 2 year deal, or a one year with a financial deal close to his current one.

Sexton is not just a player, he is our 10, and Ireland have poor succession planning in place. If Leinster fans are saying that R Byrne is not the answer, then we know we are in trouble.

I wish Sexton all the best, but I do hope that he walks or is pushed before he gets to the stage where is continually embarrassing himself.

[fourthirtythree]

Sexton is not just a player, he is our 10, and Ireland have poor succession planning in place.

Not the case. Planning was done, it just didn't work out. We had the next outhalf in Ulster and external events mean this is not possible. The IRFU forced Carbery out of Leinster in order to have a succession plan, unfortunately that didn't work out either. Carty looks like the stopgap to me until one of the young players gets a few matches under his belt. And you need to back your outhalf, Carty played in a bad match after getting the squad spot after Byrne played in a match where Ireland collapsed. I do think that we have to trust youth at international level and as such the IRFU should be pressuring the provinces to give European caps to the yout'

You could argue that it's too soon to do this to plan for the World Cup, which is fair enough, but it's not too soon to plan for next year. And that is what we are looking at.

[Oldschool]

Sexton is not just a player, he is our 10, and Ireland have poor succession planning in place.

Not the case. Planning was done, it just didn't work out. We had the next outhalf in Ulster and external events mean this is not possible. The IRFU forced Carbery out of Leinster in order to have a succession plan, unfortunately that didn't work out either. Carty looks like the stopgap to me until one of the young players gets a few matches under his belt. And you need to back your outhalf, Carty played in a bad match after getting the squad spot after Byrne played in a match where Ireland collapsed. I do think that we have to trust youth at international level and as such the IRFU should be pressuring the provinces to give European caps to the yout'

You could argue that it's too soon to do this to plan for the World Cup, which is fair enough, but it's not too soon to plan for next year. And that is what we are looking at.

A lot of common sense in that.

[munster#1]

Sexton is not just a player, he is our 10, and Ireland have poor succession planning in place.

Not the case. Planning was done, it just didn't work out. We had the next outhalf in Ulster and external events mean this is not possible. The IRFU forced Carbery out of Leinster in order to have a succession plan, unfortunately that didn't work out either. Carty looks like the stopgap to me until one of the young players gets a few matches under his belt. And you need to back your outhalf, Carty played in a bad match after getting the squad spot after Byrne played in a match where Ireland collapsed. I do think that we have to trust youth at international level and as such the IRFU should be pressuring the provinces to give European caps to the yout'

You could argue that it's too soon to do this to plan for the World Cup, which is fair enough, but it's not too soon to plan for next year. And that is what we are looking at.

On face value, I do agree that the IRFU or their coaching teams look like they were planning for the future, but this has not translated into game time.

When fit, Sexton starts nearly every game.
I haven’t done the research, so I am open to being educated, but I’d be surprised if any of our current out half options have started more than 5 games at 10?
Have any of them started against tier 1 opposition with sexton fit?

I hope that we see others starting there over the next few weeks and again during the upcoming 6 nations, but I will not hold my breath.
Sexton is 35, so his decline would not have come as a shock.

That certain person in Ulster is off the scene for over 3 years now, and in that time it was pretty clear that he was not coming back.

I like your suggestions on give youth gametime in Europe.
I think injury will force Munster’s hand in this one, and you’d imagine that Healy will get plenty of minutes there this season, at Leinster I’m not sure how Leo would take such interference.

On the World Cup, I think Ireland should stop putting so much emphasis on it. Build for the 6 nations, if you are constantly building for next seasons 6 nations, then you should put yourself in a good position going into the World Cup.
I personally would rather Ireland win a couple more 6 nations than make the semi of the next RWC.

[Xanthippe]

When fit, Sexton starts nearly every game.
I haven’t done the research, so I am open to being educated, but I’d be surprised if any of our current out half options have started more than 5 games at 10?
Have any of them started against tier 1 opposition with sexton fit?

Since Joe took over in 2013 through to last weekend against France:

Byrne has started one game

• with Carty at 22 v England (RWC warmup)

Carbery has started 6 games

• with Scannell at 22 v USA (summer 2017)
• with Keatley at 22 v Fiji (AI 2017)
• with Byrne at 22 v Italy (AI 2018)
• with Byrne at 22 v USA (AI 2018)
• with Carty at 22 v Italy (RWC warmup 2019)
• with Sexton at 22 v Australia (Summer Tour 2018)

Carty has started 2 games

• with Ringrose at 22 v Wales (RWC Warmup)
• with Carbery at 22 v Japan (RWC)

[munster#1]

When fit, Sexton starts nearly every game.
I haven’t done the research, so I am open to being educated, but I’d be surprised if any of our current out half options have started more than 5 games at 10?
Have any of them started against tier 1 opposition with sexton fit?

Since Joe took over in 2013 through to last weekend against France:

Byrne has started one game

• with Carty at 22 v England (RWC warmup)

Carbery has started 6 games

• with Scannell at 22 v USA (summer 2017)
• with Keatley at 22 v Fiji (AI 2017)
• with Byrne at 22 v Italy (AI 2018)
• with Byrne at 22 v USA (AI 2018)
• with Carty at 22 v Italy (RWC warmup 2019)
• with Sexton at 22 v Australia (Summer Tour 2018)

Carty has started 2 games

• with Ringrose at 22 v Wales (RWC Warmup)
• with Carbery at 22 v Japan (RWC)

I appreciate the effort that you went to. I stand corrected.
I hadn’t realised that Joey started so many games at 10.

Still sobering reading about how few meaningful games that they started in, and how few games the likes of Byrne and Carty have started in.
Will Connors has started more games than our current backup 10.

[ronk]

The IRFU have probably tried a bit too hard to replace Sexton over the years. For various reasons Madigan, Jackson and Carbery haven’t worked out yet but have been anointed. JJ and Blydendaal has their moments of promise too.

Sexton is still going strong and is still the best option. And might well be for next year too.

Ireland need to build up some good results. Leinster need to go full tilt towards the Heineken Cup with Saracens out and Exeter trying to inherit their place.

There’s room to continue developing the current outhalves without impinging on Sexton. Indeed that’s what’s happening.

Let’s just enjoy watching one of the best players to wear a Leinster and Ireland jersey while he can still perform.

[riocard911]

The IRFU have probably tried a bit too hard to replace Sexton over the years. For various reasons Madigan, Jackson and Carbery haven’t worked out yet but have been anointed. JJ and Blydendaal has their moments of promise too.

Sexton is still going strong and is still the best option. And might well be for next year too.

Ireland need to build up some good results. Leinster need to go full tilt towards the Heineken Cup with Saracens out and Exeter trying to inherit their place.

There’s room to continue developing the current outhalves without impinging on Sexton. Indeed that’s what’s happening.

Let’s just enjoy watching one of the best players to wear a Leinster and Ireland jersey while he can still perform.

100%!!!

[CiaranIrl]

Overplaying young lads that aren't physically ready is a recipe for an injury blighted career. Luke Fitzgerald is a prime example of someone that didn't need to be tackling giant Polynesian players when he was 20 years old. Joey Carbery probably didn't need it either. Harry Byrne is developing at exactly the right pace & place.

[mildlyinterested]

Carbery was just too fragile for 10.

[hugonaut]

Carbery was just too fragile for 10.

I remember looking this up before and writing it in last season's Munster thread* [link: viewtopic.php?p=758683#p758683 p.28]. Apologies for repeating myself, but I think it is relevant.

"Two serious wrist surgeries [both wrists] and three ankle surgeries [both ankles] in less than four years is a lot of mileage for any rugby player. I'm not sure what the solution is. He's a naturally slight guy ... he is fragile - not a word any player wants to be damned with. But you can't avoid it when you look at his injury record.

2016-17 [ankle surgery - Dec 2016]
2016-17 [ankle injury - grade 2/3 sprain vs USA, Jun 2017 - additional info: https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/40260239 ]
2017-18 [wrist surgery - Nov 2017]
2018-19 [hamstring - 11 weeks total, Feb-Apr]
2019-20 [ankle surgery, wrist surgery, ankle surgery - Aug 2019, Jan 2020, Feb 2020]

That's a hell of a lot of ankle and wrist injuries. There's not a huge amount of muscle around those joints to strengthen and stabilise them and take stress off the ligaments, so I am quite pessimistic about his chances of staying injury free in the future.

... two of the injuries he required surgery on were picked up during Irish duty [broken arm vs Fiji in Dec 2017, torn ankle ligaments in Aug 2019]; the Dec 2016 ankle injury was on Leinster duty and the Jan 2020 wrist injury was on Munster duty."

*I've edited two posts into one and added additional injury information for context and ease of reading.

[Dexter]

Carbery was just too fragile for 10.

I remember looking this up before and writing it in last season's Munster thread* [link: viewtopic.php?p=758683#p758683 p.28]. Apologies for repeating myself, but I think it is relevant.

"Two serious wrist surgeries [both wrists] and three ankle surgeries [both ankles] in less than four years is a lot of mileage for any rugby player. I'm not sure what the solution is. He's a naturally slight guy ... he is fragile - not a word any player wants to be damned with. But you can't avoid it when you look at his injury record.

2016-17 [ankle surgery - Dec 2016]
2016-17 [ankle injury - grade 2/3 sprain vs USA, Jun 2017 - additional info: https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/40260239 ]
2017-18 [wrist surgery - Nov 2017]
2018-19 [hamstring - 11 weeks total, Feb-Apr]
2019-20 [ankle surgery, wrist surgery, ankle surgery - Aug 2019, Jan 2020, Feb 2020]

That's a hell of a lot of ankle and wrist injuries. There's not a huge amount of muscle around those joints to strengthen and stabilise them and take stress off the ligaments, so I am quite pessimistic about his chances of staying injury free in the future.

... two of the injuries he required surgery on were picked up during Irish duty [broken arm vs Fiji in Dec 2017, torn ankle ligaments in Aug 2019]; the Dec 2016 ankle injury was on Leinster duty and the Jan 2020 wrist injury was on Munster duty."

*I've edited two posts into one and added additional injury information for context and ease of reading.

Hence the reason for Leinster seeing him as a FB in the long term??

[curates_egg]

It’s pretty clear that Leinster has had a succession plan for some time. I think part of the problem is that the IRFU’s “plan” hasn’t always been compatible with Leinster’s.

If you were to take the IRFU out of the picture, I would be fairly comfortable to sit back and see how the Leinster plan evolves. But if David Nucifora didn’t have balls, he’d be Davina.

[curates_egg]

Billy Burns on the bench behind Sexton for Ireland. Will be interesting to see if that is one-off or not.
Byrne hasn't got a whole lot of match time since the Pro14 final.

[Dave Cahill]

Little Harry Byrne highlights reel here

https://www.pro14.rugby/latest/opinion/ ... ey-coetzee

[ronk]

Sheedy just got capped for Wales. He obviously doesn’t think we have an opportunity at outhalf.