Corona Virus

[ronk]

Pro sport being able to take more precautions is part of it, but the bigger one is that most matches are televised and the live entertainment helps other people bear lockdown. That’s the reason exceptions are made, it’s not that their desire to play or the survival of their livelihoods are more important.

But can you justify amateur training on that basis?

No. There's an entirely different basis. One that doesnt come into it at this level of lockdown.

[Laighin Break]

The problem as I see it is not the testing, it's that the players have another profession that they return to after training/matches. In that situation testing doesn't matter a hoop.
Cavan 24 players one squad
Kilcock 20
Ratoath 17.

Lobbying is the only thing that seems to have influenced the 'paper weight-down'.

For sure having a second job makes it worse, but not fundamentally different.
You can have a gaa player that lives alone and works in an office with 2 others. And a rugby player that lives in a house with 4 others. Who is the bigger risk there? The only thing that I can see that justifies any exemption is that they are being tested frequently.

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The amateur. This isn't complicated. 32 panels of c30 amateurs is a much bigger risk than 4 panels of 40 pros. The GAA is a bigger risk than both Pro soccer and rugby combined.

You know GAA covers football and hurling yeah? >32 panels.
The rugby may have 4 panels in Ireland, but then they are travelling to different countries and coming back, and have panels from other countries coming in. So it's certainly more complicated than you're making it out to be.

[paddyor]

For sure having a second job makes it worse, but not fundamentally different.
You can have a gaa player that lives alone and works in an office with 2 others. And a rugby player that lives in a house with 4 others. Who is the bigger risk there? The only thing that I can see that justifies any exemption is that they are being tested frequently.

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The amateur. This isn't complicated. 32 panels of c30 amateurs is a much bigger risk than 4 panels of 40 pros. The GAA is a bigger risk than both Pro soccer and rugby combined.

You know GAA covers football and hurling yeah? >32 panels.
The rugby may have 4 panels in Ireland, but then they are travelling to different countries and coming back, and have panels from other countries coming in. So it's certainly more complicated than you're making it out to be.

How much less? 5? It's still 15 aside last time I checked and they usually have about 23 in a matchday squad.

The 4 provincical teams are based in cities. They train in cities close to where they live and they play home games in cities close to where they live(may not apply to Munster). They travel to away games together and return together. Air travel is safer than coach travel btw. But again, they're able to bubble, so even if they get infected they aren't going into work after.

The GAA teams travel from across the county(exception of Dublin) to train and then travel separately to wherever they're playing. You could have as many as 40 different cars from one county travelling to a game. I think that part is complete madness.

[Laighin Break]

Greater than (>)32 panels. Think KK are the only county without a senior football team. Not sure about the hurling, but I guess there'd be around 60 panels in total

Thing is the Govt/GAA could to some extent control/know what the GAA panels are doing wrt bubbles, travelling, testing etc (whether they do it is another question). The same can be done with the provinces, but they've no control over the Welsh, Scottish, Italian, English, French etc opposition.

[Ruckedtobits]

As predicted, the government decision on golf and tennis has unleashed the potential of c. 400,000 letter writers who were previously a largely supportive silent majority of sanity. Before this 6 weeks are finished Donnelly, Martin, Ryan and Varadkar are going to seriously regret pissing off a group that large, each of whom a long memory - as proven by the reality that everyone of them can remember exactly how they played every shot in the round that they're telling you about, in detail.

And this group has one further attribute that politicans will come to regret, they don't even need their audience to be engaged with their views. They've had years of practice telling friends, family and partners about their latest round, even though none of these people has the slightest interest in either the outcome or the detail of their story.

[Oldschool]

As predicted, the government decision on golf and tennis has unleashed the potential of c. 400,000 letter writers who were previously a largely supportive silent majority of sanity. Before this 6 weeks are finished Donnelly, Martin, Ryan and Varadkar are going to seriously regret pissing off a group that large, each of whom a long memory - as proven by the reality that everyone of them can remember exactly how they played every shot in the round that they're telling you about, in detail.

And this group has one further attribute that politicans will come to regret, they don't even need their audience to be engaged with their views. They've had years of practice telling friends, family and partners about their latest round, even though none of these people has the slightest interest in either the outcome or the detail of their story.

This is a classic example of why you need the data published to show that Golf is one of the safest activities that people can engage in (if it is) and GAA games are not as safe (if they are not).
What it does tell us though is that the data isn't being analysed to any great extent.
A crude approach has been taken.

[John23]

As predicted, the government decision on golf and tennis has unleashed the potential of c. 400,000 letter writers who were previously a largely supportive silent majority of sanity. Before this 6 weeks are finished Donnelly, Martin, Ryan and Varadkar are going to seriously regret pissing off a group that large, each of whom a long memory - as proven by the reality that everyone of them can remember exactly how they played every shot in the round that they're telling you about, in detail.

And this group has one further attribute that politicans will come to regret, they don't even need their audience to be engaged with their views. They've had years of practice telling friends, family and partners about their latest round, even though none of these people has the slightest interest in either the outcome or the detail of their story.

Excellent post RTB. I certainly can't use the line "you're obviously not a golfer" in reply.

[Oldschool]

So Deja Vue.
Now is the time to plan for post exit and even pre exit.
TaT . Re-evaluate and forget about trying to control COVID country wide.
Look after the health workers, the at risk and the schools.
Then use any remaining capacity selectively.
Analyse the data to identify what areas that remaining TaT could be best applied to with the retail and other economy driving sectors getting priority
It's also time to consider getting the CSO and ERSI to look at the COVID data with a view to coming up with some suggestions for a more targeted approach to restrictions and thus less disruption to the economy.
It's also time to consider some experimentation.
Open a few wet pubs in a county on the coastline far from Dublin and the North.
Further down the road and post COVID.
Before major infrastructural projects are undertaken it's time to consider what will the New Ireland look like.
More working from home might mean the need for less investment in road infrastructure, money that could be better spent on a new hospital west of the M50 for starters.
A third lockdown would mean we didn't do our homework properly.

[Ruckedtobits]

A new significant worry is the report from UK that antibody levels in people monitored three to six months after infection is worryingly much lower than expected. Scientists suggest that this means that immunity post infection may not provide long term protection which does not augur well for the efficacy of a population-wide vacination programme.

[FLIP]

A new significant worry is the report from UK that antibody levels in people monitored three to six months after infection is worryingly much lower than expected. Scientists suggest that this means that immunity post infection may not provide long term protection which does not augur well for the efficacy of a population-wide vacination programme.

As I read it, the same report states that there may be a difference in immunity between the natural immune response, and the artificial one provoked by the vaccine. Immunity responses also apparently differ depending on the level at which you suffer symptoms - asymptomatic infections apparently produce less response.

In short, we can't yet take this as any indicator of how a vaccine may work.

[paddyor]

A new significant worry is the report from UK that antibody levels in people monitored three to six months after infection is worryingly much lower than expected. Scientists suggest that this means that immunity post infection may not provide long term protection which does not augur well for the efficacy of a population-wide vacination programme.

What was observed is exactly what should have happened, you wouldn’t know it from reading the headlines though. Antibodies are supposed to subside when they’re no longer needed. Nothing has changed wrt the prospects of a pop wide vaccination programme. This is expected.

[Oldschool]

A new significant worry is the report from UK that antibody levels in people monitored three to six months after infection is worryingly much lower than expected. Scientists suggest that this means that immunity post infection may not provide long term protection which does not augur well for the efficacy of a population-wide vacination programme.

What was observed is exactly what should have happened, you wouldn’t know it from reading the headlines though. Antibodies are supposed to subside when they’re no longer needed. Nothing has changed wrt the prospects of a pop wide vaccination programme. This is expected.

If I understand you correctly it's called "Take" news.
They're "TAKE"ing the piss trying to suggest there's a problem where there isn't one.
Quiet evidently NPHET have been on the TAKE news trail for quite some time now.
The increase in the 65+ numbers appears to be mostly attributable to "Nursing" home settings but it's your fault, yes you out there looking at the TV in the privacy of your own home and minding your own business.

[Oldschool]

Drop in case numbers seem to have stalled.
Suggests that level 5 restrictions have had virtually no impact on the numbers and may even be having a counterproductive effect.
Perhaps it's time for a re-evaluation.
Level 3 restrictions would appear to be more effective than level 5.
WHY?
A few examples of areas worthy of re-evaluation.
If people aren't out on the golf course where are they and what are they doing?
If people aren't out having some retail therapy, again, where are they and what are they doing.

[Ruckedtobits]

Is there any particular source of analysis of the Pandemic which is reviewing the countries which have shown similarities between both "waves" thus far and trying to compute whether intervention has a noticeable impact and, if so, what is the value of intervention?

For example, using nothing more than the crude FT Coronavirus cases by nationality, one sees close similarity between the timing and wave shapes of Ireland and Iceland; between Japan & Malaysia but very great divergence between Norway & Sweden - in both waves.

The Irish case appears, from close familiarity with the granular actions taken by Government / NPHET, to have taken a path which has responded solely to intervention. But it mimics the Icelandic graphic in an uncanny way. Can this be accounted for by other factors such as weather, genetics, diet, social behaviour (e.g. School attendance)?

On the balance of probability, from past experience of documented pandemics over the past century, we are going to have a third wave - some experts have already asserted that Japan are experiencing this at present - so is it possible to look for indicators or precursors of this and even now announce that particular restrictions will be re-imposed if cases reach a particular level in late January or early February?

Whatever it is about viral pandemics, they rarely appear to have exceeded three waves. Of the most populous countries, China alone appears to have been able to suppress a wave by intervention, or is that because they have suppressed the information about a second wave?

The last onimous portent is the progress of Covid in Russia where, despite the existance of an effective (or at least the claim of efficacy) vaccine for more than two months, the case rate is increasing through November at a rate almost exactly parallel to that of the US.

I cannot find commentary / information about these aspects of the pandemic in anything readily accessible at present. Even the WHO site doesn't do anything speculative about future trends or analysis. Any suggestions for well based analysis or research?

Many commentators / media sources are now writing or talking as if we are in the last weeks or months of this worldwide affliction. This is a crazy response as past experience of everything from the experiences of Spanish Flu, or smallpox, or polio pandemics indicates that it is the next 12 - 18 months which will determine how our society will emerge from this global disruption to society.

Undoubtedly there are groups of corporate futuroligists working with the benefit of both historical reesearch, wisdom and modern computer power to model what will be the likely progressions in a wide variety of different aspects of life from healthcare, through religion, to commerce, political effects right down to professional sports. Is anybody in Ireland doing such predictive work at present? Should somebody in Ireland be doing such analysis?

[FLIP]

Whatever it is about viral pandemics, they rarely appear to have exceeded three waves. Of the most populous countries, China alone appears to have been able to suppress a wave by intervention, or is that because they have suppressed the information about a second wave?

It is undoubtedly the second, although the pure tyranny China can bring to bear on it's populace could be an effective suppressant. What's a little bit of forcing a populace into compliance by force when you're already committing crimes against humanity on an industrial scale against Uyghurs?

[Ruckedtobits]

Undoubtedly there are groups of corporate futuroligists working with the benefit of both historical reesearch, wisdom and modern computer power to model what will be the likely progressions in a wide variety of different aspects of life from healthcare, through religion, to commerce, political effects right down to professional sports. Is anybody in Ireland doing such predictive work at present? Should somebody in Ireland be doing such analysis?

When posting the above I had no idea that at least one of my queries was being answered as I wrote the comment. The piece by Jack Horgan-Jones in today's IT at:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland ... -1.4418368

reflects precisely what I was hoping was being undertaken and not just for the purpose of refuting NPHET opinions.

Let's hope that the work that Horgan-Jones references is published in full so that we can make up our own minds about how this crisis has been managed.

[Oldschool]

Undoubtedly there are groups of corporate futuroligists working with the benefit of both historical reesearch, wisdom and modern computer power to model what will be the likely progressions in a wide variety of different aspects of life from healthcare, through religion, to commerce, political effects right down to professional sports. Is anybody in Ireland doing such predictive work at present? Should somebody in Ireland be doing such analysis?

When posting the above I had no idea that at least one of my queries was being answered as I wrote the comment. The piece by Jack Horgan-Jones in today's IT at:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland ... -1.4418368

reflects precisely what I was hoping was being undertaken and not just for the purpose of refuting NPHET opinions.

Let's hope that the work that Horgan-Jones references is published in full so that we can make up our own minds about how this crisis has been managed.

Badly and not just in Ireland tbf. Main reason - arrogance (or close mindedness) amongst the medical profession, including the WHO.
GPs, Nurses, Frontline staff and Pharmacists excluded.
Even at this stage they don't seem to be able to look at the numbers properly and come up with the right answers in relation to their pronouncements about vaccines and how long it's going to take to get back to normal.
You've only to look at the age profile of hospital cases and deaths to realise that once the 65+s (particularly in nursing home type environments) have received the vaccine that COVID related hospital admissions and deaths will plummet. You won't get any of our experts saying that, although Luke O'Neill would certainly give a more positive slant on things, probably because he seems to know what he's talking about.
He certainly got it right on the wearing of masks, unlike a lot of his fellow experts.
Still waiting to see the CMO and his entourage wearing masks as they enter the auditorium.

[Ruckedtobits]

An Irish solution to a Worldwide Problem?

A wild thought certainly, but is it worth considering?

We are going to need a nationwide chain of vaccination centres in every corner of the country for innoculation with the vaccine over the next 2 - 8 months. They must be accessible to the entire population and immediately available

Pubs & restaurant owners have claimed that they have meticulously cleaned and prepared their establishments to welcome back customers, so designate every licenced premises as a Vaccination Centre for the year of 2021.

An Irish solution to an Irish problem. Is it at least worth evaluating? This sector have taken a hammering during Covid, is it time to give them a leg-up?

[Oldschool]

An Irish solution to a Worldwide Problem?

A wild thought certainly, but is it worth considering?

We are going to need a nationwide chain of vaccination centres in every corner of the country for innoculation with the vaccine over the next 2 - 8 months. They must be accessible to the entire population and immediately available

Pubs & restaurant owners have claimed that they have meticulously cleaned and prepared their establishments to welcome back customers, so designate every licenced premises as a Vaccination Centre for the year of 2021.

An Irish solution to an Irish problem. Is it at least worth evaluating? This sector have taken a hammering during Covid, is it time to give them a leg-up?

+1
Throw in a free pint and you might even get a much higher take up of the vaccine.

[paddyor]

Whatever it is about viral pandemics, they rarely appear to have exceeded three waves. Of the most populous countries, China alone appears to have been able to suppress a wave by intervention, or is that because they have suppressed the information about a second wave?

It is undoubtedly the second, although the pure tyranny China can bring to bear on it's populace could be an effective suppressant. What's a little bit of forcing a populace into compliance by force when you're already committing crimes against humanity on an industrial scale against Uyghurs?

I think this is a hugely underapreciated aspect of Chinas response. Even the emergency hospitals that had people in awe had bars on the windows like detention centres. I think there's something in the fact that months on from the outbreak their advice was "you need lots of ventilators". But else where this changed within a matter of weeks when it became known that the they caused scarring and in many cases didn't leave people with a great quality of life. THe latter part isn't tyranny but it's kind of a utilitarian approach to medicine. Put them on ventilators and keep the deaths down.