Corona Virus

[paddyor]

The answer machine has given the answer that most things outside the home are safe, so it's inside the home that's the problem. But he virus hasn't been hiding behind the sofa since March. So it's a case of garbage in garbage out. Thats because either people are not answering or giving false answers. Or maybe more likely, the questioners are not going back far enough in time. Either way, the only thing to do now is shut down, reset and hopefully learn the lessons and have a more fit for purpose test and trace for when we resume.
The real game changer isn't the vaccine but the 15min spit test. The hse are trialing it along side the swab test at the moment (ie same person tested by both).

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No, sorry. Not giving NPHET a pass on TAT because the public is to blame. They’ve been complaining about a lack of resources, this in the year of the states biggest budget. It’s nonsense. This wasn’t and isn’t the only show in town. They and the government have settled on the lowest complexity solution that requires the lease amount of effort for them. It rivals the 00s in its incompetence.

I have some bad news Heno, short of a violent public reaction there won’t be a game changer. This is the game, Martin has come out and said it. If they wanted that test certified they could’ve done it in 6 months or just taken the certification from say Canada.

[Peg Leg]

I would have expected to be arguing with you on this but, yeah this seems like a flub.
Masks seem to be taken as a bypass for social distancing. If they're going for a lockdown, then lock the f%~king thing right down for 3 weeks and show a strong plan for how we live with and manage from there.
As you said, invest in clearing it, then TaT at least has a chance.

[Oldschool]

Dr Navarro is talking nonsense about TaT.
It isn't doable.
Boyd Barrett hasn't a clue.
Miriam should retire.
Taiwan, Iceland, NZ, Australia and Korea are all Islands.
Before you challenge my knowledge of geography, ask yourself. How would you fancy your chances of getting into North Korea from South Korea and visa versa.
You'd be better taking your chances with COVID.
When Navarro said that Germany was having a few problems with their TaT then you know there is a problem.
Trump was right to pull the plug on giving the WHO money not because it was Trump but because it was the right thing to do.
Before you take me up on the statement ask yourself how much are these guys being paid to not know what TaT is supposed to achieve.

[paddyor]

I would have expected to be arguing with you on this but, yeah this seems like a flub.
Masks seem to be taken as a bypass for social distancing. If they're going for a lockdown, then lock the f%~king thing right down for 3 weeks and show a strong plan for how we live with and manage from there.
As you said, invest in clearing it, then TaT at least has a chance.

Also this.

Jack-o-lantern
Paul Anthony Ward
Bat
Man zombie
@PaulAnthonyWard
Heading for my last swim for 6+ wks. Pool closing while “individual training for the GAA” allowed. That’s based on who lobbied @DonnellyStephen
& @MichealMartinTD
the hardest, not public health advice.
Thought I’d be less mad about that this morning. I am not.
7:54 AM · Oct 20, 2020

Whats the difference exactly?

3 weeks won't make a difference as people will still be dying in 3 weeks(lag) and occupying ICU beds. Philip Nolan has the cudgel ready for any attempt at loosening of restrictions.

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status ... 05665?s=20

Wants the R down to .5% for 6 weeks. The lowest we got it in the first lockdown is just above .5% for a few days.

[paddyor]

They've packed in track and trace accross the country. Apparently they were advised that a full system was too expensive.

[Oldschool]

They've packed in track and trace accross the country. Apparently they were advised that a full system was too expensive.

At last some sign of reality kicking in.
TaT should be used to prevent/reduce the spread to our nursing homes, health staff and teachers perhaps.

[Oldschool]

I would have expected to be arguing with you on this but, yeah this seems like a flub.
Masks seem to be taken as a bypass for social distancing. If they're going for a lockdown, then lock the f%~king thing right down for 3 weeks and show a strong plan for how we live with and manage from there.
As you said, invest in clearing it, then TaT at least has a chance.

Also this.

Jack-o-lantern
Paul Anthony Ward
Bat
Man zombie
@PaulAnthonyWard
Heading for my last swim for 6+ wks. Pool closing while “individual training for the GAA” allowed. That’s based on who lobbied @DonnellyStephen
& @MichealMartinTD
the hardest, not public health advice.
Thought I’d be less mad about that this morning. I am not.
7:54 AM · Oct 20, 2020

Whats the difference exactly?

3 weeks won't make a difference as people will still be dying in 3 weeks(lag) and occupying ICU beds. Philip Nolan has the cudgel ready for any attempt at loosening of restrictions.

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status ... 05665?s=20

Wants the R down to .5% for 6 weeks. The lowest we got it in the first lockdown is just above .5% for a few days.

It's the second wave of April Fool's Day.

[Peg Leg]

I would have expected to be arguing with you on this but, yeah this seems like a flub.
Masks seem to be taken as a bypass for social distancing. If they're going for a lockdown, then lock the f%~king thing right down for 3 weeks and show a strong plan for how we live with and manage from there.
As you said, invest in clearing it, then TaT at least has a chance.

Also this.

Jack-o-lantern
Paul Anthony Ward
Bat
Man zombie
@PaulAnthonyWard
Heading for my last swim for 6+ wks. Pool closing while “individual training for the GAA” allowed. That’s based on who lobbied @DonnellyStephen
& @MichealMartinTD
the hardest, not public health advice.
Thought I’d be less mad about that this morning. I am not.
7:54 AM · Oct 20, 2020

Whats the difference exactly?

3 weeks won't make a difference as people will still be dying in 3 weeks(lag) and occupying ICU beds. Philip Nolan has the cudgel ready for any attempt at loosening of restrictions.

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status ... 05665?s=20

Wants the R down to .5% for 6 weeks. The lowest we got it in the first lockdown is just above .5% for a few days.

The infection seems to run its course in 10-14 days. Why not shut everything down bar extremely essential services for 3 weeks, go full China on it. Impose the necessary test regime for when we re-emerge and manage cases from there.

[Oldschool]

So the teacher's unions are given information about the incidence of COVID in schools.
That's good.
Listening to Joe Duffy for a few minutes this avo.
Guy on from a gym giving out about the gyms being closed and that anecdotal evidence suggests that COVID incidence in Gyms is low.
GP comes on explaining that sweat etc increases the COVID plume or words to that effect.
So good so far.
Joe challenges the gym guy about his anecdotal evidence and the gym guy backs off a little.
Joe moves in for the coup de gras.
If in doubt, stay out or words to that effect.
This is where I have a problem.
No Joe you're absolutely 100% wrong.
If in doubt find out.
Why won't NPHET provide the data that at least gives the gym guy the basis on which his business has been closed.
NPHET attitude to date has been why, you wouldn't understand, just do as we say (meanwhile no sign of a mask on Holohan)
The reason businesses need that information is because they know their business better than anyone else.
And just maybe there might be something they can do to reduce the incidence of COVID in gyms (as a specific) if it's necessary.
Better ventilation for example and the gym operator will do his own cost benefit analysis.
Does that sound like an even half reasonable approach to take with business people in general.
Certainly the government needs that sort of information to make informed decisions about what should and shouldn't be closed and the associated costs/benefits.
Not just financial ones either.
If in doubt find out!

[Ruckedtobits]

The Govm't has rightly pissed off members of Tennis & Golf Clubs by ordering all to close from tomorrow. The GUI apparently offered to enforce the 5km restriction on its own Club members and to ensure only two players could play 9 holes a day. Rumour has it that GAA-focussed Ministers insisted that if GAA was gone so all sports should close.

Not a clever move to confine so many letter writers indoors for 6 weeks with nothing to do.

[John23]

The Govm't has rightly pissed off members of Tennis & Golf Clubs by ordering all to close from tomorrow. The GUI apparently offered to enforce the 5km restriction on its own Club members and to ensure only two players could play 9 holes a day. Rumour has it that GAA-focussed Ministers insisted that if GAA was gone so all sports should close.

Not a clever move to confine so many letter writers indoors for 6 weeks with nothing to do.

Recently retired and a member of a golf club which is within 5km of my home I was looking forward to a little respite from Level 5. "Golfgate" probably didn't help matters. I am not going to complain. I am just sparing a thought for any business person who is locking up his/her premises around now wondering if they will open the door again.

[heno]

The logic as I understand it is :
everything that's not essential to close with exceptions for elite sport where they are testing 2/3 times a week. The question I have is the elite gaa, are they testing like that too?
(Note also exceptions for underage sport)

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[Peg Leg]

The logic as I understand it is :
everything that's not essential to close with exceptions for elite sport where they are testing 2/3 times a week. The question I have is the elite gaa, are they testing like that too?
(Note also exceptions for underage sport)

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The problem as I see it is not the testing, it's that the players have another profession that they return to after training/matches. In that situation testing doesn't matter a hoop.
Cavan 24 players one squad
Kilcock 20
Ratoath 17.

Lobbying is the only thing that seems to have influenced the 'paper weight-down'.

[Oldschool]

Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Ireland
Report prepared by HPSC on 22/10/2020 for National Public Health Emergency Team
Table 6: Number of clusters/outbreaks COVID-19 by location and HSE area notified to midnight 20/10/2020
A summary of data pulled from HSPC report (see below)

Outbreak Location Cluster Total
Private house 4,217
Other* 742
Nursing home 323
Residential institution 237
Workplace 209
Hospital 137
Comm. Hosp/Long-stay 34
Unknown 1
Total 5,900 clusters which represents 26642 cases (NPHET daily report).

*Other outbreak location includes community, extended family, hotel, public house, retail outlet, travel related and all other
locations.
A cluster is defined as two or more cases.
742 clusters involving "community, extended family, hotel, public house, retail outlet, travel related and all other
locations."
That figure of 742 bears some analysis and questioning.
NPHET have the figures behind that 742.
I don't play golf however I fail to see how there is any real risk of catching COVID on a golf course so why are they being closed.
It was done in the interest of fairness to other sports apparently ie not based on facts or science.
There is a very easy way to identify the risk level associated with playing golf and that of playing GAA football for example.
A table of those risks could and should be prepared for the various activities.
For example
Shopping in retail outlet.
Shopping in Supermarket.
Shopping in DIY
Let us see the data and close stuff based on facts and science not quash ideology.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outbreak Location E M MW NE NW S SE W HPSC Total
Private house 2,632 66 154 337 204 345 219 260 4,217
Other* 150 89 128 42 70 143 37 81 2 742
Nursing home 157 15 20 48 8 16 18 41 323
Residential institution 129 13 13 31 6 28 11 6 237
Workplace 72 14 19 32 23 18 15 16 209
Hospital 75 7 5 18 4 16 5 7 137
Comm. Hosp/Long-stay unit 6 5 2 4 7 5 5 34
Unknown 1 1
Total 3,221 209 341 508 320 573 310 416 2 5,900
*Other outbreak location includes community, extended family, hotel, public house, retail outlet, travel related and all other
locations.

[Oldschool]

Nursing Home outbreak.
As I understand it, a major contributory factor is due to the fact that frequent and regular testing had been suspended.
The misunderstanding and misrepresentation of TaT is coming home to roost.
Hospitals, Nursing Homes and schools (teachers in particular) should take priority over any other groups for testing purpose and they are ideal locations where the value of TaT can be very evident.
So WHO (Not Woorld Health Organisation) drove the decision to suspend or reduce the testing in Nursing Homes and more importantly WHY?
In favour of what, to chase after a load of asymptomatic cases among the younger age groups. Was this a low hanging fruit excercise.
EG we know there is likely to be a very high incidences of case in Meath following the county club final there and this pattern may well have been repeated in other counties. Is there, in fact, any correlation between county finals and significant increases in cases in the towns/townlands involved in the finals.
NPHET has that data, absolutely. It exists and it can be analyzed and if it's in a database (it should be) it should be possible to do a lot more with the data than we are seeing. Generating a few Exponential curves is old hat.

https://geohive.maps.arcgis.com/apps/we ... 7de6b20122

The display above gives a lot of information about case incidence rates and where.
The display is already out of date when published. That display could and should be updated on a daily basis, the data is available.

There is an even more detailed map which is not available to the public.

My point is that there is a lot of data available to NPHET that should be analysed properly to focus TaT more appropriately, to identify what types of activities carry the greatest risk and what action could be taken to ameliorate.
We're in lockdown for six weeks (if we are lucky). Now, today that analysis needs to start and quite frankly I doubt that NPHET has the necessary expertise to do it.
BUT they do have the data.
The government needs to tap into the necessary expertise TODAY.

[heno]

The logic as I understand it is :
everything that's not essential to close with exceptions for elite sport where they are testing 2/3 times a week. The question I have is the elite gaa, are they testing like that too?
(Note also exceptions for underage sport)

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

The problem as I see it is not the testing, it's that the players have another profession that they return to after training/matches. In that situation testing doesn't matter a hoop.
Cavan 24 players one squad
Kilcock 20
Ratoath 17.

Lobbying is the only thing that seems to have influenced the 'paper weight-down'.

For sure having a second job makes it worse, but not fundamentally different.
You can have a gaa player that lives alone and works in an office with 2 others. And a rugby player that lives in a house with 4 others. Who is the bigger risk there? The only thing that I can see that justifies any exemption is that they are being tested frequently.

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[Oldschool]

The logic as I understand it is :
everything that's not essential to close with exceptions for elite sport where they are testing 2/3 times a week. The question I have is the elite gaa, are they testing like that too?
(Note also exceptions for underage sport)

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

The problem as I see it is not the testing, it's that the players have another profession that they return to after training/matches. In that situation testing doesn't matter a hoop.
Cavan 24 players one squad
Kilcock 20
Ratoath 17.

Lobbying is the only thing that seems to have influenced the 'paper weight-down'.

For sure having a second job makes it worse, but not fundamentally different.
You can have a gaa player that lives alone and works in an office with 2 others. And a rugby player that lives in a house with 4 others. Who is the bigger risk there? The only thing that I can see that justifies any exemption is that they are being tested frequently.

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Then the 50k question.
If resources are limited who gets priority.
I would also argue that the 5 professional rugby players are probably in a bubble within a larger bubble whereas the players that have another profession quite clearly are not.

[ronk]

Pro sport being able to take more precautions is part of it, but the bigger one is that most matches are televised and the live entertainment helps other people bear lockdown. That’s the reason exceptions are made, it’s not that their desire to play or the survival of their livelihoods are more important.

[paddyor]

The logic as I understand it is :
everything that's not essential to close with exceptions for elite sport where they are testing 2/3 times a week. The question I have is the elite gaa, are they testing like that too?
(Note also exceptions for underage sport)

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

The problem as I see it is not the testing, it's that the players have another profession that they return to after training/matches. In that situation testing doesn't matter a hoop.
Cavan 24 players one squad
Kilcock 20
Ratoath 17.

Lobbying is the only thing that seems to have influenced the 'paper weight-down'.

For sure having a second job makes it worse, but not fundamentally different.
You can have a gaa player that lives alone and works in an office with 2 others. And a rugby player that lives in a house with 4 others. Who is the bigger risk there? The only thing that I can see that justifies any exemption is that they are being tested frequently.

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The amateur. This isn't complicated. 32 panels of c30 amateurs is a much bigger risk than 4 panels of 40 pros. The GAA is a bigger risk than both Pro soccer and rugby combined.

[paddyor]

Pro sport being able to take more precautions is part of it, but the bigger one is that most matches are televised and the live entertainment helps other people bear lockdown. That’s the reason exceptions are made, it’s not that their desire to play or the survival of their livelihoods are more important.

But can you justify amateur training on that basis?