Corona Virus

[carlow man]

New strain is mostly bullsh!t imho.
Viruses, in general, become much more active or infectious as temperatures drop, hence the well known flu season.
COVID is no different.
It's no coincidence that case numbers are higher.
Throw in the carry on over Christmas and we are now where we are.
Lets blame the new strain instead of calling people out on their poor behaviour so that they can say.
"It's not me, did you not here the CMO saying how concerned he is that the new strain is etc."
Anyway, it's f^ckin cold and icy out there and COVID likes working in the cold.
Watch your step.

Are you a professor of science or medical illnesses? The new strain is completely different to the old one. Its affecting more people and younger, healthier people at that. The original strain wasnt as transmisable than this one. People need to wake the fcuk up and take this seriously. We all know people who have lost loved ones through this disease and saying the new strain is the same as the old one is nonsense.

Well about the best answer I can give you to that question is that I was wearing a mask when the CMO and WHO were saying not to.
I was right they were wrong.
But then as an engineer I did have a professional advantage over them so perhaps I shouldn't crow too much.

You must sleep well at night knowing you are ahead of the rest of us. Perhaps you should run for local government?

[Oldschool]

Time for a little review
1.5% of cases are due to foreign travel and yet 98.5% of the noise on the airwaves is about 1.5%.
And once again most of it is bullshyte and repetitive.
TaT still featuring in dispatches which at this point in time shows that the people pushing for more are either morons ir trying to make political capital.
So what does the near term future look like (or should look like)
Schools government look like they're going to take a gradual opening up approach, special needs and Leaving certs.
A couple of suggestions that they should consider.
Two weeks after opening up special needs and Leaving cert:-
They should open up retail with one exception, to exclude Dublin City centre retail.
They should also open the golf courses.
They should also postpone St Patrick's Day celebrations until July.
Vaccine supplies - the die is cast, the EU haven't even authorized the Astrazeneca vaccine and they're making an unnecessary political fuss about.
There's nothing to be gained taking that approach.
We all want a vaccine so do whatever it takes to help the process rather political ass covering points scoring.
Donnelly is wisely staying clear of that one.
Getting back to the 1.5%' there are some things that can be done that will improve matters but really some of the nonsense been spouted is just that nonsense. (Don't ask? Because a refusal might offend) Again political points scoring in the main.

[TerenureJim]

If 1.5% of cases are due to travel then how is the UK (Kent I believe) strain accounting for about 60-70% of cases? Yes initially its 1.5% but that seems to seed a whole lot eventually so why not look at quarantine hotels seems to work on some other islands. Technically I can't go past portobello bridge yet somehow a not insignificant number of people are coming and going on flights? It's a bit mad.

[Oldschool]

If 1.5% of cases are due to travel then how is the UK (Kent I believe) strain accounting for about 60-70% of cases? Yes initially its 1.5% but that seems to seed a whole lot eventually so why not look at quarantine hotels seems to work on some other islands. Technically I can't go past portobello bridge yet somehow a not insignificant number of people are coming and going on flights? It's a bit mad.

If the new strain doubles at a faster rate than the existing strain then the new strain will eventually become the dominant strain.
It has taken months for the UK strain to become the dominant strain which means it's not that much more infectious.
The people with the test information could give a very good indication as to the differences in infection rates between strains.

[The Doc]

The people with the test information could give a very good indication as to the differences in infection rates between strains.

They have - 60-70% more infectious

[Oldschool]

The people with the test information could give a very good indication as to the differences in infection rates between strains.

They have - 60-70% more infectious

Who is "They". Cillian De Gascun was very circumspect when asked about it. Moynagh said seasonal factors were a factor in infection rates
Also if it was that much more infectious it would have become dominant a lot quicker.
It was (or is suspected to have been) in the UK in September and if that is the case it's likely that it wasn't too long after that it arrived here.

[Peg Leg]

If 1.5% of cases are due to travel then how is the UK (Kent I believe) strain accounting for about 60-70% of cases? Yes initially its 1.5% but that seems to seed a whole lot eventually so why not look at quarantine hotels seems to work on some other islands. Technically I can't go past portobello bridge yet somehow a not insignificant number of people are coming and going on flights? It's a bit mad.

It has taken months for the UK strain to become the dominant strain which means it's not that much more infectious.

The country is mid lockdown, you can't keep looking at the stats and have it only inform one side of the narrative. It not spreading could be the positive sign that the measures the government is enforcing are somewhat successful.

There is a good story about WWII era mathematician Abraham Wald working with a team who were analysing the bullet holes of returning fighter planes to assess where reinforcement was required most. The original theory was to asses where planes were hit most and use that to inform where should be reinforced.
Abraham proposed that perhaps the sample data proved the exact opposite of their previous conclusion. That in fact, the reason these planes were retuning was because the bullet holes were in areas not requiring reinforcement. The planes that did not return were likely to have been hit elsewhere and that is where the reinforcement should be applied.

[heno]

The 1.5% are the number of people that have caught the virus before or during the journey to enter the country. They give it to x number of people here. They give it to y, etc etc. X and y are put down as community transmission. But if you stopped the person coming in (or properly quarantined them) you don't just stop their case, but x and y also, ie a lot more than just the 1.5%.

So the people who are agitating about the border controls are doing so not because of the 1.5%. Its because they can see what's happened the 2 times we have opened up with the Spanish strain and now the English strain.

We have 3 choices when we get the numbers down
1) the previous plan to give guidelines and hope for the best - has failed twice
2) stay in heavy lockdown until we are all vaccinated - will likely take the whole of this year given the delays
3) sort out the border controls - will take time, money and effort. But still seems better than the other 2

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

[The Doc]

Who is "They"

Your posts are just a list of questions - you seem to do a lot of "I'm just asking questions" and have others do the work for you.

"They" are the "UK New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group" (NERVTAG) - they reported on 18th Dec that the new variant had a tranmission rate 71% higher than the original (with 95% confidence level). It was reported in The Lancet and BMJ

The spread has taken a month or so to spread becasue it was intially limited to a small part of the South East and with restrictions takes time to spread. The new strain is becoming the dominant one in new cases in the UK (to answer yet another of your questions) - in mid-December the new strain was 2/3rds of cases in London but only 5% of cases in Manchester. By early January it was becoming the dominant strain in Northern England as well

[Oldschoolsocks]

Who is "They"

Your posts are just a list of questions - you seem to do a lot of "I'm just asking questions" and have others do the work for you.

"They" are the "UK New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group" (NERVTAG) - they reported on 18th Dec that the new variant had a tranmission rate 71% higher than the original (with 95% confidence level). It was reported in The Lancet and BMJ

The spread has taken a month or so to spread becasue it was intially limited to a small part of the South East and with restrictions takes time to spread. The new strain is becoming the dominant one in new cases in the UK (to answer yet another of your questions) - in mid-December the new strain was 2/3rds of cases in London but only 5% of cases in Manchester. By early January it was becoming the dominant strain in Northern England as well

I stopped answering his endless questions months ago. You’re wasting your time.

His assumptions are made with his answer in mind as in “this is how I think it should work” which is fine if you’re building a wall or a road or a bridge or even well known software, but profoundly dangerous when you’re dealing with an new virus where almost all outcomes are unknown.

[Oldschool]

Who is "They"

Your posts are just a list of questions - you seem to do a lot of "I'm just asking questions" and have others do the work for you.

"They" are the "UK New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group" (NERVTAG) - they reported on 18th Dec that the new variant had a tranmission rate 71% higher than the original (with 95% confidence level). It was reported in The Lancet and BMJ

The spread has taken a month or so to spread becasue it was intially limited to a small part of the South East and with restrictions takes time to spread. The new strain is becoming the dominant one in new cases in the UK (to answer yet another of your questions) - in mid-December the new strain was 2/3rds of cases in London but only 5% of cases in Manchester. By early January it was becoming the dominant strain in Northern England as well

I stopped answering his endless questions months ago. You’re wasting your time.

His assumptions are made with his answer in mind as in “this is how I think it should work” which is fine if you’re building a wall or a road or a bridge or even well known software, but profoundly dangerous when you’re dealing with an new virus where almost all outcomes are unknown.

So don't consider how it might work and don't test your theories/conclusions.
Typical stick your head in the sand approach from you.
Like here's a thought for you to consider.
If (as seems very likely or is the case) the UK variant is more infectious than the existing variant then it seems appropriate that TaT resources should be focused on TaTing close contacts of cases with the UK variant.

[Ruckedtobits]

The report that the latest vaccine produced by Novavax is significantly less effective against the SA variant is worrying.

The trial results of the Novavax product appear very promising overall and their specific trial of the UK variant is very beneficial as it appears their vaccination have good efficacy against this strain.

However, an effective rate of less than 60% against the SA variant suggests that this mutation maybe more divergent than first thought.

Let's hope that the scientists can figure out an alternative vaccination.

[Oldschool]

Men should be prioritized for the vaccine because of potential existential side effects of COVID.
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/202 ... -fertility

[Peg Leg]

This vaccine role out is proving very fjucking difficult (Particularly with the Pfizer Vac- because of the transport/cooling requirements). In my head, teams would rock up to a nursing home and have at it- vaccinate everyone, job done. It would appear that the average CV19 infection rate is somewhere between 50-70% (off the top of the head estimation based from someone involved in the programme) of residents, meaning the teams are arriving with the test results in tow and only able to vaccinate between 30-50% per visit.

[Oldschool]

Zero Covid strategy is pure nonsense.
There are loads of reasons why but take the practicalities involved.
Just a little example of why.
For the last month or the Gardai have had a road check on the Southern Cross road on the outskirts of Bray.
It's gone, why (another tiresome question, relax OSS, it's purely rhetorical)? Because they've being diverted to 5k border duty or Ports or Airports.
There are serious manpower resource issues all across the board and they are not fixable in the short to medium term.
You couldn't buy a nurse for love or money right now so it's make do.
As a result robbing Peter to pay Paul is happening a lot of the time. TaT was halted because of the run on the hospitals, nurse training too.
It's one thing for the politicians to act the ballocks they seem to think that that's their job.
But then you have the academics at it and you'd start to despair.
Listening to Claire Byrne this morning. Professor Scally wheeled out in support of zero.
On the border issue!
More deaths from COVID than over the period of the troubles.
Solution the politicians on both sides should get together, have a chat and problem solved.
Where has he been for the last 100 years.
If he thinks it's that easy, then he should volunteer his services. None of the Zero people have suggested anything that looks even half way viable.
Roisin Shortall avoided answering the question on TV and wasn't pressed on it as she should have been.
Does anyone doubt that at the back of the "border issue" is the fear (by the unionists) of a taking any action that would seem to encourage a United Ireland. I'll answer that one for you OSS - NO!
About the only suggestion that has been made that has any "sense?" to it is a double Ireland strategy.
Other countries are trotted out as examples
Taiwan is on a permannet war footing with China who threatened them again today.
Stopping COVID was an existential issue because had an epidemic broken out there, China would have sent in "help" to aid them.
NZ their nearest border is over a thousand miles away - At the end of the World is a very good description.
South Korean - Effectively has no land border so it's an Island with no internal land borders.
How about these guys coming up with a viable example that we could consider copying.
They haven't because there isn't one.

[Oldschool]

This vaccine role out is proving very fjucking difficult (Particularly with the Pfizer Vac- because of the transport/cooling requirements). In my head, teams would rock up to a nursing home and have at it- vaccinate everyone, job done. It would appear that the average CV19 infection rate is somewhere between 50-70% (off the top of the head estimation based from someone involved in the programme) of residents, meaning the teams are arriving with the test results in tow and only able to vaccinate between 30-50% per visit.

You would have to have a lot of sympathy for anyone involved with this.
The AS vaccine might have made it easier but then it seems that it might not be authorized for use for this group.
AS were very late applying to the EMA for authorization, you'd wonder was that a deliberate ploy because they were having production problems.
It's also going to be interesting to see how/where the AS vaccine will be used. Hit 55 to 66 and medically vulnerable groups first and then it's time for a sectoral approach perhaps. Lorry drivers traveling to France come to mind given the bureaucratic nightmare that could be.

[Peg Leg]

This vaccine role out is proving very fjucking difficult (Particularly with the Pfizer Vac- because of the transport/cooling requirements). In my head, teams would rock up to a nursing home and have at it- vaccinate everyone, job done. It would appear that the average CV19 infection rate is somewhere between 50-70% (off the top of the head estimation based from someone involved in the programme) of residents, meaning the teams are arriving with the test results in tow and only able to vaccinate between 30-50% per visit.

You would have to have a lot of sympathy for anyone involved with this.
The AS vaccine might have made it easier but then it seems that it might not be authorized for use for this group.
AS were very late applying to the EMA for authorization, you'd wonder was that a deliberate ploy because they were having production problems.
It's also going to be interesting to see how/where the AS vaccine will be used. Hit 55 to 66 and medically vulnerable groups first and then it's time for a sectoral approach perhaps. Lorry drivers traveling to France come to mind given the bureaucratic nightmare that could be.

The teachers are murmuring about getting 15-24 year olds done asap because they are the most likely to spread it
FFS

[Peg Leg]

Zero Covid strategy is pure nonsense.
There are loads of reasons why but take the practicalities involved.
Just a little example of why.
For the last month or the Gardai have had a road check on the Southern Cross road on the outskirts of Bray.
It's gone, why (another tiresome question, relax OSS, it's purely rhetorical)? Because they've being diverted to 5k border duty or Ports or Airports.
There are serious manpower resource issues all across the board and they are not fixable in the short to medium term.
You couldn't buy a nurse for love or money right now so it's make do.
As a result robbing Peter to pay Paul is happening a lot of the time. TaT was halted because of the run on the hospitals, nurse training too.
It's one thing for the politicians to act the ballocks they seem to think that that's their job.
But then you have the academics at it and you'd start to despair.
Listening to Claire Byrne this morning. Professor Scally wheeled out in support of zero.
On the border issue!
More deaths from COVID than over the period of the troubles.
Solution the politicians on both sides should get together, have a chat and problem solved.
Where has he been for the last 100 years.
If he thinks it's that easy, then he should volunteer his services. None of the Zero people have suggested anything that looks even half way viable.
Roisin Shortall avoided answering the question on TV and wasn't pressed on it as she should have been.
Does anyone doubt that at the back of the "border issue" is the fear (by the unionists) of a taking any action that would seem to encourage a United Ireland. I'll answer that one for you OSS - NO!
About the only suggestion that has been made that has any "sense?" to it is a double Ireland strategy.
Other countries are trotted out as examples
Taiwan is on a permannet war footing with China who threatened them again today.
Stopping COVID was an existential issue because had an epidemic broken out there, China would have sent in "help" to aid them.
NZ their nearest border is over a thousand miles away - At the end of the World is a very good description.
South Korean - Effectively has no land border so it's an Island with no internal land borders.
How about these guys coming up with a viable example that we could consider copying.
They haven't because there isn't one.

I'm not one who does not appreciate your posts on here although some of them are batshit crazy shot blasts of the mind. And I like the open ended/leading questions too, but do you absolutely positively have to hit [return] after every thought/sentence?

[Oldschool]

This vaccine role out is proving very fjucking difficult (Particularly with the Pfizer Vac- because of the transport/cooling requirements). In my head, teams would rock up to a nursing home and have at it- vaccinate everyone, job done. It would appear that the average CV19 infection rate is somewhere between 50-70% (off the top of the head estimation based from someone involved in the programme) of residents, meaning the teams are arriving with the test results in tow and only able to vaccinate between 30-50% per visit.

You would have to have a lot of sympathy for anyone involved with this.
The AS vaccine might have made it easier but then it seems that it might not be authorized for use for this group.
AS were very late applying to the EMA for authorization, you'd wonder was that a deliberate ploy because they were having production problems.
It's also going to be interesting to see how/where the AS vaccine will be used. Hit 55 to 66 and medically vulnerable groups first and then it's time for a sectoral approach perhaps. Lorry drivers traveling to France come to mind given the bureaucratic nightmare that could be.

The teachers are murmuring about getting 15-24 year olds done asap because they are the most likely to spread it
FFS

+1
Anyway would make more sense to innoculate the teachers, which is exactly the conclusion the teachers are hoping the government will come to.
Update - The vaccine has been approved for 18+ only so that's the teachers murmurings stifled.

[Ruckedtobits]

Some good news from British researchers about the AZ vaccine:

a) The AstraZenaca vaccine retains high efficacy in protecting against the virus for at least three months after the initial jab; and

b) A benefit not originally claimed for the AZ vaccine is that, two weeks after the initial jab, the vaccinated individual has a dramatically reduced capacity to transmit the virus. Precisely how much less transmission is unclear as yet (more research time required) but thus far the estimated reduction is c. 60%.

The bad news for the AZ company is that French Medicine regulators, like their German counterparts, have not approved the vaccine from the Anglo-Swedish company, for over 65s.

No vaccine has yet been trialled and approved from either a French or a German pharmaceutical company.