Corona Virus

[Peg Leg]

From WHO

Worth the 5 mins https://youtu.be/mOV1aBVYKGA

[Peg Leg]

WHO 25/02/2020

Situation report #36

[Logorrhea]

Pretty handy Reddit thread for those looking to keep an eye on it.

https://www.reddit.com/live/14d816ty1ylvo/

[Ruckedtobits]

130 -150 people die in Ireland every year from influenza, for which there is an annual vaccination available. If the Goverment announced that admission to every major Sport match (say more than 5,000 spectators) should be cancelled unless every fan attending could produce a certificate of vaccination, would this be acceptable policy decision?

Life is increasingly complex with weather and medical threats which impact on normal life. However, we are in danger of allowing mass hysteria to outweight common sense in response to the compelling urges of expert groups to be seen to take 'important' decisions in the 'public interest'.

Let's develop a better balance in the national interest in making and taking decisions affectiing large parts of our daily life.

[Peg Leg]

130 -150 people die in Ireland every year from influenza, for which there is an annual vaccination available. If the Goverment announced that admission to every major Sport match (say more than 5,000 spectators) should be cancelled unless every fan attending could produce a certificate of vaccination, would this be acceptable policy decision?

Life is increasingly complex with weather and medical threats which impact on normal life. However, we are in danger of allowing mass hysteria to outweight common sense in response to the compelling urges of expert groups to be seen to take 'important' decisions in the 'public interest'.

Let's develop a better balance in the national interest in making and taking decisions affectiing large parts of our daily life.

The answer to your comment above is in your comment- "for which there is an annual vaccination available"
There is none for coronavirus. Complexity or other, there is absolutely no need to invite risk into normal life. There is a need to consider herd immunity and herd exposure without. Paddyor of this parish sent me a gif of the mayor in Jaws arguing the need to keep the beach open, in jest yesterday. I think it's quite an apt comparison.

Influenza treatment is slowly losing effectiveness as each strain returns/develops and is one of the great existential risks.

[The Doc]

130 -150 people die in Ireland every year from influenza, for which there is an annual vaccination available. If the Goverment announced that admission to every major Sport match (say more than 5,000 spectators) should be cancelled unless every fan attending could produce a certificate of vaccination, would this be acceptable policy decision?

Life is increasingly complex with weather and medical threats which impact on normal life. However, we are in danger of allowing mass hysteria to outweight common sense in response to the compelling urges of expert groups to be seen to take 'important' decisions in the 'public interest'.

Let's develop a better balance in the national interest in making and taking decisions affectiing large parts of our daily life.

It's true that flu s more prevelant and appears every year. But the mortality rate is much higher with coronavirus - approx 20 times higher. It is also significantly higher than other viruses that have jumped species to humans (e.g. SARS). The infection levels have far exceed SARS already. And then the incubation period is a lot longer than for flu or other vial diseaes. So the combination of 2 to 3 week infectious periods along with higher mortaltiy rates mean this is not the same as annual flu.

I don't think you have appreciated the speed the virus has spread or the rate at which deaths are happening - it's not hysteria (though the question of the Italy game is another one if people are being allowed to travel here anyway - seems odd). This has the potential to turn into a large scale halt on most travel

[jimbobjoe]

130 -150 people die in Ireland every year from influenza, for which there is an annual vaccination available. If the Goverment announced that admission to every major Sport match (say more than 5,000 spectators) should be cancelled unless every fan attending could produce a certificate of vaccination, would this be acceptable policy decision?

Life is increasingly complex with weather and medical threats which impact on normal life. However, we are in danger of allowing mass hysteria to outweight common sense in response to the compelling urges of expert groups to be seen to take 'important' decisions in the 'public interest'.

Let's develop a better balance in the national interest in making and taking decisions affectiing large parts of our daily life.

The answer to your comment above is in your comment- "for which there is an annual vaccination available"
There is none for coronavirus. Complexity or other, there is absolutely no need to invite risk into normal life. There is a need to consider herd immunity and herd exposure without. Paddyor of this parish sent me a gif of the mayor in Jaws arguing the need to keep the beach open, in jest yesterday. I think it's quite an apt comparison.

Influenza treatment is slowly losing effectiveness as each strain returns/develops and is one of the great existential risks.

Didn't you post a recommendation for the End of the World podcast a while back? Definitely worth another listen of the diseases episode (or was it Biotechnology?) where he talks about unknown strains of flu, and the history of outbreaks. Helps with the understanding as to why this needs to be taken seriously.

[FLIP]

In theory at the sign of any infectious disease that does not require medical attention (cold and flu for example) we should self isolate.

The reality is that coming into work sick isn't frowned upon enough, and any sensible company should realise that forcing sick employees to work will result in an overall drop in productivity beyond the loss of one employee. But most aren't sensible.

Governments forcing isolation following medical advice is a good thing. Governments forcing isolation based on fear is not.

[paddyor]

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6
Map with tracker

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Is the virus itself any worse than a "normal" flu? Forgive the basic question but anything I've read seems to indicate that it isn't but is the usual cough, fever etc.

In other words, is it the spread of it to people who are more vulnerable that is the worry more than it being a serious illness for most people?

I'm not playing it down when I say that btw.

[kermischocolate]

Is the virus itself any worse than a "normal" flu? Forgive the basic question but anything I've read seems to indicate that it isn't but is the usual cough, fever etc.

In other words, is it the spread of it to people who are more vulnerable that is the worry more than it being a serious illness for most people?

I'm not playing it down when I say that btw.

Yes. It's more virulent, spread easier and deadlier. So most people who have it will be fine. But they will pass it (probably without knowing) to those who won't.

[Peg Leg]

Is the virus itself any worse than a "normal" flu? Forgive the basic question but anything I've read seems to indicate that it isn't but is the usual cough, fever etc.

In other words, is it the spread of it to people who are more vulnerable that is the worry more than it being a serious illness for most people?

I'm not playing it down when I say that btw.

The influenza kills about 80000 p/a. As a percentage of persons actually infected (26.1m) that is a much lower mortality than Coronavirus. 0.003 compared to (2615 deaths from 81729) 0.03.

[Peg Leg]

Obviously that doesn't take any vaccines into account

[Logorrhea]

A lot of people with compromised immune systems are protected from the common flu by the vaccine, yet we still see people die from it. Those same people are not protected from this strain, and by all accounts this is a lot nastier, so for them, this could be lethal.

[paddyor]

Is the virus itself any worse than a "normal" flu? Forgive the basic question but anything I've read seems to indicate that it isn't but is the usual cough, fever etc.

In other words, is it the spread of it to people who are more vulnerable that is the worry more than it being a serious illness for most people?

I'm not playing it down when I say that btw.

It has a mortality rate similar to Spanish flu which killed about +20m out of 500m infected. Caused massive economic disruption.

[bertlim]

Is the virus itself any worse than a "normal" flu? Forgive the basic question but anything I've read seems to indicate that it isn't but is the usual cough, fever etc.

In other words, is it the spread of it to people who are more vulnerable that is the worry more than it being a serious illness for most people?

I'm not playing it down when I say that btw.

It has a mortality rate similar to Spanish flu which killed about +20m out of 500m infected. Caused massive economic disruption.

Critically, it has a higher r0 rate than the spanish flu - i.e. if left untreated, the number of people the carrier will pass the virus on to is higher, spreading the disease further.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Thanks for the replies!

[blockhead]

It's here now. In the east, some lad who was skiing in Italy. My local Lidl was sold out of rice today, pasta nearly gone too!

[Oldschool]

One would have to be thinking that the situation in Northern Italy is out of control.
The number of cases, arising in other European countries, that have originated in Italy is very significant.
It's a fair bet that Italy is being economical with the truth.
The truth is a very important weapon in situations like this. People need to know enough to -
A. Protect themselves.
B. Satisfy their curiosity.
Our own authorities started off on the wrong foot by refusing initially to state the gender of the NI case.
It's not important to know what the gender is but it's one of the first things that comes to mind.
So why not just satisfy that curiosity instead of leaving the paranoid amongst us to "Wonder what else are they not telling us.
On the stock piling thingee, it's surely wise to visit a shop once a fortnight and minimise exposure rather than a couple of times a week.
Stock up on the hand sanitizer gel btw, those trolley handles ain't too clean.
Wall Mart and their ilk provide sanitizer wipes at the entrance to all their shops for wiping their trolley handles. The much maligned and sneered at, yanks arr already a step a head of us, no thanks to Donald (or despite him) you'll be glad to hear.

[Logorrhea]

Our own authorities started off on the wrong foot by refusing initially to state the gender of the NI case.
It's not important to know what the gender is but it's one of the first things that comes to mind.

ffs man. use your head for a second would you.
You know you have neither the right, nor the need to know. So why raise it and why use it to question the governments approach to what is an impossible task.

Wait for them to actually f*ck up before undermining them and going after them.