Corona Virus

[Oldschool]

40 million Americans filed for unemployment during the pandemic, but billionaires saw their net worth increase by half a trillion dollars.

Not sure where the benefit to humanity is in any of that tbh OS

What's your point. The existence of billionaires is unethical
What are your solutions. I have no clue how to unfurl the ball of barbed wire that is the current system. I think the first thing I would look at is the media and its ownership network/structure
What do you think is going on even. https://inequality.org/facts/global-inequality/

You need to direct your concerns at somebody who can address/fix them.
Joining a political party might be a first step if you are looking at trying to influence change.
On the existence of billionaires just as a practical case. How exactly would you have prevented Bill Gates from becoming a Billionaire.
What you might be up against is the best legal brains in the world who will know constitutional law inside out etc etc etc.
Not to mention all the other laws. Who knew what Bill Gates' Microsoft was going to become even?
You might also want to consider - are billionaires just convenient windmills and are there much bigger issues out there like the people in charge of Zimbabwe as one obvious example. Who's doing more damage?
But you have to start somewhere and that focus should be on more local matters like how to get more bang for our tax buck or Euro if you prefer.
The answer to what is going on is a lot simpler than that link you posted btw - It's called greed mostly and in some instances begrudgery,
"Ask not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country" is still one of the greatest quotes of all time and still very pertinent today.

[Peg Leg]

What's your point. The existence of billionaires is unethical
What are your solutions. I have no clue how to unfurl the ball of barbed wire that is the current system. I think the first thing I would look at is the media and its ownership network/structure
What do you think is going on even. https://inequality.org/facts/global-inequality/

You need to direct your concerns at somebody who can address/fix them.

Dear 1%...
Thanks for never, not responding OS, even when I am just venting. I will likely keep clutching to my moral high ground by staying true to my ideals of helping others when I can, support my family and community all the while being an active participant in chasing the big bucket of gold at the end of a capitalist rainbow.

[Peg Leg]

Back on topic:
As Paddyor posited "... the disease was more prevalent in March/April but we were less on the trail of the disease than we are now."

I tend to agree, I'm surrounded by it at the moment (4 known positives) as we likely were back then but testing wasn't available or you needed two symptoms.

[Oldschool]

You need to direct your concerns at somebody who can address/fix them.

Dear 1%...
Thanks for never, not responding OS, even when I am just venting. I will likely keep clutching to my moral high ground by staying true to my ideals of helping others when I can, support my family and community all the while being an active participant in chasing the big bucket of gold at the end of a capitalist rainbow.

Dear Peg Leg,

Thank you for your message regarding your concerns for your fellow citizens.
We are currently receiving an exceptionally high level of traffic on this issue so be assured that you are not alone and we hope this brings you some comfort.
In the meantime we are busy trying to make our next billion and would simply wish you all the best in your own endeavours.

Regards,
1%...
PS please convey our thanks to OS for all his efforts but advise him that he needs to up his game.

[Oldschool]

Did Meath really have 186 cases today, up from "only" 38 yesterday?

[paddyor]

Did Meath really have 186 cases today, up from "only" 38 yesterday?

Ratoath won the county championship Sunday before last and a 3 day bender ensued. Same in Kingsocurt, Killeshandra, Kilnaleck and Moycullen. Those are the ones I know of. It turns out people who have to work in between playing are very strong vectors for the disease.

[paddyor]

On the transfer of wealth (debt), the devil is in the detail.
just listening to RTE, personal savings in Ireland have risen by 11bn this year a lot more than an average year I imagine.
Some of those savings are due to government handouts, some are due to literally not being able to spend income other on necessities during the lockdown period and some are due to people tightening their belts to build up a bit of a buffer.
Some of the savings may even be transient, deferred rents and mortgage repayments perhaps (the so called holiday)
I don't fully understand how the financial markets work and in particular the money lending side of it.
But if you borrow money and spend it on consumption and not on investment then that's the rocky road.
The wealthy get richer either way and the consumer gets poorer if the consumption is based on debt.
So some of the poverty is caused by personal bad choices.
Some of the wealth is pure luck. Bill Gates and Microsoft but the benefit to everyone has been huge.

40 million Americans filed for unemployment during the pandemic, but billionaires saw their net worth increase by half a trillion dollars.

Not sure where the benefit to humanity is in any of that tbh OS

If you lump off 20% of the economies cash generating units the remaining 80% will go up in value if you avoid a total crash/depression. This happened because of the CARES act which was a masterpiece in state intervention and probably the gold in terms of business supports. The alternative, is for those assets to lose value because of a depression and death spiral.

[John23]

Did Meath really have 186 cases today, up from "only" 38 yesterday?

Ratoath won the county championship Sunday before last and a 3 day bender ensued. Same in Kingsocurt, Killeshandra, Kilnaleck and Moycullen. Those are the ones I know of. It turns out people who have to work in between playing are very strong vectors for the disease.

As a result of the Ratoath GAA cluster its my understanding the virus has made its way into a high profile work place in the capital.

[Oldschool]

So Rathoath.
Let's narrow that down a bit based on the few clues PR has given us.
1. Rathoath being the winners wete definitely celebrating.
2. Their opponents were drowning their sorrows.
3. Who is a strong vector is a great clue because that tends to narrow it down to the two teams.
4. Works in Dublin.
5. With high profile company/institution.

Well now if you were a tracker tracer where would you start
Get a list of the teams.
Contact and ask them to do test as a priority because they are potential spreaders.
Ask them where they work.
Have they been in work.
Do they have the tracker app.
Who have they been in contact with.
Can they isolate for the next 48 hours until the test results come back.
What the tracker doesn't know, perhaps, unless he lurks around here is that one of his suspects works for a high profile entity in Dublin.
But he might realise it when he asks the all important question - where do you work or looks at the list of names on the NPHET team sheet for example.
In fact the TaTs may well have some access to that sort of info.
Come on PR don't make us have to work for our corn.

[paddyor]

https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_fir ... 265892.pdf

New IFR estimated at 0.23%. If 70% of us caught it that's 8k dead over 1-2 years(it would take 1-2 years to infect 70% of people). Increasingly feel like we've over reacted(which was the correct coiurse at the beginning.

[fourthirtythree]

We have no idea of the long term effects and how much they will cost us in the long run and we won't for a long time. Early indications are that they are many and various and probably really expensive and effecting young people, possibly even asymptomatic, and possibly posing q burden on the health system for decades. We also don't know how long any immunity obtained through surviving infection lasts. The bad early signs are not necessarily very long at all. Don't tend to with Coronaviruses (SARS, colds).

Economic research on the 18/19 flu pandemic suggests that areas that closed down hard, masked, and eliminated (remember this was when germ theory was new, let alone viruses) recovered quicker and better. Those that didn't recovered slower if at all.

That's just the economics. The ethics of experimenting on whole populations in an utterly unscientific attempt at herd immunity, should be an unthinkable hard sell. And there is no science on herd immunity on a population with this even if some scientists believe in a controversy, it is without them making a scientific argument.

[Ruckedtobits]

'Herd immunity' in a pandemic is a theoretical concept cited in the aftermath of an outbreak as to why incidence of disease has fallen to near zero. According to WHO, there is no recorded incidence of 'herd immunity' being implemented, in history, in a community wide infectious outbreak of disease, i.e. the theory only works in a 'closed community' setting.

[TerenureJim]

'Herd immunity' in a pandemic is a theoretical concept cited in the aftermath of an outbreak as to why incidence of disease has fallen to near zero. According to WHO, there is no recorded incidence of 'herd immunity' being implemented, in history, in a community wide infectious outbreak of disease, i.e. the theory only works in a 'closed community' setting.

It's a bold theory, not saying I agree with it, guess seems to be what Sweden did so wonder how it'll work out and only maybe we'll know 5-10 years down the line.

That said if 80% of people have little to no symptoms if you had a controlled way of knowing who those 80% of people were, and were sure that the virus would have no long term effects that live with you even if you're asymptomatic (a great unknown), and could identify and protect the 20% you could in theory get to herd immunity and get back to normal.

Granted you'd need to be North Korea to achieve this.

Maybe everyone 18-45 without any underlying medical conditions should be called forward for national service where you get infected spend two weeks isolated at your local army barracks emerge with antibodies and slowly you'd hit that marker where sufficient population has gone through it so that it's no longer spreading freely.

Sounds mad but then so is having inter county and club GAA when you can't go for a coffee at your moms or socialise a toddler at play dates.

[Oldschool]

The biggest problem this country faces at the moment is the lack of flexibility in our approach.
This is being driven in the main by NPHET.
Their utterances are undermining the governments ability to be flexible.
NPHET have consistently ignored the science and are still giving guidance based on science that is at least 6 months old. (Even still the advice on wearing masks is wishy washy - Exhibit A - they still don't wear masks into the press conference.
I know you are all probably saying broken record and I don't blame you but these guys have a major say in how we deal with COVID, they are part of the leadership structure and they aren't showing leadership.
NPHET are being extremely tight with the information been given to the public.
Need to know basis where the approach is their need for us not to know. "One case in the East of the country" attitude sums it up.
It's worth looking up Tony Holohan on wiki. In particular his advice to Harris regarding cervical check. Close ranks.

TaT is a useful tool but can very easily become a waste of resources. It needs to be much more focused.
Leo, yesterday, took the first steps towards admitting that TaT has its' limitations when the numbers are too high.

Herd immunity - I would have been and still am in the herd immunity camp but not in a gung ho way.
Any attempt to go this route has to be carefully look at, thought through in detail.
A mini manhatton project where Ireland's being an Island is a huge advantage.
The people heading this up would specifically not involve the DOH or NPHET or HSE in the lead role.
Expertise right across the board should be used.
Even if a decision is made not to proceed an awfully of useful knowledge will have been garnered.
The obvious one being the proper identification of pressure points.

As 433 pointed there are a lot of unknowns not least that if vaccines are developed there will be risks associated.
Those risks may not be realized, hopefully.
There are no guarantees, there never are.

So NPHET et al need to stop the scaremongering and try to be more inclusive. The closed minds need to be opened.
Trust works both ways. Trust me, why, what have you done to earn my trust?

[heno]

For those talking about herd immunity :

Genomic evidence for reinfection with SARS-CoV-2: a case study

Findings
The patient had two positive tests for SARS-CoV-2, the first on April 18, 2020, and the second on June 5, 2020, separated by two negative tests done during follow-up in May, 2020. Genomic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 showed genetically significant differences between each variant associated with each instance of infection. The second infection was symptomatically more severe than the first.

Interpretation
Genetic discordance of the two SARS-CoV-2 specimens was greater than could be accounted for by short-term in vivo evolution. These findings suggest that the patient was infected by SARS-CoV-2 on two separate occasions by a genetically distinct virus. Thus, previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 might not guarantee total immunity in all cases. All individuals, whether previously diagnosed with COVID-19 or not, should take identical precautions to avoid infection with SARS-CoV-2. The implications of reinfections could be relevant for vaccine development and application.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... 7/fulltext



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[Laighin Break]

Sounds mad but then so is having inter county and club GAA when you can't go for a coffee at your moms or socialise a toddler at play dates.

The GAA suspended all club leagues and championships last week.
Only inter county games are going ahead - is that any madder than having Pro14, Heinken Cup and international rugby games?

[Oldschool]

For those talking about herd immunity :

Genomic evidence for reinfection with SARS-CoV-2: a case study

Findings
The patient had two positive tests for SARS-CoV-2, the first on April 18, 2020, and the second on June 5, 2020, separated by two negative tests done during follow-up in May, 2020. Genomic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 showed genetically significant differences between each variant associated with each instance of infection. The second infection was symptomatically more severe than the first.

Interpretation
Genetic discordance of the two SARS-CoV-2 specimens was greater than could be accounted for by short-term in vivo evolution. These findings suggest that the patient was infected by SARS-CoV-2 on two separate occasions by a genetically distinct virus. Thus, previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 might not guarantee total immunity in all cases. All individuals, whether previously diagnosed with COVID-19 or not, should take identical precautions to avoid infection with SARS-CoV-2. The implications of reinfections could be relevant for vaccine development and application.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... 7/fulltext



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This could obviously have a major impact on any plan for Herd Immunity.
Is there any information as to whether or not the vaccines currently on trial can address both strains given that the fact that there are at least two strains has been known for quite a while, as far back as March or earlier even IIRC?

[paddyor]

'Herd immunity' in a pandemic is a theoretical concept cited in the aftermath of an outbreak as to why incidence of disease has fallen to near zero. According to WHO, there is no recorded incidence of 'herd immunity' being implemented, in history, in a community wide infectious outbreak of disease, i.e. the theory only works in a 'closed community' setting.

Yeah it was an outcome that the scientism stans(Cummings) in the Tory govt thought they could turn into a strategy. Spectactularly stupid as it become clear cocooning the vulnerable was really hard and the virus spreads too slowly to make it worthwhile. Some amount of waffle was wrote about all the same. There was one piece/tweet thread about hero hotels where young people would voluntarily be infected and quarantined to accelerate the process. Even if every healthy person volunteered, this owuld have taken about 2-3 years.

[paddyor]

For those talking about herd immunity :

Genomic evidence for reinfection with SARS-CoV-2: a case study

Findings
The patient had two positive tests for SARS-CoV-2, the first on April 18, 2020, and the second on June 5, 2020, separated by two negative tests done during follow-up in May, 2020. Genomic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 showed genetically significant differences between each variant associated with each instance of infection. The second infection was symptomatically more severe than the first.

Interpretation
Genetic discordance of the two SARS-CoV-2 specimens was greater than could be accounted for by short-term in vivo evolution. These findings suggest that the patient was infected by SARS-CoV-2 on two separate occasions by a genetically distinct virus. Thus, previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 might not guarantee total immunity in all cases. All individuals, whether previously diagnosed with COVID-19 or not, should take identical precautions to avoid infection with SARS-CoV-2. The implications of reinfections could be relevant for vaccine development and application.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... 7/fulltext



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This could obviously have a major impact on any plan for Herd Immunity.
Is there any information as to whether or not the vaccines currently on trial can address both strains given that the fact that there are at least two strains has been known for quite a while, as far back as March or earlier even IIRC?

It probably won't. Reinfection happens but it's rare with a lot of these viruses.

[Oldschool]

Have to say. NPHET are blowing it out their holes here.
Based on current testing levels (this has to be an approximation) the equivalent number of confirmed cases back in March would have been about 250, ie a quarter of current cases, if even because we were only testing mostly symptomatic cases back then and it's likely TaT was only being targeted at hospital staff in the main.
It's actually too early to say if Level 3 is working but the trajectory is slowing.
If Level 3 doesn't stop the rise in the number of cases then somewhere between Levels 3 and 4 should do.
The cases entering hospital also appear to be leveling off. Quite frankly there has been some fudging on this in the last number of days in an attempt to talk up the trajectory. The facts do not back this up. ICU numbers have been at 30ish for the last 5/6 days. Cases were 240 3 days ago compared to 244 today.
Just looking at those numbers, the government isn't going anywhere near Level 5 for the moment.
Politically however we might see one or two more counties at Level 4 and some Level 3+ tweaks (which we've already seen with visitation rights being curtailed). Off license (including supermarkets etc) sales might see some curtailment for instance.