Corona Virus

[paddyor]

Meanwhile, the HSE has secured a deal with a laboratory in Germany to help clear the backlog of about 15,000 Covid-19 swabs that have already been taken but were awaiting laboratory analysis.

Several thousand of those swabs have already been flown to Germany and it is expected the backlog will be cleared in about ten days.

FWIW lads.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/202 ... -19-fight/

[Oldschool]

Quiet day, what's new?
Don't know about anyone else but I've worn a mask anytime I've been out since at least a month ago.
Despite statements that this would make no difference I disagreed and still do.
The BCG looks like it could be good news for most of us.
It's no longer given automatically and you'd have to wonder why.
Before CV19 there's a lot of evidence to suggest that this vaccination should still be administered and not just to specific groups.
Stay safe and as Joe would say "wash your hands".
Does anyone know?
Does already having the pneumonia vaccine give any resistance against the symptoms of CV19, in particular lung infections.
Thanks in advance.

[heno]

The BCG looks like it could be good news for most of us.
It's no longer given automatically and you'd have to wonder why.

My understanding is stocks went low, price went up, and nations with low rates of tb asked themselves is this giving good value for money considering where else we could spend it.

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[Ruckedtobits]

The BCG looks like it could be good news for most of us.
It's no longer given automatically and you'd have to wonder why.

My understanding is stocks went low, price went up, and nations with low rates of tb asked themselves is this giving good value for money considering where else we could spend it.

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Exactly this. Ireland abandoned automatic innoculation of all new births in 2015.

Portugal continue with full population immunisation.

Within Europe, the greatest Coronavirus contrast between countries bordering each other is shown by:

Deaths per 1m Population to midnight 5th April 2020
Portugal: 31 - total deaths: 311
Spain: 282. - total deaths: 13,170

Germany has continued with BCG, but there is no certainty that all of former East Germany received BCG throughout the 70s & 80s. Germany had 19 death per 1m population up to midnight 5th April.

Ireland had 32 deaths per 1m population to the same time & date, identical at that date, to Denmark & the USA. UK figure was 79 per 1m population.

Spain's figure was the highest across the world. Italy had 273 per 1m population. Spain has not had automatic BCG innoculation for several decades.

[Oldschool]

Still no sign of my or my wife's test results yet. Out of the house today (bar the day I drove to test centre) for first time in nearly 4 weeks. Went for walk away from everyone with my wife and the kids. Fresh air how I missed you.

Hope Mrs OSS is recovered.

Hope all the Peg legs have a quick and speedy return to health

I hope your brother is better Old School even if he did wind me up something fierce at your son's wedding

The bro is on the mend. His main problem now is he can't find any establishments open where he can celebrate and do a few card tricks.
They say it's hard to kill a bad thing so I'm hoping it's genetic.
Hope all are well.

[ronk]

Spain has not had automatic BCG innoculation for several decades.

Most of the deaths have been of people who were alive for several decades at least.

[heno]

Spain has not had automatic BCG innoculation for several decades.

Most of the deaths have been of people who were alive for several decades at least.

I think it's more that they introduced it late, 1965. So there will be a cohort who are now quite old and never got it. But it's all conjecture. The full truth will have a lot more contributing factors.

For info :
http://www.bcgatlas.org/

Also Ireland appeared to introduce it in 1937:
https://www.hse.ie/eng/health/immunisat ... story.html

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[kermischocolate]

Why would bcg have any correlation to covid 19?

[Jackie Brown]

Why would bcg have any correlation to covid 19?

There was an interesting paper on it, the BCG vaccine helps to boost the immune system of the respiratory tract.

However,
The BCG is only believed to be effective for around 15Yrs before you need a booster.
Most people between 1953 and 2005 got it in the UK as a teenager, death rate here isn't particularly pleasing.

Read a study today that said that minimal transmission happens through contact with contaminated surfaces. The big driver is the fact people are most contagious before symptoms kick in and simply talking and breathing in close proximity to others spreads it.

Stay safe everyone, my brother is a doctor in the hospice, waiting on a call to join the front line. Ireland North and South seem to be flattening the curve though.

[Ruckedtobits]

One of the key indicators in the Republic is that the Test Results currently being published (500 new cases today - 9th April) are based on swabs of people who either had symptoms and were recommended by GPs or, are Healthcare staff and therefore high risk. The samples however were taken on various dates from 28th March to 8th April. Thus the pace of growth of positive results is still not reflecting the pace of growth of the virus across the population.

If we get to the target level of 10,000 tests per diem by 30th April with results within 72 hours, this will become a leading indicator for strategic action by the Emergency Committee. As yet that is not the case, unlike in Germany. The UK has an ever bigger problem in this regard as they need to get their daily tests & results close to 100,000 per diem to allow their test results to present as a lead indicator.

The death rate is a function of how many have the virus AND the efficacy of the treatment given to patients. Germany alone in (big) European countries seem to have a clear treatment programme which is constraining the death rate from the virus - despite the fact that Germany has a higher normal annual mortality rate than Italy, Spain or the UK.

Although the signs are more positive here, it is still about 3 weeks plus from being able to indicate whether our infection rate will overwhelm our treatment capacity.

[kermischocolate]

Why would bcg have any correlation to covid 19?

There was an interesting paper on it, the BCG vaccine helps to boost the immune system of the respiratory tract.

However,
The BCG is only believed to be effective for around 15Yrs before you need a booster.
Most people between 1953 and 2005 got it in the UK as a teenager, death rate here isn't particularly pleasing.

Read a study today that said that minimal transmission happens through contact with contaminated surfaces. The big driver is the fact people are most contagious before symptoms kick in and simply talking and breathing in close proximity to others spreads it.

Stay safe everyone, my brother is a doctor in the hospice, waiting on a call to join the front line. Ireland North and South seem to be flattening the curve though.

Interesting.

[paddyor]

Why would bcg have any correlation to covid 19?

There was an interesting paper on it, the BCG vaccine helps to boost the immune system of the respiratory tract.

However,
The BCG is only believed to be effective for around 15Yrs before you need a booster.
Most people between 1953 and 2005 got it in the UK as a teenager, death rate here isn't particularly pleasing.

Read a study today that said that minimal transmission happens through contact with contaminated surfaces. The big driver is the fact people are most contagious before symptoms kick in and simply talking and breathing in close proximity to others spreads it.

Stay safe everyone, my brother is a doctor in the hospice, waiting on a call to join the front line. Ireland North and South seem to be flattening the curve though.

Yes but that's partly to do with the guidelines for reducing face touching and cleaning your hands. If the molecules land on a surface and you pick them up on your hand they're no longer a risk to someone else who touches that surface. It's not bateria and won't spread across a surface and if you wash your hands properly after that then the risk is gone.

The HSE has said it's the 48 hrs before symptons kick in that's the mean contagion threat and you'd have to think they've a good idea now wth the contact tracing they've done.

[Oldschoolsocks]

i don't know paddy - and no reflection on you. Contact Tracing my big hairy left one.

Missus tested 16 days ago now - given the phone number of a lab to ring - phone wasn't answered for multiple gees, no option to leave a message.

Phone was finally answered response was - "oh yeah sure there's a three week wait for results now, call back middle of next week."

Going by twitter this is far from unique. It's a total fvkin shitshow if they. How are they going to tract contacts if there's a three week lag in getting results and does the missus need to self isolate until she gets a result or is it 5 days since last symptoms.

Plus if they keep prioritising Health Workers does this mean that the rest of the list keeps getting bounced out? because that's what it feels like.

If there's delays that's fair enough - but the communication about results being available within 14 days is clearly untrue and for some reason the truth is not being communicated. It's frustrating, dishonest and unethical. Ultimatey somebody or some team somewhere is deciding to not feed the true story up the line or to not transparently report the situation, and that is frankly sh!t.

[paddyor]

i don't know paddy - and no reflection on you. Contact Tracing my big hairy left one.

Missus tested 16 days ago now - given the phone number of a lab to ring - phone wasn't answered for multiple gees, no option to leave a message.

Phone was finally answered response was - "oh yeah sure there's a three week wait for results now, call back middle of next week."

Going by twitter this is far from unique. It's a total fvkin shitshow if they. How are they going to tract contacts if there's a three week lag in getting results and does the missus need to self isolate until she gets a result or is it 5 days since last symptoms.

Plus if they keep prioritising Health Workers does this mean that the rest of the list keeps getting bounced out? because that's what it feels like.

If there's delays that's fair enough - but the communication about results being available within 14 days is clearly untrue and for some reason the truth is not being communicated. It's frustrating, dishonest and unethical. Ultimatey somebody or some team somewhere is deciding to not feed the true story up the line or to not transparently report the situation, and that is frankly sh!t.

What I mean is. They tested heavily around known cases with contact tracing and of the inital 16k tests they did they had a hit rate of about 7% so from there they were able to theorize that you needed c15 mins close contact with a confirmed case in an enlcoesd space to be at risk. They were also able to guess that they needed to refine the selection criteria for testing from 1 sympton to 2 based on the hit rate.

Your wife won't be contacted traced unless she's positive and even then maybe not. (I know 1 confirmed case that hasn't even been sampled). Maybe they're prioritizing around HCWs and nursing homes I don't know. But the inital contact racing will have told them things about how infectious the disease is and where they're likely to find new cases.

I've said already I think they made a rod for their own back with the initial testing plan and yes the comms has been poor. even this evening the difference between the German positive cases and the new cases was a mess.

[Oldschoolsocks]

Cheers Paddy,

It more of a rant than anything else, but this “management of the message” is really hurting society’s faith in our social contract. It’s shite like this that’ll have the murdering b$&%@#ds shinners in office within 10 years in this country.

[ronk]

Ramping up testing is really hard. I have some sympathy for the government over that.

Other things are less forgivable. Cross transmission due to workers in vulnerable populations was neglected badly. Reorganising work schedules so workers were focusing on a single site would have made a huge difference and it should have started 2 weeks before they closed the schools. Instead it was happening well after they closed them.

[Oldschool]

Ramping up testing is really hard. I have some sympathy for the government over that.

Other things are less forgivable. Cross transmission due to workers in vulnerable populations was neglected badly. Reorganising work schedules so workers were focusing on a single site would have made a huge difference and it should have started 2 weeks before they closed the schools. Instead it was happening well after they closed them.

Fair comment.
Applying hindsight to the exit strategy.
1. Isolate or keep isolating the at risk.
2. Identify the first wave of foot soldiers.
Criteria here should be based on age and any other known or suspected +ve attributes
3. Tools for the job.
What does that mean.
Obviously a return to normality is going to take time.
Consider the criteria for identifying the first wave.
A. Age group 18 to 40
B. Single
C. Blood type O
D. No underlying or history of health issues.
E.
F.
People falling into the above group could quite safety be allowed back into circulation.
All going well the second wave could start after a ten day waiting period.

In addition an antibody test may be imminent.
This would be a game changer. Comments below are exclusive of the obvious prioritising of front line medical staff or staff at high risk of exposure eg Nursing home staff.
People like RP or my brother should be prioritized for antibody testing. If they test positive they should be allowed to get on with life.
This of course raises the issue of licence, fake license and so on.
This is the foresight bit that we should be preparing systems for this NOW.
Enough for now.
Except of course - If we have an antibody test available then we can/need to do that random sample to get a handle on just what % of the population is infected.
It's a lot more than the 8k obviously but just how much more. All age categories should be included in the sampling.

[Oldschool]

The BCG looks like it could be good news for most of us.
It's no longer given automatically and you'd have to wonder why.

My understanding is stocks went low, price went up, and nations with low rates of tb asked themselves is this giving good value for money considering where else we could spend it.

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Looks like they didn't ask themselves the right question/s and that's not just hindsight because the issues were raised years before CV19 arrived.

[Oldschool]

Cheers Paddy,

It more of a rant than anything else, but this “management of the message” is really hurting society’s faith in our social contract. It’s shite like this that’ll have the murdering b$&%@#ds shinners in office within 10 years in this country.

Somebody took umbrage at me when I raised this very issue at the start of this thread.
I'm left with the underwhelming thought that when this is all over and the Dail tries might and main to create a single tier system that the HSE will absolutely f^ck it up.
The two things I really want answers to are:-
Why is our Health system so poor given the amount of money spent annually on it. And I mean really WHY?
Where is the money going to come from? Who is going to create the wealth to generate that money.
I heard Boyd Barret suggesting that the banks are screwing the government by charging 0.5% interest for borrowed money. FFS.
More importantly does he and his ilk really think that the likes of Apple are going to continue to invest in Ireland if we start to stiff it to them for the tax that he thinks we are owed.
Donald Trump is gagging to get American Multi national jobs back onto American soil. is BB an agent for Trump?, we live in strange times.

[Oldschoolsocks]

Ramping up testing is really hard. I have some sympathy for the government over that.

Other things are less forgivable. Cross transmission due to workers in vulnerable populations was neglected badly. Reorganising work schedules so workers were focusing on a single site would have made a huge difference and it should have started 2 weeks before they closed the schools. Instead it was happening well after they closed them.

Nobody says that ramping up testing is easy, you know what is easy though - communications - that’s really easy.

We’re like mushrooms here.