The Economy (Super - Thread)

[leinster80]

Can you see Dublin Bus having a Single Fare Stage regime, and Fares at 50% off cash Fares for Card Holders. No. Neither can I. So we will still be subjected to the Bus Passenger that will rifle through their purses/pockets on boarding, holding the bus up and p*ssing off the rest of us who have cards. This is Dublin. We don't do eminently sensible, just an overly complicated version of 'Catch Up'.

Whilst in Rome at the weekend noticed that their Metro (OK so its only 2 lines the same as our LUAS) has one fare - €1 for 75 mins use. . very simple for anyone and everyone to understand (locals and tourists) - works for them so why not here ?

The zone system they use here in Denmark is excellent and the degree to which public transport penetrates the country is amazing. Also you can get back virtually the full price of your monthly travel expenses in tax relief at the end of the year - makes sense, don't want to charge people twice!!

[leinster80]

http://www.dylanhaskins.ie/

Has the best campaign video anyway.

[Dexter]

Recent document issued by the IMF on Ireland. Some might find the external view interesting.
There is very interesting table of economic indicators on the last page summarising the numbers behind the goverment completely destroying the economy in a short 5 years. Its also interesting to compare the immediate private sector reaction and adjustment to the economic enviroment compared to the public sector (consumption, savings, investments).

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr1147.pdf

[Armchair]

Nice to see some Banks have learned their lesson

NORTHERN ROCK TO OFFER 90% MORTGAGES - The Financial Times says that Northern Rock is poised to launch a range of mortgages offering up to 90% of a property's value, marking the nationalised bank's return to riskier lending three years after its collapse and government bail-out. The loss-making lender could make the new high loan-to-value mortgages available as early as Monday, according to people familiar with the plans, as it seeks to boost revenue ahead of a return to private ownership. Northern Rock's aggressive boom-time lending practices, including the Together mortgage that offered borrowers up to 125% of their property value, caused one of the most high-profile failures of the financial crisis. Since then it has restricted the loan to value it offers customers to 85%. The decision to increase this to 90% comes as Northern Rock looks to higher margin lending to drive up profitability and boost its attractiveness to buyers. Higher loan-to-value mortgages command greater margins due to the added risk of losses should house prices fall. While potentially more profitable, high loan-to-value lending is also more risky, particularly in the current climate where house prices are facing downward pressure. The lower amount of equity means there is a smaller buffer to soak up house price falls

[sheepshagger]

125 jobs to go as Birthdays chain closes

One hundred and twenty five jobs are set to go through the collapse of the Birthdays chain of greeting card shops around the country.

A provisional liquidator has been appointed to the 14 shop chain by the High Court.

The appointment was sought by the chain's UK owner Clinton Cards because of ongoing losses.

Among the locations of the chain's stores are Blanchardstown, Tallaght and Swords in Dublin, as well as Athlone, Limerick, Galway, and Clonmel.

It has been trading in Ireland since 1994,

The court heard that the Irish shops had been profitable up to 2007, but had since been 'haemorrhaging money"

After small losses in 2008-2009, the losses jumped last year to 1m euros.

Sales during the latest Christmas period had been down more than 11pc. Attempts to renegotiate rents with landlords had been only partially successful. The court was told that all of the chain's creditors other than its parent, had been paid up to date.

[Dexter]

The Dept of Finance repeatedly warned the Cabinet about the dangers of the overheating economy but were ignored, as far back as 1999. They probably should have been stronger, although as a company we had a very frustrating encounter with Cowen when he was Finance minister, after one particular budget. To cut a long story short, they threw the baby out with the bathwater when addressing remuneration of offshore workers, trying to address the lower end of the scale for construction workers but also adversely affecting senior executives of mutinationals, IFSC companies etc. Cowen's response was for everyone to feck off, sure weren't we doing great and the government knew what they were at and didn't need advice from anyone, came across as extremely arrogant. This was also in repsonse to the US Chamber of Commerce in Ireland, and also Dell who said they would pull out of Ireland if their views weren't considered (not saying that was the reason).
Interesting that that the ICTU have pooh poohed the report as it mentions the damaging effects of the partnership agreements. Predictable.

THE DEPARTMENT of Finance repeatedly warned the government of the dangers of the budgetary policies pursued during the boom years, an independent review of the department’s performance has found.

However, the report, which recommends major changes to the budgetary process, criticised the department for not vigorously increasing the tone of its advice when it was repeatedly ignored.

The report – drafted by three former senior civil servants from Canada, the Netherlands and Ireland – was given to Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan on December 3rd last and was published yesterday by him. The authors reviewed in detail the June memorandums to cabinet produced annually by the department over the past decade.

Labour’s finance spokeswoman Joan Burton criticised the fact that the report was not published before the election and said it laid the blame clearly where it belonged.

The report found the memos provided “clear warnings” on the risks of so-called pro-cyclical fiscal action in which tax cuts and increased public spending was fuelling the boom excessively.

The views were signed off by the ministers for finance of the day and submitted to cabinet.

“The advice was more direct and comprehensive than concerns expressed by others in Ireland or by international agencies,” the report states.

However, the report said the budget packages announced each subsequent December were “very substantially above” those advocated by the department each June. It identified three reasons for this.

The “extraordinary sense of optimism” that existed at the time created great pressure for spending and taxation measures, the report said.

It also found the budgetary process involved inadequate accountability to the Dáil and was “completely overwhelmed” by two other dominant spending processes – the programmes for government and the partnership agreements, which often included specific spending and tax commitments.

Referring to passages from the 2002 programme for government agreed by Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats, the report said it contained bad tax policies but that there was “no market” for departmental views on their suitability.

“Such analysis should have been provided and communicated forcefully to the minister for finance and the government.”

The report said the partnership process helped inflate public sector wages when the economy began to overheat.

The third reason for the excessively pro-cyclical budgets was the failure of the department to “vigorously” increase the tone of its warnings after several years of its advice not being heeded.

The report found the department provided advice on the risks of on overheated construction sector as far back as 1999 and that its assessments of the risks from the Irish housing bubble were at least as strong as any public analysis over the period.

However, it did not organise a strategic response to the problem or identify a full range of options to moderate activity in the sector. There was also a failure to identify macroeconomic risks to the Irish economy.

Mr Lenihan described the report as a welcome and fair assessment, while Sinn Féin said the report showed radical change was needed in the approach to budget formulation.

Reacting to the report’s comments on the role of the partnership process, the general secretary of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions, David Begg, said it was “a facile exercise in scapegoating, designed to obscure the true cause of the collapse: banks, builders and toxic government policy”.

The Association of Higher Civil and Public Servants said the report vindicated the work of its members.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/fro ... 45591.html

[CRAZYDAVE]

The Dept of Finance repeatedly warned the Cabinet about the dangers of the overheating economy but were ignored, as far back as 1999. They probably should have been stronger, although as a company we had a very frustrating encounter with Cowen when he was Finance minister, after one particular budget. To cut a long story short, they threw the baby out with the bathwater when addressing remuneration of offshore workers, trying to address the lower end of the scale for construction workers but also adversely affecting senior executives of mutinationals, IFSC companies etc. Cowen's response was for everyone to feck off, sure weren't we doing great and the government knew what they were at and didn't need advice from anyone, came across as extremely arrogant. This was also in repsonse to the US Chamber of Commerce in Ireland, and also Dell who said they would pull out of Ireland if their views weren't considered (not saying that was the reason).
Interesting that that the ICTU have pooh poohed the report as it mentions the damaging effects of the partnership agreements. Predictable.

THE DEPARTMENT of Finance repeatedly warned the government of the dangers of the budgetary policies pursued during the boom years, an independent review of the department’s performance has found.

However, the report, which recommends major changes to the budgetary process, criticised the department for not vigorously increasing the tone of its advice when it was repeatedly ignored.

The report – drafted by three former senior civil servants from Canada, the Netherlands and Ireland – was given to Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan on December 3rd last and was published yesterday by him. The authors reviewed in detail the June memorandums to cabinet produced annually by the department over the past decade.

Labour’s finance spokeswoman Joan Burton criticised the fact that the report was not published before the election and said it laid the blame clearly where it belonged.

The report found the memos provided “clear warnings” on the risks of so-called pro-cyclical fiscal action in which tax cuts and increased public spending was fuelling the boom excessively.

The views were signed off by the ministers for finance of the day and submitted to cabinet.

“The advice was more direct and comprehensive than concerns expressed by others in Ireland or by international agencies,” the report states.

However, the report said the budget packages announced each subsequent December were “very substantially above” those advocated by the department each June. It identified three reasons for this.

The “extraordinary sense of optimism” that existed at the time created great pressure for spending and taxation measures, the report said.

It also found the budgetary process involved inadequate accountability to the Dáil and was “completely overwhelmed” by two other dominant spending processes – the programmes for government and the partnership agreements, which often included specific spending and tax commitments.

Referring to passages from the 2002 programme for government agreed by Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats, the report said it contained bad tax policies but that there was “no market” for departmental views on their suitability.

“Such analysis should have been provided and communicated forcefully to the minister for finance and the government.”

The report said the partnership process helped inflate public sector wages when the economy began to overheat.

The third reason for the excessively pro-cyclical budgets was the failure of the department to “vigorously” increase the tone of its warnings after several years of its advice not being heeded.

The report found the department provided advice on the risks of on overheated construction sector as far back as 1999 and that its assessments of the risks from the Irish housing bubble were at least as strong as any public analysis over the period.

However, it did not organise a strategic response to the problem or identify a full range of options to moderate activity in the sector. There was also a failure to identify macroeconomic risks to the Irish economy.

Mr Lenihan described the report as a welcome and fair assessment, while Sinn Féin said the report showed radical change was needed in the approach to budget formulation.

Reacting to the report’s comments on the role of the partnership process, the general secretary of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions, David Begg, said it was “a facile exercise in scapegoating, designed to obscure the true cause of the collapse: banks, builders and toxic government policy”.

The Association of Higher Civil and Public Servants said the report vindicated the work of its members.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/fro ... 45591.html

The problem with this is that it only relates to an annual report produced by the Department and presented to the Cabinet.

Any other advice given by the Department on a daily/weekly basis is subject to the rules of cabinet confidentiality and wont be released for over 20 years.

[sheepshagger]

Expect the others to follow suit. . .

AIB raises its fixed mortgage rates

AIB is increasing its fixed interest mortgage rates for new business for residential owner occupier and buy-to-let borrowers with effect from close of business today.

It blamed the rise on the increased cost of fixed rate mortgage financing.

The bank's one year fixed rate for owner occupiers rises to 4.15pc from 3.59pc, while its five year rate will increase to 5.35pc from 4.39pc.

AIB's one year fixed rate for residential buy-to-let customers will increase from 4.59pc to 5.15pc, while its five year rate rises to 6.35pc from 5.39pc.

The bank's two year, three year and four year rates are also rising.

http://www.fxcentre.com/news.asp?2747952

[fourthirtythree]

Unfazed by a decade of painful misinformation, breathless and brainless enthusiasm, and losing its own shirt in the property market the Irish Times wheels out one of it's gibbering gimps to crack one out to the sound of the hammers falling.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/fro ... 04348.html

Sickening reading. But it's what happens when the guilty go unpunished I suppose.

[Leinsterman]

How about this?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/fro ... 04353.html

CIVIL SERVANTS hoping to regain a free half-hour – a perk that used to exist for them to bank their pay cheques – were told by their own union yesterday their plans were “idiocy” and “nonsense”.

An effort was made yesterday at the Public Service Executive Union (PSEU) annual conference in Galway to have an old agreement reinstated.

The “banking half-hour” system allowed workers to lodge their pay cheques before electronic wage transfer was introduced.

It was abolished for new entrants to the public service in 2003 and ended for others last year under the Croke Park agreement. A motion before the PSEU conference called for the restoration of the perk, but it was opposed by union leaders.

Deputy general secretary Billy Hannigan shot down the motion, saying they would be laughed at if workers looked for time off to bank cheques they didn’t even get.

“This is total and utter nonsense – idiocy of the highest order. We complain about the media not taking us seriously – how could they when we don’t take ourselves seriously if we pass this motion.

“We should take this motion and frog-march it out the door,” he said.

Earlier the Legal Aid Board branch had proposed that while the banking half-hour had ended, it sought to instruct the incoming union executive to seek the restoration of the arrangement whereby it was possible for staff to clock in or for up to half an hour during the day on Thursdays or Fridays without incurring an infringement.

Branch delegate Gerry Enright said that some members had got into the practice over the years of leaving a little early and had asked if that half-hour flexibility could be restored.

Mr Enright said that Mr Hannigan’s comments were “rude and insulting”, although he was sure this was not intended. “We are not looking for banking time as such, we are looking for the arrangement to leave work earlier,” he said.

Clare Connolly, a delegate from the Department of Education and Skills, said she had never benefited from the banking half-hour and that if it was restored for some it would only cause difficulty.

The motion was defeated by a margin of about two-to-one, although a number of branches supported it. The PSEU represents mid-ranking public sector workers, mainly employed in Government departments.

Yes, that fits well with the Croke Park Agreement.
At least it was shot down.

[tate]

How about this?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/fro ... 04353.html

Mr Enright said that Mr Hannigan’s comments were “rude and insulting”, although he was sure this was not intended. “We are not looking for banking time as such, we are looking for the arrangement to leave work earlier,” he said.


The motion was defeated by a margin of about two-to-one, although a number of branches supported it. The PSEU represents mid-ranking public sector workers, mainly employed in Government departments.

Yes, that fits well with the Croke Park Agreement.
At least it was shot down.

jesus wept. Thankfully this motion lost in the vote, but that 1/3 of the votes went in it's favour is embarrassing for them

[CRAZYDAVE]

How about this?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/fro ... 04353.html

Mr Enright said that Mr Hannigan’s comments were “rude and insulting”, although he was sure this was not intended. “We are not looking for banking time as such, we are looking for the arrangement to leave work earlier,” he said.


The motion was defeated by a margin of about two-to-one, although a number of branches supported it. The PSEU represents mid-ranking public sector workers, mainly employed in Government departments.

Yes, that fits well with the Croke Park Agreement.
At least it was shot down.

jesus wept. Thankfully this motion lost in the vote, but that 1/3 of the votes went in it's favour is embarrassing for them

Says a lot about the Legal Aid Board

[simplythebest]

“Dear Monsieur Trichet,

It looks like the ECB, of which you are President of, are going to have to start printing money, or quantative easing as you guys euphemistically prefer to call it. Can I apply for some of this newly printed money. I can seriously give it a very good home and I promise to spend quickly and well. I will take any amount of it, but I could undertake very effective economic contribution measures with €100m. Looking forward to receiving your response.”

Yours sincerely

STB

On a serious note, it looks like this will happen, (printing money). The result of which will be inflation down the road. As will happen in the US. Imo this will be no bad thing. A 15% inflation rate (which we had before in the 70’s) for 5 years will effectively half all our debts. The €90 billion the Gov. are in debt by will have a real value of €45 billion. Peoples negative equity in their houses will be wiped out. The collateral that the banks are holding against loans which currently are inadequate, will become adequate and peoples ability to service those loans will become easier. On nearly every front I can think of, I see benefits. Except of course our ability to compete in Asia, (but with us competing in Europe and the US, and both areas experiencing the same inflation, it won’t affect us in those markets).

Definitely time to fix all loans (esp. mortgages) for 10 years, if possible, methinks.

[waterboy]

Can't see how people's ability to service the loans they are struggling to pay currently at between 2-4% will become easier to service should inflation hit 15%, as interest rates would rise drastically to counteract it. Either way it'd never happen, Germans would pull out of the Euro long before we got to those sort of levels. There's only one thing Germans care about at thats the inflation rate, it's why the ECB's sole mandate is to manage the inflation rate in the eurozone.

[Dexter]

Irish economic growth stalls as consumers cut spending

Today's economic growth figures were a new blow to hopes of recovery, showing no growth from the previous quarter and a yearly decline of 1.1 per cent.
The Irish economy was stagnant in the second quarter of the year, as consumers continued to cut back on spending and capital investment slumped.
The figures were a further blow to hopes for economic growth

Is there a faint whiff of surprise that consumer spending continues to decline? What do they expect, given the uncertainty over how much the budget will cut spending power, daily news items about austerity, taxes on non-earning assets etc.
No confidence = no spending
Does anyone really think reducing spending power will expand consumer spending?

[Peg Leg]

http://www.independent.ie/business/iris ... 70929.html

ESRI Report claiming 1.8% growth this yr and 2.7% next....

All hinged on the larger economies pulling out of recession.....

A bit ambitious methinks.

[Armchair]

http://www.independent.ie/business/iris ... 70929.html

ESRI Report claiming 1.8% growth this yr and 2.7% next....

All hinged on the larger economies pulling out of recession.....

A bit ambitious methinks.

Especially on the day that France announces that it is back in recession and German economy announces it is slowing down

[TheBear]

http://www.independent.ie/business/iris ... 70929.html

ESRI Report claiming 1.8% growth this yr and 2.7% next....

All hinged on the larger economies pulling out of recession.....

A bit ambitious methinks.

I was a tad sceptical about the forecast when I read the url, until I realised that they left the decimal point out. 18% was never likely.

[MarkyDeSad]

http://www.usdebtclock.org/#

This was on popbitch today, fascinating.