Friday's Rave

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Oldschool
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Re: Friday's Rave

Post by Oldschool »

berliner wrote: June 10th, 2024, 10:34 am
Ruckedtobits wrote: June 9th, 2024, 7:23 am We'll watch with interest what the outcome of the European polls, here and elsewhere, will bring. My guess will be that the inutial Irish indications will be replicated across Europe. Extremists don't make for sensible leaders, only fanatics. Fanatics cause disruption and upset and, as the Dublin Riot showed last winter, people don't want disruption and upset, just gradual evolutionary change.
Unfortunately, I wouldn't be so sanguine. In Germany, it's not just that the AFD came second with 16%, it's that the mood has shifted decisively to the right. The Merkel era of CDU colonisation of the centre, is over, Merz is chasing voters on the right. It's only going to deteriorate with the three state elections after the summer in AFD heartlands. I am not looking forward to the federal elections next year.

Elsewhere Meloni is still ascendant in Italy, and in France the grinding advance of the National Front/National Rally continues. The centrist hope is that proximity to power moderates the far-right, but what I observe is the legitimisation of prejudice and authoritarian mentalities.

Forgetfulness, and the complacency that comes in its wake, is the great enemy of democracy. It seems the first half of the twentieth century is now distant enough that it is to be treated as irrelevant.
Merkel was a communist.
The germans got a belated wake up call when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Maybe the election results are a reaction to Russian or Communist influences.
France and Italy in the sixties znd seventies used to poll very high for communists so maybe the move right is just s gradual reaction to that.
Putin has given the west a wake up call and we're seeing the reaction now.
Last edited by Oldschool on June 11th, 2024, 8:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The Doc
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Re: Friday's Rave

Post by The Doc »


johng wrote:I'm not a huge fan of Sinn Fein but I'd take Lynn Boylan ahead of her namesake. In fact I'd take any of the remaining candidates ahead of him.

Prediction. Aodhan and Lynn for the last 2 seats. 2 incumbents to lose out.
At this stage it looks like it'll come down to how the Daly and PBP transfers break. If they go left then I think you're right. But there's a non zero chance a significant number go to yer man as "anti establishment". For example the SF guy last eliminated hardly transferred at all to Boylan but about a third went to him

Essentially 2 of the three have to get past him on the transfers from Daly and PBP. I don't see a way he wins but he's done enough to encourage him to run in the GE I suspect


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Oldschool
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Re: Friday's Rave

Post by Oldschool »

Ruckedtobits wrote: June 10th, 2024, 10:04 pm Looking at the detail of the Local Election results, I am surprised to find that SF seem to have consistently polled higher than their 2019 Local Election results. Although they did not get as high an overall % as they did in the General Election, it is now evident that SF probably fielded too many candidates in many constituencies, particularly in urban areas.

However, nobody should consider that SF have gone away. Like many team sports, they will learn more in defeat than from their relative success in the GE. The main education for the other parties is that whilst SF may understand and manage their votes in N Ireland with almost perfection, they still have a way to go before they have the same mastery of constituency transfers and the relevance of local geography in the non-border parts of the Republic.

In the Europeans, the story will be about transfers, in the South, in Dublin and also in the enormous and diverse Midlands, West & Northern constituency. Anybody who can predict the final seat in any of these European constituencies is a political genius.

One of the really important moves has been the reality that Independents Councillors now outnumber the total of SF, Labour and Greens, three of the five Parties who have formed Governments in the past 20 years. Whether any coherent pattern of support for any particular policies emerges from this large amorphous group remains to be seen. But no future Government will be able to ignore Independents in the future management of both the economy and the social policy changes that they wish to introduce. This may in fact be a bigger challenge than opposing the advance of SF in the next General Election.
SF ran more candidates this time round than in 2019.
That probably accounts for their apparent increase in % terms. Having run more candidates this time will give them a lot more data to work on next time out.
The big thing that is catching them out at the moment is the immigration. They don't have their usual glib "the government's shambolic" handling of the issue to fall back on.
Their honeymoon is over I suspect.
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Oldschool
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Re: Friday's Rave

Post by Oldschool »

johng wrote: June 11th, 2024, 7:48 am I'm not a huge fan of Sinn Fein but I'd take Lynn Boylan ahead of her namesake. In fact I'd take any of the remaining candidates ahead of him.

Prediction. Aodhan and Lynn for the last 2 seats. 2 incumbents to lose out.
I know nothing about Boylan's namesake but the shinners would do a lot more damage than any independent.
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kff15
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Re: Friday's Rave

Post by kff15 »

Oldschool wrote: June 11th, 2024, 8:56 am
johng wrote: June 11th, 2024, 7:48 am I'm not a huge fan of Sinn Fein but I'd take Lynn Boylan ahead of her namesake. In fact I'd take any of the remaining candidates ahead of him.

Prediction. Aodhan and Lynn for the last 2 seats. 2 incumbents to lose out.
I know nothing about Boylan's namesake but the shinners would do a lot more damage than any independent.
Not really correct though in the context of Europe as an Independent here could strengthen a far right grouping in the European parliament
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Re: Friday's Rave

Post by The Doc »

Oldschool wrote: June 11th, 2024, 8:56 am
johng wrote: June 11th, 2024, 7:48 am I'm not a huge fan of Sinn Fein but I'd take Lynn Boylan ahead of her namesake. In fact I'd take any of the remaining candidates ahead of him.

Prediction. Aodhan and Lynn for the last 2 seats. 2 incumbents to lose out.
I know nothing about Boylan's namesake but the shinners would do a lot more damage than any independent.
Worth learning more about him - I can't stand the shinners but in that race I'd prefer them over him
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Re: Friday's Rave

Post by The Doc »

The Doc wrote: June 11th, 2024, 8:42 am
johng wrote:I'm not a huge fan of Sinn Fein but I'd take Lynn Boylan ahead of her namesake. In fact I'd take any of the remaining candidates ahead of him.

Prediction. Aodhan and Lynn for the last 2 seats. 2 incumbents to lose out.
At this stage it looks like it'll come down to how the Daly and PBP transfers break. If they go left then I think you're right. But there's a non zero chance a significant number go to yer man as "anti establishment". For example the SF guy last eliminated hardly transferred at all to Boylan but about a third went to him

Essentially 2 of the three have to get past him on the transfers from Daly and PBP. I don't see a way he wins but he's done enough to encourage him to run in the GE I suspect
Have to edit this - while the SF candidate is eliminated the transfer I mentioned before was from the previous elimination (another hard right independent) so not as surprising - apologies

Think it still comes down to the transfers from Daly and PBP
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I've got nothing against your right leg.
The trouble is ... neither have you
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johng
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Re: Friday's Rave

Post by johng »

Oldschool wrote: June 11th, 2024, 8:56 am
johng wrote: June 11th, 2024, 7:48 am I'm not a huge fan of Sinn Fein but I'd take Lynn Boylan ahead of her namesake. In fact I'd take any of the remaining candidates ahead of him.

Prediction. Aodhan and Lynn for the last 2 seats. 2 incumbents to lose out.
I know nothing about Boylan's namesake but the shinners would do a lot more damage than any independent.
You are so lucky. Thankfully I've managed to avoid him for several decades.

I once had to leave a taxi about 25 years ago when the taximan refused my (fairly polite) request to change the radio station from his programme.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Post by berliner »

Oldschool wrote: June 11th, 2024, 8:39 am
berliner wrote: June 10th, 2024, 10:34 am
Ruckedtobits wrote: June 9th, 2024, 7:23 am We'll watch with interest what the outcome of the European polls, here and elsewhere, will bring. My guess will be that the inutial Irish indications will be replicated across Europe. Extremists don't make for sensible leaders, only fanatics. Fanatics cause disruption and upset and, as the Dublin Riot showed last winter, people don't want disruption and upset, just gradual evolutionary change.
Unfortunately, I wouldn't be so sanguine. In Germany, it's not just that the AFD came second with 16%, it's that the mood has shifted decisively to the right. The Merkel era of CDU colonisation of the centre, is over, Merz is chasing voters on the right. It's only going to deteriorate with the three state elections after the summer in AFD heartlands. I am not looking forward to the federal elections next year.

Elsewhere Meloni is still ascendant in Italy, and in France the grinding advance of the National Front/National Rally continues. The centrist hope is that proximity to power moderates the far-right, but what I observe is the legitimisation of prejudice and authoritarian mentalities.

Forgetfulness, and the complacency that comes in its wake, is the great enemy of democracy. It seems the first half of the twentieth century is now distant enough that it is to be treated as irrelevant.
Merkel was a communist.
The germans got a belated wake up call when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Maybe the election results are a reaction to Russian or Communist influences.
France and Italy in the sixties znd seventies used to poll very high for communists so maybe the move right is just s gradual reaction to that.
Putin has given the west a wake up call and we're seeing the reaction now.
These are very strange ideas, but I'm glad I now know where you stand.
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johng
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Re: Friday's Rave

Post by johng »

berliner wrote: June 11th, 2024, 12:26 pm
Oldschool wrote: June 11th, 2024, 8:39 am
berliner wrote: June 10th, 2024, 10:34 am

Unfortunately, I wouldn't be so sanguine. In Germany, it's not just that the AFD came second with 16%, it's that the mood has shifted decisively to the right. The Merkel era of CDU colonisation of the centre, is over, Merz is chasing voters on the right. It's only going to deteriorate with the three state elections after the summer in AFD heartlands. I am not looking forward to the federal elections next year.

Elsewhere Meloni is still ascendant in Italy, and in France the grinding advance of the National Front/National Rally continues. The centrist hope is that proximity to power moderates the far-right, but what I observe is the legitimisation of prejudice and authoritarian mentalities.

Forgetfulness, and the complacency that comes in its wake, is the great enemy of democracy. It seems the first half of the twentieth century is now distant enough that it is to be treated as irrelevant.
Merkel was a communist.
The germans got a belated wake up call when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Maybe the election results are a reaction to Russian or Communist influences.
France and Italy in the sixties znd seventies used to poll very high for communists so maybe the move right is just s gradual reaction to that.
Putin has given the west a wake up call and we're seeing the reaction now.
These are very strange ideas, but I'm glad I now know where you stand.
I'm guessing he means communist in the US sense. i.e anything to the left of Attilla the Hun is communist
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Oldschool
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Re: Friday's Rave

Post by Oldschool »

berliner wrote: June 11th, 2024, 12:26 pm
Oldschool wrote: June 11th, 2024, 8:39 am
berliner wrote: June 10th, 2024, 10:34 am

Unfortunately, I wouldn't be so sanguine. In Germany, it's not just that the AFD came second with 16%, it's that the mood has shifted decisively to the right. The Merkel era of CDU colonisation of the centre, is over, Merz is chasing voters on the right. It's only going to deteriorate with the three state elections after the summer in AFD heartlands. I am not looking forward to the federal elections next year.

Elsewhere Meloni is still ascendant in Italy, and in France the grinding advance of the National Front/National Rally continues. The centrist hope is that proximity to power moderates the far-right, but what I observe is the legitimisation of prejudice and authoritarian mentalities.

Forgetfulness, and the complacency that comes in its wake, is the great enemy of democracy. It seems the first half of the twentieth century is now distant enough that it is to be treated as irrelevant.
Merkel was a communist.
The germans got a belated wake up call when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Maybe the election results are a reaction to Russian or Communist influences.
France and Italy in the sixties znd seventies used to poll very high for communists so maybe the move right is just s gradual reaction to that.
Putin has given the west a wake up call and we're seeing the reaction now.
These are very strange ideas, but I'm glad I now know where you stand.
If by that remark you understand me to be anti communist then fine. Anything else purely reflects your own bias.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Post by SoupyNorman »

While OldSchool is probably the opposite of me politically (apart from neither of us seeming to claim Angela Merkel as representative of our viewpoints), he probably is right about Merkel.

She WAS a Communist. Particularly in her student days in the GDR. Not that there was much choice for her.

Don't think her CDU years since shortly after reunification reflected any significant communist viewpoint.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Post by johng »

SoupyNorman wrote: June 11th, 2024, 4:16 pm While OldSchool is probably the opposite of me politically (apart from neither of us seeming to claim Angela Merkel as representative of our viewpoints), he probably is right about Merkel.

She WAS a Communist. Particularly in her student days in the GDR. Not that there was much choice for her.

Don't think her CDU years since shortly after reunification reflected any significant communist viewpoint.
Away out of that with your logic and reason.

You can prove anything with facts! I find they tend to cloud my judgement. I prefer to rely on instinct and blind prejudice.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Post by johng »

johng wrote: June 11th, 2024, 7:48 am I'm not a huge fan of Sinn Fein but I'd take Lynn Boylan ahead of her namesake. In fact I'd take any of the remaining candidates ahead of him.

Prediction. Aodhan and Lynn for the last 2 seats. 2 incumbents to lose out.
Cough cough.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Post by fourthirtythree »

Merkel the Christian Democrat and protege of Helmut Kohl a communist?

That’s the kind of deranged fact free ignorance it takes to imagine that a sensible, serious politician like Lynn Boylan will do worse for Ireland than Wiggy Boylan.

You encounter his like online all the time, convinced that their contrary opinions are worth everyone listening to rather than mere symptoms of their toxic narcissism insaiating that they be the centre of any argument. No matter how little they know.

You might notice how the two centre right politicians started finally getting transfers after the right wing nut jobs were eliminated.
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Oldschool
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Re: Friday's Rave

Post by Oldschool »

fourthirtythree wrote: June 11th, 2024, 9:14 pm Merkel the Christian Democrat and protege of Helmut Kohl a communist?

That’s the kind of deranged fact free ignorance it takes to imagine that a sensible, serious politician like Lynn Boylan will do worse for Ireland than Wiggy Boylan.

You encounter his like online all the time, convinced that their contrary opinions are worth everyone listening to rather than mere symptoms of their toxic narcissism insaiating that they be the centre of any argument. No matter how little they know.

You might notice how the two centre right politicians started finally getting transfers after the right wing nut jobs were eliminated.
You're just a sore loser and quite a toxic narcisstiic one too.
Less of the smear campaign too.
You know nothing about me and what I do or don't do online
But that won't stop you making up or implying nasty stuff about me.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Post by hugonaut »

fourthirtythree wrote: June 11th, 2024, 9:14 pm Merkel the Christian Democrat and protege of Helmut Kohl a communist?

That’s the kind of deranged fact free ignorance it takes to imagine that a sensible, serious politician like Lynn Boylan will do worse for Ireland than Wiggy Boylan.

You encounter his like online all the time, convinced that their contrary opinions are worth everyone listening to rather than mere symptoms of their toxic narcissism insaiating that they be the centre of any argument. No matter how little they know.

You might notice how the two centre right politicians started finally getting transfers after the right wing nut jobs were eliminated.
Saying Angela Merkel is a communist is like saying that the majority of people born in Ireland 1900-1990 were fundamentalist Catholics. It's more complicated in reality. She moved to East Germany when she was a baby because her father, a pastor, was sent there. It was a communist state, she grew up there. I got confirmed when I was 12 years old and 'became an adult in the eyes of the Catholic Church', as the widely held sentiment went.

I recognise that there were good parts as well as bad parts in Irish Catholicism, but if I was to look back on it today with a subjective eye I would say we were pretty close to being a theocracy even in the last quarter of the twentieth century. We were close to being an outright theocracy for the middle part of the twentieth century.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Post by IanD »

Oldschool wrote: June 11th, 2024, 9:35 pm
fourthirtythree wrote: June 11th, 2024, 9:14 pm Merkel the Christian Democrat and protege of Helmut Kohl a communist?

That’s the kind of deranged fact free ignorance it takes to imagine that a sensible, serious politician like Lynn Boylan will do worse for Ireland than Wiggy Boylan.

You encounter his like online all the time, convinced that their contrary opinions are worth everyone listening to rather than mere symptoms of their toxic narcissism insaiating that they be the centre of any argument. No matter how little they know.

You might notice how the two centre right politicians started finally getting transfers after the right wing nut jobs were eliminated.
You're just a sore loser and quite a toxic narcisstiic one too.
Less of the smear campaign too.
You know nothing about me and what I do or don't do online
But that won't stop you making up or implying nasty stuff about me.
I'll bite.

Where was anything made up about you?

What nasty stuff was implied?
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Oldschool
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Re: Friday's Rave

Post by Oldschool »

IanD wrote: June 11th, 2024, 10:14 pm
Oldschool wrote: June 11th, 2024, 9:35 pm
fourthirtythree wrote: June 11th, 2024, 9:14 pm Merkel the Christian Democrat and protege of Helmut Kohl a communist?

That’s the kind of deranged fact free ignorance it takes to imagine that a sensible, serious politician like Lynn Boylan will do worse for Ireland than Wiggy Boylan.

You encounter his like online all the time, convinced that their contrary opinions are worth everyone listening to rather than mere symptoms of their toxic narcissism insaiating that they be the centre of any argument. No matter how little they know.

You might notice how the two centre right politicians started finally getting transfers after the right wing nut jobs were eliminated.
You're just a sore loser and quite a toxic narcisstiic one too.
Less of the smear campaign too.
You know nothing about me and what I do or don't do online
But that won't stop you making up or implying nasty stuff about me.
I'll bite.

Where was anything made up about you?

What nasty stuff was implied?
Toxic narcissist ???
Mirror, Mirror on the Wall who's the greatest player of them all? It is Drico your majesty.
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johng
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Re: Friday's Rave

Post by johng »

Unless you are admitting to being Niall Boylan he was not talking about you OS.

The only thing he commented on you about was your bizarre assertion that Merkel was a Communist because she lived in the DDR as a youngwan
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