Corona Virus

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paddyor
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by paddyor »

Oldschoolsocks wrote: November 29th, 2021, 1:07 am A breakthrough infection is where a fully vaccinated person becomes infected.

Fully vaccinated people are getting infected, getting sick and dying. Most of these seem to be in the most vulnerable categories.

So I still don’t know where the claim of BS comes from.
That has nothing to do with variants. The vaccines don't prevent you from getting covid and were never 100% effective at preventing hospitalisations or death accross the entire popujlation. The Johnson and Johnson was as low as 70% IIRC. But even in those cases the IFR has been reduced to that of a flu. If we had 100% fully vaxxed ICU and hopsital numbers would be half what they are now. This is how it was supposed to work. To further complicate things
you have waning immunity from the vaccines. So in summary, breakthrough infections = infections. That's the BS part. Breakthrough infections is the new long covid.
Ruddock's tackle stats consistently too low for me to be taken seriously as a Six Nations blindside..... Ruddock's defensive stats don't stack up. - All Blacks Nil, Jan 15th, 2014
England A 8 - 14 Ireland A, 25th Jan 2014
Ruddock(c) 19/2 Tackles
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Oldschool »

Rather than being in a fourth phase, it's likely that we're seeing the first herd immunity phase.
People who aren't vaccinated are now being picked off by the virus. They are mostly young and healthy and very few are ending up sick enough to be hospitalised.
Boosters will protect the vulnerable but there will be a period of waning immunity when people will be infected, may well be symptomatic but again won't need to be hospitalised.
This is likely to continue for a few years, will be mostly seasonal and will be similar, in affect, to the flu.
So it begs the questions, what should the long term strategy adopted to deal with these seasonal and very expensive diseases.
For example.
We need cheaper and faster tests even if a certain amount of accuracy is sacrificed. Effectively a GP needs equipment capable of giving rapid results.
Not sure if this type of technology is available yet but it's certainly likely to be developed.
We need drugs that are effective treatments for COVID, there are already a couple of recent additions to the toolkit.
Then there are behavioural issues.
Wearing masks etc
As an aside we are currently doing 200k tests a week and even after almost two years of COVID the numpties in the Dail are still calling for more T&T, the WHO stand indicted on this. T&T doesn't work in a catch all sense.
How much is this costing, not just in monetary terms but wasted manpower and wasted opportunity.
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Oldschoolsocks »

paddyor wrote: November 29th, 2021, 3:32 pm
Oldschoolsocks wrote: November 29th, 2021, 1:07 am A breakthrough infection is where a fully vaccinated person becomes infected.

Fully vaccinated people are getting infected, getting sick and dying. Most of these seem to be in the most vulnerable categories.

So I still don’t know where the claim of BS comes from.
That has nothing to do with variants. The vaccines don't prevent you from getting covid and were never 100% effective at preventing hospitalisations or death accross the entire popujlation. The Johnson and Johnson was as low as 70% IIRC. But even in those cases the IFR has been reduced to that of a flu. If we had 100% fully vaxxed ICU and hopsital numbers would be half what they are now. This is how it was supposed to work. To further complicate things
you have waning immunity from the vaccines. So in summary, breakthrough infections = infections. That's the BS part. Breakthrough infections is the new long covid.
I'm sorry Paddy, unless you're a medical expert - which you might well be, I'm going to listen to the lads who are experts in this field.
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Oldschool »

Oldschoolsocks wrote: November 29th, 2021, 6:15 pm
paddyor wrote: November 29th, 2021, 3:32 pm
Oldschoolsocks wrote: November 29th, 2021, 1:07 am A breakthrough infection is where a fully vaccinated person becomes infected.

Fully vaccinated people are getting infected, getting sick and dying. Most of these seem to be in the most vulnerable categories.

So I still don’t know where the claim of BS comes from.
That has nothing to do with variants. The vaccines don't prevent you from getting covid and were never 100% effective at preventing hospitalisations or death accross the entire popujlation. The Johnson and Johnson was as low as 70% IIRC. But even in those cases the IFR has been reduced to that of a flu. If we had 100% fully vaxxed ICU and hopsital numbers would be half what they are now. This is how it was supposed to work. To further complicate things
you have waning immunity from the vaccines. So in summary, breakthrough infections = infections. That's the BS part. Breakthrough infections is the new long covid.
I'm sorry Paddy, unless you're a medical expert - which you might well be, I'm going to listen to the lads who are experts in this field.
The problem with that approach is that the "experts" are only telling us what they want to tell us.
So you can listen all you want but you won't here a whole lot.
What if they are getting it wrong.
They've made mistakes and some biggies at that.
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by paddyor »

Oldschoolsocks wrote: November 29th, 2021, 6:15 pm
paddyor wrote: November 29th, 2021, 3:32 pm
Oldschoolsocks wrote: November 29th, 2021, 1:07 am A breakthrough infection is where a fully vaccinated person becomes infected.

Fully vaccinated people are getting infected, getting sick and dying. Most of these seem to be in the most vulnerable categories.

So I still don’t know where the claim of BS comes from.
That has nothing to do with variants. The vaccines don't prevent you from getting covid and were never 100% effective at preventing hospitalisations or death accross the entire popujlation. The Johnson and Johnson was as low as 70% IIRC. But even in those cases the IFR has been reduced to that of a flu. If we had 100% fully vaxxed ICU and hopsital numbers would be half what they are now. This is how it was supposed to work. To further complicate things
you have waning immunity from the vaccines. So in summary, breakthrough infections = infections. That's the BS part. Breakthrough infections is the new long covid.
I'm sorry Paddy, unless you're a medical expert - which you might well be, I'm going to listen to the lads who are experts in this field.
Experts like these?
https://twitter.com/rfitz77/status/1465 ... 10025?s=20
Ruddock's tackle stats consistently too low for me to be taken seriously as a Six Nations blindside..... Ruddock's defensive stats don't stack up. - All Blacks Nil, Jan 15th, 2014
England A 8 - 14 Ireland A, 25th Jan 2014
Ruddock(c) 19/2 Tackles
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by paddyor »

Oldschool wrote: November 29th, 2021, 6:44 pm The problem with that approach is that the "experts" are only telling us what they want to tell us.
So you can listen all you want but you won't here a whole lot.
What if they are getting it wrong.
They've made mistakes and some biggies at that.
Yep, the refusal to adopt antigen testing, the decision to wind up the vax rollout scheme as boosters became required, using modelling that assumed the vaccines wouldn't work at all. That's just Ireland. Plius the likes of Staines, Orla Hegarty and Tomas Ryan aren't experts either but they get wheeled out in the media.

Gf and I have covid. Info brought to you by antigen tests, PCR test confirmed her and I'm waiting for mine. Its like a head cold probably because of the vaccines.
Ruddock's tackle stats consistently too low for me to be taken seriously as a Six Nations blindside..... Ruddock's defensive stats don't stack up. - All Blacks Nil, Jan 15th, 2014
England A 8 - 14 Ireland A, 25th Jan 2014
Ruddock(c) 19/2 Tackles
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Oldschoolsocks »

paddyor wrote: November 29th, 2021, 7:15 pm
Oldschoolsocks wrote: November 29th, 2021, 6:15 pm
paddyor wrote: November 29th, 2021, 3:32 pm
That has nothing to do with variants. The vaccines don't prevent you from getting covid and were never 100% effective at preventing hospitalisations or death accross the entire popujlation. The Johnson and Johnson was as low as 70% IIRC. But even in those cases the IFR has been reduced to that of a flu. If we had 100% fully vaxxed ICU and hopsital numbers would be half what they are now. This is how it was supposed to work. To further complicate things
you have waning immunity from the vaccines. So in summary, breakthrough infections = infections. That's the BS part. Breakthrough infections is the new long covid.
I'm sorry Paddy, unless you're a medical expert - which you might well be, I'm going to listen to the lads who are experts in this field.
Experts like these?
https://twitter.com/rfitz77/status/1465 ... 10025?s=20
maybe? I've no idea who this guy is or what his credentials or biases are.
Maybe he does have all of the answers?
If this is where you want to get your information knock yourself out man.

I definitely don't have the expertise to sort the wheat from the chaff, so I'm more than happy to listen to an unbiased expert summarise the science and what the scientific community is saying.
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by paddyor »

Oldschoolsocks wrote: November 29th, 2021, 8:01 pm
paddyor wrote: November 29th, 2021, 7:15 pm
Experts like these?
https://twitter.com/rfitz77/status/1465 ... 10025?s=20
maybe? I've no idea who this guy is or what his credentials or biases are.
Maybe he does have all of the answers?
If this is where you want to get your information knock yourself out man.

I definitely don't have the expertise to sort the wheat from the chaff, so I'm more than happy to listen to an unbiased expert summarise the science and what the scientific community is saying.
It's a thread of scientists including Fauci and Michael Mina(the guy who schooled Philip Nolan on Antigen testing)saying the vaccines wouldn't 100% stop infections. Because there's a backlash against experts now saying they oversold the effectiveness of the vaccines. Wheras in reality it was govts who said vaccines are the way out and people misread that as no infections(me included).

Image
Ruddock's tackle stats consistently too low for me to be taken seriously as a Six Nations blindside..... Ruddock's defensive stats don't stack up. - All Blacks Nil, Jan 15th, 2014
England A 8 - 14 Ireland A, 25th Jan 2014
Ruddock(c) 19/2 Tackles
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by fourthirtythree »

paddyor wrote: November 29th, 2021, 7:52 pm
Oldschool wrote: November 29th, 2021, 6:44 pm The problem with that approach is that the "experts" are only telling us what they want to tell us.
So you can listen all you want but you won't here a whole lot.
What if they are getting it wrong.
They've made mistakes and some biggies at that.
Yep, the refusal to adopt antigen testing, the decision to wind up the vax rollout scheme as boosters became required, using modelling that assumed the vaccines wouldn't work at all. That's just Ireland. Plius the likes of Staines, Orla Hegarty and Tomas Ryan aren't experts either but they get wheeled out in the media.

Gf and I have covid. Info brought to you by antigen tests, PCR test confirmed her and I'm waiting for mine. Its like a head cold probably because of the vaccines.
You don't solvve multidisciplinary problems by limiting yourself to a narrow band of experts. Western inability to accept hard won Asian knowledge on airborne pandemics has been infuriating. We got CO2 monitors last April (and don't take our recommded numbers from Irish sources) and HEPA filtration when we were more open and particularly as winter drew in and windows are less useful.

If you'd asked historians they would have alerted you to the influence of the SF Anti Mask League a century ago and perhaps policy makers might have not been so blindsided by fascism.

We've left out unmasked petri dishes in schools and hidden this by not testing or tracing.

Meanwhile Japan caught up with our vaccination rate the other week and has negligible cases.

Our lot only look vaguely competent as we have genuine basket cases to our left and to our right.

Thanks Tony. You done f%~ked up. Obviously and predictably.
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Oldschoolsocks »

paddyor wrote: November 29th, 2021, 9:08 pm
Oldschoolsocks wrote: November 29th, 2021, 8:01 pm
paddyor wrote: November 29th, 2021, 7:15 pm
Experts like these?
https://twitter.com/rfitz77/status/1465 ... 10025?s=20
maybe? I've no idea who this guy is or what his credentials or biases are.
Maybe he does have all of the answers?
If this is where you want to get your information knock yourself out man.

I definitely don't have the expertise to sort the wheat from the chaff, so I'm more than happy to listen to an unbiased expert summarise the science and what the scientific community is saying.
It's a thread of scientists including Fauci and Michael Mina(the guy who schooled Philip Nolan on Antigen testing)saying the vaccines wouldn't 100% stop infections. Because there's a backlash against experts now saying they oversold the effectiveness of the vaccines. Wheras in reality it was govts who said vaccines are the way out and people misread that as no infections(me included).

Image
Paddy, I don't know who you're arguing with. I posted a link, you claimed that it's BS - I still don't know what piece of it is BS,
is breakthrough infections? because there is a scientific consensus that there are breakthrough infections
is it banning travel from South Africa? it may well be too late, but it still seems like a sensible precaution


as for vaccinations stopping 100% of infections I don't think that was ever claimed -

EDIT - just saw that you and the GF have been infected - hope it's a mild dose and you recover soon
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by paddyor »

Oldschoolsocks wrote: November 29th, 2021, 11:30 pm Paddy, I don't know who you're arguing with. I posted a link, you claimed that it's BS - I still don't know what piece of it is BS,
is breakthrough infections? because there is a scientific consensus that there are breakthrough infections
is it banning travel from South Africa? it may well be too late, but it still seems like a sensible precaution


as for vaccinations stopping 100% of infections I don't think that was ever claimed -

EDIT - just saw that you and the GF have been infected - hope it's a mild dose and you recover soon
Breakthough infections are just infections. The vaccine wasn't designed to stop transmisability. They can have all the consensus they want but what they've observed is vaccines having the impat they were supposed to have. And no the travel ban isn't sensible. Sa had 2k cases yesterday and the UK 40 (which it's had for about 2 months) and if this was discovered a month ago it's been around for longer than that. It's headless and massively inequitable. My suspicion is that this is little more than a handy way for the UK and others to reverse course on some measures as the winter respiratory illness spike kicks in. Do you not think it's a bit weird we're worried about variants from SA, Brazil and India and not say variants from the US(over 69k cases) or the Uk (over 40k)?

I think a lot of the stuff with the variants has been about little more than keep people scared because it's just not scary anymore moreso if your vaxxed. And it's worked too. Over 50% of Irish people believe we're going thru the worst of Covid now(c20%) or it's ahead of us(c30%). There's people who think we're having 90 deaths a day or that's just around the corner.

We're grand thanks. Feels like a mild cold.
Ruddock's tackle stats consistently too low for me to be taken seriously as a Six Nations blindside..... Ruddock's defensive stats don't stack up. - All Blacks Nil, Jan 15th, 2014
England A 8 - 14 Ireland A, 25th Jan 2014
Ruddock(c) 19/2 Tackles
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Oldschoolsocks »

Good to hear Paddy, you call infections what ever you want. I’ll call them what the scientific community call them, because that’s what they are.
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by RoboProp »

On the matter of new variants, there is a theory developed by evolutionary epidemiologist Paul Ewald, the “evolution of virulence,” which suggests that, as a rule, the deadlier the germ, the less likely it is to spread e.g. Ebola/MERS. So from an evolutionary perspective it makes no sense for a pathogen to harm the host on which it depends for its survival. Using this reasoning, virulence is little more than a temporary evolutionary imbalance...again just a theory, but it gives me hope that we will see light at the end of the tunnel one day. Hey, I'm an optimist
Data source https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118948/
I know that I clutch at straws, but they are straws with roots in science rather then "Without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it's time for our viewers to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside"
Keep fighting the good fight folks, wash hands, wear your masks, get your boosters, distance when possible, stay off Facebook, rinse lather repeat
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by heno »


paddyor wrote: Do you not think it's a bit weird we're worried about variants from SA, Brazil and India and not say variants from the US(over 69k cases) or the Uk (over 40k)?
We were worried about the alpha variant when it was dominating which came from the UK. And the Iota variant was from the US mainly NY I think but it faded away without becoming dominant.
We worry about the ones we with about because they are worrying, not because of where they are from.

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Re: Corona Virus

Post by paddyor »

RoboProp wrote: November 30th, 2021, 9:10 am On the matter of new variants, there is a theory developed by evolutionary epidemiologist Paul Ewald, the “evolution of virulence,” which suggests that, as a rule, the deadlier the germ, the less likely it is to spread e.g. Ebola/MERS. So from an evolutionary perspective it makes no sense for a pathogen to harm the host on which it depends for its survival. Using this reasoning, virulence is little more than a temporary evolutionary imbalance...again just a theory, but it gives me hope that we will see light at the end of the tunnel one day. Hey, I'm an optimist
Data source https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118948/
I know that I clutch at straws, but they are straws with roots in science rather then "Without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it's time for our viewers to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside"
Keep fighting the good fight folks, wash hands, wear your masks, get your boosters, distance when possible, stay off Facebook, rinse lather repeat
Would be funny if we want balls to the wall trying to stop the spread of a new variant that effectively reduced the IFR to like .2% or .1% only to realize 4 months later it was a better way out than the vaccines
Ruddock's tackle stats consistently too low for me to be taken seriously as a Six Nations blindside..... Ruddock's defensive stats don't stack up. - All Blacks Nil, Jan 15th, 2014
England A 8 - 14 Ireland A, 25th Jan 2014
Ruddock(c) 19/2 Tackles
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by The Doc »

paddyor wrote: November 30th, 2021, 4:02 pm
RoboProp wrote: November 30th, 2021, 9:10 am On the matter of new variants, there is a theory developed by evolutionary epidemiologist Paul Ewald, the “evolution of virulence,” which suggests that, as a rule, the deadlier the germ, the less likely it is to spread e.g. Ebola/MERS. So from an evolutionary perspective it makes no sense for a pathogen to harm the host on which it depends for its survival. Using this reasoning, virulence is little more than a temporary evolutionary imbalance...again just a theory, but it gives me hope that we will see light at the end of the tunnel one day. Hey, I'm an optimist
Data source https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118948/
I know that I clutch at straws, but they are straws with roots in science rather then "Without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it's time for our viewers to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside"
Keep fighting the good fight folks, wash hands, wear your masks, get your boosters, distance when possible, stay off Facebook, rinse lather repeat
Would be funny if we want balls to the wall trying to stop the spread of a new variant that effectively reduced the IFR to like .2% or .1% only to realize 4 months later it was a better way out than the vaccines
The vaccines give better immunity than infection - at least for all the variants to date
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by RoboProp »

The Doc wrote: November 30th, 2021, 4:34 pm
paddyor wrote: November 30th, 2021, 4:02 pm
RoboProp wrote: November 30th, 2021, 9:10 am On the matter of new variants, there is a theory developed by evolutionary epidemiologist Paul Ewald, the “evolution of virulence,” which suggests that, as a rule, the deadlier the germ, the less likely it is to spread e.g. Ebola/MERS. So from an evolutionary perspective it makes no sense for a pathogen to harm the host on which it depends for its survival. Using this reasoning, virulence is little more than a temporary evolutionary imbalance...again just a theory, but it gives me hope that we will see light at the end of the tunnel one day. Hey, I'm an optimist
Data source https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118948/
I know that I clutch at straws, but they are straws with roots in science rather then "Without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it's time for our viewers to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside"
Keep fighting the good fight folks, wash hands, wear your masks, get your boosters, distance when possible, stay off Facebook, rinse lather repeat
Would be funny if we want balls to the wall trying to stop the spread of a new variant that effectively reduced the IFR to like .2% or .1% only to realize 4 months later it was a better way out than the vaccines
The vaccines give better immunity than infection - at least for all the variants to date
Agreed. Got my booster on Saturday. I'm relatively young, but I have pretty bad asthma so it was a no brainer for me
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by paddyor »

The Doc wrote: November 30th, 2021, 4:34 pm
paddyor wrote: November 30th, 2021, 4:02 pm
RoboProp wrote: November 30th, 2021, 9:10 am On the matter of new variants, there is a theory developed by evolutionary epidemiologist Paul Ewald, the “evolution of virulence,” which suggests that, as a rule, the deadlier the germ, the less likely it is to spread e.g. Ebola/MERS. So from an evolutionary perspective it makes no sense for a pathogen to harm the host on which it depends for its survival. Using this reasoning, virulence is little more than a temporary evolutionary imbalance...again just a theory, but it gives me hope that we will see light at the end of the tunnel one day. Hey, I'm an optimist
Data source https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118948/
I know that I clutch at straws, but they are straws with roots in science rather then "Without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it's time for our viewers to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside"
Keep fighting the good fight folks, wash hands, wear your masks, get your boosters, distance when possible, stay off Facebook, rinse lather repeat
Would be funny if we want balls to the wall trying to stop the spread of a new variant that effectively reduced the IFR to like .2% or .1% only to realize 4 months later it was a better way out than the vaccines
The vaccines give better immunity than infection - at least for all the variants to date
Right but if the risk from infection is so low, how many will bother with a vaccine and twice yearly boosters?
Ruddock's tackle stats consistently too low for me to be taken seriously as a Six Nations blindside..... Ruddock's defensive stats don't stack up. - All Blacks Nil, Jan 15th, 2014
England A 8 - 14 Ireland A, 25th Jan 2014
Ruddock(c) 19/2 Tackles
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by The Doc »

paddyor wrote:
The Doc wrote: November 30th, 2021, 4:34 pm
paddyor wrote: November 30th, 2021, 4:02 pm Would be funny if we want balls to the wall trying to stop the spread of a new variant that effectively reduced the IFR to like .2% or .1% only to realize 4 months later it was a better way out than the vaccines
The vaccines give better immunity than infection - at least for all the variants to date
Right but if the risk from infection is so low, how many will bother with a vaccine and twice yearly boosters?
I'm not sure I understand... The risk of infection is quite high it seems. Risk of serious illness isn't clear yet. Not sure I have picked up your point

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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Oldschoolsocks »

paddyor wrote: November 30th, 2021, 4:02 pm
RoboProp wrote: November 30th, 2021, 9:10 am On the matter of new variants, there is a theory developed by evolutionary epidemiologist Paul Ewald, the “evolution of virulence,” which suggests that, as a rule, the deadlier the germ, the less likely it is to spread e.g. Ebola/MERS. So from an evolutionary perspective it makes no sense for a pathogen to harm the host on which it depends for its survival. Using this reasoning, virulence is little more than a temporary evolutionary imbalance...again just a theory, but it gives me hope that we will see light at the end of the tunnel one day. Hey, I'm an optimist
Data source https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118948/
I know that I clutch at straws, but they are straws with roots in science rather then "Without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it's time for our viewers to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside"
Keep fighting the good fight folks, wash hands, wear your masks, get your boosters, distance when possible, stay off Facebook, rinse lather repeat
Would be funny if we want balls to the wall trying to stop the spread of a new variant that effectively reduced the IFR to like .2% or .1% only to realize 4 months later it was a better way out than the vaccines
it would be absolutely amazeballs if this or another variant did that thing, but the thing is we just don't know yet so there's that
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