URC 22/23

[Xanthippe]

I think you may be going a little too inexperienced there. There are players outside our first choice 23 who would benefit from more gametime for their own development or to keep in shape in case they are called on due to injury and leaders to tie the group together.

I think I'd be including Milne, McKee, Molony, Ruddock, Penny, Foley, Frawley, Turner and Kearney.

I can see where you're coming from, but if any one of those nine named players comes back crocked from RSA, then that could leave us thin in a particular position, as we've no idea when Ringer, Osborne, Keenan, J10, McCarthy, Ngatai or Doris will return to play. Also one or other player will more than likely pick up an injury in the course of seven k.o. matches - assuming we get that far. For that reason, I like Hugo's suggestion: send the kids on a mini-tour and let them fly the blue flag on the High Veldt. Mol an óige and all that.

You might be right but theres potentially* 7 knock out games in 9 weeks. We don't want players who will won't have played since since 24 March if we are calling on them on 27 May.

You are probably right that we could probably keep and extra centre from my list if Ngatai Osbourne and Ringrose are still as they would be in the 23 for the knock out games.

*fixed that for you

[colinmtn]

FIrst critea if points are even is no of match wins. Currently Con and Mun both on 9 so assuming Connacht beat Cardiff they are ahead of munster 10 wins to 9 in this senario and finish 7th knocking munster out of european qualification.

Munster loss to Stormers and Connacht bp vs Cardiff in round 17 guarantees at least 7th place and HEC for Connacht as they will be ahead of both Munster and Sharks who play each other on the last weekend.

Back of the envelope stuff but, I am optimistically giving us 2 LBPS in Saffer land.
Leinster 76
Stormers 71
Ulster 69
Glasgow 63
Bulls 53
Sharks 51
Munster 48
Connacht 48

QF
LEI V CON
GLA V BUL
STO V SHA
ULS V MUN

[paddyor]

I think there’s a case for keeping Harry Byrne on the pitch. He’s missed so much rugby over the past 2 years. A lot can change in a week (hopefully 2) but all going well I’d get Harry on the pitch. It’s doing him good. Also think this is what Ruddock is for now at the risk of being too dismissive. I’d probably send turner too injury permitting.

And I get that Harry is 3rd choice now so is risk but I just think play him for 50 mins and he’ll be in better shape come May. Otherwise he gets maybe 20-30mins total thru April all going well. We’re gonna need to start him at least once if we can get to the 5 game run in.

Frawley is there too, but any chance to play him at 10 has been passed up by leocaster. I’d hold him back because were light at centre with Osborne and ngatai out.

[ronk]

There's a case for bringing everyone outside the Ulster 23 (and maybe even one or two of those)and injured players.

Just because we're qualified doesn't mean that we don't have games. Lots of teams play us with nothing on the line and we want them to make an effort. They're putting on a big show in a double header and it's our first time playing altitude away. Good experience.

A win against the Bulls would be huge for Munsters HC qualification (IRFU coffers).

There's always a balance between resting players and playing them, resting the guys against Ulster is a good balance, resting more than that leaves players cold if they're not needed and gives less gametime to players we want to give valuable gametime to.

These are exciting matches and I'm curious to see how we go against teams that we could be facing later in the season.

[paddyor]

Cardiff benefactor Peter "Pies" Thomas has passed away. RIP

[CiaranIrl]

A day will come when we'll have to play an important away game in South Africa. Might be a European knock out game even. The way we're going, the 23 that day might never have played for Leinster in South Africa. I'd definitely send any players that are relatively low on minutes. It feels like we get as many injuries in training as in games, so I don't see it as a risk.

[fourthirtythree]

A day will come when we'll have to play an important away game in South Africa. Might be a European knock out game even. The way we're going, the 23 that day might never have played for Leinster in South Africa. I'd definitely send any players that are relatively low on minutes. It feels like we get as many injuries in training as in games, so I don't see it as a risk.

Sure, and when that day comes the league will have settled down and a squad won't need to be quarantined with Covid, as happened to Munster, or laid out with the shits and pukes, as happened to Ulster.

When we need a result in SA, we'll go for it. Right now Leinster have earned the right to suit themselves.

[FtD]

A day will come when we'll have to play an important away game in South Africa. Might be a European knock out game even. The way we're going, the 23 that day might never have played for Leinster in South Africa. I'd definitely send any players that are relatively low on minutes. It feels like we get as many injuries in training as in games, so I don't see it as a risk.

Oddly on this - I'm pretty sure a lot of our front liners would have never played a game in South Africa, with the exception of the guys who went on the 2016 tour (Tadhg Furlong, Rhys Ruddock, Robbie Henshaw, Dave Kearney), and the guys who went their with the Lions in 2021 (Kelleher - never played, Furlong (again), Jack Conan, Henshaw (again).

I don't think Jonathan Sexton has ever played a game in his career in SA.

[wixfjord]

I would probably send a mix of senior players who likely won't in a knockout 23 (Rhys, Vakh, DK, Turner, Russell, Nick McCarthy) plus guys who could push for a Euro 23 but need game time (Ngatai, TOB, Connors, Milne) along with young players who will get minutes and benefit from the experience (Prendergast, Ben Murphy, Culhane, Soroka, Boyle, Brownlee)

It's a shame but the likes of McKee, Harry, Frawley may not get to go because they're in positions we've shipped injuries.

There's no need to bring anyone who will be in the Ulster matchday panel, extra men included. We've earned the right not to do that.

[cormac]

A day will come when we'll have to play an important away game in South Africa. Might be a European knock out game even. The way we're going, the 23 that day might never have played for Leinster in South Africa. I'd definitely send any players that are relatively low on minutes. It feels like we get as many injuries in training as in games, so I don't see it as a risk.

Oddly on this - I'm pretty sure a lot of our front liners would have never played a game in South Africa, with the exception of the guys who went on the 2016 tour (Tadhg Furlong, Rhys Ruddock, Robbie Henshaw, Dave Kearney), and the guys who went their with the Lions in 2021 (Kelleher - never played, Furlong (again), Jack Conan, Henshaw (again).

I don't think Jonathan Sexton has ever played a game in his career in SA.

There were a few who played there against either the Kings or the Cheetahs. Healy, Porter, Ryan, vd Flier, McGrath, Ross, Gibson-Park

[FtD]

A day will come when we'll have to play an important away game in South Africa. Might be a European knock out game even. The way we're going, the 23 that day might never have played for Leinster in South Africa. I'd definitely send any players that are relatively low on minutes. It feels like we get as many injuries in training as in games, so I don't see it as a risk.

Oddly on this - I'm pretty sure a lot of our front liners would have never played a game in South Africa, with the exception of the guys who went on the 2016 tour (Tadhg Furlong, Rhys Ruddock, Robbie Henshaw, Dave Kearney), and the guys who went their with the Lions in 2021 (Kelleher - never played, Furlong (again), Jack Conan, Henshaw (again).

I don't think Jonathan Sexton has ever played a game in his career in SA.

There were a few who played there against either the Kings or the Cheetahs. Healy, Porter, Ryan, vd Flier, McGrath, Ross, Gibson-Park

yeah, fair call out - from what I can see the following guys played the Cheetahs in 2017: JGP, Cian Healy, JvDF, Jack Conan & Andrew Porter, and the following guys played the Southern Kings in 2018: JGP & Caelan Doris.

Still I think it is the case though that Jonathan Sexton, Garry Ringrose, James Ryan etc have never played a game down there.

[cormac]

Oddly on this - I'm pretty sure a lot of our front liners would have never played a game in South Africa, with the exception of the guys who went on the 2016 tour (Tadhg Furlong, Rhys Ruddock, Robbie Henshaw, Dave Kearney), and the guys who went their with the Lions in 2021 (Kelleher - never played, Furlong (again), Jack Conan, Henshaw (again).

I don't think Jonathan Sexton has ever played a game in his career in SA.

There were a few who played there against either the Kings or the Cheetahs. Healy, Porter, Ryan, vd Flier, McGrath, Ross, Gibson-Park

yeah, fair call out - from what I can see the following guys played the Cheetahs in 2017: JGP, Cian Healy, JvDF, Jack Conan & Andrew Porter, and the following guys played the Southern Kings in 2018: JGP & Caelan Doris.

Still I think it is the case though that Jonathan Sexton, Garry Ringrose, James Ryan etc have never played a game down there.

We played the Kings away in 2017 too.

Carbery; A Byrne, O'Loughlin, Reid, D Kearney; R Byrne, McGrath; E Byrne, Cronin, Porter; Molony, Ryan; Ruddock, Jordi, Conan

Tracy, Healy, Bent, M Kearney, vd Flier, McCarthy, Marsh, Larmour

[paddyor]

Cardiff benefactor Peter "Pies" Thomas has passed away. RIP

And Tony Brown former Newport director and benefactor has passed away.

[hugonaut]

In terms of the URC, my prediction is:
1. Leinster [78]
2. Stormers [70]
3. Ulster [69]
4. Glasgow [64]
5. Bulls [52]
6. Munster [50]
7. Sharks [50]
8. Connacht [45]

• 4th - Glasgow have the Scarlets @ home and Connacht @ home; they will win both matches and finish on 64, taking them a long way out of the reach of fifth.

• 3rd - Ulster have the Dragons @ home and Edinburgh @ home; they will win both matches, taking them out of the reach of fourth.

• 2nd - Stormers have Munster @ home and Treviso @ home – I think it will be 4-1 against Munster and 5-0 against Treviso in tournament points. Ulster could catch them if Munster [who have been hit and miss all season] show up well in SA.

• 1st - Leinster have already sealed 1st place.

From my point of view, the teams in positions 1-4 have their home advantage in the QFs assured.

There are buckets of caveats for the teams below; there is still a lot of uncertainty for the 5th-12th positions and it would be worthwhile for a number of teams to put in 100% effort.

Currently:
5th - Munster [@ Stormers, @ Sharks]: best 58 | worst 48 [current] | predicted 50
6th - Connacht [vs Cardiff, @ Glasgow]: best 54 | worst 44 [current] | predicted 45
7th - Bulls [vs Zebre, vs Leinster]: best 53 | worst 43 [current] | predicted 52
8th - Sharks [vs Benetton, vs Munster]: best 51 | worst 41 [current] | predicted 50
9th - Benetton [@ Sharks, @ Stormers]: best 50 | worst 40 [current] | predicted 40
10th - Cardiff [@ Connacht, @ Ospreys]: best 49 | worst 39 [current] | predicted 44
11th - Lions [vs Leinster, vs Zebre]: best 48 | worst 38 [current] | predicted 44
12th - Ospreys [@ Edinburgh, vs Cardiff]: best 45 | worst 35 [current] | predicted 41

• Munster: you just can't tell. They went toe-to-toe home and away against Toulouse, and then looked completely out of sorts against Glasgow at home [31-0 down at one stage] and the Sharks away [43-14 down at one stage]. I have them with losing BPs in both games, going 1/4 and 1/4.

• Connacht: a mentally weak team. Glasgow are better than them and will whip them in the final round. I think that Cardiff will knock them over in Galway as well, unfortunately. 1/4 vs Cardiff, 0/5 @ Glasgow

• Bulls: Zebre are dead meat: 5/0. Leinster 3rds will give them a game, but I can't see us getting a losing BP: 4/0

• Sharks: I have them beating Benetton Treviso 5/0 and Munster 4/1 in a closer game than the European cup fixture.

• Benetton Treviso: just can't see them getting points against two fully loaded and very strong cup QF teams in SA: 0/5, 0/5

• Cardiff: I reckon they will beat Connacht in the Sportsground, 4/1. I think a fully loaded Ospreys beat them 1/4 though, especially in Swansea.

• Lions: I fancy Leinster's 3rds to edge them 1/4. Then they will beat Zebre 5/0.

• Ospreys: I don't think Edinburgh have any heart at the moment, despite having a good team. They are too far behind to make eighth and while they are at home I just don't see them going full-on. A 2/2 draw between them and then Ospreys to beat Cardiff 4/1.

[Ruckedtobits]

In terms of the URC, my prediction is:
1. Leinster [78]
2. Stormers [70]
3. Ulster [69]
4. Glasgow [64]
5. Bulls [52]
6. Munster [50]
7. Sharks [50]
8. Connacht [45]

• 4th - Glasgow have the Scarlets @ home and Connacht @ home; they will win both matches and finish on 64, taking them a long way out of the reach of fifth.

• 3rd - Ulster have the Dragons @ home and Edinburgh @ home; they will win both matches, taking them out of the reach of fourth.

• 2nd - Stormers have Munster @ home and Treviso @ home – I think it will be 4-1 against Munster and 5-0 against Treviso in tournament points. Ulster could catch them if Munster [who have been hit and miss all season] show up well in SA.

• 1st - Leinster have already sealed 1st place.

From my point of view, the teams in positions 1-4 have their home advantage in the QFs assured.

There are buckets of caveats for the teams below; there is still a lot of uncertainty for the 5th-12th positions and it would be worthwhile for a number of teams to put in 100% effort.

Currently:
5th - Munster [@ Stormers, @ Sharks]: best 58 | worst 48 [current] | predicted 50
6th - Connacht [vs Cardiff, @ Glasgow]: best 54 | worst 44 [current] | predicted 45
7th - Bulls [vs Zebre, vs Leinster]: best 53 | worst 43 [current] | predicted 52
8th - Sharks [vs Benetton, vs Munster]: best 51 | worst 41 [current] | predicted 50
9th - Benetton [@ Sharks, @ Stormers]: best 50 | worst 40 [current] | predicted 40
10th - Cardiff [@ Connacht, @ Ospreys]: best 49 | worst 39 [current] | predicted 44
11th - Lions [vs Leinster, vs Zebre]: best 48 | worst 38 [current] | predicted 44
12th - Ospreys [@ Edinburgh, vs Cardiff]: best 45 | worst 35 [current] | predicted 41

• Munster: you just can't tell. They went toe-to-toe home and away against Toulouse, and then looked completely out of sorts against Glasgow at home [31-0 down at one stage] and the Sharks away [43-14 down at one stage]. I have them with losing BPs in both games, going 1/4 and 1/4.

• Connacht: a mentally weak team. Glasgow are better than them and will whip them in the final round. I think that Cardiff will knock them over in Galway as well, unfortunately. 1/4 vs Cardiff, 0/5 @ Glasgow

• Bulls: Zebre are dead meat: 5/0. Leinster 3rds will give them a game, but I can't see us getting a losing BP: 4/0

• Sharks: I have them beating Benetton Treviso 5/0 and Munster 4/1 in a closer game than the European cup fixture.

• Benetton Treviso: just can't see them getting points against two fully loaded and very strong cup QF teams in SA: 0/5, 0/5

• Cardiff: I reckon they will beat Connacht in the Sportsground, 4/1. I think a fully loaded Ospreys beat them 1/4 though, especially in Swansea.

• Lions: I fancy Leinster's 3rds to edge them 1/4. Then they will beat Zebre 5/0.

• Ospreys: I don't think Edinburgh have any heart at the moment, despite having a good team. They are too far behind to make eighth and while they are at home I just don't see them going full-on. A 2/2 draw between them and then Ospreys to beat Cardiff 4/1.

An excellent post, worthy of The Quickening of old. I hope you're not correct about Cardiff / Connacht as the 'Boys from the West deserve a break given the fixture list they had.

[Schumi]

In terms of the URC, my prediction is:
1. Leinster [78]
2. Stormers [70]
3. Ulster [69]
4. Glasgow [64]
5. Bulls [52]
6. Munster [50]
7. Sharks [50]
8. Connacht [45]

That very closely matches my predictions. I think Connacht will beat Cardiff but still finish 8th. As a pedantic point, Sharks would finish ahead of Munster on games won in your scenario which could be important depending on who wins the Challenge Cup.

[johng]

Interesting Hugo. I'm seeing Connacht beating Cardiff in the sports ground. And Ospreys getting what they need to be the best Welsh region. Could be a close run thing on judgement day though.

*Transfering my comments too.

[paddyor]

Interesting Hugo. I'm seeing Connacht beating Cardiff in the sports ground. And Ospreys getting what they need to be the best Welsh region. Could be a close run thing on judgement day though.

*Transfering my comments too.

I would have said that too but Cardiff ran Treviso a lot closer in the challenge cup. Think they’ll have enough for Connacht.

[hugonaut]

Interesting Hugo. I'm seeing Connacht beating Cardiff in the sports ground. And Ospreys getting what they need to be the best Welsh region. Could be a close run thing on judgement day though.

*Transfering my comments too.

I would have said that too but Cardiff ran Treviso a lot closer in the challenge cup. Think they’ll have enough for Connacht.

I would tentatively have had Connacht winning that one until the bad loss in Treviso. Cardiff did much better against the same oppo.

Granted Connacht are better at home than away, but in two games which they have been under pressure to win this season – away against Newcastle, away against Treviso – they have underperformed badly.

Beyond that, Cardiff are used to a plastic pitch and they have no fear of Connacht.

[johng]

We'll see on Saturday. I'm sure we all hope I'm right.