Comparative performance of professional player development interprovincially

[ronk]

I generally agree with your points btw.

And also I am not comfortable with making contracted players move, or coercing them to. Expecting players to this is just treating symptoms of an issue (again many people legitimately feel that this is NOT an issue) and also unenforceable.

My only suggestion, and a I’ve no right to dictate that this is the correct view, is controlling the variables (number of players in different stages of development per position, contract length strategy etc) that create scenarios where this comes up in a way that would benefit every stakeholder.

A once in a lifetime confluence of events led to Leinster's 5th choice hooker who has only played once for Leinster starting 5 games for Ireland, playing in a sold out Croke Park, playing for Emerging Ireland, getting into the Ireland squad, getting picked to start against Fiji to avoid overplaying Kelleher and then having a career day while playing 80 minutes and ending up in the backrow.

What sort of strategies are we thinking about that could have done any better in the circumstances?

There are plenty of Irish hookers who would have worked hard for years to get a chance like Gus, some of them were available. I'll keep saying it, do we change the ones whose development is so ahead their 5th choice hooker just started for Ireland, or do the ones whose hookers all stayed home the ones who need to change?

The whole debate is backwards.

[AILtragic]

Well yes unusual circumstances lead to this example and nothing can stop any issues like this happening without being too restrictive. I am talking in generalisations rather than any specific player, particular this one.

The reality is that Leinster has an abundance of talent that we can’t possibly develop, and others have a dearth of talent coming through covering all positions. Many of us, and I suspect you are one of those (which is a valid position) feel that this isn’t a problem and it isn’t our problem. So fundamentally our perspectives are different and I feel all that will happen is we keep repeating ourselves.

[ronk]

3 out of 4 of the U20 props from a few of the 2022 games are Munster lads.

Munster's academy has 4 props and 2 hookers all with respectable U20 records. Sheahan has 16 U20 caps.

Munster have talent. Hadden and Foxe came through Leinster sub academy.

Munster signed Clarke and the result is Scott Buckley is slowly slipping out of the squad.

Trying to sign a hooker every year means that Munster don't really need to commit to the ones they have. Why take all that risk and do all that work when you just want to sign someone better.

It's not that I don't care. I have a different (opposite) view of the best way to address it.

[paddyor]

3 out of 4 of the U20 props from a few of the 2022 games are Munster lads.

Munster's academy has 4 props and 2 hookers all with respectable U20 records. Sheahan has 16 U20 caps.

Munster have talent. Hadden and Foxe came through Leinster sub academy.

Munster signed Clarke and the result is Scott Buckley is slowly slipping out of the squad.

Trying to sign a hooker every year means that Munster don't really need to commit to the ones they have. Why take all that risk and do all that work when you just want to sign someone better.

It's not that I don't care. I have a different (opposite) view of the best way to address it.

Why bother with Buckley if you're just going to sign McKee when his contract is up at the end of the year.

[Dexter]

I generally agree with your points btw.

And also I am not comfortable with making contracted players move, or coercing them to. Expecting players to this is just treating symptoms of an issue (again many people legitimately feel that this is NOT an issue) and also unenforceable.

My only suggestion, and a I’ve no right to dictate that this is the correct view, is controlling the variables (number of players in different stages of development per position, contract length strategy etc) that create scenarios where this comes up in a way that would benefit every stakeholder.

A once in a lifetime confluence of events led to Leinster's 5th choice hooker who has only played once for Leinster starting 5 games for Ireland, playing in a sold out Croke Park, playing for Emerging Ireland, getting into the Ireland squad, getting picked to start against Fiji to avoid overplaying Kelleher and then having a career day while playing 80 minutes and ending up in the backrow.

What sort of strategies are we thinking about that could have done any better in the circumstances?

There are plenty of Irish hookers who would have worked hard for years to get a chance like Gus, some of them were available. I'll keep saying it, do we change the ones whose development is so ahead their 5th choice hooker just started for Ireland, or do the ones whose hookers all stayed home the ones who need to change?

The whole debate is backwards.

Totally with your points in this post and your previous post. Very well put.
If only "Journos" and "pundits" were able to think as clearly as that and express it properly.

[ronk]

3 out of 4 of the U20 props from a few of the 2022 games are Munster lads.

Munster's academy has 4 props and 2 hookers all with respectable U20 records. Sheahan has 16 U20 caps.

Munster have talent. Hadden and Foxe came through Leinster sub academy.

Munster signed Clarke and the result is Scott Buckley is slowly slipping out of the squad.

Trying to sign a hooker every year means that Munster don't really need to commit to the ones they have. Why take all that risk and do all that work when you just want to sign someone better.

It's not that I don't care. I have a different (opposite) view of the best way to address it.

Why bother with Buckley if you're just going to sign McKee when his contract is up at the end of the year.

It's worse than that. Why bother with Buckley if it makes it harder to sign McKee.

[ronk]

Salanoa and Aungier were promising Leinster players who went to Munster and Connacht.

Tom Clarkson stayed.

Sam Illo bypassed the academy, took a dev deal in Connacht and has 1 start for them.

Clarkson is the only one capped. Population isn't a factor here, schools aren't a factor here, easy gametime in a less competitive environment isn't a factor. Clarkson wasn't any more of an underage superstar than any of them. This is the most high profile position for player development for over 10 years. There are rules specifically for props.

The same province that developed Clarkson developed most of the Ireland team too. The province that's best at development did best at development because it's the best at development.

It's that simple.

[Keith]

Salanoa and Aungier were promising Leinster players who went to Munster and Connacht.

Tom Clarkson stayed.

Sam Illo bypassed the academy, took a dev deal in Connacht and has 1 start for them.

Clarkson is the only one capped. Population isn't a factor here, schools aren't a factor here, easy gametime in a less competitive environment isn't a factor. Clarkson wasn't any more of an underage superstar than any of them. This is the most high profile position for player development for over 10 years. There are rules specifically for props.

The same province that developed Clarkson developed most of the Ireland team too. The province that's best at development did best at development because it's the best at development.

It's that simple.

Excellent point. Even when Clarkson got selected for his first cap, there was tons of outrage on online from other provincial fans. That went away pretty quickly after he played.

[ronk]

Oddly enough as well as making Leo look like a genius again, it also reflects very well on Humphreys.

Having a genuine international tighthead break through so soon after his risky policy change gives him something he can point to that makes it a success.

It's unfortunate that some remarkable evidence for why Leinster should be trusted will and has been twisted into a case for interference.

Interfere lots in the provinces that are behind in player development, especially when they're recalcitrant. Give the one that's overperforming all the support it needs.

[Schumi]

Pointing to Clarkson to say "look how successful my policy of not signing NIQ props is" while Leinster have an NIQ prop in that position would be a bit bizarre.

[ronk]

Pointing to Clarkson to say "look how successful my policy of not signing NIQ props is" while Leinster have an NIQ prop in that position would be a bit bizarre.

I still expect it to happen.

McGuire played yesterday, Clarkson has 2 caps. We're looking reasonably well placed for next year.

Moore retiring is an issue but Ulster have O'Toole (beginning to look like he'll stick a tighthead) and Wilson.

Munster probably can get a temporary reprieve (10+ years and going) by blaming the outgoing coaches and asking not to hand an impossible situation to an incoming coach (who might balk).

[naraic]

Pointing to Clarkson to say "look how successful my policy of not signing NIQ props is" while Leinster have an NIQ prop in that position would be a bit bizarre.

I still expect it to happen.

McGuire played yesterday, Clarkson has 2 caps. We're looking reasonably well placed for next year.

Moore retiring is an issue but Ulster have O'Toole (beginning to look like he'll stick a tighthead) and Wilson.

Munster probably can get a temporary reprieve (10+ years and going) by blaming the outgoing coaches and asking not to hand an impossible situation to an incoming coach (who might balk).

The IRFU should be reasonably happy about TH in the medium term with Furlong, Bealham Jager, O'Toole backed up by Clarkson, Aungier and Wilson.

At Loosehead its a different story in my opinion. Once Healy is gone its Porter backed up by Loughman and then a big step back to young Milne/Boyle aging Buckley with Warwick and EOS in the frame too to serve as depth.

Maybe the old 3 (Kilcoyne, Archer and Ryan) and Salanoa and McSweeney who are permanently injured all retire.

Munster would have Jager and Loughman as decent quality props. Then they would have Wycherly, Ryan Donnelly and Hadden as depth losseheads and could sign someone between Jager and Foxe (who would be the depth tighthead).

The big problem that Munster have getting a NIQ prop passed the IRFU is that they don't make a plan to develop anyone when they want a signing.

If Munster clear the decks of those just hanging on they can make a plan to rotate a NIQ TH with their frontline Jager and give minutes to a developing TH too.

[hugonaut]

Tom Ahern hasn't progressed like he should have. Phenomenal size, athletic marvel ... significant lack of progression. He should be in the test mix by now. He was one of two players [with Jamie Osborne] selected to train with the 2021 Autumn Series squad three years ago as development players [source: https://www.irishrugby.ie/2021/10/20/ir ... ns-series/ ].

Not too late for him by any means, but he's uncapped at 24 and I think it is more likely than not that he will turn 25 without a cap. I would've eaten my hat if you had told me that in March 2020, after his brilliant performances for the Irish U20s in the Junior Six Nations.

As one of my brothers pointed out, he was training with the Irish squad in November 2021 and three years later he's player for Munster 'A' on a Friday afternoon in Lakelands. You can toss all the word salad that you want at that: it's regression.

If he is to win a cap before he turns 25 [halfway through the Six Nations], he really has to get motoring over the next block of games: that's Stade Francais [H] & Castres [A] in the cup, then Ulster [A] and Leinster [H] in the league, then Saracens [H] and Saints [A] in the cup.

Henderson debuted as a 20 year old, Ryan as a 20 year old, Baird as a 21 year old, McCarthy as a 21 year old. That reinforces how far behind the curve he is. We're not talking about 12 or 18 months ... we're talking 36, 42, 48 months.

[jimbobjoe]

Tom Ahern hasn't progressed like he should have. Phenomenal size, athletic marvel ... significant lack of progression. He should be in the test mix by now. He was one of two players [with Jamie Osborne] selected to train with the 2021 Autumn Series squad three years ago as development players [source: https://www.irishrugby.ie/2021/10/20/ir ... ns-series/ ].

Not too late for him by any means, but he's uncapped at 24 and I think it is more likely than not that he will turn 25 without a cap. I would've eaten my hat if you had told me that in March 2020, after his brilliant performances for the Irish U20s in the Junior Six Nations.

As one of my brothers pointed out, he was training with the Irish squad in November 2021 and three years later he's player for Munster 'A' on a Friday afternoon in Lakelands. You can toss all the word salad that you want at that: it's regression.

If he is to win a cap before he turns 25 [halfway through the Six Nations], he really has to get motoring over the next block of games: that's Stade Francais [H] & Castres [A] in the cup, then Ulster [A] and Leinster [H] in the league, then Saracens [H] and Saints [A] in the cup.

Henderson debuted as a 20 year old, Ryan as a 20 year old, Baird as a 21 year old, McCarthy as a 21 year old. That reinforces how far behind the curve he is. We're not talking about 12 or 18 months ... we're talking 36, 42, 48 months.

Do injuries have any impact on this? I may be incorrectly remembering but I think he's had one or two at inopportune times i.e. test windows.

[hugonaut]

The other player about whom I have a bee in my bonnet is Aaron Sexton.

He's heading off to chance his arm at getting into American Football now, and to be honest I don't blame him. Ulster have completely f*cked his rugby career.

2024-25: 0+0, 0 mins [Senior Contract #2]
2023-24: 1+2, 101 mins [Senior Contract #2]
2022-23: 3+2, 233 mins [Senior Contract #1]
2021-22: 0+2, 28 mins [Senior Contract #1]
2020-21: 0+1, 72 mins [Development Contract]

4+7, 434 mins. That's less than five and a half full games ... in five years. You could play that many minutes in one month if the weekends fall on the right dates.

Two important questions that Ulster Rugby need to ask themselves and answer honestly:
1] If you don't want to select a player, why do you want to contract him for two years?
2] If you can't make a productive winger out of literally the fastest player ever to player rugby in Ireland – who has great size for the position [188cm/95kg], who was an Irish U18 Schools and Irish U18 Sevens representative, as well as the Ulster 'A' Player of the year in his sole season in the academy - should you be coaching players at pro level?

With regards to his own motivation, the people who have coached him don't have enough good things to say about him:

"Just an excellent athlete, very quick, very talented, pure speed and strength, and a lovely natured guy as well" - David Kennedy, his coach at Bangor Grammar in 2019 [source: https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/rugby/ ... -1.3909935 ]

"He's got a lot to learn, which he will do because he's a good learner. He's a really nice fella. He works hard, he's desperate to do well, which is the essence of what we need. I know he'll squeeze every drop and progress as a player over the next few years but we certainly shouldn't be expecting great things from Aaron now." - Dan McFarland, his Ulster coach in 2021 [source: https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/spor ... 15692.html]

The other thing is, I've seen Aaron Sexton play. Seen him play for Ulster 'A', since him play for 'Hinch. He can play rugby. He's good. And he is lightning quick. Ulster did an unbelievably sh*t job with him.

[Oldschoolsocks]

Tom Ahern hasn't progressed like he should have. Phenomenal size, athletic marvel ... significant lack of progression. He should be in the test mix by now. He was one of two players [with Jamie Osborne] selected to train with the 2021 Autumn Series squad three years ago as development players [source: https://www.irishrugby.ie/2021/10/20/ir ... ns-series/ ].

Not too late for him by any means, but he's uncapped at 24 and I think it is more likely than not that he will turn 25 without a cap. I would've eaten my hat if you had told me that in March 2020, after his brilliant performances for the Irish U20s in the Junior Six Nations.

As one of my brothers pointed out, he was training with the Irish squad in November 2021 and three years later he's player for Munster 'A' on a Friday afternoon in Lakelands. You can toss all the word salad that you want at that: it's regression.

If he is to win a cap before he turns 25 [halfway through the Six Nations], he really has to get motoring over the next block of games: that's Stade Francais [H] & Castres [A] in the cup, then Ulster [A] and Leinster [H] in the league, then Saracens [H] and Saints [A] in the cup.

Henderson debuted as a 20 year old, Ryan as a 20 year old, Baird as a 21 year old, McCarthy as a 21 year old. That reinforces how far behind the curve he is. We're not talking about 12 or 18 months ... we're talking 36, 42, 48 months.

I read somewhere that he can’t train after matches, he just can’t recover. Whether that’s true or not I don’t know and whether it’s down to how Munster were training I also don’t know…

[naraic]

I read somewhere that he can’t train after matches, he just can’t recover. Whether that’s true or not I don’t know and whether it’s down to how Munster were training I also don’t know…

The only source I've seen for that is Paddyor of this forum and I believe he was talking about the start of his career.

[ronk]

I read somewhere that he can’t train after matches, he just can’t recover. Whether that’s true or not I don’t know and whether it’s down to how Munster were training I also don’t know…

The only source I've seen for that is Paddyor of this forum and I believe he was talking about the start of his career.

Ahern played 23 games in a row for Muster last season. Whatever their S&C team were doing with him was working for getting him on the pitch.

Also made it all the more surprising that he stalled the way he did for Ireland.

[paddyor]

I read somewhere that he can’t train after matches, he just can’t recover. Whether that’s true or not I don’t know and whether it’s down to how Munster were training I also don’t know…

The only source I've seen for that is Paddyor of this forum and I believe he was talking about the start of his career.

My source is from a Munster fan on the 42 WhatsApp and Murray kinsella semi confirmed it on the pod after that. n. TBC, it was a problem he had at the start of his career and it stalled his development. It was the reason they signed Jenkins supposedly.

He’s been a perennial victim of munsters start of season injury pox at the wrong time for about 3 seasons. Think he was a panellist in 22 or 23 and missed out with injury.

[paddyor]

Tom Ahern hasn't progressed like he should have. Phenomenal size, athletic marvel ... significant lack of progression. He should be in the test mix by now. He was one of two players [with Jamie Osborne] selected to train with the 2021 Autumn Series squad three years ago as development players [source: https://www.irishrugby.ie/2021/10/20/ir ... ns-series/ ].

Not too late for him by any means, but he's uncapped at 24 and I think it is more likely than not that he will turn 25 without a cap. I would've eaten my hat if you had told me that in March 2020, after his brilliant performances for the Irish U20s in the Junior Six Nations.

As one of my brothers pointed out, he was training with the Irish squad in November 2021 and three years later he's player for Munster 'A' on a Friday afternoon in Lakelands. You can toss all the word salad that you want at that: it's regression.

If he is to win a cap before he turns 25 [halfway through the Six Nations], he really has to get motoring over the next block of games: that's Stade Francais [H] & Castres [A] in the cup, then Ulster [A] and Leinster [H] in the league, then Saracens [H] and Saints [A] in the cup.

Henderson debuted as a 20 year old, Ryan as a 20 year old, Baird as a 21 year old, McCarthy as a 21 year old. That reinforces how far behind the curve he is. We're not talking about 12 or 18 months ... we're talking 36, 42, 48 months.

Yeah if you go back and look at that 20s team he was the standout forward and you’d have bet he’d be the forst to be capped. 5 players have been capped from that team(6 kind of if Izzy had been in the team). Which is a lot. So statistically the odds are probably against him. Been passed out by Stewart, Clarkson, macacrthy, prendergast, and Crowley.

His body could t quite cope with pro rugby and he struggled to train the week after a match. I don’t know anymore than that. Maybe he was carrying too much weight or whatever.