6 Nations 2023 - Ireland

[wixfjord]

Conan has been really good against Ospreys and Racing recently. His form has come back up so no issues with him being on the bench.

I do think Baird should and will be given a shot in this tournament though, he's an incredible bench option.

[ronk]

Conan has been really good against Ospreys and Racing recently. His form has come back up so no issues with him being on the bench.

I do think Baird should and will be given a shot in this tournament though, he's an incredible bench option.

I'd have Conan closer to unlucky not to be starting than lucky to be in the 23.

[sunshiner1]

by munster#1

15. Hugo Keenan (Leinster/UCD) 25 caps
14. Mack Hansen (Connacht) 8 caps
13. Garry Ringrose (Leinster/UCD) 47 caps
12. Stuart McCloskey (Ulster/Bangor) 9 caps
11. James Lowe (Leinster) 15 caps
10. Johnny Sexton (Leinster/St Mary’s College) 109 caps (c)
9. Jamison Gibson Park (Leinster) 23 caps

1. Andrew Porter (Leinster/UCD) 48 caps
2. Dan Sheehan (Leinster/Lansdowne) 13 caps
3. Finlay Bealham (Connacht/Buccaneers) 27 caps
4. Tadhg Beirne (Munster/Lansdowne) 36 caps
5. James Ryan (Leinster/UCD) 48 caps
6. Peter O’Mahony (Munster/Cork Constitution) 89 caps
7. Josh van der Flier (Leinster/UCD) 45 caps
8. Caelan Doris (Leinster/St Mary’s College) 23 caps

Replacements:

16. Rob Herring (Ulster/Ballynahinch) 31 caps
17. Cian Healy (Leinster/Clontarf) 121 caps
18. Tom O’Toole (Ulster/Ballynahinch) 4 caps
19. Iain Henderson (Ulster/Academy) 68 caps
20. Jack Conan (Leinster/Old Belvedere) 33 caps
21. Conor Murray (Munster/Garryowen) 100 caps
22. Ross Byrne (Leinster/UCD) 4 caps
23. Bundee Aki (Connacht/Galwegians) 41 caps

Some big calls there. With full respect to Henderson and Conan I would have neither of them on the bench at the moment. Henderson due to match fitness and my preference for Conan is for him to start. Think we'll have enough to beat the Welsh but it will be a close one.

Big shout out to Bealham for starting his first international game.

[Laighin Break]

Big shout out to Bealham for starting his first international game.

Starting his first Six Nations game. He has a number of starts against "Tier 2" nations (plus Japan)

[RoboProp]

I think Gats and Wales will be missing Shaun Edwards. I have heard that they have a new ex-league Northerner, fingers crossed he hasn't hit the straps just yet

[Ruckedtobits]

Just re-watched Leicester v Ospreys Heino Cup game (our URC game against them was irrelevant because of the pack we fielded). Ospreys selected Nicky Smith & Dewi Lake in front-row with Gareth Thomas & Baldwin on the bench. Also, they were missing Adam Beard from match day Squad.

According to Ospreys fans site, Dewi Lake (now injured) is just shy of 2 st heavier than Ken Owens. Gareth Thomas is just shy of 19 St & a full stone heavier than Nicky Smith. A real bruiser but not as technical as Smith.

Ospreys line-out defensive maul against Leicester was superb. They kept Leicester out off 5 mauls within 10m out. However, they committed all eight forwards each time, as Ireland did against S Africa. As a consequence the Leicester scrum-half scored a try by taking on flanker Morgan on a flat diagonal run. However, that was the only time Ospreys defence was breached from a line-out maul.

Conversely, they scored a try themselves off a line-out maul.

Looking at the Welsh line-up, nothing about their backline looks like it has real line-breaking ability and Gatland's previous record with Wales shows a high proportion of maul tries.

Given the side and experience he has selected up front, I expect them to:
1. Attack our line-outs with AWJ, Faletou and Morgan
2. Use Tipuric at front of line-out to set-up attacking mauls from their line-outs. With this tactic, their heaviest & strongest forwards are on the ground to drive the maul immediately.
3. Defend any maul with all 8 forwards attempting to drive us into touch.

I expect a dog fight with lots of penalties as Karl Dickson is reknowned for fast penalties at breakdown. We will attempt to play a fast, multi-phase attacking game within their half. I expect Lowe, Hansen & Keenan to kick long into their half from most possession in our half. Our back-rows' ability to maintain continuity in our attacks should be the key to our attacking. However, don't be surprised to see Sexton use a couple of short chip kicks to keep their rushing defence honest.

Outcome, impossible to tell because of Gatland, Owens & AWJ' s ability to inspire Welsh teams at home to play beyond themselves. Scoring early and getting 10 pts ahead would ease the nerves. This doesn't look like a Welsh team set up to come from behind.

However, that's also what Leicester thought about Ospreys, until the 89th minute!

[wixfjord]

Salanoa called up to cover for Furlong according to Berch.

Fair play to the lad, you wonder if JVG had've given him more opportunity would he be challenging for the 23 by now?

On the other hand, TOT/Salanoa/Bealham are our next THs in line now behind Furlong which is clearly a massive drop down.

I really hope they're being extra cautious with Tadhg's injury rather than it being something recurring or chronic.

[backrower8]

Furlong out, Liam Williams in, roof closed is a treble negative as far as I am concerned. Add to that the crustiness of Sexton, Lowe, Henderson & Aki.

Drico referenced on OTB how the roof being closed increased the noise levels and made the ball slippier and harder to handle.

Not sure why we would opt for the stadium roof to be closed as Faz suggests he did. More home creowd noise, more moisture on the ball and handling errors...more scrums...more grind and catching of breath by the Welsh over 34 club

[munster#1]

I have went to almost every Wales v Ireland game since my late teens, and I have never seen so many tickets available for this game.

Not sure if the drop off in interest is from this side of the Irish Sea or not?

[wixfjord]

Furlong out, Liam Williams in, roof closed is a treble negative as far as I am concerned. Add to that the crustiness of Sexton, Lowe, Henderson & Aki.

Drico referenced on OTB how the roof being closed increased the noise levels and made the ball slippier and harder to handle.

Not sure why we would opt for the stadium roof to be closed as Faz suggests he did. More home creowd noise, more moisture on the ball and handling errors...more scrums...more grind and catching of breath by the Welsh over 34 club

Both teams have to agree to it being closed.

Farrell said:

"It’s fantastic. It can only be good for us.

We have to agree with the roof being closed. We wanted it closed as well to sample the atmosphere and keep progressing on our journey.”

That's a brilliant positive mentality and exactly what you want. No excuses, bring on the Welsh and a great test in a cauldron for our guys.

We're the fitter, more mobile team and our handling is better so let's go for it, keep high ball in play and make them react to our game.

We handled it ok in Dunedin during the summer.

[FLIP]

I have went to almost every Wales v Ireland game since my late teens, and I have never seen so many tickets available for this game.

Not sure if the drop off in interest is from this side of the Irish Sea or not?

Prices have gone up and Welsh fans less interested due to that and other WRU issues

[mildlyinterested]

Furlong has been f%~ked since the Lions.

[Laighin Break]

Furlong out, Liam Williams in, roof closed is a treble negative as far as I am concerned. Add to that the crustiness of Sexton, Lowe, Henderson & Aki.

Drico referenced on OTB how the roof being closed increased the noise levels and made the ball slippier and harder to handle.

Not sure why we would opt for the stadium roof to be closed as Faz suggests he did. More home creowd noise, more moisture on the ball and handling errors...more scrums...more grind and catching of breath by the Welsh over 34 club

Both teams have to agree to it being closed.

Farrell said:

"It’s fantastic. It can only be good for us.

We have to agree with the roof being closed. We wanted it closed as well to sample the atmosphere and keep progressing on our journey.”

That's a brilliant positive mentality and exactly what you want. No excuses, bring on the Welsh and a great test in a cauldron for our guys.

We're the fitter, more mobile team and our handling is better so let's go for it, keep high ball in play and make them react to our game.

We handled it ok in Dunedin during the summer.

Interesting insights into Faz's logic. Perhaps looking ahead to playing a RWC knockout game against France in the Stade de France

[Dave Cahill]

He thinks that with the roof closed we can run the air out of the Welsh who were reported as not being the fittest horses in the paddock

[wixfjord]

He thinks that with the roof closed we can run the air out of the Welsh who were reported as not being the fittest horses in the paddock

We should have a good fitness advantage on their front 5 certainly. Besides the golden oldies in AWJ and Owens they have two very large and not hugely dynamic props.

[RoboProp]

Furlong has been f%~ked since the Lions.

I getting flashbacks of CJ Van Der Linde. I hope to duck I'm wrong

[IanD]

Prepare for an avalanche of data.

BBC News - Six Nations 2023: 'Smart' rugby ball being trialled in competition
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/rugby-union/64351834

[cormac]

Furlong has been f%~ked since the Lions.

I getting flashbacks of CJ Van Der Linde.

Whatever gets you through the night.

[RoboProp]

Furlong has been f%~ked since the Lions.

I getting flashbacks of CJ Van Der Linde.

Whatever gets you through the night.

What I meant is the injury profile that eventually lead to the inevitable, I hope that I'm wrong.

[riocard911]

Furlong has been f%~ked since the Lions.

Well is sure is notable, that we've haven't seen as much of Furlong, Henshaw and Conan since their return from Safferland compared to Sexton and Ringrose, who, having "missed out" going on the BIL tour, have practically been playing the best rugby of their careers since the full pre-season they enjoyed with Leinster in the summer and autumn of 2021.

I read all this stuff recently about Johnny being "gutted" about not being picked for the Lions and Gatland thinking it may have been a mistake to leave him at home. That's all very well in hindsight, but J10 wasn't in the best of form at the end of the 2020/21 season. Perhaps he was carrying a niggle. Very possibly he mightn'd have been able to produce the form against the Boks, that he subsequently showed having an enjoyed the summer off and a full pre-season at Leinster. Plus he could have come home seriously crocked... Sexton according to himself was "gutted", but with my Leinster and Ireland hats on I was absolutely delighted, when it was announced he wasn't being brought on that tour.