Ireland Autumn Internationals 2021

Oldschool · Post by **Oldschool** » October 23rd, 2021, 5:44 pm

Or for the sake of the excercise you can pick your two fifteens (privately even) and see how we stack up from your own perspective or judgement.
You might even arrive at a simple summary that three of our players make the grade and rank that three against the other teams that have players in the list of 30.
Players I would consider but not necessarily include would be.
Keenan, Zebo, Ringrose, Henshaw, Conan, Ryan, Furlong and Porter. That's 8 contenders but realistically 4/5 would be on a short list which would be a very good level of representation.
If we're looking at a possible RWC thirty then Kelleher might be in with a shout.

hugonaut · Post by **hugonaut** » October 23rd, 2021, 6:40 pm

I think you all forgot about Alan Spicer, lads.

Ruckedtobits · Post by **Ruckedtobits** » October 23rd, 2021, 7:25 pm

The current "form" out-half who's Irish qualified is Jackson. The IRFU should confirm that his exile has been completed and allow him to be selected for Ireland so that he can play as well as he did today for LI versus Exeter.

Dave Cahill · Post by **Dave Cahill** » October 23rd, 2021, 7:34 pm

Ruckedtobits wrote: ↑October 23rd, 2021, 7:25 pm The current "form" out-half who's Irish qualified is Jackson. The IRFU should confirm that his exile has been completed and allow him to be selected for Ireland so that he can play as well as he did today for LI versus Exeter.

He will never play for Ireland or an Irish team again. Whether that's right or wrong is another matter and opinions will vary, but thats the reality.

Oldschool · Post by **Oldschool** » October 23rd, 2021, 8:07 pm

Dave Cahill wrote: ↑October 23rd, 2021, 7:34 pm
Ruckedtobits wrote: ↑October 23rd, 2021, 7:25 pm The current "form" out-half who's Irish qualified is Jackson. The IRFU should confirm that his exile has been completed and allow him to be selected for Ireland so that he can play as well as he did today for LI versus Exeter.
He will never play for Ireland or an Irish team again. Whether that's right or wrong is another matter and opinions will vary, but thats the reality.

Yeah it's not going to happen so little point in bringing it up.

fourthirtythree · Post by **fourthirtythree** » October 23rd, 2021, 8:09 pm

Dave Cahill wrote: ↑October 23rd, 2021, 7:34 pm
Ruckedtobits wrote: ↑October 23rd, 2021, 7:25 pm The current "form" out-half who's Irish qualified is Jackson. The IRFU should confirm that his exile has been completed and allow him to be selected for Ireland so that he can play as well as he did today for LI versus Exeter.
He will never play for Ireland or an Irish team again. Whether that's right or wrong is another matter and opinions will vary, but thats the reality.

Yup. Sponsors have spoken and that's that.

With a full stop and a that's all she wrote.

alanair · Post by **alanair** » October 24th, 2021, 12:47 am

USA 14 -NZ 104 tonight….. This is a terrible score for World Rugby… seriously , why wouldn’t NZ ‘de-power’ their team , to make this more of a spectacle ?
Neither team would have learned anything from this ‘match’

Ruckedtobits · Post by **Ruckedtobits** » October 24th, 2021, 3:28 pm

The Aussie victory by 23-32 over the Brave Blossoms yesterday was of far more relevance to Ireland's forthcoming games. The Blossoms looked fit and strong and although never threatening to win, they provided a real contest and were going strong in the final quarter.

This was the fifth win in a row for the Aussies which include victories over both S Africa and NZ. Certainly Faz will have to select a full-strength team to face the Blossoms the weak before NZ. No soft caps in this Autumn Series and Ireland will have to carefully review the tape of their Summer game against these opponents.

OTT · Post by **OTT** » October 24th, 2021, 5:19 pm

Andy Farrell is both an extremely conservative and also a notably loyal selector (tell us something we don’t know!). Prior to this squad selection he has had 4 previous windows covering 16 games to build his squad and bring in new players and develop the way we are going to play.

Generally the incumbent keeps his spot unless he gets injured or suspended with the odd exception.

In the back 3 we have had 7 different players start over the 16 games with Lowe being the only incumbent getting what you could say as outright dropped when fit from one match to the next. Keenan has become Faz’s rock since his debut, playing the last 13 games in a row (9 at fullback and 4 on the wing). Stockdale is the only back 3 player to start under Farrell to have been left out of the latest squad which would indicate to me that the inclusion of Zebo and the effort to get him back to Munster very much increases his chances of being in the preferred 15 going forward. The inclusion of Balacoune (1 start) is great to see but going on past selections it is hard to see him making much of a push on the 15.

Back 3 starters under Farrell

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At centre Farrell has started 6 different centres over the 16 game but in reality it has very much been a which 2 is fit out of 3 scenario between Henshaw (10 starts), Aki (8 starts) and Ringrose (6 starts) and then break glass if needed. Of the other 8 available starts Chris Farrell has been the preferred big man (4 starts) with McCloskey (3) and Hume (1) getting his first cap in the Summer. To move the squad forward I would hope that Hume and Frawley would be afforded any spare minutes over McCloskey who was not the answer in the past, is not the answer in the present and is not going to be the answer in the future (personal opinion). He seems to be there because he’s been around the squads in the past, fine but lets not waste the matches on him either.

Centre starters under Farrell

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Number 10, same as it ever was, Sexton has been a go to man for Farrell starting 11 games out of 16 (not bad for a guy who is always injured). Burns (2 starts) and Ross Byrne (1 start) seem to have been place holders as Carbery got the nod for the 2 summer games without having to show any level of form his inclusion and that of Harry who has played very little rugby as opposed to Ross or Burns means Joey is still very much seen as the heir to the throne, brave or stupid? Time will tell. Healey doing a lot of things right seems to have not counted for much.

Fly Half starters under Farrell

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At scrum half there have only been 3 guys who have started under Faz- Murray (9), JGP (6) and Casey (1). The wars on Leinster fans about our best 9 go back and forth and on the other forums who just attack any player who wears Blue they must not know Farrell if they didn’t think he would stick with JGP who besides starting 6 games has benched on 5 other occasions (for 10 games 6+4 and one unused). Farrell has been brave and backed Casey again as his 3rd choice so hopefully he will get to add to his 3 caps (1 start and 2 sub appearances).

Starters at SH under Farrell

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Huge opportunity in the back row, CJ had 13 starts (9 at No.8 and 4 at 6) under Faz has left a nice big hole for someone to fill. Due to injuries the 6 jersey changed a lot as well over the 16 games with 5 different players starting a game there. We now have basically a new player in Conan (1 start) and a young guy in Coombes (1 start) who both look like they are going to push hard for the first 15. At the start of Farrell’s reign it looked like a matter of time before POM exited stage left starting the first game on the bench but whatever people think about him he has been involved in 12 (7+5) games and got himself suspended for a period so Farrell is clearly still a big fan. Doris is also more or less an ever present when fit playing 9 (8+1). Josh looks a sure bet at 7 with his provincial rival Connors generally being the main rival for the jersey out injured. Timoney got his 1 cap at 7 in the summer, he has earned the place through a lot of hard work over a number of seasons, he has been Ulster’s go to forward so far this season, just reward. I think JOD is unfortunate to be left but the quality he is up against is very high.

Starters in the back row under Farrell

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Looking at Lock, I was a bit surprised myself when I saw that JR had started 14 games under Farrell, no one has started more. Henderson seems to be his favoured partner (8 starts) when fit. We can’t dismiss Beirne either who has been involved in 10 games (8+2) switching between 6 and lock. Roux who was involved a bit (2+2)has jumped ship. I would have preferred to see Ahern/Molony or Wycherley get in ahead of Dillane (1+4 under Farrell ) he’s not going to make the big games (I strongly suspect) and reward the other lads efforts with the spare minutes. Baird (1+4) getting the young buck role at lock is probably a bit lucky as well but his talent and ability is unquestionable.

Starters at lock under Farrell

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TH…so Furlong (6+2) takes an invincibility potion and that is that sorted! Bealham started 2 games under Farrell (1 at LH and 1 at TH) and subbed in 6 others. It is hard to think he is now the solution to the 18 jersey. Tom O’Toole (1 start) come forth and conquer, we all want you to make it.

TH Starters under Farrell

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HK. It has been the Herring and Kelleher show in the 16 games so far sharing all the starts (11 Herring, 5 Kelleher). I think it is the right call to bring in Sheehan over Heffernan who he wasn’t going to give much game time to anyway going on past squads.

HK starters under Farrell

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LH, two of Farrell’s go to warriors Healy (11+3) and Porter (8+6) both only missing the summer games look like they will be going head to head on the loose head side now. Another Farrell loyalist Kilcoyne looked like he had finally gained control of the starting jersey but with Porter there now that looks short lived.

LH starters under Farrell

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Conclusion:

20 backs have started a game under Farrell the ones not in this squad are

Henshaw injured
Farrell injured
Stockdale dropped?
Burns place holder
R. Byrne place holder

24 forwards have started over the 16 games the ones not in the latest squad

Stander retired
Connors injured
Ruddock place holder
Roux unavailable
Toner place holder

We all want Ireland to be successful, we all want Farrell to be successful, loyalty is something most of us cherish in our life at home and work but is Farrell’s loyalty going to bite him in the ass. Keenan and Kelleher are the 2 outlier's in the squad in that they both have come in uncapped and become mainstays under Farrell but you feel if there had not of been an injury Keenan might not have got the chance and Kelleher was coming into a position where we were extremely shy after Best's retirement. The other young/new players have generally had token involvements even caps off the bench are usually enforced or extremely limited. The only real Farrell man who has not made the squad who appears fit and available is Stockdale, after 2 years how have more lads not forced their way in. There is an apathy around the Irish squad at the minute you can see it from the lack of interest on here, has the ultimate leader and team man gone to narrow or will his perseverance and loyalty finally click into some consistency.

Edited for corrections

ronk · Post by **ronk** » October 24th, 2021, 5:35 pm

good analysis. For most it was 14 games due to the Lions clash this summer and the number of players rested.

Things that stand out for me are how little Conan played for Faz before getting picked for the Lions and how much Connors got picked given the length of time he's been injured.

Also, I still liked the propping balance a bit better with Porter on the other side.

hugonaut · Post by **hugonaut** » October 24th, 2021, 5:36 pm

OTT wrote: ↑October 24th, 2021, 5:19 pm Andy Farrell is ...

Fantastic analysis.

Oldschool · Post by **Oldschool** » October 24th, 2021, 5:52 pm

hugonaut wrote: ↑October 24th, 2021, 5:36 pm
OTT wrote: ↑October 24th, 2021, 5:19 pm Andy Farrell is ...
Fantastic analysis.

Yeah absolutely brilliant.
One caveat and it's a huge one.
Farrell has to (like in has to) select centrally contracted players except for certain matches that might be excluded from the must be selected central contract group.
If that caveat was applied it would imho point the finger elsewhere (not exclusively).
Why B Burns got 8 caps is beyond comprehension but you'd have to be hoping that there's more to it than Farrell demonstrating he hasn't a clue.
In Summary a by-product of your post is that it asks an awful lot of awkward questions and NOT just of or about Farrell either.
Most of them beginning with the word "Why"

riocard911 · Post by **riocard911** » October 25th, 2021, 12:28 am

Fabulous analysis, OTT. At the risk of reading too much into the Ospreys vs Munster match, there are two points I would add with a view less to the Autumn Series and more to RWC2023: 1. Is Conor Murray past it? A lot of Munster fans, from reading their forum, seem to think so. 2. If J10 doesn't make it to France, Jack Crowley could become an option, even if it's a pie in the sky/Marcus Smith on the Lions tour to RSA kind of one. I'd certainly rather have him as my 10 than BB and that match in Swansea was the first time I've seen him play. That said, personally I'm convinced Harry's the heir apparent to the out half position at Test level.

ronk · Post by **ronk** » October 25th, 2021, 1:10 am

Are you comparing 1 start (for the international window) Crowley to a guy with 119 Quin's appearances and over 1000 points, who's already one of the highest paid players in the prem at 22, has won the prem and got pulled into the Lions and probably should have been used? That Marcus Smith? He may have been off a lot of our radars because we weren't watching Quins but he was the 2nd youngest prem debutante and played 28 times in his first season.

People have been calling Murray done for years and eventually they'll be right but now is probably as bad a time as ever to be making that call.

I don't think it's helpful to overhype outhalf prospects and pile pressure on them until they're delivering. Crowley had a decent game and it was far from the sort of 'mare that cost Munster a game but let's also be realistic. Myler controlled the game and Munster struggled to bring their maul (a dominant platform) into the game. I'd need to be seeing a lot more to be making a call like that.

riocard911 · Post by **riocard911** » October 25th, 2021, 7:44 am

ronk wrote: ↑October 25th, 2021, 1:10 am Are you comparing 1 start (for the international window) Crowley to a guy with 119 Quin's appearances and over 1000 points, who's already one of the highest paid players in the prem at 22, has won the prem and got pulled into the Lions and probably should have been used? That Marcus Smith? He may have been off a lot of our radars because we weren't watching Quins but he was the 2nd youngest prem debutante and played 28 times in his first season.

People have been calling Murray done for years and eventually they'll be right but now is probably as bad a time as ever to be making that call.

I don't think it's helpful to overhype outhalf prospects and pile pressure on them until they're delivering. Crowley had a decent game and it was far from the sort of 'mare that cost Munster a game but let's also be realistic. Myler controlled the game and Munster struggled to bring their maul (a dominant platform) into the game. I'd need to be seeing a lot more to be making a call like that.

I knew Marcus Smith had won the Prem as I'd watched the Bristol semi and the final.. I wasn't aware he'd that many miles on the clock already though. Thanks for that.

Ruckedtobits · Post by **Ruckedtobits** » October 25th, 2021, 4:52 pm

Faz will want to start the Autumn Series with a confident win. The team he selected against Japan in June was:

15. Keenan
14. Larmour
13. Farrell
12. McCloskey
11. Stockdale
10. Carbery
9. JGP
1. Kilcoyne
2. Kelleher
3. Bealham
4. Ryan
5. Dillane
6. O'Mahony
7. JVdF
8. Doris

A lot of size in the backline allied to two pairs of quick hands at half-back. Very much second-string in the front five, with the possible exception of Ryan. An "continuity" type back-row with PO'M included to strengthen the line-out.

Don't believe either of those Props will be starting. Porter, Furlong, Healy and AN Other would be my choice of Props for the first two games. I hope Kelleher & Sheahan fill No 2 & No 16 in either order. I'd like Beirne & Henderson in the row with JVdF, Conan & Doris in the third row.

Carbery & JGP might complete the half-back pairing again but with Bundee and Ringrose in midfield with Ballacombe, Zebo & Keenan filling the back three.

There's little doubt that everybody in Ireland will be focused on the game against NZ but I believe Faz will have his eye on the overall performances and style of play that can be developed over the course of these three games. In that regard, and in the possible absence of Henshaw, getting Frawley alongside Sexton against either NZ or Argentina may be an objective. Certainly I will be very surprised if Frawley is selected alongside Carbery in his first exposure at this level. I will be equally surprised if Harry Byrne starts in any of the three games.

Coombes should get a selection at No 8 in one of the games, but probably not against Japan. Equally Tagdh Beirne could start alongside Henderson against Japan and find himself selected at No 6 against NZ. However, it makes a lot of sense to utilise the back-row teamwork and quality that Leinster have been demonstrating and use that unit in the first game.

When you sit down and start to selected match-day Squads it quickly becomes apparent that we lack second-row depth and have no certainty beyond Sexton at out-half. We should have a target of two wins in November. However, it looks unlikely that three out of three will be the outcome.

Oldschool · Post by **Oldschool** » October 25th, 2021, 6:33 pm

Faz will want to beat Japan and Argentina.
That's going to influence his selection policy
23 for Japan
Healy Kelleher Bealham
Baird Henderson
Beirne JVDF Conan
Murray Sexton
Aki Ringrose
Zebo Earls Keenan
Bench
Porter Sheehan Furlong
Ryan Doris
JGP Carberry Henshaw
Bealham is in great nick and is used to a high tempo game.
Henshaw needs 30 minutes at least off the bench (Frawley otherwise)
The back three are not error prone, are capable of doing damage and it would good to see them building a relationship.

23 against NZ
Porter Kelleher Furlong
Ryan Henderson
Beirne JVDF Conan
Murray Sexton
Frawley Henshaw
Zebo Earls Keenan
Bench
Healy Sheehan Bealham
Baird Doris
JGP Carberry Ringrose

23 against Argentina
Porter Kelleher Furlong
Ryan Henderson
Beirne JVDF Coombes
JGP Sexton
Henshaw Ringrose
Zebo Earls Keenan
Bench
Healy Sheehan Bealham
Baird Conan
Murray Byrne Larmour

Not too much experimentation but needs must.
Giving caps to Frawley, Sheehan and Coombes are caps for potential RWC squad members in two years time.
Zebo needs to be reintegrated into the Irish setup asap.
The only question mark over the BT is Earls' age.
Harry Byrne has to get air time because again of Sextin's age.
Frawley against NZ us a punt however if you want to be the best you have to play the best.

FLIP · Post by **FLIP** » October 25th, 2021, 6:35 pm

Oldschool wrote: ↑October 25th, 2021, 6:33 pm Faz will want to beat Japan and Argentina.
That's going to influence his selection policy
23 for Japan
Healy Kelleher Bealham
Baird Henderson
Beirne JVDF Conan
Murray Sexton
Aki Ringrose
Zebo Earls Keenan
Bench
Porter Sheehan Furlong
Ryan Doris
JGP Carberry Henshaw
Bealham is in great nick and is used to a high tempo game.
Henshaw needs 30 minutes at least off the bench (Frawley otherwise)
The back three are not error prone, are capable of doing damage and it would good to see them building a relationship.

23 against NZ
Porter Kelleher Furlong
Ryan Henderson
Beirne JVDF Conan
Murray Sexton
Frawley Henshaw
Zebo Earls Keenan
Bench
Healy Sheehan Bealham
Baird Doris
JGP Carberry Ringrose

23 against Argentina
Porter Kelleher Furlong
Ryan Henderson
Beirne JVDF Coombes
JGP Sexton
Henshaw Ringrose
Zebo Earls Keenan
Bench
Healy Sheehan Bealham
Baird Conan
Murray Byrne Larmour

Not too much experimentation but needs must.
Giving caps to Frawley, Sheehan and Coombes are caps for potential RWC squad members in two years time.
Zebo needs to be reintegrated into the Irish setup asap.
The only question mark over the BT is Earls' age.
Harry Byrne has to get air time because again of Sextin's age.
Frawley against NZ us a punt however if you want to be the best you have to play the best.

There's no way POM won't be in at least 2 of the match day 15s. Not because of any form or skill or anything like that mind. He'll just be there.

Oldschool · Post by **Oldschool** » October 25th, 2021, 6:40 pm

FLIP wrote: ↑October 25th, 2021, 6:35 pm
Oldschool wrote: ↑October 25th, 2021, 6:33 pm Faz will want to beat Japan and Argentina.
That's going to influence his selection policy
23 for Japan
Healy Kelleher Bealham
Baird Henderson
Beirne JVDF Conan
Murray Sexton
Aki Ringrose
Zebo Earls Keenan
Bench
Porter Sheehan Furlong
Ryan Doris
JGP Carberry Henshaw
Bealham is in great nick and is used to a high tempo game.
Henshaw needs 30 minutes at least off the bench (Frawley otherwise)
The back three are not error prone, are capable of doing damage and it would good to see them building a relationship.

23 against NZ
Porter Kelleher Furlong
Ryan Henderson
Beirne JVDF Conan
Murray Sexton
Frawley Henshaw
Zebo Earls Keenan
Bench
Healy Sheehan Bealham
Baird Doris
JGP Carberry Ringrose

23 against Argentina
Porter Kelleher Furlong
Ryan Henderson
Beirne JVDF Coombes
JGP Sexton
Henshaw Ringrose
Zebo Earls Keenan
Bench
Healy Sheehan Bealham
Baird Conan
Murray Byrne Larmour

Not too much experimentation but needs must.
Giving caps to Frawley, Sheehan and Coombes are caps for potential RWC squad members in two years time.
Zebo needs to be reintegrated into the Irish setup asap.
The only question mark over the BT is Earls' age.
Harry Byrne has to get air time because again of Sextin's age.
Frawley against NZ us a punt however if you want to be the best you have to play the best.
There's no way POM won't be in at least 2 of the match day 15s. Not because of any form or skill or anything like that mind. He'll just be there.

I know that, but the selections above just highlight that the Central Contract system needs modification.
The consequences are that we are preparing to fail at the next RWC by selecting players now who just aren't up to it now never mind in two years time.
You've only to look at Wales performance in the RWC compared to ours.
That's in part due to the flexibility the coach has in his selection options.

Ruckedtobits · Post by **Ruckedtobits** » October 25th, 2021, 7:15 pm

The inclusion of POM in any Squad now is a direct reflection on our weakness at second-row and, to a lesser extent his one remaining outstanding skill of winning opposition ball. However, until we can find a top-class new second row - Ahern, Issy, Baird or even Spicer (?!), POM will continue to be included, often in starting unit.

Babbling 'brook

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