Ireland v. Wales, Fri 13 Nov, 19.00

[brenno]

God for a game that has no ranking points or RWC seedings at stake, that's a very conservative selection by Farrell, but then I didn't expect any better.

I'm not going to go over the whole Cooney debate, except to say a couple of dud games at the beginning of the season for Ulster has meant he's cast out, that or either Farrell simply doesn't like his face. Sadly for us Leinster fans, SH is a weak position and JGP is nothing more than a journeyman scrum half and at 29 it's not exactly a look to the future. Connacht would be made to let either of them go, but I'd take Marmion and Blade at a stroke. Too soon for young Casey until he starts some games again strong Pro14 teams or in the ERC. For this game I'd have had Marmion and Casey as the two SH's - not particularly fussed as who would start and who would be on the bench.

OK, you can't throw two young tyros at out half but is Billy Burns really going to figure in the years ahead - don't think so. Fine let Sexton start on Friday (as long as he controls his petulance) but I'd have young Healy on the bench and hopefully come on to finish off the Welsh. Harry Byrne is a fine prospect but (like Casey) until he gets starts/bench against strong Pro14 or RWC opposition as opposed to dross like the Dragons or Ospreys we simply won't know if he has what it takes. Maybe his future will be dictated by what happens to Sexton when his central contract is up next summer, whether he stays on a much reduced Leinster contract or he goes off to the likes of Japan for a couple years. Could we see Harry moving west or north to get more game time.

Only other one that sticks out for me is Ed Byrne as LH bench. Great servant for Leinster but he's not an international prop and surely it would have made sense to give Eric O'Sullivan as outing (was very good last night for Ulster albeit against a very weak Glasgow team).

Rest of pack is fine, but Kelleher/Heffernah and the line out caller are going to have to get their line outs right - Wales might have been dire against Scotland last week but AWJ is still awesome in the line out, and we're going to make sure he doesn't disrupt ours throws. Back row looks good - but one of the three isn't going to be starting the really important games as CJ is a nailed-on starter.

[brenno]

Sorry - Marmion and Cooney as the two SH's for Friday, not Casey

[Oldschool]

I think Stockdale is going to be an awesome fullback, just give him time. He looks a real threat going forward, hes pretty good under the high ball and has an excellent kicking game. Plenty of room to improve but a real good base.

It's the two inches or 5.08cm (if you prefer SI units) of grey matter that you should be concerned about.

[backrower8]

So Burns can look forward to less time (Faz won’t dare remove Jonny until after he did in Paris) than Ross Byrne typically gets for all his 10 minute slots, just to prove that he is not the answer either.

1 in 5 of the 23 are qualified through residency. Cannot understand how Bealham is notably better and more worthy than John Ryan (O’Toole is injured); Roux than Dev/Ross Molony; JGP than Marmion/Blade/Luke; Lowe than Dave Kearney and Burns (a 29 year old journeyman) than Byrnes x 2, or Healy.

The conservatism is frustrating as is the awarding of so many caps to people whose prime identity is not Irish, over players who are. It cheapens international caps and matches.

[Oldschool]

So Burns can look forward to less time (Faz won’t dare remove Jonny until after he did in Paris) than Ross Byrne typically gets for all his 10 minute slots, just to prove that he is not the answer either.

1 in 5 of the 23 are qualified through residency. Cannot understand how Bealham is notably better and more worthy than John Ryan (O’Toole is injured); Roux than Dev/Ross Molony; JGP than Marmion/Blade/Luke; Lowe than Dave Kearney and Burns (a 29 year old journeyman) than Byrnes x 2, or Healy.

The conservatism is frustrating as is the awarding of so many caps to people whose prime identity is not Irish, over players who are. It cheapens international caps and matches.

Sexton should be off early. Nobody can prove they are or they aren't the answer with only ten minute cameos.
POM proved that with his ten minute cameo that had everyone wetting themselves - too many people are far too easily impressed.
It's a bit like NPHET, sacred cows don't get interrogated the way they should be.
If Trump got the kind of latitude POM got he'd have been re-elected on the first count. That's an analogy btw, before some of you lads, down the back there, get too exited.
+1 on Ryan v Bealham
Roux is better than either of the two alternatives you mentioned.
JGP is the form SH and he's better than Luke, much closer call on the other two you mentioned.
Lowe is defensively very weak, wouldn't have him and Stockdale in the same team so Dave would have been the right call.
Perhaps POM is getting the call over Ruddock because of his prime identity another bad call.
Burns is ??? blows very hot and cold.
That's my ringing endorsement of the the selection. Some experimentation which is welcome but too many Indian cows meandering around the place still.

[Fan with smartphone]

So Burns can look forward to less time (Faz won’t dare remove Jonny until after he did in Paris) than Ross Byrne typically gets for all his 10 minute slots, just to prove that he is not the answer either.

1 in 5 of the 23 are qualified through residency. Cannot understand how Bealham is notably better and more worthy than John Ryan (O’Toole is injured); Roux than Dev/Ross Molony; JGP than Marmion/Blade/Luke; Lowe than Dave Kearney and Burns (a 29 year old journeyman) than Byrnes x 2, or Healy.

The conservatism is frustrating as is the awarding of so many caps to people whose prime identity is not Irish, over players who are. It cheapens international caps and matches.

I make 3 players qualified by residency, no? Quinn Roux has been living here near 10 years. He fits what I would’ve thought is a possible pattern of Andy Farrell selection - he’s big on big gym units. Midfield goes a similar way but there is more nuance in the back row than there has been and I think that’s a good mesh. Compliments the second row too I’d argue

Bealham is 29, Ryan 32. Much of a muchness for the position maybe, but I personally rate Bealham highly. He qualifies through family, played u20 and been here since then. I think he’s had a raw enough deal on selection at times but should be now getting to his prime years. I like John Ryan but that is a good selection for me. It’s also a good selection to bench Murray but great to have him down the stretch. JGP is more of an impact sub - that’s what he did very well with the hurricanes and here, so I’m not sure how he’ll go as a starter but he is a very good player and they are getting him in the tent. With Murray not operating at his top level for a while, Scrum half is looking like a very competitive position so any drop in form from any of them will spell trouble and opportunity for someone else.

Burns I don’t think has shown a whole lot for Ulster but it’s a position which is up for grabs and here’s his chance.

I’d have been critical of Farrell up to now on selection, but I think this is pretty good. Whatever about writing names on a page though, they have to put it together a bit better than have been. So few things basic things went well vs France, it really does need significant improvement because it’ll be a struggle to win many games playing like that.

[hugonaut]

1 in 5 of the 23 are qualified through residency. Cannot understand how Bealham is notably better and more worthy than John Ryan (O’Toole is injured); Roux than Dev/Ross Molony; JGP than Marmion/Blade/Luke; Lowe than Dave Kearney and Burns (a 29 year old journeyman) than Byrnes x 2, or Healy.

Bealham and Burns are both Irish-qualified by ancestry.

One of Bealham's grandmothers was from Enniskillen [source: https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/rug ... 90277.html ], and Burns' paternal grandfather was from Cork [source: https://www.the42.ie/billy-burns-irelan ... 6-Aug2018/ ].

[ronk]

]
(v Wales, Guinness Series 2020, Autumn Nations Cup, Friday, November 13, 7.00pm, Aviva Stadium)

15. Jacob Stockdale (Ulster/Lurgan) 30 caps
14. Hugo Keenan (Leinster/UCD) 2 caps
13. Chris Farrell (Munster/Young Munster) 10 caps
12. Robbie Henshaw (Leinster/Buccaneers) 45 caps
11. James Lowe (Leinster) uncapped
10. Jonathan Sexton (Leinster/St Mary’s College) 93 caps CAPTAIN
9. Jamison Gibson Park (Leinster) 2 caps
1. Cian Healy (Leinster/Clontarf) 100 caps
2. Ronan Kelleher (Leinster/Lansdowne) 3 caps
3. Andrew Porter (Leinster/UCD) 28 caps
4. Iain Henderson (Ulster/Academy) 55 caps
5. James Ryan (Leinster/UCD) 28 caps
6. Peter O’Mahony (Munster/Cork Constitution) 69 caps
7. Josh van der Flier (Leinster/UCD) 26 caps
8. Caelan Doris (Leinster/St Mary’s College) 4 caps

Replacements

16. Dave Heffernan (Connacht/Buccaneers) 3 caps
17. Ed Byrne (Leinster/UCD) 2 caps
18. Finlay Bealham (Connacht/Buccaneers) 11 caps
19. Quinn Roux (Connacht/Galwegians) 12 caps
20. Will Connors (Leinster/UCD) 2 caps
21. Conor Murray (Munster/Garryowen) 83 caps
22. Billy Burns (UIster) uncapped
23. Keith Earls (Munster/Young Munster) 84 caps

5 of the starting XV under 5 caps, half the bench too. Farrell, Bealham and Roux barely into double figures.

[Laighin Break]

OK, you can't throw two young tyros at out half but is Billy Burns really going to figure in the years ahead - don't think so. Fine let Sexton start on Friday (as long as he controls his petulance) but I'd have young Healy on the bench and hopefully come on to finish off the Welsh. Harry Byrne is a fine prospect but (like Casey) until he gets starts/bench against strong Pro14 or RWC opposition as opposed to dross like the Dragons or Ospreys we simply won't know if he has what it takes. Maybe his future will be dictated by what happens to Sexton when his central contract is up next summer, whether he stays on a much reduced Leinster contract or he goes off to the likes of Japan for a couple years. Could we see Harry moving west or north to get more game time.

Only other one that sticks out for me is Ed Byrne as LH bench. Great servant for Leinster but he's not an international prop and surely it would have made sense to give Eric O'Sullivan as outing (was very good last night for Ulster albeit against a very weak Glasgow team).

Agree re Ed Byrne, but I don't quite follow your Healy/H Byrne logic.
You'd have Healy on the bench (3 Pro14 starts; 2 Pro14 replacement appearances and 14 minutes of Heineken Cup action against Ospreys) but not Harry Byrne (6 Pro14 starts; 8 Pro14 replacement appearances) because Byrne hasn't had starts/benches against strong Pro14/RWC opposition?
Byrne has played much more senior rugby than Healy and against the same opposition.

[hugonaut]

God for a game that has no ranking points or RWC seedings at stake, that's a very conservative selection by Farrell, but then I didn't expect any better.

I'm not going to go over the whole Cooney debate, except to say a couple of dud games at the beginning of the season for Ulster has meant he's cast out, that or either Farrell simply doesn't like his face.

Our scrum-half situation is quite weird. I remember thinking before the 2019 Six Nations that it was the deepest we had ever been – Marmion had just started in the team that beat the All Blacks with McGrath finishing the game well off the bench, Cooney was having a great season for Ulster and Murray was on the comeback from injury. We had exciting Irish-qualified options playing regularly at every province, all of them in a good age bracket ...

... and we [two different Irish coaching set-ups] have managed to get very little from any of them over that period. Conor Murray has been the best Irish scrum-half I've ever seen, but he came back from his injury a significantly [and obviously] diminished player. Despite that, he's been selected to start 16 of the 19 tests Ireland have played since the start of 2019! The ones he has missed out on are listed below:

10.08.19 | World Cup Warm-up vs Italy – [McGrath/Marmion]
31.08.19 | World Cup Warm-up @ Wales – [Marmion/McGrath]
03.10.19 | World Cup Pool Match vs Russia – [McGrath/Murray - Murray DNP]

Two coaches have given Murray practically every opportunity to 'find his form', and he hasn't found it. To my mind, it's probably because he has had a career-altering injury and can't get back to the exceptional level at which he used to play. He signed his deal with the union in mid October 2018 [source: https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/rugby/ ... -1.3658929 ] while he was out injured, and to be frank, he has never again played at the pre-injury level that earned him that deal.

Obviously he had played so well for Schmidt in the past that the coach wanted to afford him opportunities to get back to where he had previously been, form-wise. To compound it, the union were paying him an absolute fortune; Thornley estimated the deal at €2m over three years [€660k+p.a.]. He's probably being paid three or four times as much as any of his competitors for the Irish No9 shirt.

So you can understand why there was a big effort to select him and let him play his way back to his best – his best is the best of anyone that we have, and the union has made a huge investment in him. However, it hasn't worked out, it's been obvious that it hasn't been working out, and all those chances have come at the expense of all the other scrum-halves in the country. You'd have to say that it has had an influence on the wider team as well.

I've a lot of respect for Murray and, as in all these cases, he doesn't select the team. You can't blame him for being picked. Nor do I think he should be out of contention for selection – I think he should be in contention. But he shouldn't be an automatic selection.

[sunshiner1]

by hugonaut

Our scrum-half situation is quite weird. I remember thinking before the 2019 Six Nations that it was the deepest we had ever been – Marmion had just started in the team that beat the All Blacks with McGrath finishing the game well off the bench, Cooney was having a great season for Ulster and Murray was on the comeback from injury. We had exciting Irish-qualified options playing regularly at every province, all of them in a good age bracket ...

... and we [two different Irish coaching set-ups] have managed to get very little from any of them over that period. Conor Murray has been the best Irish scrum-half I've ever seen, but he came back from his injury a significantly [and obviously] diminished player. Despite that, he's been selected to start 16 of the 19 tests Ireland have played since the start of 2019! The ones he has missed out on are listed below:

10.08.19 | World Cup Warm-up vs Italy – [McGrath/Marmion]
31.08.19 | World Cup Warm-up @ Wales – [Marmion/McGrath]
03.10.19 | World Cup Pool Match vs Russia – [McGrath/Murray - Murray DNP]

Two coaches have given Murray practically every opportunity to 'find his form', and he hasn't found it. To my mind, it's probably because he has had a career-altering injury and can't get back to the exceptional level at which he used to play. He signed his deal with the union in mid October 2018 [source: https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/rugby/ ... -1.3658929 ] while he was out injured, and to be frank, he has never again played at the pre-injury level that earned him that deal.

Obviously he had played so well for Schmidt in the past that the coach wanted to afford him opportunities to get back to where he had previously been, form-wise. To compound it, the union were paying him an absolute fortune; Thornley estimated the deal at €2m over three years [€660k+p.a.]. He's probably being paid three or four times as much as any of his competitors for the Irish No9 shirt.

So you can understand why there was a big effort to select him and let him play his way back to his best – his best is the best of anyone that we have, and the union has made a huge investment in him. However, it hasn't worked out, it's been obvious that it hasn't been working out, and all those chances have come at the expense of all the other scrum-halves in the country. You'd have to say that it has had an influence on the wider team as well.

I've a lot of respect for Murray and, as in all these cases, he doesn't select the team. You can't blame him for being picked. Nor do I think he should be out of contention for selection – I think he should be in contention. But he shouldn't be an automatic selection.

I agree with you. Under Schmidt I don't think Marmion got picked in front of Murray because he isn't as good a box kicker as Murray is and that was Schmidt's gameplan for that time. Which is fair enough, but Farrell's game plan seems to be speed and mobility which are Marmion's strengths. Cooney might be hot and cold but again can move the ball fast and look for breaks. McGrath and JGP have a slightly different style in that they seem to be better all round players but again does that suit the gameplan? Murray is trying his best but just not up to the same level anymore and we've become predicable. It reminds me of when Stringer was the number 9 so teams knew he would never snipe making it easier to defend.

[johng]

AWJ starting. First man in history to earn 150 test caps.

[Twist]

Not exactly sending out the espoirs, assuredly.


Wales:
Leigh Halfpenny
Liam Williams
Jonathan Davies
Owen Watkin
Josh Adams
Dan Biggar
Gareth Davies

Rhys Carre
Ryan Elias
Tomas Francis
Will Rowlands
Alun Wyn Jones
Shane Lewis-Hughes
Justin Tipuric
Taulupe Faletau

Reps: Elliot Dee, Wyn Jones, Samson Lee, Jake Ball, Aaron Wainwright, Lloyd Williams, Callum Sheedy, George North.

[Twist]

AWJ starting. First man in history to earn 150 test caps.

And STILL people get his name wrong!

[dropkick]

Not exactly sending out the espoirs, assuredly.


Wales:
Leigh Halfpenny
Liam Williams
Jonathan Davies
Owen Watkin
Josh Adams
Dan Biggar
Gareth Davies

Rhys Carre
Ryan Elias
Tomas Francis
Will Rowlands
Alun Wyn Jones
Shane Lewis-Hughes
Justin Tipuric
Taulupe Faletau

Reps: Elliot Dee, Wyn Jones, Samson Lee, Jake Ball, Aaron Wainwright, Lloyd Williams, Callum Sheedy, George North.

Their class of 2011 are fading away.
What should worry them is the age of their top players.

Aged 30 or over: Tipuric, AWJ, Jon Davies, Halfpenny, Biggar, Gareth Davies, Webb, Owens, Ball

Late 20s: North, Faletau, Rowlands, Francis, Liam Williams, corey Hill.
North and Faletau are not the players they once were. They burst into the scene when they were young and have a lot of mileage.


To add to Welsh woes Anscombe is out long term and the underrated Hadleigh Parkes has gone to Japan.


Gatland and Edwards are also massive loss to wales. Gatland wasn't always successful because he had his ups and downs like all coaches but he always got them punching above their weight.


I think the 2019 grand slam was the last hurrah for Wales for a while. That's not to say they are suddenly mugs. Them winning on Friday night wouldn't be much of an upset but in the grand scheme of things they need to find new players in the next few years. Their regions don't even have many talented project players to choose like ourselves and the Scots have.

[Oldschool]

Have to disagree with the "Murray was the best" line of enquiry.
His passing, the one attribute that most defines a SH, was never better than average.
His box kicking was excellent.
He didn't have much competition until later in his career.
Joe Schmidt realised the limitations that Murray imposed on what his teams could do and adopted a kicking game, primarily because of Murray's slow pass.
Once teams and coaches figured that out we were into dog fight territory.
How often did we here the phrase "Ireland are on top in the possession stakes but we're not seeing it on the scoreboard"
Way too often.
Not saying that was all down to the Murray but your scrum half is the fulcrum of the team.
Stringer waa a far superior scrum half because the best part of his game and by far the most important part of any SH's game was his passing.

[Laighin Break]

Have to disagree with the "Murray was the best" line of enquiry.
His passing, the one attribute that most defines a SH, was never better than average.
His box kicking was excellent.
He didn't have much competition until later in his career.
Joe Schmidt realised the limitations that Murray imposed on what his teams could do and adopted a kicking game, primarily because of Murray's slow pass.
Once teams and coaches figured that out we were into dog fight territory.
How often did we here the phrase "Ireland are on top in the possession stakes but we're not seeing it on the scoreboard"
Way too often.
Not saying that was all down to the Murray but your scrum half is the fulcrum of the team.
Stringer waa a far superior scrum half because the best part of his game and by far the most important part of any SH's game was his passing.

Ah, think you're being a bit unfair on Murray there. He was widely regarded as one of the best scrumhalves in the world for a while - and has 5 Lions test caps to show for that.
I hate how often the term "World Class" gets thrown around, but Murray is one of the few in the Irish squad that I think merited that at one point in time.

Stringer's pass was far superior.

[hugonaut]

Ah, think you're being a bit unfair on Murray there. He was widely regarded as one of the best scrumhalves in the world for a while - and has 5 Lions test caps to show for that.
I hate how often the term "World Class" gets thrown around, but Murray is one of the few in the Irish squad that I think merited that at one point in time.

Stringer's pass was far superior.

I think Stuart Lancaster's definition of 'world class' is being one of the three best players in the world in your position – I remember somebody telling me that he had said that in a talk/conference they had attended.

That has always stuck with me, and I think it's a good definition.

[domhnallj]

AWJ starting. First man in history to earn 150 test caps.

And STILL people get his name wrong!

Vere Wyn Jones used to complain about this (a lot!)

[Dave Cahill]

Stockdale and Henderson out, Conway and Roux into the starting XV. Keenan moves to full back and Beirne comes on to the bench in place of Roux