Tour to NZ 2022

[Oldschool]

Team to play first test.
Larmour
Stockdale
Ringrose
Henshaw
Lowe
Carberry
McGrath L
McGrath J
Scannel
Furlong
Ryan (C)
Beirne
Leavy
Stander
JVDF
Tracey
Kilcoyne/Dooley
Ryan J
Henderson
Deegan/Jordi
Byrne
JGPark
Conway.
Squad members not selected for the first test.
Aki, Addison, Moore, Dillane, Conan, etc
Younger players who may make the breakthrough - Kelly O'Brien maybe

[mildlyinterested]

Possible 23

1. Peter Dooley(27) or Michael Milne(23)
2. Niall Scannell(30) or Adam McBurney(26) or Ronan Kelleher(24)
3. Tadhg Furlong(28)
4. Iain Henderson(30) or Tadgh Beirne(29)
5. James Ryan(26)
6. Caelan Doris(24)
7. Dan Leavy(28)
8. Jack Conan(30) 4)
9. Conor Murray(33)
10. Joey Carbery(25)
11. Jacob Stockdale(26)
12. Robbie Henshaw(29)
13. Garry Ringrose(27)
14. James Lowe(29)
15. Jordan Larmour(25)

[artaneboy]

Ah Jaysus! Over four years away?

Mods- please lock this thread until May of that year...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Peg Leg]

Love this type of thread, IF we remember to drag it back up in 2020

[dropkick]

Hard to say who'll make the breakthrough. Every year now there are a few talents like Stockdale and Larmour coming through. If we can get one or two of those standout youngsters per season and two or three 'slower to mature' players like Tadhg Beirne.


Some stand out players I think can get capped or become a big part of the squad are James French (loosehead prop), Ronan Kelleher, Hugh O'Sullivan, Michael Lowry (though size is always a concern), Doris, Gavin Coombes, Bill Johnston, Jack Dunne.


There are a few seasons of the U20 to watch out for also. 4 years ago many of the current squad were school boys with potential.


Looking at the current squad it's noticeable how many players are in their early twenties.

[TerenureJim]

Can we put a Backstop on this thread?

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Younger players who may make the breakthrough - Kelly O'Brien maybe

Even if she has 4 years to bulk up I really wouldn't throw her in against the All Blacks.

[dropkick]

Hard to say who'll make the breakthrough. Every year now there are a few talents like Stockdale and Larmour coming through. If we can get one or two of those standout youngsters per season and two or three 'slower to mature' players like Tadhg Beirne.


Some stand out players I think can get capped or become a big part of the squad are James French (loosehead prop), Ronan Kelleher, Hugh O'Sullivan, Michael Lowry (though size is always a concern), Doris, Gavin Coombes, Bill Johnston, Jack Dunne.


There are a few seasons of the U20 to watch out for also. 4 years ago many of the current squad were school boys with potential.


Looking at the current squad it's noticeable how many players are in their early twenties.

Add Frawley to the list.

[Ruckedtobits]

Hard to say who'll make the breakthrough. Every year now there are a few talents like Stockdale and Larmour coming through. If we can get one or two of those standout youngsters per season and two or three 'slower to mature' players like Tadhg Beirne.


Some stand out players I think can get capped or become a big part of the squad are James French (loosehead prop), Ronan Kelleher, Hugh O'Sullivan, Michael Lowry (though size is always a concern), Doris, Gavin Coombes, Bill Johnston, Jack Dunne.


There are a few seasons of the U20 to watch out for also. 4 years ago many of the current squad were school boys with potential.


Looking at the current squad it's noticeable how many players are in their early twenties.

Add Frawley to the list.

+1.

Kelleher, Coombes, Penney and Curtis all look likely to be good enough. But then they have to enter the "lucky draw". Who gets injured, loses form or produces on a big day?

[Ruckedtobits]

Since the 2021 Championship, I've been wondering whether we'd face a new coaching group for NZ in our Summer Tour in 2022. I'm now reasonably convinced that we will.

Despite leading us by 5-10 at half-time, NZ had endured probably their worst 40 minutes of rugby since RWC 2019. Although this was somewhat camouflaged by superb defence close to their line, it was absolutely evident that NZ were being outplayed tactically and needed to alter their pattern of play to counter our oppressive defence and multi-pronged attack.

And yet there was no tactical alteration in the second-half. No attempt was made to reduce our flow of possession, whether from line-outs or breakdowns. NZ didn't adequately resource rucks, they didn't break-up line-outs to reduce the impact of our disruption of their ball. They didn't try any back-row moves to commit our back-row or attack our half-backs. Each of these elements are ingrained in NZ players from their earliest years and yet none were tried.

Against France, they encountered a very different style and yet it was evident by half-time they were being tactically schooled once again. However, Foster, Plumtree, Feek et al did not react with any alternative tactics. NZ rugby will not tolerate such lack of reaction or innovation.

Foster and his coaching group are due a review at year-end. I expect to see a new Crusaders dominated coaching group by the time we get to the Land of the Long White Cloud in July. And maybe, just maybe, it might include a former Irish coach.

[Degz]

Yes I think it's clear they needed fresh ideas at the end of the Hansen reign, which was, in reality, a continuation of the Henry regime (ala Shankley and Paisley).

You would have to assume that Scott Robertson is the heir apparent. Might he be making a phone call to La Rochelle?

[CiaranIrl]

Also, fair play to our very own savant from Wexford, Mildly interested, with a lot of predictions on the money.

[Oldschoolsocks]

I don’t know about all of this. The New Zealand attacking playing style / game plan seems to consist at the moment of get the ball to the man in space and pace with power and precision will give enough scores to win the match. And to be fair they could have beaten us with that approach if the fwd pass hadn’t been called. The defence plan seems to be line up and tackle everything. All they need is a bit more structure in defence and their losses become even more rare.

Point being once they lay down a defence plan on top and freshen up their second row they’re back in business. All imho of course

[JB1973]

NZ for all their attacking brilliance and try scoring prowess, really do seem to have issues in defence especially when big powerful forwards run at them

Ireland and NZ just physically overwhelmed them I agree with the comments re Foster I can't see him lasting into 2022

[Flash Gordon]

Possible 23

1. Peter Dooley(27) or Michael Milne(23)
2. Niall Scannell(30) or Adam McBurney(26) or Ronan Kelleher(24)
3. Tadhg Furlong(28)
4. Iain Henderson(30) or Tadgh Beirne(29)
5. James Ryan(26)
6. Caelan Doris(24)
7. Dan Leavy(28)
8. Jack Conan(30) 4)
9. Conor Murray(33)
10. Joey Carbery(25)
11. Jacob Stockdale(26)
12. Robbie Henshaw(29)
13. Garry Ringrose(27)
14. James Lowe(29)
15. Jordan Larmour(25)

That's a decent effort at predicting to be fair!

[king]

What size squad and is there room for some bolters and if so, who?

[desperado]

What size squad and is there room for some bolters and if so, who?

42 in the squad I believe. Anyone willing to put up a possible 42 (I'm too lazy )

[Ruckedtobits]

New Zealand Rugby Union have confirmed that they will host Test Matches against Ireland in Auckland, Wellington and Dunedin in July 2022. In addition, their CEO Mark Robinson confirmed:

"We are still working on the prospect of mid-week matches against Ireland. There's nothing more to report on that officially, but work is going on behind the scenes with Irish rugby to look at that

Giving the forward-looking focus of Andy Farrell and his Management Team, combined with some of the comments of Jonny Sexton during the course of the 6 Nations campaign, it would be no surprise if Ireland were aiming for a five match Tour in a timeline that replicates their RWC 2023 fixtures as closely as possible. On a number of occasions over the past 8 weeks, both Faz and J10 have referenced the preparation for 6N's games as being viewed in parallel with what must be faced in a World Cup timetable.

There is a slight problem in this regard and this is the scheduled two-week gap between our South Africa Pool game on 23rd Sept 2023 and our final Pool game against Scotland on 7th October 2023. However, if Farrell et al were to 'ignore' our initial fixture against Spain and treat the other three fixtures and a Quarter-final game as akin to our NZ Tour Schedule, we could have the following:

Match 1: Ireland v Maori XV (RWC V Tonga) - Tuesday 28th June
Match 2: NZ v Ireland - 1st Test Auckland (RWC v S. AFRICA) - Sat 4th or Sun 5th Jul
Match 3: Hurricanes v Ire - Tues 7th Jul Wellington;
Match 4: NZ v Ireland -2nd Test Wellington (RWC v Scotland) Sun 12th Jul
Match 5: NZ v Ireland - 3rd Test Dunedin (RWC Q/F) Sat 18th Jul

The heavyweight week from 4th to 12th July is a tough ask, but as it's mid-tour it would be excellent preparation (and a week shorter) than our RWC itinerary. The compensation is that we can duplicate the week gap to a Q/F game post our last Pool game and this has proved our achieves heel previously.

Accordingly, it's not unreasonable to presume that Ireland will have three Test Matches at the venues mentioned above and possibly two other games against Super Rugby or Maori opposition, ideally with one Test Match on a Sunday afternoon. The word from NZ is that all Irish fixtures are eagerly awaited and should attract full stadiums given the Irish successes of recent years.

There's no precise formula for International Tour Regulations between the top (20) Rugby Nations. However, the final details have to negotiated with World Rugby prior to confirmation. However, given the degree of advance preparation that Farrell prefers, there's a strong case that he may want to take a Tour Party of the biggest possible size. The RWC regulation is for 33 players, but the rumours suggest he may want to add a number of additional travellers given the difficulty & distance involved for the arrival of reinforcements in the event of injuries, coupled with his desire to try-out some Squad members.

The composition of a Tour Party is not pre-determined except for the International game requirements for front-row players - recently brought into sharp focus by events in the Ireland v Italy 6 Nations debacle. That said, the composition of a Squad will usually be based on the degree of versatility of the players selected and the relative strength in depth in certain positions.

Pre-existing Assumptions in Squad Selection

* Assume three hookers needed for each game - in case of pre-match injury;
* Assume three scrum-halves needed for each game - in case of pre-match injury;
* Assume 3 LHPs & 3 THP's for each game - in case of pre-match injury - unless 'dual player' e.g. Healy, available.

So that's probably 12 players selected to fill just four positions, it might be only 10 / 11 if Porter and Healy were considered 'dual-sided' props.

* Back Three positions are considered non-attritional, I.e. playing twice in a week is possible. Selection here will be based on strength in depth, say 2 FBs and 4 Wings;
* Selection of Centres will be focused on the available strengths. Say 4 selections;
* Selection of Out-halves often brings to mind the NZ experience of their home World Cup Final. Assume three selections, one of whom may also be a 'dual-option' possibly FB or No 12;
* Selection between 2nd Row and Back-rows can often be a function of the available players. Assume two Open-side flanker and two specialist No 8's. After that, some teams will have 3 Second-row only players and up to 3 versatile players who can play 5, 6 or 8;

By my calculation, and assuming only 11 automatic Front-row & SH selections, it will be hard to keep a Tour Party at 33 players and Faz may request approval for 35 players. It always seems a large number when it is anonymity. However, when you begin to list positions and names, it fills up very quickly.

Initial Selection - no injuries assumed

At the outset, it's realistic to assume no injuries. However, a brief scan of every Irish Tour Party to NZ since 2002 and there has been four, shows that one can predict we'll probably lose 3/4 players to injury prior to departure. Pressure of play-off games, the attrition of a long season, injury rehabilitation prior to RWC a year later, are all factors that will result in missing faces on Tour.

The names below are offered on the assumption that all will be fit to travel, regardless of their current state of health. Those in brackets are suggested as possible candidates, depending on numbers approved to travel

Front-Row Forwards
Furlong, Porter, Kelleher, Sheehan, Herring, Bealham, Healy, (O'Toole / J McGrath)

Second-row
Ryan, Henderson, Beirne, Baird, (J McCarthy / K Treadwell / R Molony)

Back-row
JVdF, Doris, Conan, O'Mahony, Timoney, Coombes, Leavy

Scrum-halves
JGP, Murray, (Casey / Marmion / Doak)

Out-halves
Sexton, Carbery, (Carty /Byrne R / Lowry)

Centres
Aki, Henshaw, Ringrose, Hume

Back Three
Keenan, Lowry, Conway, Lowe, Hansen, Baloucoune, Earls, (Larmour)

That 47 names in total (23 Forwards, 24 Backs), possibly a couple more than might be permitted. I've included extras in front-row, back-row, 2nd row, half-backs, back three but possibly doubled-up with Lowry. It's clear that, barring injury, there won't be any 'soft' selections. However, who knows? Hanson wasn't in too many selections prior to the Welsh game and Sheehan only figured on the Leinster fans' selections from Christmas.

What Andy Farrell would really love would be a Provincial out-half (other than J10) to dominate the next 8 weeks of the URC / EPCR headlines, or an under-estimated (or experienced former international) LHP to dominate a couple of SA front-row contests in the URC or a young second-row to take his chances in successive weeks of EPCR knockout games and demand selection based on performance.

None of those scenarios are impossible, but not that unlikely.

[Ruckedtobits]

Mod,
can you amalgamate this into the existing NZ Tour thread?

[brotheroffrank]

Mod,
can you amalgamate this into the existing NZ Tour thread?

Or vice versa....which were 1st....the Chicken or the Egg....?