Tour to NZ 2022

[Oldschoolsocks]

Watched moneyball the other night, imho this is the approach that Farrell is taking.

Why are we picking this guy? Because he gets over the gainline

Sheehan is obviously a stand out player, even to people who don't like him. He's not moneyball.

Moneyball would be about someone like Molony or Ross Byrne. Looks like they're not good enough but are actually highly effective players who are underrated by people who rate the type of athleticism that Dan has.

It's a wider conversation with Sheehan that highly inopportune right now with 2 of the top 3 hookers in Ireland out.

Before the tour I felt that the 4th place hooker was so far back that there was no point in development/tour minutes.

Either I didn’t explain myself well or you misunderstood. Sheehan is an excellent player and would be on my squad, what I was trying to say that I think if there’s a call between an truly excellent specialist and a really good specialist who will get over the gainline then the one who gets over the gainline will probably be selected.

Farrell is not focussed on winning the scrum battle, he’s focussed on winning the gainline and ruck battle, and I think he’s right. The piece that I think he’s learning here is how it will execute in absolutely the least favourable environment prior to the World Cup which may be worse - possibly playing France in France in a quarter final with All if the French press attention pressuring the refereeing team, won’t get harder than that!!!

[enby]

It is amazing how so many of the rugby commentators advance what they would like to see rather than assess what they have seen. To a man/woman they all want Joey picked at 10 this week. I too would love to see the Joey of 2016-18 thrive in the green 10 shirt. But the fact of the matter is that he has fared quite poorly when given the role. He did help to close out the win over NZ last November but otherwise it is hard to think of any occasion that he grabbed a game by the scruff of the neck and got his back line moving. Most fundamental of all is the established fact that his defence is nowhere near international standard and to continue to select him will only result in the concession of easy scores.

He has had his chance and he deserved that chance but a cold assessment of his performances in recent matches can only lead to the conclusion that it is time to try Frawley or Harry ( or Ben Healy or Crowley ). There is a real danger of sleep walking into the repeated and damaging over reliance on Jonny for the World Cup but we need to face the fact that Joey is not the man to step up.

I often think of the post that somebody put up here about 18 months ago pointing out that Ntmack is the same age if not a little younger than Harry. OK he is a better and less injury prone player than HB but the difference in the quality and quantity of their minutes of playing time both at club and international level is stark. I very much doubt that Smith would be anywhere near as advanced in his career as he now is had he been Irish.

[OTT]

That is a simple question, and one that I would be more than happy to engage with you on were we having a pint.
But unfortunately I know better than provide an answer to a question like that on here, as I would risk far worse comments than the one that OTT has already directed towards me for just posting in this thread.

You always play the victim. Here is your post prior to the November internationals which was based around a squad with a huge Leinster representative

This definitely won’t be a popular opinion for some, but looking at the current Irish squad the lack of world class or arguably world class players available at the moment has to be a concern.

Looking at the complete squad, the only player, imo, that we have that would be held in that regard would be Furlong. By world class I mean someone who would be an automatic selection for nearly every international team.

Henshaw is one that is arguably at that level, maybe Murray on his day, but that is not clear cut.
Looking at the chasing pack, nobody jumps out as someone who is close.

You don’t need 15 world class players, but you do need more than 1 to beat the best.

This is not something that anyone is responsible for, and there is not much you can do to alter that, so I’m not having a dig at anyone. World class players are not built in training, it is something that they must possess.

Imo that Ireland squad doesn’t look strong enough to bring home silverware without the likes of England, France and Wales imploding.

With all that insight into our lack of world class players we went out the next week and beat NZ.

At half time in the match on Saturday you came up with this beauty clearly showing you either hadn’t watched the match or don’t understand rugby.

We can come up with 100s of excuses why we are losing, but the biggest reason is because we are plying sh1t and not playing what’s in front of us.

There has been some really shocking decision making from the back line, really trying to force things, and handing back hard fought possession.
In the pack, the loose forwards just aren’t working hard enough, with the possible exception of VDF and POM.
They are not working hard enough to get to the breakdown, and when they do they are not working hard enough to retain, slow down or turnover ball.

How a player can walk through a ruck at this level is completely unacceptable, and it results in a soft try.

This Ireland team look completely out of their depth at this level.

You also hated on our most successful coach ever in Joe Schmidt and wanted him gone after his second game in charge with that infamous drunken rant post, you’ve come up with clangers such as you neither rate or like Johnny Sexton (embarrassing eh?…oh oh I’m sure there’s context to that oh eh sure).

You support Munster, you support them so f%~king blindly that you would have taken JVG for another 3 years because it was loyal to the Munster branch’s thinking, you want as many Munster players in the Ireland team as possible and don’t care if that improves the Irish team or not, most people see through your posts, oh the tight head lock needs to be bigger…maybe Kleyn should have toured?. We need a hooker who scrums better even if they are shite around the pitch…what about Scans? 1st test thinking Doris should move to 8 he is better there and Conan needs a rest…POM at 6 maybe? Second test thinking Doris didn’t work hard enough in the first test we need another big carrier…maybe Coombes? Oh gosh nobody can see through any of this, I’m so f%~king clever.

My previous post was half joking but the site was easier when you were posting to yourself in an effort to get your thread more relevance, it stopped the provincial rubbish elsewhere.

[wixfjord]

Interesting conversation but I'm not sure it's the right one. We are quite deliberately playing a fast paced game requiring high skill levels. We are deliberately and choicefully not playing a saffer style physical game because we can't do it as well as South Africa. This is the way Leinster play and it's the game plan Ireland have been working since last summer - it's the one that brought us a clean sweep in the Autumn. Similarly, it was the game plan that had the All Blacks on the rack in the first quester till we made 2 or 3 executional errors in the game plan and gifted them the match.

That doesn't mean the game plan was wrong it means that the execution of the game plan was poor. It was pretty clear that the All Blacks were worried about us because of the way they had seen us play previously. You bring in a big scrummaging hooker, props and locks and you will struggle to play that game plan. Yes we lost 3 scrums but so did the All Blacks - the scrum wasn't thee reason we lost the game, we had possession and territory the primary issue was what we did with the ball and to be honest most of those issues were in the backline. Similarly for Leinster the scrum wasn't the reason we lost to La Rochelle or why we didn't with the URC.

I'm hoping that we use the rest of the series to work on the tactical direction we have been working over the last year, the direction that fairly comfortably beat the All Blacks last Autumn.

BINGO.

That's one of the more astute comments I've seen on here in recent times.

Leinster and Ireland have purposefully moved towards a certain style of game based on having brilliant players who can execute that at high levels.

We need to double down on that game, because it has brought a lot of success.

Coming now and saying 'we need to bring back in bulkier players to shore things up' is the exact opposite to what we should be doing, (not least because those players don't exist)

That doesn't mean we can't also improve in scrum and lineout with a mix of the existing players, but that's about better coaching and structure. It shouldn't come to the detriment of how we want to play.

[ronk]

So more like the first baseman discussion.

Sheehan's contribution on the ball is such that losing lineouts and scrums is acceptable. Moneyball was based on statistical analysis and better data would be needed. Baseball wildly overpriced fielding errors, to the point where they put them on the scoreboard. They also used spurious logic to miscount hits. The equivalent from rugby was the realisation that restarts are a set-piece of comparable importantly to scrums or lineouts. Or kicking down the line rather than taking points.

Where scrums and lineouts take elevated importance against power teams is the kill zone: Line-out, maul, penalty, kick for touch, repeat.

[wixfjord]

Interesting to hear Matt Williams starting to question whether Joey is the right man to back up J10.

First mainstream media voice I've heard raising it.

Wouldn't exactly rate Mattie as an analyst personally, but it does mark a bit of a chance from Joey being the anointed one.

[hugonaut]

He's alright IMO but can be a bit sensationalist. His analysis gets a lot of traction across other podcasts and I'd say that's what he's aiming for here but I think he's screwed the pooch.

I like Birch, enjoy his work and respect his opinion, but I disagree on this point. I recognise that I'm coming at it from a Leinster perspective, but it's kind of difficult to see how you can see it from another perspective without venturing into conspiracy theory territory.

[riocard911]

It is amazing how so many of the rugby commentators advance what they would like to see rather than assess what they have seen. To a man/woman they all want Joey picked at 10 this week. I too would love to see the Joey of 2016-18 thrive in the green 10 shirt. But the fact of the matter is that he has fared quite poorly when given the role. He did help to close out the win over NZ last November but otherwise it is hard to think of any occasion that he grabbed a game by the scruff of the neck and got his back line moving. Most fundamental of all is the established fact that his defence is nowhere near international standard and to continue to select him will only result in the concession of easy scores.

He has had his chance and he deserved that chance but a cold assessment of his performances in recent matches can only lead to the conclusion that it is time to try Frawley or Harry ( or Ben Healy or Crowley ). There is a real danger of sleep walking into the repeated and damaging over reliance on Jonny for the World Cup but we need to face the fact that Joey is not the man to step up.

I often think of the post that somebody put up here about 18 months ago pointing out that Ntmack is the same age if not a little younger than Harry. OK he is a better and less injury prone player than HB but the difference in the quality and quantity of their minutes of playing time both at club and international level is stark. I very much doubt that Smith would be anywhere near as advanced in his career as he now is had he been Irish.

+1

[Blue Man]

I listened to the Molecast at lunchtime. It was the one from the morning of the Maori game. They really should be getting a wider audience as the provide more insight into Irish rugby than the talking heads on the other podcasts that are floating around.

Then again, they would have to dop the "fuc.s"

Plus 1

[Logorrhea]

So again, simple question - who do you bring in at hooker and TH lock at the moment to improve this?

its not about who we should pick, its about NOT picking Sheehan and Ryan. Sometimes just knocking players is enough.

[dropkick]

I'm on board the Farrell train but questions are rightfully asked about the scrum. In this instance a moneyball move could be something like swapping Warwick for Porter. If he can lock out the scrum that is a certain amount of penalties saved which outweighs Porters overall impact.


As I said though I think Farrell is on the right track and it's easy for anyone, myself included, to be critical of certain areas while ignoring the big picture.


This Saturday the match is going to be in a roofed stadium which should suit irelands possession game. Whitelock is missing which is a boost for Ireland although NZ will have others returning.

[Dexter]

I listened to the Molecast at lunchtime. It was the one from the morning of the Maori game. They really should be getting a wider audience as the provide more insight into Irish rugby than the talking heads on the other podcasts that are floating around.

Then again, they would have to dop the "fuc.s"

It was a great discussion alright, totally on the money for me.

[sunshiner1]

by dropkick

I'm on board the Farrell train but questions are rightfully asked about the scrum. In this instance a moneyball move could be something like swapping Warwick for Porter. If he can lock out the scrum that is a certain amount of penalties saved which outweighs Porters overall impact.

The only problem there is Warwick will give a bunch of silly penalties around the field in open play instead. You're basically following the Archer model with Munster and look how that works.

[riocard911]

According to the stats head on OTB yesterday, Porter is the leader on the Irish team for conceding penalties, so I'm not sure Warwick would actually be worse on that metric.

https://youtu.be/wIffc9FOIqI

[allezlesverres]

I'm on board the Farrell train but questions are rightfully asked about the scrum. In this instance a moneyball move could be something like swapping Warwick for Porter. If he can lock out the scrum that is a certain amount of penalties saved which outweighs Porters overall impact.

I don't think I'd go so far as to swap Porter for Warwick - as I say, I think at least part of Porter's problem is what's behind him.

But since you mention Warwick, it has to be observed that Ed Byrne got a call up over Warwick. Ed. Byrne.

Warwick is in the form of his life, is first choice in Ulster, has held his own against some of the best scrums in Europe and has contributed more effectively in the loose than at any time previously in his career. And Ed Byrne got the plane ticket before him. That must be a kick in the bag for the guy. Is Ed Byrne even 3rd choice at Leinster?

[Cheeses of Nazareth]

Would like to see the breakdown of the penalty stats. Porters down as giving away 4 penalties on ESPN, and Sheehan with 2. How many of those were scrum penalties? According to ESPN, Furlong didn’t give away any.

Interestingly in open play the stats suggest that Porter did quite well making 12 tackles, missing none, getting an offload off and making more metres than Tadgh off the same amount of ball with an equal amount of passes thrown. No ruck involvements info available. Obviously stats don’t paint the whole picture but Porter gives a huge amount around the pitch but there seems to be a strange narrative in some corners that he’s actually an issue/not playing well.

https://www.espn.com/rugby/playerstats? ... gue=289234

[hugonaut]

Interesting to hear Matt Williams starting to question whether Joey is the right man to back up J10.

First mainstream media voice I've heard raising it.

Wouldn't exactly rate Mattie as an analyst personally, but it does mark a bit of a chance from Joey being the anointed one.

Interesting indeed.

Lots of predictable internet furore at lunchtime about the likelihood of Ireland selecting Sexton for the second test, calls for Carbery to start and accusations that Ireland's coaches are sleep-walking into "the same situation" as RWC15 and RWC19, tournaments where
a] we would have beaten Argentina in the QF without Paul O'Connell, Sean O'Brien, Peter O'Mahony, Jared Payne and Tommy Bowe [2015]; and/or
b] knocked out champions-elect South Africa [2019] in an alternate QF pairing;
if Sexton had played against Argentina [2015 QF] and Japan [2019 group stages] respectively, even though he is over-rated.

For reference:

Carbery has played in every one of Ireland's last 11 games dating back to this time last summer, and started five of them - Japan & USA in the summer, Argentina in November, France and Italy in the Six Nations. So 5+6, 505 mins [source: https://www.irishrugby.ie/player/joey-carbery/ ]

Sexton has played in seven of Ireland's last 11 games and started six of them – Japan and New Zealand in November; Wales, England and Scotland in the Six Nations and last weekend against New Zealand: 6+1, 405 mins [source: https://www.irishrugby.ie/player/johnny-sexton/ ]

Please feel free to roll this out as required. All this talk about Ireland not having a plan if Sexton gets injured, not investing time in back-ups, not giving Joey a chance – it's all nonsense. It doesn't have anything to do with what is actually happening. This is the most basic and easily available information you can get with regards to selection ['chances'] or minutes ['gametime'].

I don't agree that Joey is the second best No10 in the country, but it's really, really, really f*cking obvious that he's the coaches' back-up No10 and they are giving him a] loads of chances and b] loads of gametime.

[ronk]

Nonsense isn't a strong enough word. There's a serious level of groupthink that's disconnected to reality. Even the idea of a selection debate is seriously strange. A year ago there were concerns when some people thought he was fading. Those have been put to bed and the gap is now larger than when Carbery was still at Leinster.

People also lose sight of the fact that NZ were playing their first game in front of a full crowd after a bigger lockdown than even us. They were riding an emotional wave that made them almost unbeatable, we actually played well.

[Flash Gordon]

Nonsense isn't a strong enough word. There's a serious level of groupthink that's disconnected to reality. Even the idea of a selection debate is seriously strange. A year ago there were concerns when some people thought he was fading. Those have been put to bed and the gap is now larger than when Carbery was still at Leinster.

People also lose sight of the fact that NZ were playing their first game in front of a full crowd after a bigger lockdown than even us. They were riding an emotional wave that made them almost unbeatable, we actually played well.

I would say the opposite of what you said on them being unbeatable. We had beaten them and there was a massive amount of hype around the fact that they haven't lost at Eden Park since 1994. We had them on the rack in the first quarter, they were struggling to live with us and they looked nervy and unsure. We gifted them opportunities, let them back in and they visibly grew in confidence. As I said, poor execution of the right game plan lost us the game. The work on is get better at the execution of the right game plan not move to a completely different game plan using the type of players we actually don't have!!

[Xanthippe]

Would like to see the breakdown of the penalty stats. Porters down as giving away 4 penalties on ESPN, and Sheehan with 2. How many of those were scrum penalties? According to ESPN, Furlong didn’t give away any.

Interestingly in open play the stats suggest that Porter did quite well making 12 tackles, missing none, getting an offload off and making more metres than Tadgh off the same amount of ball with an equal amount of passes thrown. No ruck involvements info available. Obviously stats don’t paint the whole picture but Porter gives a huge amount around the pitch but there seems to be a strange narrative in some corners that he’s actually an issue/not playing well.

https://www.espn.com/rugby/playerstats? ... gue=289234

From what I can see our 10 penalties were

• 3 x scrum penalties

• 5 x offside penalties

• 1 x hands in ruck

• 1 x tackler not rolling

14 mins - scrum pen (Porter)
37 mins - offside (Ryan)
40 mins - offside (Porter)
48 mins - hands in ruck (?)
49 mins - offside at lineout (?)
51 mins - scrum pen - (Porter)
67 mins - not rolling away (Treadwell)
68 mins - offside (Sheehan)
70 mins - scrum pen (?)
73 mins - offside (Henshaw)

the offenders for the three un-named penalties were:
Porter x 1
Sheehan x 1
O'Mahony x 1