RWC 2023: Ireland

[fourthirtythree]

He's said things fairly recently:
https://www.irishmirror.ie/sport/rugby- ... n-24528935

And Johnno has replied too:
https://www.sportsjoe.ie/rugby/johnny-s ... ney-235286

But it has to be noted that there seemed to be some issue that Schmidt didn't trust him as much as I would have thought was warranted. And I thought Connacht dropped him as soon as Marmion was fit (which based on their relative performance made no sense to me) so his Ulster status is the part that's out of character with managers. None of his previous managers seemed to trust him, Sexton or no.

[ronk]

The irony of talking about positivity while publicly attacking a former team mate was not lost on me.

Not sure what that "Tackle Your Feelings" was meant to be seen that way.

[Ruckedtobits]

It may have slipped past some, but John Ryan started for the Chiefs in their defeat of the Hurricanes on Friday. Having previously come off the bench in their defeat of Crusaders, he started and played 60 minutes against a strong Hurricanes pack who were defeated by 28-7 in a four-try victory for the Chiefs.

An excellent standard of rugby for a player who must surely be on the radar for the Irish RWC Squad.

[Ruckedtobits]

And John Ryan starts again for the Chiefs who score 6 tries and run out 44 - 25 winners against Melbourne to lead in the Super Rugby Table with 19 points from four games.

Chiefs are playing a serious brand of rugby and Ryan is looking fitter than any time in his career. He played 54 minutes of highly effective rugby.

[Twist]

It may have slipped past some, but John Ryan started for the Chiefs in their defeat of the Hurricanes on Friday. Having previously come off the bench in their defeat of Crusaders, he started and played 60 minutes against a strong Hurricanes pack who were defeated by 28-7 in a four-try victory for the Chiefs.

An excellent standard of rugby for a player who must surely be on the radar for the Irish RWC Squad.

Yeah I tend to agree. He’s always been international class in a few areas, but this late career surge he’s having is filling in the gaps

[Ruckedtobits]

Another 60+ mins for John Ryan against the Waratahs in another Chiefs win keeping them top of the log. Watched a lot and he works hard in scrum and maul but apart from that, he takes lots of "smart routes" to next breakdown.

[matt]

Great depth now in almost every position and Ross Byrne getting good experience as no 2 to Sexton.

Most worried about who would replace JVDF if he got an injury. O’Mahoney has done well at 6 playing 50 mins and full 80 against Scotland but against a top level team may not have the mobility for no 7.

If Connors got back to full fitness he probably get in squad ahead of other 7’s like Penny, Hodnett, Timoney. I rate Deegan highly but not sure if he could cover 7.

[Twist]

Great depth now in almost every position and Ross Byrne getting good experience as no 2 to Sexton.

Most worried about who would replace JVDF if he got an injury. O’Mahoney has done well at 6 playing 50 mins and full 80 against Scotland but against a top level team may not have the mobility for no 7.

If Connors got back to full fitness he probably get in squad ahead of other 7’s like Penny, Hodnett, Timoney. I rate Deegan highly but not sure if he could cover 7.

I wonder whats happening in the parallel universe where Andy Farrell has to choose between JvdF and a fit Dan Leavy

[Oldschool]

Great depth now in almost every position and Ross Byrne getting good experience as no 2 to Sexton.

Most worried about who would replace JVDF if he got an injury. O’Mahoney has done well at 6 playing 50 mins and full 80 against Scotland but against a top level team may not have the mobility for no 7.

If Connors got back to full fitness he probably get in squad ahead of other 7’s like Penny, Hodnett, Timoney. I rate Deegan highly but not sure if he could cover 7.

I wonder whats happening in the parallel universe where Andy Farrell has to choose between JvdF and a fit Dan Leavy

That's a easy one. Dan at 6

[offshorerules]

If I were selecting an Irish squad and everyone's available this is what I'd go for...

Loose head 1 Porter
2 Healy
3 Kilcoyne
Hooker 1 Sheahan
2 Kellegher
3 Herring
Tight Head 1 Furlong
2 Bealham
3 O'Toole
Lock 1 Ryan
2 Beirne
3 Henderson
4 Treadwell
Back Row 1 Dorris
2 Van der Flier
3 O'Mahony
4 Conan
5 Baird
Scrum Half 1 Gibson Park
2 Casey
3 Murray
Out Half 1 Sexton
2 Byrne
3 Crowley
Centre 1 Henshaw
2 Ringrose
3 Aki
4 McCloskey
Back 3 1 Lowe
2 Hansen
3 Keenan
4 O'Brien
5 Earls

33 total

[FtD]

If I were selecting an Irish squad and everyone's available this is what I'd go for...

Loose head 1 Porter
2 Healy
3 Kilcoyne
Hooker 1 Sheahan
2 Kellegher
3 Herring
Tight Head 1 Furlong
2 Bealham
3 O'Toole
Lock 1 Ryan
2 Beirne
3 Henderson
4 Treadwell
Back Row 1 Dorris
2 Van der Flier
3 O'Mahony
4 Conan
5 Baird
Scrum Half 1 Gibson Park
2 Casey
3 Murray
Out Half 1 Sexton
2 Byrne
3 Crowley
Centre 1 Henshaw
2 Ringrose
3 Aki
4 McCloskey
Back 3 1 Lowe
2 Hansen
3 Keenan
4 O'Brien
5 Earls

33 total

Curious as to what people see in Kieran Treadwell that has him consistently included in these squads.

No one will ever convince me he is a better player than Ross Molony - and while he had some relatively effective outings off the bench against NZ last summer, I still see a limited enough player, a really poor carrier, with poor handling and sub-optimal size. He's not an elite line out operator and doesn't have a history of turning in big impactful performances at domestic or international level.

I think it's a bizarre world where he's racked up 11 caps for Ireland and Molony remains uncapped, but I'd rank him behind all of Joe McCarthy, Tom Ahern, Ed Edogbo, Harry Sheridan and Niall Murray too if I was selecting the squad.

Also curious on the Earls inclusion - he's barely played all season (and hasn't been good in the little he did play). He'll be 36 during the World Cup. I'd take any of Jordan Larmour, Robert Baloucoune, Jacob Stockdale or Calvin Nash ahead of him at this point.

[Morf]

Curious as to what people see in Kieran Treadwell that has him consistently included in these squads.

No one will ever convince me he is a better player than Ross Molony - and while he had some relatively effective outings off the bench against NZ last summer, I still see a limited enough player, a really poor carrier, with poor handling and sub-optimal size. He's not an elite line out operator and doesn't have a history of turning in big impactful performances at domestic or international level.

I think it's a bizarre world where he's racked up 11 caps for Ireland and Molony remains uncapped, but I'd rank him behind all of Joe McCarthy, Tom Ahern, Ed Edogbo, Harry Sheridan and Niall Murray too if I was selecting the squad.

Also curious on the Earls inclusion - he's barely played all season (and hasn't been good in the little he did play). He'll be 36 during the World Cup. I'd take any of Jordan Larmour, Robert Baloucoune, Jacob Stockdale or Calvin Nash ahead of him at this point.

Treadwell has the physicality to do well when on form at test level.
Molony struggles in this regard whether in form or not.

[offshorerules]

If I were selecting an Irish squad and everyone's available this is what I'd go for...

Loose head 1 Porter
2 Healy
3 Kilcoyne
Hooker 1 Sheahan
2 Kellegher
3 Herring
Tight Head 1 Furlong
2 Bealham
3 O'Toole
Lock 1 Ryan
2 Beirne
3 Henderson
4 Treadwell
Back Row 1 Dorris
2 Van der Flier
3 O'Mahony
4 Conan
5 Baird
Scrum Half 1 Gibson Park
2 Casey
3 Murray
Out Half 1 Sexton
2 Byrne
3 Crowley
Centre 1 Henshaw
2 Ringrose
3 Aki
4 McCloskey
Back 3 1 Lowe
2 Hansen
3 Keenan
4 O'Brien
5 Earls

33 total

Curious as to what people see in Kieran Treadwell that has him consistently included in these squads.

No one will ever convince me he is a better player than Ross Molony - and while he had some relatively effective outings off the bench against NZ last summer, I still see a limited enough player, a really poor carrier, with poor handling and sub-optimal size. He's not an elite line out operator and doesn't have a history of turning in big impactful performances at domestic or international level.

I think it's a bizarre world where he's racked up 11 caps for Ireland and Molony remains uncapped, but I'd rank him behind all of Joe McCarthy, Tom Ahern, Ed Edogbo, Harry Sheridan and Niall Murray too if I was selecting the squad.

Also curious on the Earls inclusion - he's barely played all season (and hasn't been good in the little he did play). He'll be 36 during the World Cup. I'd take any of Jordan Larmour, Robert Baloucoune, Jacob Stockdale or Calvin Nash ahead of him at this point.

Earls quite simply I think will be selected based on his experience. I've had a bit of a re-think re Treadwell and I'm now thinking that if McCarthy can prove his fitness he might be in with a shout.

[FtD]

Curious as to what people see in Kieran Treadwell that has him consistently included in these squads.

No one will ever convince me he is a better player than Ross Molony - and while he had some relatively effective outings off the bench against NZ last summer, I still see a limited enough player, a really poor carrier, with poor handling and sub-optimal size. He's not an elite line out operator and doesn't have a history of turning in big impactful performances at domestic or international level.

I think it's a bizarre world where he's racked up 11 caps for Ireland and Molony remains uncapped, but I'd rank him behind all of Joe McCarthy, Tom Ahern, Ed Edogbo, Harry Sheridan and Niall Murray too if I was selecting the squad.

Also curious on the Earls inclusion - he's barely played all season (and hasn't been good in the little he did play). He'll be 36 during the World Cup. I'd take any of Jordan Larmour, Robert Baloucoune, Jacob Stockdale or Calvin Nash ahead of him at this point.

Treadwell has the physicality to do well when on form at test level.
Molony struggles in this regard whether in form or not.

I don't really know where Treadwell has demonstrated that, and it's hard to make that accusation at Molony when he hasn't ever been given the opportunity.

If you look at Molony's performances as part of a pack that dismantled Toulouse in the European Cup semi in 2021/22, or numerous times this season, show me where Treadwell has turned in that sort of performance?

I think he's a guy who looks like an athlete, but really doesn't deliver. He is probably the least impactful carrier in the Ulster pack (and they're a poor carrying pack) - having made just 40m from 71 carries across his 13 appearances this season, an average of 0.6m per carry.

I genuinely just don't see it with this guy.

He's had a couple of games where he's been dropped into a team that's performing really well (like coming off the bench in NZ) and he hasn't done anything wrong, but you can't show me games where he's stood up and took the game by the scruff of the neck like Ross Molony has a few times imo.

[Morf]

I'm giving you what I think is a reasonable justification - not my personal belief.

[CiaranIrl]

I don't think it makes sense to bring 9 outside backs and just 5 back rows. Back 3 isn't very attritional either, other than needing to manage Lowe's game time & fitness. One of the reasons to bring Crowley is because he covers multiple positions. I wouldn't bring either of McCloskey or Earls. I'd bring Larmour and an extra back row. One of Penny (my preference), Coombes, Prendergast or Connors.

[hugonaut]

I don't think it makes sense to bring 9 outside backs and just 5 back rows. Back 3 isn't very attritional either, other than needing to manage Lowe's game time & fitness. One of the reasons to bring Crowley is because he covers multiple positions. I wouldn't bring either of McCloskey or Earls. I'd bring Larmour and an extra back row. One of Penny (my preference), Coombes, Prendergast or Connors.

Yeah, we need cover most at openside.

We have Romania, Tonga, South Africa, Scotland, in that order. At this juncture, it looks extremely likely that our four backrows in the matchday squad for the big games will be POM, JVDF, Doris and Conan. So it's about getting them to the SA game in good shape, and then them having enough in the tank to be able to perform for [hopefully] five big games in a row.

There's almost certainly going to be two No8s in the squad in Doris and Conan. Let's say Conan plays the first two games and is on the bench for the next three-four-five.

So you need to cover both the flankers for the first two games. O'Mahony and Doris played No6 in this Six Nations, Tadhg Beirne played there twice in the 2021 Six Nations [and has started five games for Ireland at blindside in his career and three times for the B&I Lions], and Baird has mostly played there for Leinster this season – 9 out of his 10 starts in blue have been at No6. So we'll have four guys in the squad who have good experience at blindside.

O'Mahony has played openside for Ireland before - 6 times in 94 test appearances. The downside is that he is going to turn 34 the day after our second match during the tournament. So it's not a good idea to expect him to cover openside.

If you look at how the 2015 ABs and the 2019 Boks won their World Cups, they basically picked their best team in their five big games [two tough pool games, three knockouts] and then used the rest of the squad in their two easy pool games.

[ronk]

The schedule is gentle, more so than you'd think based on previous RWCs.

We have 3 games with a 7 day rest each then a week off before Scotland. The 1st 2 games will mostly about keeping everyone warm, unless we're already battling injuries by then.

Rotating at the RWC is now as useful as rotating during the 6N. And the squad is bigger to boot.

The reality is that POM was the go to guy if Josh got injured during the 6N and he still will be for the RWC unless someone really steps up and there isn't a lot of time. Connors needs to be impressing by this weekend, URC knockouts at the outside.

With POM able to switch then the 6th backrow can be anyone. And if it's Beirne then we can run an extra lock. So really it only needs someone to be a genuine option in any 1 of 5 positions to lock in a place. Deeper down the depth chart only comes into it with lots in injuries.

VdF is the only specialist backrow, everyone else plays at least 2 positions.

[CiaranIrl]

The schedule is gentle, more so than you'd think based on previous RWCs.

We have 3 games with a 7 day rest each then a week off before Scotland. The 1st 2 games will mostly about keeping everyone warm, unless we're already battling injuries by then.

Rotating at the RWC is now as useful as rotating during the 6N. And the squad is bigger to boot.

The reality is that POM was the go to guy if Josh got injured during the 6N and he still will be for the RWC unless someone really steps up and there isn't a lot of time. Connors needs to be impressing by this weekend, URC knockouts at the outside.

With POM able to switch then the 6th backrow can be anyone. And if it's Beirne then we can run an extra lock. So really it only needs someone to be a genuine option in any 1 of 5 positions to lock in a place. Deeper down the depth chart only comes into it with lots in injuries.

VdF is the only specialist backrow, everyone else plays at least 2 positions.

The problem with 5 backrows is that you need 4 for every matchday 23, so just one spare if you bring 5. Whereas you need 6 outside backs in every 23, so bringing 9 leaves 3 spare. Every world cup squad as far back as I remember has carried a totally superfluous outside back - it has annoyed me as far back as Brian Carney in 07.

The problem is if you have a player carrying a 1-2 week injury, you have to either keep them or replace them permanently.

[ronk]

I think we need a 6th backrow. No arguments there.

I think we should bring the best player we have, and not worry about position too much. Because we don't have to.