Oldschool wrote:The replacement process needs to be carefully managed. The older a player is the sooner he gets replaced.
The aim should be to have the changeover more or less complete and certainly well on the way in roughly two years.
This means the younger players have to be eased into the squad over the 2 year period.
We're talking about 12 new faces roughly. Some of the replacement already a work in progress.
Luke, Touhy, McGlaughlin, McCarthy perhaps.
Some positions need urgent action already. The hooker and Prop position for example.
Prop:
We have three functioning props right now, Healy, Ross and Court (And that's being optimistic).
We need another four/five for the WC and we need 2/3as a matter of urgency.
They are in the pipeline, but we need to start exposing them to international competition.
Hooker:
We have Best and Cronin, who is untested. We have Strauss and Sherry in the pipeline.
Second Row:
We have Touhy, McCarthy in the pipeline, with Nagle and Toner as other possibilities.
Back row:
Is probably OK, but we do need a couple of genuine 7s - The WC has proved this and we must adapt. Do we even have a pipeline?
Peter O'Mahoney has impressed for Munster. Dominic Ryan and Ruddock are other possibilities. What's the story with Faloon?
Scrum half:
Looks like a problem area in 4 years time. Murray is being touted as the heir apparent, but he needs competition for the position.
Out half:
Looks OK - Keatley and Madigan are already showing form. Keatley first and then Madigan need international exposure sooner rather than later, because this such a key position.
Centres:
D'Arcy's replacenment first and use Bod to bed him in. Trimble, McFadden and Spense need to be brought in asap.
Bod might be good for another two years and towards the end of that time he should get 50 minutes only as his replacement is introduced.
Bowe, McFadden and Cave are the main contenders.
Wingers:
Earls and Luke are fine, but Gilroy is looking like the real deal already and Hurley looks pretty capable too. Conway is another.
FB:
Kearney and who else - Actually the Connacht FB looks pretty useful.
Marginal Calls:- POC and Ross are two players that fall into this category. Great to have them, if they're OK in four years time, but there is a but.
It should be assumed, quite frankly that anybody posting on this topic is not calling for a slash and burn approach, without having to specifically say so.
It's more about where we should be in 4 years time, than the nitty gritty of how we get there.
A measured but identifiable timeline is required.
We must use our bench, with a strong bias towards giving the next generation their chance.
We also need to look at our coaching team. I think having foreign coaches in the setup is the right way to go.
Do we want to make more use of Greg Feek. Is/Should there be a role for Schmidt.
We need to think about the captaincy and when the changeover should take place.
And we need to look at the reason why we are not doing better in all international competitions.
Over the last 10 years we are the perennial under achievers. Why is this?
My heart wants to give the WC squad, in it's entirety one more shot at a GS. My head says, it's time to start to move on.
Thankfully Declan Kidney has to make that decision.
Great review of our situation.
My only problem is the last bit. If we want to perform at the RWC then progressively stronger 6N and AI performances become more important in 2014 and 2015. Going into the next RWC battle-hardened and on the back of a strong run of form and results would be immensely valuable. The seeds of doubt need to be sown in SH minds long before they arrive for the tournament proper (consider England in 2003 for example, they went and beat the SH teams in the SH before the RWC). Also, the confidence to beat our nearest and dearest also needs to arise form having done it repeatedly immediately before the tournament rather than the time before last. My concern is that a year's delay in beginning the transition reduces the likelihood of that happening if you presume that a team has to lose before it learns to win. I'd prefer a couple of lean years now with the prospect of rewards thereafter instead of a bonanza next year followed by a fallow period that includes the next RWC.
I'm not saying change for change's sake, but rather that change should be planned so as to ensure a strong run in 2014 and 2015 rather than a strong run from the second pool match onwards in RWC 2015 ... defeat yesterday would not have happened if the team had been winning for more than the past few weeks (IMHO).
PS. I particularly take your point about BOD to be limited to 50 mins per run as he transitions. I had been thinking about that earlier today and settled on 40, but the principle is the same.
PPS. DK has to take these decisions, but I'm not all that thankful for that. The approach I favour is one where a settled team emerges and is strongly supported by the management, DK has shown clear ability to do this (e.g. TOL). But I prefer the Aus version, where there is loyalty shown and players know their value to the squad BUT if they start playing like sh!t (e.g. TOL) they get booted into touch and left there until it is clear they are back to where they need to be(e.g. not TOL). The TOL saga and the ROG situation have compounded my doubt of DK as manager - the original doubt (heavily seasoned with dismay and anger) having been sown by the teams performances in 2010 and 2011. My personal view is that DK should be shuffled upwards, sidewards or outwards; I'm sure he can play a role but he shouldn't be given responsibility for selection or tactical issues.
