Ulster v Leinster Fri 7.35 BBC NI & RTE

[neill_m]

Referee: Andrew Brace
AR: Eoghan Cross, Andrew Cole
TMO: Brian McNeice

[IanD]

Referee: Andrew Brace
AR: Eoghan Cross, Andrew Cole
TMO: Brian McNeice

Well that is the match ruined so.

[Serb]

Brace is fine, it’ll be a good game.

[curates_egg]

Brace is fine, it’ll be a good game.

He is maybe the least bad of the Munster branch refs, but he is not good and tends to make mistakes. However, I don't think he is as conflicted by bias as some of his predecessors were (what with not being from Cork or Limerick).

Anyway, the key, as always is not to give these refs an opportunity to play a decisive role in games.

[allezlesverres]

Bookies have Ulster at 1 point favourites. I'll wait to see the team but that is very tempting for a small wager.

Surprised to see that I have to say. Whilst Ulster have home advantage, this will the strongest Leinster team to play in Belfast for many years (the best since 2014 when BOD last made the journey?), including a lot of the players who just beat NZ in green shirts. I was corrected on the Ulster forum in relation to how many Ulster front liners are missing due to the Emerging Ireland tour - in case anyone's interested the list is Baloucoune (starter and will be replaced by Gilroy or Sexton), McIlroy (would have started in Baloucoune's absence), McCann (would probably have started, will be replaced by Matt Rea), Doak (bench will be replaced by Shanahan), Moore (bench will be replaced by Curtis), Izuchukwu (bench will be replaced by Bradshaw-Ryan). My personal view is that whilst Ulster will miss all of those players to some extent, their absence is unlikely to make or break the game. It is a shame though that such a pointless tour is taking the shine of what could/should be an interpro for the ages. I'm expecting a tight game and if I was setting the odds at the bookies I'd have made Leinster something like 2 or 3 point favourites.

[neill_m]

Ulster 23 from last week, at this point in the week, only Reffell on the bench has been ruled out with a hamstring injury.

(15-9): Michael Lowry, Aaron Sexton, Luke Marshall, Stuart McCloskey, Jacob Stockdale, Billy Burns, John Cooney;

(1-8): Andy Warwick, Rob Herring, Marty Moore, Alan O’Connor (Captain), Kieran Treadwell, Matty Rea, Marcus Rea, Nick Timoney.

Replacements: Declan Moore, Eric O’Sullivan, Tom O’Toole, Sam Carter, Sean Reffell, Dave Shanahan, Angus Curtis, Craig Gilroy.

[wixfjord]

Bookies have Ulster at 1 point favourites. I'll wait to see the team but that is very tempting for a small wager.

Surprised to see that I have to say. Whilst Ulster have home advantage, this will the strongest Leinster team to play in Belfast for many years (the best since 2014 when BOD last made the journey?), including a lot of the players who just beat NZ in green shirts. I was corrected on the Ulster forum in relation to how many Ulster front liners are missing due to the Emerging Ireland tour - in case anyone's interested the list is Baloucoune (starter and will be replaced by Gilroy or Sexton), McIlroy (would have started in Baloucoune's absence), McCann (would probably have started, will be replaced by Matt Rea), Doak (bench will be replaced by Shanahan), Moore (bench will be replaced by Curtis), Izuchukwu (bench will be replaced by Bradshaw-Ryan). My personal view is that whilst Ulster will miss all of those players to some extent, their absence is unlikely to make or break the game. It is a shame though that such a pointless tour is taking the shine of what could/should be an interpro for the ages. I'm expecting a tight game and if I was setting the odds at the bookies I'd have made Leinster something like 2 or 3 point favourites.

It's really not taking the shine off it though is it?

There's a reason Ulster are well regarded by the odds makers - because they've a really strong side backboned by internationals and quality league players.

Balacoune is really the only big loss there in terms of starting 15.

The side neil_m has posted above is a serious outfit with a few games under their belt playing at home against a Leinster side likely to be re-introducing 4-5 guys who haven't played this season. So will be a close one.

[LeinsterLeader]

Bookies have Ulster at 1 point favourites. I'll wait to see the team but that is very tempting for a small wager.

Surprised to see that I have to say. Whilst Ulster have home advantage, this will the strongest Leinster team to play in Belfast for many years (the best since 2014 when BOD last made the journey?), including a lot of the players who just beat NZ in green shirts. I was corrected on the Ulster forum in relation to how many Ulster front liners are missing due to the Emerging Ireland tour - in case anyone's interested the list is Baloucoune (starter and will be replaced by Gilroy or Sexton), McIlroy (would have started in Baloucoune's absence), McCann (would probably have started, will be replaced by Matt Rea), Doak (bench will be replaced by Shanahan), Moore (bench will be replaced by Curtis), Izuchukwu (bench will be replaced by Bradshaw-Ryan). My personal view is that whilst Ulster will miss all of those players to some extent, their absence is unlikely to make or break the game. It is a shame though that such a pointless tour is taking the shine of what could/should be an interpro for the ages. I'm expecting a tight game and if I was setting the odds at the bookies I'd have made Leinster something like 2 or 3 point favourites.

It's really not taking the shine off it though is it?

There's a reason Ulster are well regarded by the odds makers - because they've a really strong side backboned by internationals and quality league players.

Balacoune is really the only big loss there in terms of starting 15.

The side neil_m has posted above is a serious outfit with a few games under their belt playing at home against a Leinster side likely to be re-introducing 4-5 guys who haven't played this season. So will be a close one.

Yep that would be my thoughts and for those reasons I'd make Ulster a score (somewhere between 3 and 7 points) favorites. So with that being said I'd take a one score loss, a bonus point and an improvement in the back line over what we've seen so far.

I say that now but usually if we're in touch going into the home straight I get greedy and want it all

[wixfjord]

Surprised to see that I have to say. Whilst Ulster have home advantage, this will the strongest Leinster team to play in Belfast for many years (the best since 2014 when BOD last made the journey?), including a lot of the players who just beat NZ in green shirts. I was corrected on the Ulster forum in relation to how many Ulster front liners are missing due to the Emerging Ireland tour - in case anyone's interested the list is Baloucoune (starter and will be replaced by Gilroy or Sexton), McIlroy (would have started in Baloucoune's absence), McCann (would probably have started, will be replaced by Matt Rea), Doak (bench will be replaced by Shanahan), Moore (bench will be replaced by Curtis), Izuchukwu (bench will be replaced by Bradshaw-Ryan). My personal view is that whilst Ulster will miss all of those players to some extent, their absence is unlikely to make or break the game. It is a shame though that such a pointless tour is taking the shine of what could/should be an interpro for the ages. I'm expecting a tight game and if I was setting the odds at the bookies I'd have made Leinster something like 2 or 3 point favourites.

It's really not taking the shine off it though is it?

There's a reason Ulster are well regarded by the odds makers - because they've a really strong side backboned by internationals and quality league players.

Balacoune is really the only big loss there in terms of starting 15.

The side neil_m has posted above is a serious outfit with a few games under their belt playing at home against a Leinster side likely to be re-introducing 4-5 guys who haven't played this season. So will be a close one.

Yep that would be my thoughts and for those reasons I'd make Ulster a score (somewhere between 3 and 7 points) favorites. So with that being said I'd take a one score loss, a bonus point and an improvement in the back line over what we've seen so far.

I say that now but usually if we're in touch going into the home straight I get greedy and want it all

I think if you look at the pack battle, I'd take probably all of our potential 1-8 ahead of the opposing numbers.

That becomes far less clear in the backline and Ulster have quite a few gamebreakers.

The big challenge here is that we're giving more guys their first start of the season and they've played a similar team for two games in a row iirc, which should even things up a bit.

[allezlesverres]

Looking at the probable teams I'd say:

Front row: Advantage Leinster
Second row: Advantage Leinster
Back row: Significant advantage Leinster
SH: Tight. If deciding on International honours Advantage Leinster but I'm calling this one evens
OH: Significant advantage Leinster while Sexton is on but would only expect him to do 40mins max. After that, probably tight
Centres: Tighter than it looks on paper but nonetheless advantage Leinster
Back 3: Advantage Ulster - would have been significant advantage Ulster if Baloucoune was available

Given the forecast is wet and windy you'd expect the team with the wiser 10 and stronger pack to do better.

[HammerTime]

Problem for us (Ulster) is it is to lash it down which with that Leinster pack will be a big advantage to you. The likes of stockdale, Lowry and sexton might rarely see the ball.

[mildlyinterested]

Leinster Rugby (caps in brackets):

15. Jimmy O’Brien (54)
14. Jordan Larmour (75)
13. Garry Ringrose (103) CAPTAIN
12. Robbie Henshaw (69)
11. Dave Kearney (175)
10. Ross Byrne (130)
9. Luke McGrath (177)
1. Andrew Porter (92)
2. Dan Sheehan (30)
3. Michael Ala’alatoa (27)
4. Ross Molony (141)
5. Jason Jenkins (2)
6. Ryan Baird (39)
7. Josh van der Flier (115)
8. Jack Conan (117)

16. Rónan Kelleher (38)
17. Ed Byrne (87)
18. Vakhtang Abdaladze (18)
19. James Ryan (58)
20. Will Connors (27)
21. Nick McCarthy (47)
22. Johnny Sexton (184)
23. Charlie Ngatai (2)

[D4surfer]

Ulster Team

(15-9): Michael Lowry, Aaron Sexton, Luke Marshall, Stuart McCloskey, Jacob Stockdale, Billy Burns, John Cooney;

(1-8): Andy Warwick, Rob Herring, Tom O’Toole, Alan O’Connor (Captain), Kieran Treadwell, Matty Rea, Marcus Rea, Nick Timoney.

Replacements: John Andrew, Eric O’Sullivan, Marty Moore, Sam Carter, Greg Jones, David Shanahan, Angus Curtis, Ben Moxham.

[wixfjord]

Not a big fan of that 9/10 combo but other than that looks strong.

Baird is clearly being given a good shot at blindside. This will be a good test for him.

JGP obviously not over his illness.

Good to see Vakh get the shout on the bench. Tadhg obviously not back yet.

Looks like Ed Byrne has usurped Healy at sub LH. That could have huge ramifications for Ireland.

[LeinsterLeader]

Problem for us (Ulster) is it is to lash it down which with that Leinster pack will be a big advantage to you. The likes of stockdale, Lowry and sexton might rarely see the ball.

Stop getting your excuses in early, HammerTime .......... that's our thing

[wixfjord]

Actually on reflection if it is to be bad weather and given the relative pack strengths, having Luke at 9 might be a good option. He tends to manage forwards well in interpros. Hopefully he has his box kicking boots on.

One area we have a clear advantage is backrow imo.

[wixfjord]

Interesting that betting has gone from Leinster +1 to Leinster -3 based on team sheets.

Not sure what different teams the bookies had assumed would be starting?!

[jezzer]

Somewhat shocked to suddenly cop Connors only has 27 Leinster appearances. Injuries have really robbed him. Fingers crossed it's all in the past.

[Twist]

Interesting that betting has gone from Leinster +1 to Leinster -3 based on team sheets.

Not sure what different teams the bookies had assumed would be starting?!

I had heard Sexton was expected to start at 10. That might account for the 4 point swing

[D4surfer]

Interesting that betting has gone from Leinster +1 to Leinster -3 based on team sheets.

Not sure what different teams the bookies had assumed would be starting?!

I had heard Sexton was expected to start at 10. That might account for the 4 point swing

The bookies handicap has gone from Leinster losing by 1 point to Leinster winning by 3 points.