Leinster v. Connacht, FRI 03 DEC, 1945hrs, Beo ar TG4 agus Premier Sport 2

[limecat]

Match Preview

Every time referee Frank Murphy gets assigned a match, you can hear an angel cry.

You know that, win or lose, it will be a pretty awful game in which Frank and his whistle will be the star. The breakdown will be a mystery novel and the offside line will be as forgotten as Friendster. It is known.

Yet, everyone who's watched Murphy over the last few years knows what he's like but Ulster seemed to be the only team who read the brief last Saturday night at the RDS. Ulster tuned their gameplan perfectly, rushed up offside all night and completely disrupted Leinster's rhythm. They were also more up for the physical challenge and thoroughly deserved their win.

Read more...

[backrower8]

The tone here has changed notably for the better...but no doubt it will be crawling room only in the 'long grass' come game time.

HB should show progress, but not perfection. A rating of between 5 & 6 is my expectation.

4 would be acceptable.

3 concerning.

1 or 2 unacceptable.

[Oldschool]

The tone here has changed notably for the better...but no doubt it will be crawling room only in the 'long grass' come game time.

HB should show progress, but not perfection. A rating of between 5 & 6 is my expectation.

4 would be acceptable.

3 concerning.

1 or 2 unacceptable.

Very harsh.
Making it onto the pitch and playing for 60 minutes gets him an automatic 4.
Anything after is a bonus.
If he has a howler, which is unlikely I'd dock him 1 point.
HB has buckets of talents, just needs to add game time and a little patience.
My only concern is that LMcG is at SH.
Seriously does any OH want to play outside a pass like that?

[RoboProp]

The tone here has changed notably for the better...but no doubt it will be crawling room only in the 'long grass' come game time.

HB should show progress, but not perfection. A rating of between 5 & 6 is my expectation.

4 would be acceptable.

3 concerning.

1 or 2 unacceptable.

Very harsh.
Making it onto the pitch and playing for 60 minutes gets him an automatic 4.
Anything after is a bonus.
If he has a howler, which is unlikely I'd dock him 1 point.
HB has buckets of talents, just needs to add game time and a little patience.
My only concern is that LMcG is at SH.
Seriously does any OH want to play outside a pass like that?

I think this will be a good gauge of where Harry is at, he has a nice strong pack in front of him and white hot opposition who always "bring it" when the play us. Like you say Luke having another howler could potentially be a problem, but that's another part of the 10's game is to keep those chippy little SH's honest

[curates_egg]

Looking at the respective sides on paper we should win this well.

That's a very strong Connacht side, I would have thought? And they never lack motivation.

I am enormously impressed by Mack Hansen. Will be a handful for Larmour but also deployed to cut up the middle. Reminds me a bit of Kolbe.

Which of that Connacht 23 would you swap for ours?

Maybe Marmion albeit it's a close call. Carty/Byrne is 50/50. Dillane ahead of Toner maybe? Blade ahead of McCarthy maybe?

Connacht are also missing:
Buckley, Aki, Thornbury, Daly, Boyle, Papali'i.

Like we're clearly a better side on paper by a good distance and are at home. Our backline is first choice besides a highly rated 10 with something to prove. Our pack is full of quality and experience and there's lots of bench impact to come in.

That's not arrogance, and we may lose. But if we're as good as we think we should win this well imo.

Bookies have us 17 point favourites.

I'm not a big fan of the who would you swap, because I love all our players...
But I do think Dillane is ahead of 2021 Toner. I also think you could make a decent case for their halfback starters being currently better/in better form than ours, and Blade being better than McCarthy.
And, at risk of getting banned, I think Mack Hansen is the form wing in Ireland.

Our front row, back row and centres are clearly a class above theirs though. And Keenan is on another planet right now.

It's not their strongest side, as you note, but it is still strong.
However, they have also played very cohesively as a squad in the last few rounds, and never lack motivation.

It depends if this totally different Leinster selection clicks. If it does, and with our front row and back row advantage, I do agree it should be a comfortable win. But there is that lingering if.

[erskinechilders]

Massive game for him, Connacht are gonna go after him big time. I expect Oliver to be on him like a rash all day.

[Serb]

And, at risk of getting banned, I think Mack Hansen is the form wing in Ireland.

Who’d ban you for that? He’s been absolute class for Connacht. I think Lowe is the form wing imo based on Ireland displays, but would put Hansen second. Larmour might have his hands full in defence tomorrow night.

[ronk]

Massive game for him, Connacht are gonna go after him big time. I expect Oliver to be on him like a rash all day.

Meh, I don't see Harry Byrne's issues having been from getting in his face. You want to pressure him by taking away gaps.

[CiaranIrl]

Looks like they're giving Healy, Sheehan & Big Mike a start so they get experience playing together as a front row unit. Springing that off the bench in Europe when the opposition have just been facing down Porter, Kelleher & Furlong is just cruel.

[alanair]

And, at risk of getting banned, I think Mack Hansen is the form wing in Ireland.

Who’d ban you for that? He’s been absolute class for Connacht. I think Lowe is the form wing imo based on Ireland displays, but would put Hansen second. Larmour might have his hands full in defence tomorrow night.

I would agree that Hansen is the # 1 winger at the moment

[curates_egg]

And, at risk of getting banned, I think Mack Hansen is the form wing in Ireland.

Who’d ban you for that? He’s been absolute class for Connacht. I think Lowe is the form wing imo based on Ireland displays, but would put Hansen second. Larmour might have his hands full in defence tomorrow night.

They're two totally opposing examples of a wing, despite both currently playing on the left wing.
I haven't seen enough of Hansen to know if he could switch to right. Kolbe (similar style) certainly can interchange and has also been pretty decent at fullback and even played outhalf.

Before the autumn internationals, I didn't think Lowe was in great form. He had a very good autumn series but, despite all his bollix talk, we did see some of the similar defensive problems. The question with him last season was could you be sure he would score more points than he will cost you. I think the first real test of that will be the Munster game. I wouldn't be surprised if they target him, the bollixes.

[dropkick]

And, at risk of getting banned, I think Mack Hansen is the form wing in Ireland.

Who’d ban you for that? He’s been absolute class for Connacht. I think Lowe is the form wing imo based on Ireland displays, but would put Hansen second. Larmour might have his hands full in defence tomorrow night.

I would agree that Hansen is the # 1 winger at the moment

He is leading the URC stats in line breaks, defenders beaten, tries and meters gained.

[Ruckedtobits]

And, at risk of getting banned, I think Mack Hansen is the form wing in Ireland.

Who’d ban you for that? He’s been absolute class for Connacht. I think Lowe is the form wing imo based on Ireland displays, but would put Hansen second. Larmour might have his hands full in defence tomorrow night.

They're two totally opposing examples of a wing, despite both currently playing on the left wing.
I haven't seen enough of Hansen to know if he could switch to right. Kolbe (similar style) certainly can interchange and has also been pretty decent at fullback and even played outhalf.

Before the autumn internationals, I didn't think Lowe was in great form. He had a very good autumn series but, despite all his bollix talk, we did see some of the similar defensive problems. The question with him last season was could you be sure he would score more points than he will cost you. I think the first real test of that will be the Munster game. I wouldn't be surprised if they target him, the bollixes.

We seem to have altered our defence when Keenan and Lowe are together with Keenan regularly taking the left wing position (and defensive duties) and Lowe moving to full back - and appearing to always take the last man. It's not as noticeable on TV, but is very evident when you watch it live. It's not yet clear exactly on what basis they switch but, no doubt, somebody will figure out the criteria and post the analysis.

[ronk]

2 years ago the top prospects on the wing were Stockdale and Larmour. 3 things happened to both.

A string of injuries
Counterproductive experimentation at fullback
A premium on passing ability

Both can be frustratingly selfish, they tend to back themselves and that's what they're good at (so it's not simple to just stop). Lowe's hard work wasn't just on defence, he's been contributing in attack all over too, often first receiver and throwing lots of offloads.

If Larmour can adapt and hit form he'd be better than ever.

For me the jury is still out on Hansen. Connacht have too much history carrying attacking back 3 players who didn't have the overall game to step up. But this is a good test.

[Oldschool]

Who’d ban you for that? He’s been absolute class for Connacht. I think Lowe is the form wing imo based on Ireland displays, but would put Hansen second. Larmour might have his hands full in defence tomorrow night.

They're two totally opposing examples of a wing, despite both currently playing on the left wing.
I haven't seen enough of Hansen to know if he could switch to right. Kolbe (similar style) certainly can interchange and has also been pretty decent at fullback and even played outhalf.

Before the autumn internationals, I didn't think Lowe was in great form. He had a very good autumn series but, despite all his bollix talk, we did see some of the similar defensive problems. The question with him last season was could you be sure he would score more points than he will cost you. I think the first real test of that will be the Munster game. I wouldn't be surprised if they target him, the bollixes.

We seem to have altered our defence when Keenan and Lowe are together with Keenan regularly taking the left wing position (and defensive duties) and Lowe moving to full back - and appearing to always take the last man. It's not as noticeable on TV, but is very evident when you watch it live. It's not yet clear exactly on what basis they switch but, no doubt, somebody will figure out the criteria and post the analysis.

Our opponents are going to do the analysis but I doubt any of them will post the results of their musings.

[hugonaut]

2 years ago the top prospects on the wing were Stockdale and Larmour. 3 things happened to both.

A string of injuries
Counterproductive experimentation at fullback
A premium on passing ability

Both can be frustratingly selfish, they tend to back themselves and that's what they're good at (so it's not simple to just stop). Lowe's hard work wasn't just on defence, he's been contributing in attack all over too, often first receiver and throwing lots of offloads.

If Larmour can adapt and hit form he'd be better than ever.

For me the jury is still out on Hansen. Connacht have too much history carrying attacking back 3 players who didn't have the overall game to step up. But this is a good test.

Very difficult to overstate the effect of injuries on players like Larmour and Stockdale, who have to have their engine operating at super high revs. For some players, being able to play at 90% fitness is no problem [Cian Healy would probably love to be at 90% fitness, he's always toughing it out], but for others that 10% loss is the entire top end of your game, the thing that makes you special.

It is worth taking a look at this compilation of Stockdale tries for Ireland as a reminder of the absolute freakshow pace and athleticism he operated at when he was at his best: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmTPN5kneKM

The majority of his tries are from way out ... very few tries there that are just dotting down the ball. Under Joe Schmidt there was a big emphasis on giving the other JS ball in space and letting him have a cut because he was the best athlete on the pitch, whether it was England, South Africa, France or New Zealand we were playing.

Both players have to do what loads of other wingers before them have done: round out their games so that they don't lose confidence in themselves when they are not fully fit. Improving the elements of their respective games outside their point-of-difference skills should take pressure off them, because they know that they can still be big contributors to the team throughout the 80 minutes. Then you don't necessarily have the same self-imposed pressure to do something amazing every time you get the ball in your hands. You can feel more confident that you're in the team for a whole host of qualities, not just because you break off big runs or score tries.

[Flash Gordon]

2 years ago the top prospects on the wing were Stockdale and Larmour. 3 things happened to both.

A string of injuries
Counterproductive experimentation at fullback
A premium on passing ability

Both can be frustratingly selfish, they tend to back themselves and that's what they're good at (so it's not simple to just stop). Lowe's hard work wasn't just on defence, he's been contributing in attack all over too, often first receiver and throwing lots of offloads.

If Larmour can adapt and hit form he'd be better than ever.

For me the jury is still out on Hansen. Connacht have too much history carrying attacking back 3 players who didn't have the overall game to step up. But this is a good test.

Very difficult to overstate the effect of injuries on players like Larmour and Stockdale, who have to have their engine operating at super high revs. For some players, being able to play at 90% fitness is no problem [Cian Healy would probably love to be at 90% fitness, he's always toughing it out], but for others that 10% loss is the entire top end of your game, the thing that makes you special.

It is worth taking a look at this compilation of Stockdale tries for Ireland as a reminder of the absolute freakshow pace and athleticism he operated at when he was at his best: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmTPN5kneKM

The majority of his tries are from way out ... very few tries there that are just dotting down the ball. Under Joe Schmidt there was a big emphasis on giving the other JS ball in space and letting him have a cut because he was the best athlete on the pitch, whether it was England, South Africa, France or New Zealand we were playing.

Both players have to do what loads of other wingers before them have done: round out their games so that they don't lose confidence in themselves when they are not fully fit. Improving the elements of their respective games outside their point-of-difference skills should take pressure off them, because they know that they can still be big contributors to the team throughout the 80 minutes. Then you don't necessarily have the same self-imposed pressure to do something amazing every time you get the ball in your hands. You can feel more confident that you're in the team for a whole host of qualities, not just because you break off big runs or score tries.

You are right on injuries. Breaks momentum and hits confidence. If you're a back row player you know you are going to get another shot because it's such an attritional position but if you are a wing or fullback that might not happen if someone comes in an takes your place as Keenan did at Full Back and suddenly your career plan is off track. Rob Kearney talked in the press during the week about how he never saw Keenan coming and how everyone assumed Larmour was the heir apparent and would get 100 caps for Ireland. Now he's trying to scrape back in on the wing.

Which leads to the second point, Stockdale was quite possibly the best attacking wing in the Northern Hemisphere and he was moved to fullback. It's as if wing is a less important position whereas you see the impact wings have had in Ireland over the years - Lowe, Hickie, Earls, Geoghegan, Bowe, Horgan - these are frequently our most impactful and important players. Similarly with Larmour, he played centre in school where Connacht's Peter Sullivan played 12 and covered him defensively. Then he was moved to FB where all his size and defensive frailties were most obviously tested.

Larmour and Stockdale have been outstanding players, i hope the IRFU's management of them doesn't ruin them both.

[joooooe]

2 years ago the top prospects on the wing were Stockdale and Larmour. 3 things happened to both.

A string of injuries
Counterproductive experimentation at fullback
A premium on passing ability

Both can be frustratingly selfish, they tend to back themselves and that's what they're good at (so it's not simple to just stop). Lowe's hard work wasn't just on defence, he's been contributing in attack all over too, often first receiver and throwing lots of offloads.

If Larmour can adapt and hit form he'd be better than ever.

For me the jury is still out on Hansen. Connacht have too much history carrying attacking back 3 players who didn't have the overall game to step up. But this is a good test.

Very difficult to overstate the effect of injuries on players like Larmour and Stockdale, who have to have their engine operating at super high revs. For some players, being able to play at 90% fitness is no problem [Cian Healy would probably love to be at 90% fitness, he's always toughing it out], but for others that 10% loss is the entire top end of your game, the thing that makes you special.

It is worth taking a look at this compilation of Stockdale tries for Ireland as a reminder of the absolute freakshow pace and athleticism he operated at when he was at his best: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmTPN5kneKM

The majority of his tries are from way out ... very few tries there that are just dotting down the ball. Under Joe Schmidt there was a big emphasis on giving the other JS ball in space and letting him have a cut because he was the best athlete on the pitch, whether it was England, South Africa, France or New Zealand we were playing.

Both players have to do what loads of other wingers before them have done: round out their games so that they don't lose confidence in themselves when they are not fully fit. Improving the elements of their respective games outside their point-of-difference skills should take pressure off them, because they know that they can still be big contributors to the team throughout the 80 minutes. Then you don't necessarily have the same self-imposed pressure to do something amazing every time you get the ball in your hands. You can feel more confident that you're in the team for a whole host of qualities, not just because you break off big runs or score tries.

All good points, well made. I wonder if Jordan Larmour should pick up the phone and give Gordon D'Arcy a call. Their career trajectories are very similar.

[Laighin Break]

2 years ago the top prospects on the wing were Stockdale and Larmour. 3 things happened to both.

A string of injuries
Counterproductive experimentation at fullback
A premium on passing ability

Both can be frustratingly selfish, they tend to back themselves and that's what they're good at (so it's not simple to just stop). Lowe's hard work wasn't just on defence, he's been contributing in attack all over too, often first receiver and throwing lots of offloads.

If Larmour can adapt and hit form he'd be better than ever.

For me the jury is still out on Hansen. Connacht have too much history carrying attacking back 3 players who didn't have the overall game to step up. But this is a good test.

For all his faults at fullback, Stockdale showed some lovely passing skills in the Georgia game last year

[Flash Gordon]

2 years ago the top prospects on the wing were Stockdale and Larmour. 3 things happened to both.

A string of injuries
Counterproductive experimentation at fullback
A premium on passing ability

Both can be frustratingly selfish, they tend to back themselves and that's what they're good at (so it's not simple to just stop). Lowe's hard work wasn't just on defence, he's been contributing in attack all over too, often first receiver and throwing lots of offloads.

If Larmour can adapt and hit form he'd be better than ever.

For me the jury is still out on Hansen. Connacht have too much history carrying attacking back 3 players who didn't have the overall game to step up. But this is a good test.

For all his faults at fullback, Stockdale showed some lovely passing skills in the Georgia game last year

I think one of the things that has held back Irish rugby over the years it's probably the focus on what's wrong with players not what they can do brilliantly. Saw that with Connor O'Shea, Niall Woods, Geordan Murphy and there's a danger that the same outlook will be applied to Stockdale, Larmour and Lowe. Of course players need to defend but there are ways of protecting players weaknesses - Lowe moving infield was a case in point and Rog spent a career being protected from tackling by the Munster back row.