Heineken Cup 2021/22

[paddyor]

Outside chance we could get a top 2 seed. Ulster will go to 15 today you’d have to think but they can still Ulster themselves and lose at home to clermont. LAR are away to Glasgow who need a win I think.

[riocard911]

Brilliant play by Baloucoune leads to another try for Lowry. Madigan fails to convert. 13-24 - 63 mins gone.

[Laighin Break]

Brilliant play by Baloucoune leads to another try for Lowry. Madigan fails to convert. 13-24 - 63 mins gone.

Balacoune took out 4 defenders (1 unintentionally, who tripped over him) before laying it off. Brilliant play.
Lowry having another cracking game

[riocard911]

NH under the posts, converted with 10 secs to go - 20-24

[riocard911]

All over - Ulster win. Lowry MOTM.

[mildlyinterested]

Round of 16 as it stands

Racing 92 vs Wasps
Ulster vs Toulouse
La Rochelle vs Connacht
Leinster vs Bordeaux

Exeter Chiefs vs Bristol Bears
Sale Sharks vs Munster
Clermont vs Leicester Tigers
Glasgow Warriors vs Harlequins

[Made Of Ale]

Good result for us as Clermont beat Sale (just about), so we go into the last weekend in fourth place in Pool A.

IF we get a win plus TBP in Bath we will almost certainly stay in fourth place and have home advantage for the second leg of the last 16 match.

We have a decent chance of overtaking La Rochelle. They're only one point ahead with much lower points difference, so if they don't get a BP win away to Glasgow, we'll overtake them.

Chances of catching the other two teams who are both four points ahead of us are unlikely (Ulster v Clermont in poor form) and non-existent (Racing v Northampton).

I think we'll be third. This would mean away matches from the QFs on, unless higher ranked teams get knocked out before that.

[Made Of Ale]

I shoudl add that Toulouse knocking around in positions 5-8 in Pool B is a bit of a worry.
They're likely to finish 5th or 6th, so we have a significant chance of drawing them in the last 16 as things stand.

[Ruckedtobits]

Irish Provinces Team of the week

Purely based on their respective performances and not the quality of opponents, my Irish Provinces team of the week would be:
15. Lowry
14. Wooton
13. Hume
12. McCluskey
11. Lowe
10. Carty
9. Cooney
1. Porter
2. Kelleher
3. Furlong
4. Treadwell
5. Beirne
6. O'Mahony
7. JVdF
8. Vermullion

A great start for all four teams and another weekend to look forward to when others can put their hands up and deepen the Irish Depth Chart further.

Week Two - Ulster v Saints; Munster v Castres; Leicester v Connacht; Leinster N/ A

Certainly not as easy to select an Irish Provinces XV this weekend but this is my selection:

15. Lowry
14. Porch
13. Hume
12. Bundee Aki
11. McElroy
10. Carty
9. Marmion

1. Kilcoyne
2. Herring
3. Moore
4. Dillane
5. Beirne
6. Rea
7. Timoney
8. Vermullion

A couple of strong contenders in Connacht back-row who lost out because of last quarter fatigue-based mistakes. Four Connacht selections despite losing in Welford Road. Ulster's back-row unit probably the key element in their winning against Saints.

Week 3 - Castres v Munster; Connacht v Leicester; Leinster v Monpellier; N'hampton v Ulster

With all four Provinces in action and three highly competitive contests, many players in contention this weekend. However, the selected group augur well for Irish 6 Nations prospects:

15. Lowry
14. Baloucoune
13. Ringrose
12. Aki
11. Earls
10. Burns
9. JG Park

1. Porter
2. Herring
3. Moore
4. Beirne
5. Murray
6. O'Mahony
7. Van der Flyer
8. Coombes

Honourable mentions for Haley, Hume, J O'Brien, R Byrne, Carty, Doak, Kelleher, Burke, Treadwell, Rea, Doris & Conan.

[John23]

I feel a Quickening alla johng in the making with all next weekend's permutations is appropriate.

[ronk]

Leinster put 89 points on the Challenge Cup holders after a huge disruption and losing Ryan before kickoff and Furlong after 5 minutes.

So what if they were weakened. I don't think any of the other provinces would have ripped them apart like that.

[wixfjord]

Looking likely that we'll get either Connacht or Bordeaux in round of 16 imo and I think it's more likely to be Connacht.

I would project that we come third (LAR don't get TBP against Glasgow away (who have something to play for) and Exeter don't beat Montpellier away by a TBP and 24 points more than we beat Bath).

I think Connacht will come 6th in the other group (some combination of Quins, Leicester, Munster, Bristol take top 4 in that group, Toulouse beat Cardiff well at home with a TBP giving them 12 points and a large points difference, Connacht beat Stade away without TBP to put them on 12 and Bordeaux getting a LBP away at Tigers putting them on 9.)

We could also get Toulouse if Connacht lost to Stade and Bordeaux beat Leicester away with a strong points difference, but that's unlikely.

If LAR for example did manage a TBP win away in Glasgow and we came 4th would be more likely to play Toulouse.

[Oldschool]

Looking likely that we'll get either Connacht or Bordeaux in round of 16 imo and I think it's more likely to be Connacht.

I would project that we come third (LAR don't get TBP against Glasgow away (who have something to play for) and Exeter don't beat Montpellier away by a TBP and 24 points more than we beat Bath).

I think Connacht will come 6th in the other group (some combination of Quins, Leicester, Munster, Bristol take top 4 in that group, Toulouse beat Cardiff well at home with a TBP giving them 12 points and a large points difference, Connacht beat Stade away without TBP to put them on 12 and Bordeaux getting a LBP away at Tigers putting them on 9.)

We could also get Toulouse if Connacht lost to Stade and Bordeaux beat Leicester away with a strong points difference, but that's unlikely.

If LAR for example did manage a TBP win away in Glasgow and we came 4th would be more likely to play Toulouse.

Almost certain we'll get Toulouse so.

[riocard911]

Irish Provinces Team of the week

Purely based on their respective performances and not the quality of opponents, my Irish Provinces team of the week would be:
15. Lowry
14. Wooton
13. Hume
12. McCluskey
11. Lowe
10. Carty
9. Cooney
1. Porter
2. Kelleher
3. Furlong
4. Treadwell
5. Beirne
6. O'Mahony
7. JVdF
8. Vermullion

A great start for all four teams and another weekend to look forward to when others can put their hands up and deepen the Irish Depth Chart further.

Week Two - Ulster v Saints; Munster v Castres; Leicester v Connacht; Leinster N/ A

Certainly not as easy to select an Irish Provinces XV this weekend but this is my selection:

15. Lowry
14. Porch
13. Hume
12. Bundee Aki
11. McElroy
10. Carty
9. Marmion

1. Kilcoyne
2. Herring
3. Moore
4. Dillane
5. Beirne
6. Rea
7. Timoney
8. Vermullion

A couple of strong contenders in Connacht back-row who lost out because of last quarter fatigue-based mistakes. Four Connacht selections despite losing in Welford Road. Ulster's back-row unit probably the key element in their winning against Saints.

Week 3 - Castres v Munster; Connacht v Leicester; Leinster v Monpellier; N'hampton v Ulster

With all four Provinces in action and three highly competitive contests, many players in contention this weekend. However, the selected group augur well for Irish 6 Nations prospects:

15. Lowry
14. Baloucoune
13. Ringrose
12. Aki
11. Earls
10. Burns
9. JG Park

1. Porter
2. Herring
3. Moore
4. Beirne
5. Murray
6. O'Mahony
7. Van der Flyer
8. Coombes

Honourable mentions for Haley, Hume, J O'Brien, R Byrne, Carty, Doak, Kelleher, Burke, Treadwell, Rea, Doris & Conan.

Herring ahead of Kelleher? Don't see it meself.....

[ronk]

We could come top of the pool if Racing only get a losing BP (+ other results), which isn't likely.

Mathematically we could still not qualify but that would need bigger adverse scorelines than today.

Hard to see Racing losing short of an outbreak. Ulster should be good at home but it's Clermont. Big one is hoping Glasgow can stop La Rochelle from getting a winning bonus point, or better.

We have to watch Exeter, they play last so they know what point total to chase, it's 23 right now. But Montpellier are at home and as long as they get a strong team back you have to hope that they want to rebound out of pride. They can still get through if Sale, Glasgow or Clermont don't win. It's 2 more games so that's motivating.

Pool B is open because all teams can still qualify if Wasps lose away to Munster. Last kickoff in that pool so they won't know.

Toulouse look safe with Cardiff at home on Friday night.
Quin's and Leicester are both at home so hard for Munster to move up. Bristol won't mind travelling to Scarlets. Going 2nd last really suits Munster as they'll know if they need to chase a score and whether they should.

Assuming we get a bonus point, La Rochelle don't, Racing win. Then we're 3rd unless Ulster lose. We play before Ulster so we won't know.

We're interested in 6th (Connacht) and 7th (Toulouse) of pool B. I
Bordeaux are 5th but are away to Leicester (lose) and Toulouse have Cardiff at home (a win). Connacht play late so they'll know what they need to do and who they'll face. Stade away not quite a rubber as Stade won't know the Munster- Wasps result.

If Bristol lose then Connacht will be able to go for 4th place. Points difference is close with Toulouse (but Toulouse need a bonus to make it relevant). There aren't any good options at our end of Pool A so Connacht might not want to avoid a crack at us or Ulster.

Final is in Marseille and a home country final motivates French sides. Racing and La Rochelle are the only 2 French clubs ahead of us, so in terms of results those are the biggest ones I'll be paying attention to.

[ronk]

2nd or 4th place avoids a trip to Racing (assuming they're top) for the semi. We'd be on track to meet in the final.

4th place would be an away QF against Quins (or whoever comes top).

We're 3rd up next week so we won't know much before we play and I'd expect Quins and Toulouse to win.

[jezzer]

[

Week 3 - Castres v Munster; Connacht v Leicester; Leinster v Monpellier; N'hampton v Ulster

With all four Provinces in action and three highly competitive contests, many players in contention this weekend. However, the selected group augur well for Irish 6 Nations prospects:

15. Lowry
14. Baloucoune
13. Ringrose
12. Aki
11. Earls
10. Burns
9. JG Park

1. Porter
2. Herring
3. Moore
4. Beirne
5. Murray
6. O'Mahony
7. Van der Flyer
8. Coombes

Honourable mentions for Haley, Hume, J O'Brien, R Byrne, Carty, Doak, Kelleher, Burke, Treadwell, Rea, Doris & Conan.

I'd probably have gone:
15 Lowry
14 Larmour
13 Hume
12 Aki
11 Healy
10 Carty
9 JGP

1 Porter
2 Herring
3 Moore
4 Beirne
5 Murray
6 Prendergast
7 VDF
8 Coombes

Tho tbf i didn't see all of the Munster game so I could be selling them short. 500 one-outs turned out not to be my preferred way of spending Friday night.

[Caliphi]

Well, well, well!
We are now tournament favourites with Mr Power. 11/4.
Toulouse 7/2 and Racing at 6/1.
For the deluded, Munster are a snip at 14/1.
Harlequins at 16/1 might be worth a punt.

[Flash Gordon]

Well, well, well!
We are now tournament favourites with Mr Power. 11/4.
Toulouse 7/2 and Racing at 6/1.
For the deluded, Munster are a snip at 14/1.
Harlequins at 16/1 might be worth a punt.

Those Quins odds are ridiculous.

[Degz]

Apparently Toulouse have a huge outbreak of covid and the match with Cardiff is in doubt. If they were to forfeit the game 28-0, they'd almost certainly qualify in seventh spot, meaning if both LAR fail to bonus point win at Glasgow, and Clermont were to win in Ulster, chances are we've got them in the last 16.