Champions Cup 1/4 Final: Exeter V Leinster

[Theleinsterlad]

“I went against Leinster in the PRO14 final (against Munster), which was absolutely crazy, so I am going to go – in a really, really close game – with Leinster getting it done.” - BOD

Now I’m worried

[JB1973]

Reviewing how Exeter score and beat teams and acknowledging that the referee is very vigilant on particular offences such as offside by chasers and obstruction in lineouts, what game plan can Leinster adopt to beat Exeter on this occasion?

The last time we met, we had a significantly more defensively experienced back three, Rob K, Fergus & Isa, but possible a lesser threat in try scoring and broken field attacking. Our mid-field was possibly a bigger attacking threat then than now and Slade and their out-half Simmonds have grown in their attacking profile. Our half-backs are both playing very well and their scrum-half Maunder is not the threat of his predecessor.

IMO, our front row is stronger than it was. Their second-row has improved marketedly and our back-row could be the same as we fielded in the second half four years ago and they dominated the final quarter. Rhys, Josh & Jack will have good memories of that encounter although none of them will remember it as easy. Vermilion will be the 'wild card' in their back-row.

A tough ask but a game that I believe will be won on the training pitch, by the Coaches who get their game plan best tailored to the occasion. Expect a lot of nuances to be evident. Targeting of individuals on both sides for defensive weaknesses. Ploys to deprive opposition attacking threats of opportunities - us keeping Hogg and Slade starved of possession, them trying to target Lowe, Henshaw and Larmour in different ways.

The obvious strengths are the efficiency of their pack inside our 22 in converting possession into tries. The multi-phase high tempo attacks off Leinster mid-field line outs and scrums. These are the hallmarks of these two very competent sides. But what will be the key differences which produce the winners?

Nothing simple in trying to predict this game. Exeter don't yet have a front-row combination to dominate like Sarries did. Nor do they have a pair of half-backs who can torture an opposition back three like Sarries did. But Exeter have probably got a better maul and a more varied line-out threat than their predecessors as English champions. However, they don't have any Vunipolas nor an Itoje.

Leinster have been preparing for a game like this since last October. I'm confident that come Saturday we'll see all the evidence of that preparation in what will be a great contest.

Exeter likely back 3 is really fast and each of them are very good at beating people in a one on one situation especially from broken play and they will fancy themselves to cause real trouble if they get ball in hand .In saying that all 3 including the heavily hyped hogg are not especially great under the high ball and with a kicker of sexton's quality leinster can really target them in that aspect of the game

Exeter are a real "team" their sum is greater than their individual parts and their coaches strike me as being very diligent and well prepared and they have been unusually bullish talking themselves up this week. I'm wondering if that is to try and offset their poor record vs you guys? and get rid of any possible inferiority complex.
Baxter doesn't seem one for mind games though so who knows

I find this game one of the most interesting match ups of the season, will be fascinating to see how it all unfolds

[Flash Gordon]

Reviewing how Exeter score and beat teams and acknowledging that the referee is very vigilant on particular offences such as offside by chasers and obstruction in lineouts, what game plan can Leinster adopt to beat Exeter on this occasion?

The last time we met, we had a significantly more defensively experienced back three, Rob K, Fergus & Isa, but possible a lesser threat in try scoring and broken field attacking. Our mid-field was possibly a bigger attacking threat then than now and Slade and their out-half Simmonds have grown in their attacking profile. Our half-backs are both playing very well and their scrum-half Maunder is not the threat of his predecessor.

IMO, our front row is stronger than it was. Their second-row has improved marketedly and our back-row could be the same as we fielded in the second half four years ago and they dominated the final quarter. Rhys, Josh & Jack will have good memories of that encounter although none of them will remember it as easy. Vermilion will be the 'wild card' in their back-row.

A tough ask but a game that I believe will be won on the training pitch, by the Coaches who get their game plan best tailored to the occasion. Expect a lot of nuances to be evident. Targeting of individuals on both sides for defensive weaknesses. Ploys to deprive opposition attacking threats of opportunities - us keeping Hogg and Slade starved of possession, them trying to target Lowe, Henshaw and Larmour in different ways.

The obvious strengths are the efficiency of their pack inside our 22 in converting possession into tries. The multi-phase high tempo attacks off Leinster mid-field line outs and scrums. These are the hallmarks of these two very competent sides. But what will be the key differences which produce the winners?

Nothing simple in trying to predict this game. Exeter don't yet have a front-row combination to dominate like Sarries did. Nor do they have a pair of half-backs who can torture an opposition back three like Sarries did. But Exeter have probably got a better maul and a more varied line-out threat than their predecessors as English champions. However, they don't have any Vunipolas nor an Itoje.

Leinster have been preparing for a game like this since last October. I'm confident that come Saturday we'll see all the evidence of that preparation in what will be a great contest.

Exeter likely back 3 is really fast and each of them are very good at beating people in a one on one situation especially from broken play and they will fancy themselves to cause real trouble if they get ball in hand .In saying that all 3 including the heavily hyped hogg are not especially great under the high ball and with a kicker of sexton's quality leinster can really target them in that aspect of the game

Exeter are a real "team" their sum is greater than their individual parts and their coaches strike me as being very diligent and well prepared and they have been unusually bullish talking themselves up this week. I'm wondering if that is to try and offset their poor record vs you guys? and get rid of any possible inferiority complex.
Baxter doesn't seem one for mind games though so who knows

I find this game one of the most interesting match ups of the season, will be fascinating to see how it all unfolds

It will, they are a team and a club i really admire. I'm not sure I could watch them week in week out but they are a proper rugby club with a real culture. Was delighted to see them beat the Paris Globetrotters last year.

[backrower8]

Yeah the drop off at 9 from White to Maunder does look like and area we have an advantage.

I think generally our backline has an edge, particularly with Nowell & Cuthbert out.

One thing their backline does really well though is use swing passes out the back to a winger/Hogg coming round. Will be a defensive test for ROL and our wingers (which is why I'd start DK).

Both O'Flaherty and Woodburn may not be household names, but have the pace to score tries one on one.

I'm interested to see who we put in as bench LH. With Thomas Francis benching for Exeter, I'd prefer Dooley there than Byrne personally.

+1

[alanair]

“I went against Leinster in the PRO14 final (against Munster), which was absolutely crazy, so I am going to go – in a really, really close game – with Leinster getting it done.” - BOD

Now I’m worried

Id be more worried if Thornley tipped us.... he's invariably been wrong in any predictions he has made of late

[riocard911]

Darce in today's IT doesn't seem to think we'll be able to turn these fellas over without Ringer and JR...

But with this guy back @3/18

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNPX0k82ygg

we might!!!!

[fourthirtythree]

I do think that Baxter is playing mind games, and nothing wrong with that, he led with nothing to see here over the injuries which I suspect he could not confidently say.

He did say when we last met something to the effect that they had to look at how they underperformed against us. I think he implied that we carried a mystique beyond what we deserved, just as we do for Munster (head went last we met) and how we treated Sarries (Leo called us spooked) and Ireland did England even when other teams had already found them out (which is a big part of why I'm delighted we beat England to get both monkeys off our backs). I'm confident that they will not go into the match with any mental baggage. They were definitely the best team in Europe last year so a great opportunity to get back on the horse.

[LeinsterLeader]

T'would seem aul Neil's not giving us much of a chance on Saturday. Can't read the article but I think the headline says it all......

https://www.independent.ie/sport/rugby/ ... 86844.html`

"The pitiful standard of the PRO14 means Leinster need a miracle against Chiefs -
Neil Francis"

[mildlyinterested]

T'would seem aul Neil's not giving us much of a chance on Saturday. Can't read the article but I think the headline says it all......

https://www.independent.ie/sport/rugby/ ... 86844.html`

"The pitiful standard of the PRO14 means Leinster need a miracle against Chiefs -
Neil Francis"

Leinster have not played a decent side since they lost to Saracens last September. They were caught cold that day and the limits of the PRO14 left them woefully ill-prepared to counter what Saracens threw at them. The same is going to happen on Saturday – and it will take somewhere between a fishes and the loaves up to a Lazarus-sized miracle to overcome these Exeter Chiefs.

[cormac]

The one big difference between this weekend and last September against Saracens is that the majority of our players have just been involved in the 6N. That's always been our best preparation for playing in quarter finals at this stage of the season.

[LeinsterLeader]

T'would seem aul Neil's not giving us much of a chance on Saturday. Can't read the article but I think the headline says it all......

https://www.independent.ie/sport/rugby/ ... 86844.html`

"The pitiful standard of the PRO14 means Leinster need a miracle against Chiefs -
Neil Francis"

Leinster have not played a decent side since they lost to Saracens last September. They were caught cold that day and the limits of the PRO14 left them woefully ill-prepared to counter what Saracens threw at them. The same is going to happen on Saturday – and it will take somewhere between a fishes and the loaves up to a Lazarus-sized miracle to overcome these Exeter Chiefs.

Ah, I wouldn't have thought so. Look I'm not confident, I think the Chiefs are an excellent side but I don't think we're in Miracle territory in order to get a win. Maybe I'm wrong and I'm overrating Leinster but I think We're a good side too.

[mildlyinterested]

The one big difference between this weekend and last September against Saracens is that the majority of our players have just been involved in the 6N. That's always been our best preparation for playing in quarter finals at this stage of the season.

yep thankfully.. otherwise i'd fear he'd be correct.

still a big ask this weekend without Ryan & Ringer.

[mildlyinterested]

T'would seem aul Neil's not giving us much of a chance on Saturday. Can't read the article but I think the headline says it all......

https://www.independent.ie/sport/rugby/ ... 86844.html`

"The pitiful standard of the PRO14 means Leinster need a miracle against Chiefs -
Neil Francis"

Leinster have not played a decent side since they lost to Saracens last September. They were caught cold that day and the limits of the PRO14 left them woefully ill-prepared to counter what Saracens threw at them. The same is going to happen on Saturday – and it will take somewhere between a fishes and the loaves up to a Lazarus-sized miracle to overcome these Exeter Chiefs.

Ah, I wouldn't have thought so. Look I'm not confident, I think the Chiefs are an excellent side but I don't think we're in Miracle territory in order to get a win. Maybe I'm wrong and I'm overrating Leinster but I think We're a good side too.

my confidence levels will be increased if we have JGP on the bench tomorrow, if not we will be asking Luke to go the full 80.

still think our european season ends this saturday if we don't have Ryan on the field.

[erskinechilders]

So disappointing not to have some of our best players available. IF we get through on Sat I would be very hopeful. Imagine the Lions mania if we had Doris v Simmonds, Ryan v Gray/ Hill and Ringrose v Slade!!! I think our injuries will catch up with us unfortunately.

[Leinster Lout]

I wonder what Leo is thinking re their lineout and consequently their maul - do we challenge or let them set on the maul? This is obviously their key strength but they have also been mixing it up lately - feigning a long set up and then releasing Sam Simmons or Cowan Dickie either side.

Ryan is going to be sorely missed in that department so without him I am not sure we have much capability to steal their lineouts.

I would be wary of starting Lowe - they also seem to like playing their backs well behind the gainline with a view to playing heads up, waiting for gaps to appear by players like Lowe shooting up.

Unfortunately for us they had a very recent blip at the start v Lyon but will have gained a different type of confidence from that.

But as people said, they'll be as afraid of us. But it's gonna need to be a stormer from 1-23.

[Theleinsterlad]

Think we should start doing a thread on the different emotional stages of the average Leinster fan

1st: Utter belief -we are great we are going to win
2nd: the shadows - oooh the opposition are world beaters I don’t know about this
3rd: darkness descends - omg Leinster are sh!t we play in a sh!t league and we are sh!t
4th: hell has come - our whole fing team is down injured and the players coming up haven’t a clue we’re done for
5th: match day - wow actually we ain’t that bad a team after all

[Leinster Lout]

So disappointing not to have some of our best players available. IF we get through on Sat I would be very hopeful. Imagine the Lions mania if we had Doris v Simmonds, Ryan v Gray/ Hill and Ringrose v Slade!!! I think our injuries will catch up with us unfortunately.

I actually think Conan is better than Doris but I seem to be in the minority on that one?

[Theleinsterlad]

So disappointing not to have some of our best players available. IF we get through on Sat I would be very hopeful. Imagine the Lions mania if we had Doris v Simmonds, Ryan v Gray/ Hill and Ringrose v Slade!!! I think our injuries will catch up with us unfortunately.

I actually think Conan is better than Doris but I seem to be in the minority on that one?

Don’t think you are Doris and Conan offer different types of game play but both are massive 8’s and I would say on a par with each other. Problem for both is they get injured too much

[LeinsterLeader]

Think we should start doing a thread on the different emotional stages of the average Leinster fan

1st: Utter belief -we are great we are going to win
2nd: the shadows - oooh the opposition are world beaters I don’t know about this
3rd: darkness descends - omg Leinster are sh!t we play in a sh!t league and we are sh!t
4th: hell has come - our whole fing team is down injured and the players coming up haven’t a clue we’re done for
5th: match day - wow actually we ain’t that bad a team after all

Put me down for one of each

[erskinechilders]

If both players were on top form I think Doris has more at the top end of the club game and at international level. But Conan is playing extremely well at the moment. If memory serves me correct he was outstanding the last time we played at Sandy Park. Really got involved in the nitty-gritty side of the game just at a point where people were questioning whether he had that in him. I hope he continues his excellent run of form!