Champions Cup 1/4 Final: Exeter V Leinster

[Leinster Lout]

Looks like another weekend off as Prince Phillip has died

Would they actually?!

Wouldnt have thought West Country folk would be so minded (unless they dont get a say?)

[OTT]

Interesting that HOS is picked ahead of JGP.

JGP is injured.

Let's hope HOS can channel the spirit of Duncan Williams from a couple of seasons ago.

Cometh the hour ....... cometh the man! (we hope )

Unfortunately we wouldn’t be able to get in any Munster fans to shout abuse at him though...eh I mean encouragement

[Dave Cahill]

Looks like another weekend off as Prince Phillip has died

Would they actually?!

Wouldnt have thought West Country folk would be so minded (unless they dont get a say?)

Liverpool had to postpone their game the day after Diana died and that would be quite a republican city and she was no longer a member of the royal family

[LeRouxIsPHat]

I’m confident anyway. I’d take our players over theirs by about two to one and I think the rest last week will have done us the world of good. I was a bit worried about our second rows before the Munster game but they were excellent and it’ll be great to have Baird’s impact off the bench. If they can put in another big performance then I think we’ll win.

As I said yesterday we need to be really disciplined otherwise they’ll kick the corners and score off mauls, and I reckon we’re well set up to deal with their runners around the 13 channel because of the centres we’ve got and Luke covering.

I’m sure it’ll be a tight game but I’d love to see us use our back three more than we usually do, I expect a big game from J-Lo but who knows what his confidence levels are really like.

I expected the selection this week but anyone any idea why Ed Byrne is favoured so much over Dooley? I rate Ed but I don’t really get it.

[Twist]

I find it hard not to look at our 23 and think of the players we're missing.

I mean, to win away and knock out the European Champions without; James Ryan, Ringrose, Doris, Connors, Penny as well as the more long term injured like Leavy and Deegan is a very big ask.

On their side, I'm surprised that the Simmondses are both there. I thought they'd have to go to their backup 10.

[Twist]

Looks like another weekend off as Prince Phillip has died

Stay on topic or you will have people giving out, maybe move this to the Prince Philip thread.

How am I only finding out now about the Prince Phillip thread?? Harry shall feel my online wrath.....

[Lock9541]

Looks like another weekend off as Prince Phillip has died

Hardly. If they do cancel it then the victory should go to us.

[wixfjord]

Thomas Francis starting is interesting. He's usually a bencher. Clearly they want a bit of beef to take on our front row.

That might be better for Byrne coming in.

On your point LRIP, I would imagine it's Byrne's carrying/footwork impact off the bench that swings it for him. But I agree I see Dooley as a far better scrummager and not far behind on the carrying piece.

[wixfjord]

I can't wait to see Baird come in btw.

Re-watched the Sarries game there last night (for my sins) and he was absolutely ridiculous. Went proper beast mode, ripping balls, making breaks and hitting hard.

Could be a gamechanger.

[kendo90]

Thomas Francis starting is interesting. He's usually a bencher. Clearly they want a bit of beef to take on our front row.

That might be better for Byrne coming in.

On your point LRIP, I would imagine it's Byrne's carrying/footwork impact off the bench that swings it for him. But I agree I see Dooley as a far better scrummager and not far behind on the carrying piece.

There was a time where Healy seemed to struggle with the barrel chested Francis. I wonder if that’s their thinking.
He certainly offers more heft and Williams did get pinged a few times last week.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[LeinsterLeader]

I can't wait to see Baird come in btw.

Re-watched the Sarries game there last night (for my sins) and he was absolutely ridiculous. Went proper beast mode, ripping balls, making breaks and hitting hard.

Could be a gamechanger.

This all day!

If its still a game when he comes in he could be the difference

[wixfjord]

Should be fascinating to see how both sides approach in attack.

Moon & Francis mobility is a wee bit suspect, and their back 5 are massive, but besides Simmons not hugely quick. So will be interesting to see if we can try to isolate some of their larger forwards and get the likes of Conan, Kelleher and VDF running at them.

I'd say there'll be quite a bit of Larmour/Lowe/Keenan coming inside on the angle and Luke looking for breaks too.

Berch made an interesting point on the42 podcast about Exeter possibly attacking us close to the ruck considering their size and our defensive system too.

[Flash Gordon]

Looks like another weekend off as Prince Phillip has died

Would they actually?!

Wouldnt have thought West Country folk would be so minded (unless they dont get a say?)

Liverpool had to postpone their game the day after Diana died and that would be quite a republican city and she was no longer a member of the royal family

It's a European competition and we don't have a window to replay it. If they want to do their empire thing it's nothing to do with European rugby in my view. The hysteria around Diana was off the wall by the way.

[Ruckedtobits]

I remember thinking who ever won the match between ourselves and Saracens would win the competition last season. Saracens proved me wrong (wrong again ) but I still think (maybe biasedly) if we had not have had our Waterloo moment we would have continued to improve and peaked for the final and won it. It’s all immaterial now and Exeter were the best team in Europe last season because they won the Cup.

Again, I think whoever wins this game will end up going on and winning the whole thing (I can’t change bad habits ).

The reason we lost against Saracens can be boxed off to getting done repeatedly at scrum time and our line out failing when it mattered. The line out in our biggest games can be our Achilles heel but the scrum performance that day was something I never expected from us. Saracens did a Joe Schmidt on us, they saw an area where we thought we were very good and kept pounding at it and it killed us.

With that knowledge can we ever be so bad again in that area, will our players just settle for it and allow the other team to dictate how it goes down again. I just can’t think we will let another pack beat us like that again. Look back at the posts from back then Healy, Dev and Conan (who amazingly look like the only 3 lads in the pack who started against Saracens that will get the start on Saturday) were all written off, their rugby obituaries were written. That was just a little over 6 months ago, not that long ago for players to forget the pain. Beaten off the park by the English. I don’t think McBryde and his forwards are going to let Exeter’s pack get any sort of start on us like they allowed Saracens to get. Also our pack are game ready, they have a lot of hard minutes under their belt, they won’t be going into the game undercooked like against Saracens. Dev, Fards/ Baird, Healy, Kelleher, Porter/Furlong, Rhys, Josh all are battle hardened, Jack has looked right up to speed in his few games back. Exeter have a great pack but so do we and they need to right a wrong still in this competition. Why don’t we go after their strength.

Our backline I'm more concerned about because they just have not played that much rugby together, Johnny and Luke not much, the centres not much and the back 3 not much. All players I don’t have any worries about individually but all players who just have not had a chance to play together consistently. On saying that we will have had two more Stusdays with everyone on board since we last played which we are told are harder than match conditions and where decision making is pushed to its limit so that can only stand to us.

Exeter are brilliant in my opinion but so are we. We beat them in Sandy Park with full stands of their great fans cheering them on only a couple of seasons ago and we can do it again now in an empty stadium. Maybe they will beat us but thinking we have a fair chance against such a good team is a lucky place to be in as a fan, I’ve seen some talk about how this game will define this group of players, couldn’t disagree more, any season we think we have a good chance to win this competition defines the group imo, that’s the belief we have in the group and that is all we can expect as fans, a loss will be devastating but it won’t define us because we will go after another cup next season because that is what our team does.

Anyway enough with my negativity, Leinster to win by 5.

Good thoughful piece of analysis.

[Flash Gordon]

some interesting stats:

Exeter Chiefs and Leinster Rugby have faced each other four times already in the Heineken Champions Cup, with the Irish side winning all those games (pool stages 2012/13 and 2017/18).

Exeter Chiefs are unbeaten in their last 11 completed games in the Heineken Champions Cup (W10 D1), only four other teams had longer unbeaten runs in the competition (Leinster, Munster, Saracens and Toulouse).

Exeter have won their last eight home games in the Heineken Champions Cup, their longest winning run at home in European competitions (across both the Heineken Champions Cup and Challenge Cup).

Leinster have won 14 of their last 16 completed games in the Heineken Champions Cup (L2), the two defeats in that span coming against teams from the Premiership however (both Saracens).

Leinster have won each of their last six away games in the Heineken Champions Cup, but no team has ever won seven games on the road in a row in the competition; they have won each of their last five away games to Premiership teams, last losing there against Wasps in January 2016 (10-51), their heaviest defeat in the competition.

Exeter have the best ruck success rate (98%) of any side in the Heineken Champions Cup this season, winning 184/187 attacking rucks so far.
Defending champions, Exeter, have averaged more points (45) and tries (6.5) per game than any other side in the Heineken Champions Cup this season; also averaging the most time in possession per match (20m 8s).

Dave Kearney has averaged three clean breaks per 80 minutes in the Heineken Champions Cup this season, of players still in the competition only Kurtley Beale (3.7) has a better rate.

Johnny Sexton needs three more points to reach 700 in the Heineken Champions Cup, he’d be the fourth player to reach this milestone (Ronan O’Gara 1,365, Stephen Jones 869, Owen Farrell 794).

Exeter’s Sam Simmonds has won more turnovers (6) than anyone else in the Heineken Champions Cup this season, he has also completed 18/18 tackles and averaged six metres gained per carry, the fourth best rate by a forward (14+ carries).

Since Christmas I think Exeter have won 7 and lost 5 games. That's not the form of the best team in Europe. They will be tough for sure and their lads will be up for it big time but this is a game we shouldn't fear in my opinion and our lads have a massive point to prove after last season's exit.

[riocard911]

Would they actually?!

Wouldnt have thought West Country folk would be so minded (unless they dont get a say?)

Liverpool had to postpone their game the day after Diana died and that would be quite a republican city and she was no longer a member of the royal family

It's a European competition and we don't have a window to replay it. If they want to do their empire thing it's nothing to do with European rugby in my view. The hysteria around Diana was off the wall by the way.

+1

[mildlyinterested]

Not starting Dave a big mistake IMO.

[bluemagic]

Not starting Dave a big mistake IMO.

Agreed, will be very worried about Lowe's defence for the entirety of this game. Exeter will have a clear target on his back now.

[Blue not red blood]

Sunday Times Headline

Lowe and Behold the Magic

[OTT]

I’m picturing Lowe running through Olly Woodburn, it’s a beautiful sight