Champions Cup 1/4 Final: Exeter V Leinster

[mildlyinterested]

given how europe ended last season and the quality of opposition faced this season, I think it's quite understandable to be not optimistic going into this game against the defending champions, away from home, missing some key players.

[mildlyinterested]

some interesting stats:

Exeter Chiefs and Leinster Rugby have faced each other four times already in the Heineken Champions Cup, with the Irish side winning all those games (pool stages 2012/13 and 2017/18).

Exeter Chiefs are unbeaten in their last 11 completed games in the Heineken Champions Cup (W10 D1), only four other teams had longer unbeaten runs in the competition (Leinster, Munster, Saracens and Toulouse).

Exeter have won their last eight home games in the Heineken Champions Cup, their longest winning run at home in European competitions (across both the Heineken Champions Cup and Challenge Cup).

Leinster have won 14 of their last 16 completed games in the Heineken Champions Cup (L2), the two defeats in that span coming against teams from the Premiership however (both Saracens).

Leinster have won each of their last six away games in the Heineken Champions Cup, but no team has ever won seven games on the road in a row in the competition; they have won each of their last five away games to Premiership teams, last losing there against Wasps in January 2016 (10-51), their heaviest defeat in the competition.

Exeter have the best ruck success rate (98%) of any side in the Heineken Champions Cup this season, winning 184/187 attacking rucks so far.
Defending champions, Exeter, have averaged more points (45) and tries (6.5) per game than any other side in the Heineken Champions Cup this season; also averaging the most time in possession per match (20m 8s).

Dave Kearney has averaged three clean breaks per 80 minutes in the Heineken Champions Cup this season, of players still in the competition only Kurtley Beale (3.7) has a better rate.

Johnny Sexton needs three more points to reach 700 in the Heineken Champions Cup, he’d be the fourth player to reach this milestone (Ronan O’Gara 1,365, Stephen Jones 869, Owen Farrell 794).

Exeter’s Sam Simmonds has won more turnovers (6) than anyone else in the Heineken Champions Cup this season, he has also completed 18/18 tackles and averaged six metres gained per carry, the fourth best rate by a forward (14+ carries).

[LeinsterLeader]

I don't know about you guys but when I see stats like that it just heightens my anxiety regardless of what the stats say.

I see their good stats and I go 'wow, that's impressive'

I see our good stats and I go 'well, we're never gonna keep that up'

[Dexter]

Funny to see the trajectory over the years over our two KO opponents. We were 0 from 4 against Toulon but positive and optimistic about a victory, we're 4 from 4 against Exeter and it's very different.
Exeter have obviously improved since we played them last, when they gave us a hell of a scare in the Aviva.

I'm nervous.

[OTT]

I remember thinking who ever won the match between ourselves and Saracens would win the competition last season. Saracens proved me wrong (wrong again ) but I still think (maybe biasedly) if we had not have had our Waterloo moment we would have continued to improve and peaked for the final and won it. It’s all immaterial now and Exeter were the best team in Europe last season because they won the Cup.

Again, I think whoever wins this game will end up going on and winning the whole thing (I can’t change bad habits ).

The reason we lost against Saracens can be boxed off to getting done repeatedly at scrum time and our line out failing when it mattered. The line out in our biggest games can be our Achilles heel but the scrum performance that day was something I never expected from us. Saracens did a Joe Schmidt on us, they saw an area where we thought we were very good and kept pounding at it and it killed us.

With that knowledge can we ever be so bad again in that area, will our players just settle for it and allow the other team to dictate how it goes down again. I just can’t think we will let another pack beat us like that again. Look back at the posts from back then Healy, Dev and Conan (who amazingly look like the only 3 lads in the pack who started against Saracens that will get the start on Saturday) were all written off, their rugby obituaries were written. That was just a little over 6 months ago, not that long ago for players to forget the pain. Beaten off the park by the English. I don’t think McBryde and his forwards are going to let Exeter’s pack get any sort of start on us like they allowed Saracens to get. Also our pack are game ready, they have a lot of hard minutes under their belt, they won’t be going into the game undercooked like against Saracens. Dev, Fards/ Baird, Healy, Kelleher, Porter/Furlong, Rhys, Josh all are battle hardened, Jack has looked right up to speed in his few games back. Exeter have a great pack but so do we and they need to right a wrong still in this competition. Why don’t we go after their strength.

Our backline I'm more concerned about because they just have not played that much rugby together, Johnny and Luke not much, the centres not much and the back 3 not much. All players I don’t have any worries about individually but all players who just have not had a chance to play together consistently. On saying that we will have had two more Stusdays with everyone on board since we last played which we are told are harder than match conditions and where decision making is pushed to its limit so that can only stand to us.

Exeter are brilliant in my opinion but so are we. We beat them in Sandy Park with full stands of their great fans cheering them on only a couple of seasons ago and we can do it again now in an empty stadium. Maybe they will beat us but thinking we have a fair chance against such a good team is a lucky place to be in as a fan, I’ve seen some talk about how this game will define this group of players, couldn’t disagree more, any season we think we have a good chance to win this competition defines the group imo, that’s the belief we have in the group and that is all we can expect as fans, a loss will be devastating but it won’t define us because we will go after another cup next season because that is what our team does.

Anyway enough with my negativity, Leinster to win by 5.

[wixfjord]

I'm not hugely worried about our cohesion and lack of game time together tbh.

We've had the internationals back for three full training weeks now, we've pretty much known the team that will start for two weeks and I've huge faith in our coaching team to have lads absolutely humming.

[Jonny tight lips]

My mind during various webex calls: is it 12 yet, is it 12 yet.

[mildlyinterested]

JGP out, no Ryan etc.

Advantage Exeter.

[mildlyinterested]

Leinster Rugby (caps in brackets):

15. Hugo Keenan (25)
14. Jordan Larmour (55)
13. Rory O’Loughlin (80)
12. Robbie Henshaw (54)
11. James Lowe (49)
10. Johnny Sexton (172) CAPTAIN
9. Luke McGrath (145)
1. Cian Healy (227)
2. Rónan Kelleher (20)
3. Tadhg Furlong (110)
4. Scott Fardy (75)
5. Devin Toner (262)
6. Rhys Ruddock (186)
7. Josh van der Flier (92)
8. Jack Conan (101)

16. James Tracy (125)
17. Ed Byrne (65)
18. Andrew Porter (72)
19. Ross Molony (112)
20. Ryan Baird (20)
21. Hugh O’Sullivan (28)
22. Ross Byrne (98)
23. Dave Kearney (165)

[Jonny tight lips]

EXETER CHIEFS SIDE TO FACE LEINSTER RUGBY

15 Stuart Hogg
14 Olly Woodburn
13 Henry Slade
12 Ollie Devoto
11 Tom O’Flaherty
10 Joe Simmonds
9 Jack Maunder
1 Ben Moon
2 Luke Cowan-Dickie
3 Tomas Francis
4 Jonny Gray
5 Jonny Hill
6 Dave Ewers
7 Jacques Vermeulen
8 Sam Simmonds

16 Jack Yeandle
17 Alec Hepburn
18 Harry Williams
19 Sam Skinner
20 Jannes Kirsten
21 Stu Townsend
22 Harvey Skinner
23 Ian Whitten

[mildlyinterested]

EXETER CHIEFS SIDE TO FACE LEINSTER RUGBY

15 Stuart Hogg
14 Olly Woodburn
13 Henry Slade
12 Ollie Devoto
11 Tom O’Flaherty
10 Joe Simmonds
9 Jack Maunder
1 Ben Moon
2 Luke Cowan-Dickie
3 Tomas Francis
4 Jonny Gray
5 Jonny Hill
6 Dave Ewers
7 Jacques Vermeulen
8 Sam Simmonds

16 Jack Yeandle
17 Alec Hepburn
18 Harry Williams
19 Sam Skinner
20 Jannes Kirsten
21 Stu Townsend
22 Harvey Skinner
23 Ian Whitten

are they missing any 1st choice players?

[Lock9541]

Interesting that HOS is picked ahead of JGP.

[wixfjord]

As expected!

Bench impact is really impacted by lack of JGP and of course the other absentees.

But overall, a very strong 23 with buckets of experience that should have no issue going to an empty Sandy Park.

[LeinsterLeader]

are they missing any 1st choice players?

Nowell, Cutbert ? There they only one's I can think of

[mildlyinterested]

Interesting that HOS is picked ahead of JGP.

JGP is injured.

[Dave Cahill]

Looks like another weekend off as Prince Phillip has died

[LeinsterLeader]

Interesting that HOS is picked ahead of JGP.

JGP is injured.

Let's hope HOS can channel the spirit of Duncan Williams from a couple of seasons ago.

Cometh the hour ....... cometh the man! (we hope )

[mildlyinterested]

lets hope Luke is ready to go for the full 80

[Jonny tight lips]

Looks like another weekend off as Prince Phillip has died

Stay on topic or you will have people giving out, maybe move this to the Prince Philip thread.

[Leinster Lout]

EXETER CHIEFS SIDE TO FACE LEINSTER RUGBY

15 Stuart Hogg
14 Olly Woodburn
13 Henry Slade
12 Ollie Devoto
11 Tom O’Flaherty
10 Joe Simmonds
9 Jack Maunder
1 Ben Moon
2 Luke Cowan-Dickie
3 Tomas Francis
4 Jonny Gray
5 Jonny Hill
6 Dave Ewers
7 Jacques Vermeulen
8 Sam Simmonds

16 Jack Yeandle
17 Alec Hepburn
18 Harry Williams
19 Sam Skinner
20 Jannes Kirsten
21 Stu Townsend
22 Harvey Skinner
23 Ian Whitten

are they missing any 1st choice players?

Nowell and Cuthbert both out long term. Nowell would certainly start, not sure about Cuthbert. I would have thought their benched props would be considered their better pair.