Champions Cup 1/4 Final: Exeter V Leinster

[JB1973]

Exeter are not as good as they were last year , their line out drive seems to be less effective and their back play has dropped off a level from last year, the ex osprey player O’Flaherty looked a bit of a weak link in defence and their 9 is imo pretty average at this level

As for their strengths they do have home advantage, they are used to winning big knock out games, have a very pacy back 3 their pick and drive game especially from close out is exceptional and their front 5 are not only big units but they all are good with ball in hand to

Conan vs Simmons is a really interesting clash for me two of the form number 8's in European rugby and both still in with a shout for lions selections

I'll wait and see the teams before I make a call as to who I think will win but I will be cheering you guys on,

[wixfjord]

Yeah the drop off at 9 from White to Maunder does look like and area we have an advantage.

I think generally our backline has an edge, particularly with Nowell & Cuthbert out.

One thing their backline does really well though is use swing passes out the back to a winger/Hogg coming round. Will be a defensive test for ROL and our wingers (which is why I'd start DK).

Both O'Flaherty and Woodburn may not be household names, but have the pace to score tries one on one.

I'm interested to see who we put in as bench LH. With Thomas Francis benching for Exeter, I'd prefer Dooley there than Byrne personally.

[wixfjord]

Without any knowledge of his individual situation, if I were a betting man I'd say James Ryan might make an appearance at the weekend. Obviously we're being careful, but he can't be too far off if he's holding tackle bags.

[Flash Gordon]

Am slightly worried abot Ryan and Doris not being available.

But JGP not being available could turn out to be a much bigger issue.

If McGrath goes down after 10 minutes we're done for.

Obviously they are losses but we have decent international class deputies. Not sure that's the case at 13. In Larmour and Lowe we have 2 of the best attacking wings in Europe but the service to the wings in the Munster game was awful and we butchered a couple of scores because of that.

[fourthirtythree]

Thought Larmour butchered them on his own to be honest. Didn't keep his depth.

[Flash Gordon]

Thought Larmour butchered them on his own to be honest. Didn't keep his depth.

Hmm not sure about that to be honest. One of the passes was too high!

[wixfjord]

Am slightly worried abot Ryan and Doris not being available.

But JGP not being available could turn out to be a much bigger issue.

If McGrath goes down after 10 minutes we're done for.

Obviously they are losses but we have decent international class deputies. Not sure that's the case at 13. In Larmour and Lowe we have 2 of the best attacking wings in Europe but the service to the wings in the Munster game was awful and we butchered a couple of scores because of that.

I think that's harsh on ROL tbh. Larmour definitely overran one and possibly the other too.

[mildlyinterested]

neither of them covered themselves in much glory.. first time playing together, hopefully won't happen again.

[Flash Gordon]

neither of them covered themselves in much glory.. first time playing together, hopefully won't happen again.

It'll be interesting to see whether the coaches go for the same line up vs Toulon. They obviously had a rotation plan for the 3 games. There's the option to play Frawley at 12 and Robbie at 13 I guess. Be a huge physical test for Frawley though and Robbie is playing Lions form at 12.

[mildlyinterested]

neither of them covered themselves in much glory.. first time playing together, hopefully won't happen again.

It'll be interesting to see whether the coaches go for the same line up vs Toulon. They obviously had a rotation plan for the 3 games. There's the option to play Frawley at 12 and Robbie at 13 I guess. Be a huge physical test for Frawley though and Robbie is playing Lions form at 12.

afaik Frawley has been unavailable due to a shoulder issue and continues to be.

[Flash Gordon]

neither of them covered themselves in much glory.. first time playing together, hopefully won't happen again.

It'll be interesting to see whether the coaches go for the same line up vs Toulon. They obviously had a rotation plan for the 3 games. There's the option to play Frawley at 12 and Robbie at 13 I guess. Be a huge physical test for Frawley though and Robbie is playing Lions form at 12.

afaik Frawley has been unavailable due to a shoulder issue and continues to be.

I thought that too but his name wasn't mentioned on the injury update yesterday.

[LeinsterLeader]

afaik Frawley has been unavailable due to a shoulder issue and continues to be.

I thought that too but his name wasn't mentioned on the injury update yesterday.

He was definitely training yesterday but how far along his recovery he is, is anybodys guess.

[mildlyinterested]

It'll be interesting to see whether the coaches go for the same line up vs Toulon. They obviously had a rotation plan for the 3 games. There's the option to play Frawley at 12 and Robbie at 13 I guess. Be a huge physical test for Frawley though and Robbie is playing Lions form at 12.

afaik Frawley has been unavailable due to a shoulder issue and continues to be.

I thought that too but his name wasn't mentioned on the injury update yesterday.

they've been pretty quiet on injuries lately. Pennys injury wasn't mentioned until media enquired where he was when they named the team for pro 14 final despite getting injured against Ospreys. Josh Murphys nose injury hasn't been mentioned.

Lancaster mentioned Frawley was injured last week in his press interview.

[Ruckedtobits]

The front-row and subs selection is a fascinating question for me. The Italian tactic of choosing to finish with your first choice is peculiar to Franco Smith but his logic is first rate:

A. You can only win the game in the final quarter, not the first quarter;
B. Statistically there are more scrums in the final quarter- players fatigue causes more mistakes;
C. Referees allow scrum "to settle in" in first quarter and give more scrum pens in final quarter;
D. The better Prop, possibly against a weaker opponent, gives a bigger advantage when game is being won or lost in final quarter.

Given how small is the margin between Porter and Furlong but accepting that Tagdh is the superior scrummager and ball carrier, I think I would be tempted to start Porter and finish with Furlong.

Alternatively, we could start with Dooley and finish with Healy, -key man on the field when the game is being decided.

This is the first season I've seen the tactic and Smith's explanation of the tactic is translated from an Italian media interview in February. Interesting logic.

I also think there's a chance we'll see Ryan in the Squad on Saturday, based on the careful wording of the injury update, where he was not ruled out but was 'still adhering to HIA protocol'. Here's hoping........

[Flash Gordon]

The front-row and subs selection is a fascinating question for me. The Italian tactic of choosing to finish with your first choice is peculiar to Franco Smith but his logic is first rate:

A. You can only win the game in the final quarter, not the first quarter;
B. Statistically there are more scrums in the final quarter- players fatigue causes more mistakes;
C. Referees allow scrum "to settle in" in first quarter and give more scrum pens in final quarter;
D. The better Prop, possibly against a weaker opponent, gives a bigger advantage when game is being won or lost in final quarter.

Given how small is the margin between Porter and Furlong but accepting that Tagdh is the superior scrummager and ball carrier, I think I would be tempted to start Porter and finish with Furlong.

Alternatively, we could start with Dooley and finish with Healy, -key man on the field when the game is being decided.

This is the first season I've seen the tactic and Smith's explanation of the tactic is translated from an Italian media interview in February. Interesting logic.

I also think there's a chance we'll see Ryan in the Squad on Saturday, based on the careful wording of the injury update, where he was not ruled out but was 'still adhering to HIA protocol'. Here's hoping........

All sounds good on paper but Italy are losing games in the first half and by the time the first choice boys hit the paddock they are beaten both physically and mentally.

[ronk]

afaik Frawley has been unavailable due to a shoulder issue and continues to be.

I thought that too but his name wasn't mentioned on the injury update yesterday.

they've been pretty quiet on injuries lately. Pennys injury wasn't mentioned until media enquired where he was when they named the team for pro 14 final despite getting injured against Ospreys. Josh Murphys nose injury hasn't been mentioned.

Lancaster mentioned Frawley was injured last week in his press interview.

If I was coming back from a broken nose I wouldn’t want the opposition knowing that and arranging a sly dig in the middle of a ruck or running at it during collisions.

[bluemagic]

Pictures of James Ryan training, any chance of Leinster being sneaky and playing mind games?

[desperado]

Would be surprised; if I'm not mistaken is Caelen Dorris not in the pic above (also a training photo). Don't expect to see either.

[Ruckedtobits]

Reviewing how Exeter score and beat teams and acknowledging that the referee is very vigilant on particular offences such as offside by chasers and obstruction in lineouts, what game plan can Leinster adopt to beat Exeter on this occasion?

The last time we met, we had a significantly more defensively experienced back three, Rob K, Fergus & Isa, but possible a lesser threat in try scoring and broken field attacking. Our mid-field was possibly a bigger attacking threat then than now and Slade and their out-half Simmonds have grown in their attacking profile. Our half-backs are both playing very well and their scrum-half Maunder is not the threat of his predecessor.

IMO, our front row is stronger than it was. Their second-row has improved marketedly and our back-row could be the same as we fielded in the second half four years ago and they dominated the final quarter. Rhys, Josh & Jack will have good memories of that encounter although none of them will remember it as easy. Vermilion will be the 'wild card' in their back-row.

A tough ask but a game that I believe will be won on the training pitch, by the Coaches who get their game plan best tailored to the occasion. Expect a lot of nuances to be evident. Targeting of individuals on both sides for defensive weaknesses. Ploys to deprive opposition attacking threats of opportunities - us keeping Hogg and Slade starved of possession, them trying to target Lowe, Henshaw and Larmour in different ways.

The obvious strengths are the efficiency of their pack inside our 22 in converting possession into tries. The multi-phase high tempo attacks off Leinster mid-field line outs and scrums. These are the hallmarks of these two very competent sides. But what will be the key differences which produce the winners?

Nothing simple in trying to predict this game. Exeter don't yet have a front-row combination to dominate like Sarries did. Nor do they have a pair of half-backs who can torture an opposition back three like Sarries did. But Exeter have probably got a better maul and a more varied line-out threat than their predecessors as English champions. However, they don't have any Vunipolas nor an Itoje.

Leinster have been preparing for a game like this since last October. I'm confident that come Saturday we'll see all the evidence of that preparation in what will be a great contest.

[mildlyinterested]

“I went against Leinster in the PRO14 final (against Munster), which was absolutely crazy, so I am going to go – in a really, really close game – with Leinster getting it done.” - BOD