Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

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mildlyinterested
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Re: Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

Post by mildlyinterested »

we won't be recruiting anyone to replace Healy.. irish rugby will need leinster to produce his intl replacement.

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Re: Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

Post by curates_egg »

mildlyinterested wrote:
September 10th, 2020, 10:03 am
we won't be recruiting anyone to replace Healy.. irish rugby will need leinster to produce his intl replacement.
Maybe we already have and he is playing elsewhere.
Once you take out Healy and Kilcoyne, 3 of the 5 remaining top players on the current depth chart are Leinster-developed props playing elsewhere (McGrath, Loughman, O'Sullivan).

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Re: Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

Post by mildlyinterested »

curates_egg wrote:
September 10th, 2020, 10:15 am
mildlyinterested wrote:
September 10th, 2020, 10:03 am
we won't be recruiting anyone to replace Healy.. irish rugby will need leinster to produce his intl replacement.
Maybe we already have and he is playing elsewhere.
Once you take out Healy and Kilcoyne, 3 of the 5 remaining top players on the current depth chart are Leinster-developed props playing elsewhere (McGrath, Loughman, O'Sullivan).
still doesn't change the fact that irish rugby can't have a NIQ starting at 1 for Leinster.

or that leinster have a James Ryan/Ryan Baird/Ronan Kelleher level talent coming through at loosehead.

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munster#1
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Re: Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

Post by munster#1 »

curates_egg wrote:
September 10th, 2020, 9:57 am
munster#1 wrote:
September 9th, 2020, 11:46 pm
alanair wrote:
September 9th, 2020, 11:05 pm


Mmm... and there was I thinking the subject was ‘Replacing LEINSTER’S older generation over next 12 to 24 months’

Maybe I was wrong
I suspect that you missed the point on this one?
Not surprised.

The rule, if you want to call it that, applies to all teams.
In this case I think it is an apt point.

No matter who Leinster lose over the next 12-24 months, as long as they still have a core group of starting internationals, then they should still be capable of winning HC’s.
If they lose lots of internationals and replace them with squad players, or players outside the international group then they may struggle.
I have heard this 9 starting international players mantra from various ex-Munster players now, and I am not fully convinced by it.
Having a high proportion of starting internationals can be disruptive to a squad and continuity over a season.
Obviously, the more top standard players you have, the better. But, ideally, they would be world class players, who are not distracted by international rugby. Toulon took that model to the extreme; Munster missed a trick by giving Snyman and De Allende international carte blanche.

For Leinster, when we made our breakthrough, I think you could argue that it was - in part - facilitated by us having a core of international standard players who were being overlooked for the national team (depending on which season, Heaslip, Healy, Jennings, Cullen, Fitzgerald), as well as international quality foreigners who didn't play much international rugby (depending on which season, Le Roux, Contepomi, Rocky, Nacewa, Whittaker, Wright).

For our current squad, and the impact of replacing the older generation, loosehead and wing/full back are the main places where we look to have possible gaps. Maybe Byrne and Dooley will more consistently step up to the potential they have shown in the past, but that is the main spot where I think we may need to recruit to fill a gap.
I was just offering an opinion that I had read, and purposely put a disclaimer on the post, as it is unlikely that there is a such thing as an all encompassing rule when it comes to winning anything.

The HC is a cup, and just about anyone can win a cup.
So there are likely to be examples that go against any methodology applied for to the development of a HC winning team.

Across every sport you could pick examples where a team bucks a trend.
I suppose it would be a much more accurate statement if it was said that a team would need 8-9 players who are at the standard of being an international starting player.
Of the players you listed, Fitzgerald, and Heaslip would have been starters, and Healy was not far behind them in 2009.
Likewise, of the imports you list, only Whittaker would not have been at that level.

Likewise with Toulon, although many of their best players do not play international rugby, often they are still at the level that they could.

Again, this is not my opinion, I’m just relaying the opinion of a professional rugby coach, who has been on the losing end of 3 HC semi finals.

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Re: Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

Post by curates_egg »

munster#1 wrote:
September 10th, 2020, 10:46 am
curates_egg wrote:
September 10th, 2020, 9:57 am
munster#1 wrote:
September 9th, 2020, 11:46 pm


I suspect that you missed the point on this one?
Not surprised.

The rule, if you want to call it that, applies to all teams.
In this case I think it is an apt point.

No matter who Leinster lose over the next 12-24 months, as long as they still have a core group of starting internationals, then they should still be capable of winning HC’s.
If they lose lots of internationals and replace them with squad players, or players outside the international group then they may struggle.
I have heard this 9 starting international players mantra from various ex-Munster players now, and I am not fully convinced by it.
Having a high proportion of starting internationals can be disruptive to a squad and continuity over a season.
Obviously, the more top standard players you have, the better. But, ideally, they would be world class players, who are not distracted by international rugby. Toulon took that model to the extreme; Munster missed a trick by giving Snyman and De Allende international carte blanche.

For Leinster, when we made our breakthrough, I think you could argue that it was - in part - facilitated by us having a core of international standard players who were being overlooked for the national team (depending on which season, Heaslip, Healy, Jennings, Cullen, Fitzgerald), as well as international quality foreigners who didn't play much international rugby (depending on which season, Le Roux, Contepomi, Rocky, Nacewa, Whittaker, Wright).

For our current squad, and the impact of replacing the older generation, loosehead and wing/full back are the main places where we look to have possible gaps. Maybe Byrne and Dooley will more consistently step up to the potential they have shown in the past, but that is the main spot where I think we may need to recruit to fill a gap.
I was just offering an opinion that I had read, and purposely put a disclaimer on the post, as it is unlikely that there is a such thing as an all encompassing rule when it comes to winning anything.

The HC is a cup, and just about anyone can win a cup.
So there are likely to be examples that go against any methodology applied for to the development of a HC winning team.

Across every sport you could pick examples where a team bucks a trend.
I suppose it would be a much more accurate statement if it was said that a team would need 8-9 players who are at the standard of being an international starting player.
Of the players you listed, Fitzgerald, and Heaslip would have been starters, and Healy was not far behind them in 2009.
Likewise, of the imports you list, only Whittaker would not have been at that level.

Likewise with Toulon, although many of their best players do not play international rugby, often they are still at the level that they could.

Again, this is not my opinion, I’m just relaying the opinion of a professional rugby coach, who has been on the losing end of 3 HC semi finals.
Then we are in agreement.
My point was that the players do not need to be starting internationals and, in fact, it may preferable that they are not i.e. that they are internationals who, for whatever reason, are not starting. That means that they don't need to have their game time limited as much and are less likely to pick up injuries. For overlooked international quality players, they might also be playing with a helpful chip on their shoulder - like Heaslip before the 2008 Six Nations (I shouldn't have included Fitzgerald, who never fell into that category).

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Re: Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

Post by munster#1 »

Well I wouldn’t disagree with that.
There are many reasons why a player is not a coaches favoured player.
Joe regularly picked players who fit his game plan, rather than them being the best player in that position.
That would completely turn the statement on it’s head.

Although, by and large the metrics make a lot of sense.
Of the 15 players who take the field, you do need 8-9 of them to be at the level required to be an international starting player, rather than squad player level.

So even if Leinster were to lose Healy and Sexton, their replacements do not have to be at their level, as long as the team as a whole remain at the required standard.

IMO Sexton is the player that will be missed the most for Leinster.
IMO Byrne is a big step down, and the Leinster options at SH are not at the level to carry a weaker OH.

A team needs quality half backs to be successful, a top class out half can carry an average scrum half and visa versa, but when both are 7/10 players, then it is very difficult to compete against the best.

The options available at LH are not a massive drop from Healy in the scrum, you do lose out on his ball carrying, but that is something that can be performed by someone else in the pack, and is not specific to LH.

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Re: Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

Post by Oldschool »

munster#1 wrote:
September 10th, 2020, 11:32 am
Well I wouldn’t disagree with that.
There are many reasons why a player is not a coaches favoured player.
Joe regularly picked players who fit his game plan, rather than them being the best player in that position.
That would completely turn the statement on it’s head.

Although, by and large the metrics make a lot of sense.
Of the 15 players who take the field, you do need 8-9 of them to be at the level required to be an international starting player, rather than squad player level.

So even if Leinster were to lose Healy and Sexton, their replacements do not have to be at their level, as long as the team as a whole remain at the required standard.

IMO Sexton is the player that will be missed the most for Leinster.
IMO Byrne is a big step down, and the Leinster options at SH are not at the level to carry a weaker OH.

A team needs quality half backs to be successful, a top class out half can carry an average scrum half and visa versa, but when both are 7/10 players, then it is very difficult to compete against the best.

The options available at LH are not a massive drop from Healy in the scrum, you do lose out on his ball carrying, but that is something that can be performed by someone else in the pack, and is not specific to LH.
I'd be sanguine enough about our situation at OH.
I wouldn't expect any fall off and in fact I'd actually expect a n improvement.
Cue the expected hubris you were hoping for.
However it has to be said that had Dan Carter's career not coincided with Sexton's then Sexton would have been deemed the best OH world wide in the last decade.
Hopefully any ruffled feathers have been suitably unruffled.
We have more of a problem at SH although I'd give JGP an 8, which makes him an international contender.
In fact, on current form only Marmion would be ahead of him in that regard.
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Re: Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

Post by paddyor »

munster#1 wrote:
September 8th, 2020, 3:55 pm
Jerry Flannery was interviewed recently on leaving Munster, and he went into the reasoning behind Munster struggling to win a HC.
I think they made 3 semi finals in his time as coach, and he is quoted as saying that a team needs 8 or 9 starting internationals to win a HC, and Munster has 4.

By that metric, you would have to review the players leaving and consider what is coming behind them.

Disclaimer: not saying that this metric is 100% accurate, and I have not researched to see if it is actually the case with past winners.
Last thing on this. I thought Flannery did well with the Munster pack. Their set piece and maul seemed to work well and they generally made it to the pointy end of competitions. So I'm inclined to agree with his opinion that he got the most out of what was there. Felix Jones going on to win a RWC with SA tends to support that opinion

I don't think his rule is much use though(e.g. France, Wales and Scotland). So really he's just talking about Ireland?
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Re: Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

Post by Oldschoolsocks »

curates_egg wrote:
September 10th, 2020, 10:15 am
mildlyinterested wrote:
September 10th, 2020, 10:03 am
we won't be recruiting anyone to replace Healy.. irish rugby will need leinster to produce his intl replacement.
Maybe we already have and he is playing elsewhere.
Once you take out Healy and Kilcoyne, 3 of the 5 remaining top players on the current depth chart are Leinster-developed props playing elsewhere (McGrath, Loughman, O'Sullivan).
O’Sullivan wasn’t Leinster developed

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Re: Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

Post by Jonny tight lips »

Oldschoolsocks wrote:
September 11th, 2020, 7:09 am
curates_egg wrote:
September 10th, 2020, 10:15 am
mildlyinterested wrote:
September 10th, 2020, 10:03 am
we won't be recruiting anyone to replace Healy.. irish rugby will need leinster to produce his intl replacement.
Maybe we already have and he is playing elsewhere.
Once you take out Healy and Kilcoyne, 3 of the 5 remaining top players on the current depth chart are Leinster-developed props playing elsewhere (McGrath, Loughman, O'Sullivan).
O’Sullivan wasn’t Leinster developed
Born in leinster, went to a leinster school, represented leinster rugby right up to the academy and only moved to
Ulster to take a spot in their academy. He hardly rocked up to the Ulster academy as raw material.

Leinster is a place not just the senior/academy team.

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Re: Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

Post by curates_egg »

Oldschoolsocks wrote:
September 11th, 2020, 7:09 am
curates_egg wrote:
September 10th, 2020, 10:15 am
mildlyinterested wrote:
September 10th, 2020, 10:03 am
we won't be recruiting anyone to replace Healy.. irish rugby will need leinster to produce his intl replacement.
Maybe we already have and he is playing elsewhere.
Once you take out Healy and Kilcoyne, 3 of the 5 remaining top players on the current depth chart are Leinster-developed props playing elsewhere (McGrath, Loughman, O'Sullivan).
O’Sullivan wasn’t Leinster developed
As Johnny said, I didn't write ex-Leinster academy. There is no doubt he was part of the Leinster system though: he's less than three years in Ulster.
They're all players Leinster - one way or another - let go. Fair balls to them.
As good as the academy system is, and as fortunate as we are to have it, there is something reassuring about seeing other paths to top.

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Re: Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

Post by munster#1 »

paddyor wrote:
September 11th, 2020, 12:40 am
munster#1 wrote:
September 8th, 2020, 3:55 pm
Jerry Flannery was interviewed recently on leaving Munster, and he went into the reasoning behind Munster struggling to win a HC.
I think they made 3 semi finals in his time as coach, and he is quoted as saying that a team needs 8 or 9 starting internationals to win a HC, and Munster has 4.

By that metric, you would have to review the players leaving and consider what is coming behind them.

Disclaimer: not saying that this metric is 100% accurate, and I have not researched to see if it is actually the case with past winners.
Last thing on this. I thought Flannery did well with the Munster pack. Their set piece and maul seemed to work well and they generally made it to the pointy end of competitions. So I'm inclined to agree with his opinion that he got the most out of what was there. Felix Jones going on to win a RWC with SA tends to support that opinion

I don't think his rule is much use though(e.g. France, Wales and Scotland). So really he's just talking about Ireland?
Fair point.

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Re: Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

Post by Oldschoolsocks »

curates_egg wrote:
September 11th, 2020, 8:27 am
Oldschoolsocks wrote:
September 11th, 2020, 7:09 am
curates_egg wrote:
September 10th, 2020, 10:15 am


Maybe we already have and he is playing elsewhere.
Once you take out Healy and Kilcoyne, 3 of the 5 remaining top players on the current depth chart are Leinster-developed props playing elsewhere (McGrath, Loughman, O'Sullivan).
O’Sullivan wasn’t Leinster developed
As Johnny said, I didn't write ex-Leinster academy. There is no doubt he was part of the Leinster system though: he's less than three years in Ulster.
They're all players Leinster - one way or another - let go. Fair balls to them.
As good as the academy system is, and as fortunate as we are to have it, there is something reassuring about seeing other paths to top.
Thanks for the clarification, post schools O’Sullivan went to DU and then Banbridge I believe where he was picked up by Ulster. Definitely not Leinster developed in the way McGrath or Loughman were

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Re: Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

Post by curates_egg »

Oldschoolsocks wrote:
September 11th, 2020, 1:47 pm
curates_egg wrote:
September 11th, 2020, 8:27 am
Oldschoolsocks wrote:
September 11th, 2020, 7:09 am


O’Sullivan wasn’t Leinster developed
As Johnny said, I didn't write ex-Leinster academy. There is no doubt he was part of the Leinster system though: he's less than three years in Ulster.
They're all players Leinster - one way or another - let go. Fair balls to them.
As good as the academy system is, and as fortunate as we are to have it, there is something reassuring about seeing other paths to top.
Thanks for the clarification, post schools O’Sullivan went to DU and then Banbridge I believe where he was picked up by Ulster. Definitely not Leinster developed in the way McGrath or Loughman were
No. But he played up to u20 for Leinster, so it would be quite a stretch to claim he was developed by Ulster!

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Re: Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

Post by mildlyinterested »

Oldschoolsocks wrote:
September 11th, 2020, 1:47 pm
curates_egg wrote:
September 11th, 2020, 8:27 am
Oldschoolsocks wrote:
September 11th, 2020, 7:09 am


O’Sullivan wasn’t Leinster developed
As Johnny said, I didn't write ex-Leinster academy. There is no doubt he was part of the Leinster system though: he's less than three years in Ulster.
They're all players Leinster - one way or another - let go. Fair balls to them.
As good as the academy system is, and as fortunate as we are to have it, there is something reassuring about seeing other paths to top.
Thanks for the clarification, post schools O’Sullivan went to DU and then Banbridge I believe where he was picked up by Ulster. Definitely not Leinster developed in the way McGrath or Loughman were
post school he went to DUFC and was involved with the leinster sub-academy..he played underage rugby for leinster from 16 to 20.

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Re: Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

Post by Oldschoolsocks »

curates_egg wrote:
September 11th, 2020, 1:58 pm
...

No. But he played up to u20 for Leinster, so it would be quite a stretch to claim he was developed by Ulster!
Agreed, he is pretty much self developed post schools (apart from some help from someone at U-20s? You’d have to ask mildly about that)

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Re: Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

Post by hugonaut »

Bit of a floating subject here, but Conor Glass [a Derryman and Conor Nash's team-mate and best friend at Hawthorn] has called an end to his career in the AFL with immediate effect [source: https://www.the42.ie/irish-afl-player-c ... 3-Sep2020/ ].

He has actually been a little more successful at Hawthorn than Nash [Glass: https://www.hawthornfc.com.au/players/8 ... statistics | Nash: https://www.hawthornfc.com.au/players/1 ... statistics ]. However, AFL players have taken a 50% pay cut and are living a strange existence at the moment, as Nash relates in this interview [source: https://www.rte.ie/sport/other-sport/20 ... wn-bubble/ ], so I'm not surprised that Glass has decided to hang up his guernsey.

I have to say that I have my fingers crossed that Nash makes the same call. I certainly wanted him to play for Leinster rather than Hawthorn, but when a guy makes a difficult decision to travel around the world and take up another sport, you have no option but to commend his sense of adventure and wish him the best with his career.

But if it's not panning out for him as he wanted, I hope that the door isn't just open for him at Leinster, but that it's made known that he is wanted and welcome in the organisation. He is an outstanding athlete, a one-off. Can't really think of anyone else in Irish sport with whom to compare him.

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Re: Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

Post by Barry »

Doubtless Meath GAA are also keeping an eye on this.

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Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

Post by Twist »

hugonaut wrote:Bit of a floating subject here, but Conor Glass [a Derryman and Conor Nash's team-mate and best friend at Hawthorn] has called an end to his career in the AFL with immediate effect [source: https://www.the42.ie/irish-afl-player-c ... 3-Sep2020/ ].

He has actually been a little more successful at Hawthorn than Nash [Glass: https://www.hawthornfc.com.au/players/8 ... statistics | Nash: https://www.hawthornfc.com.au/players/1 ... statistics ]. However, AFL players have taken a 50% pay cut and are living a strange existence at the moment, as Nash relates in this interview [source: https://www.rte.ie/sport/other-sport/20 ... wn-bubble/ ], so I'm not surprised that Glass has decided to hang up his guernsey.

I have to say that I have my fingers crossed that Nash makes the same call. I certainly wanted him to play for Leinster rather than Hawthorn, but when a guy makes a difficult decision to travel around the world and take up another sport, you have no option but to commend his sense of adventure and wish him the best with his career.

But if it's not panning out for him as he wanted, I hope that the door isn't just open for him at Leinster, but that it's made known that he is wanted and welcome in the organisation. He is an outstanding athlete, a one-off. Can't really think of anyone else in Irish sport with whom to compare him.
+1

For anyone who didnt see him, imagine Ryan Baird’s height, Rob Kearney’s catching and a siege gun for a boot.

Not to oversell him, or anything.

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Re: Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

Post by LeRouxIsPHat »

Or just imagine Israel Folau without the homophobia.

Interesting stuff Hugo, last time I checked up on he seemed to be doing well although I don't know a thing about AFL. I think one of our coaches mentioned that we were still in touch with him didn't they? Can't remember the details and it must be at least a year ago.

Definitely worth a phone call anyway.

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