Replacing Leinster's older generation over next 12 to 24 months

[mildlyinterested]

ROG seemed to cast doubt on leinster's squad and their ability to replace their older leaders in his recent examiner article: https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/c ... 43042.html

Below is a list of Leinster's older generation nearing the end of their leinster careers and two players who could potentially replacement them

Cian Healy(33) -> Michael Milne(21) or Jack Boyle(U19)
Sean Cronin(34) -> Dan Sheehan(22) or Lee Barron(U20)
Michael Bent(34) -> Tom Clarkson(20) or Rory McGuire(U19)
Devin Toner(34) -> Jack Dunne(22) or Joe McCarthy(U20)
Scott Fardy(36) -> Ryan Baird(21) or Alex Soroka(U20)
Johnny Sexton(35) -> Harry Byrne(21) or Charlie Tector(U19)
Rob Kearney(34) -> Hugo Keenan(24) or Chris Cosgrave(U20)
Fergus McFadden(34) -> Andrew Smith(20) or Jamie Osborne(U20)

All of the above senior players contracts end in June 2021, except Kearney & McFadden who finish could be finished in two weeks time, i'd say it's safe to say Healy and Sexton will almost certainly continue playing beyond that point.. what happens with the rest is difficult to forecast but any of them calling it a day on their career wouldn't be hugely surprising.

[joooooe]

I see what you're doing, by showing the young replacement next to the potentially-retiring veteran. The reality is that there's a depth chart/taxi rank/conveyor belt for each position, so the comparison is not very fair.

There's a scene at the end of the book Friday Night Lights where Coach Gaines removes all the Senior year players' names from the top of a chart and, one by one, moves all the players underneath up one space. I'm sure Coach Cullen and Coach Lancaster operate a similar system (though probably in a spreadsheet).

When Cian Healy plays his last game, we have Peter Dooley and Ed Byrne before we have to consider Michael Milne or Jack Boyle. We could go down through the list in that manner, also showing players who could play the position (Kearney, Larmour, D Kearney, Keenan, Lowe, Henshaw,...)

An analysis of that nature would probably show some flaws in O'Gara's argument. A similar analysis of other provincial squads would show that Leinster are in far-and-away the best position in terms of succession planning (though I fear many of the names on Leinster's depth charts also appear on other provincial depth charts...).

[ronk]

Healy and Sexton are the only nailed on starters. Toner and Fardy are the unit who rotate with each other.

We have depth everywhere. Losing someone like Sexton is never easy. There’s a step down from Healy too but good players. I’m not worried about lock, especially if we get Toner for an extra year or two.

[Longtimelurker]

I'm curious mildly do you not rate any of the current under 20s props or outhalfs when your going straight for 19s. Thought the under 20s this season were said to be a strong side albeit they missed the usual training and interpros

[hugonaut]

ROG seemed to cast doubt on leinster's squad and their ability to replace their older leaders in his recent examiner article: https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/c ... 43042.html

Below is a list of Leinster's older generation nearing the end of their leinster careers and two players who could potentially replacement them

Cian Healy(33) -> Michael Milne(21) or Jack Boyle(U19)
Sean Cronin(34) -> Dan Sheehan(22) or Lee Barron(U20)
Michael Bent(34) -> Tom Clarkson(20) or Rory McGuire(U19)
Devin Toner(34) -> Jack Dunne(22) or Joe McCarthy(U20)
Scott Fardy(36) -> Ryan Baird(21) or Alex Soroka(U20)
Johnny Sexton(35) -> Harry Byrne(21) or Charlie Tector(U19)
Rob Kearney(34) -> Hugo Keenan(24) or Chris Cosgrave(U20)
Fergus McFadden(34) -> Andrew Smith(20) or Jamie Osborne(U20)

All of the above senior players contracts end in June 2021, except Kearney & McFadden who finish could be finished in two weeks time, i'd say it's safe to say Healy and Sexton will almost certainly continue playing beyond that point.. what happens with the rest is difficult to forecast but any of them calling it a day on their career wouldn't be hugely surprising.

I think the premise is a little off in this one Mildly. If you're talking about replacing players [i.e. one out, one in], then I think you have to consider the direct replacement – the guy who will be starting the matches that the retired player was starting the previous season – rather than naming a very young player in the same position coming into the organisation at the bottom of the depth chart.

We won't be replacing Johnny Sexton with Charlie Tector, to be blunt.

I am by no means disagreeing with all your suggestions. For example, I could see Tom Clarkson outstripping Vahk Abdeladze just based on how good Clarkson has been at every stage of his age-grade career, and how highly he is rated in the Academy. That would suggest he will be Bent's replacement when the latter retires.

But on the other hand, Larmour is clearly Rob Kearney's replacement at fullback. Similarly, Ronan Kelleher is clearly Cronin's replacement at hooker – I think it's more realistic to say that Dan Sheehan has come into the squad as Bryan Byrne's replacement. Maybe Dan will pass James Tracy out as swiftly as Kelleher passed Cronin; I don't know.

I'd see one of Cian Kelleher or Adam Byrne as Ferg's replacement – that is, contenders for the No14 jersey. No-one can replace Ferg!

[ronk]

If you are looking at the overall squad then those are valid comparisons. For the strongest XXIII it’s different.

[mildlyinterested]

Yeah I know they obviously won't be direct replacements.. although who knows.. Kelleher has already replaced Cronin as starting 2, Sheehan may replace him as backup.. Bent may be replaced by Clarkson as 3rd choice TH etc. etc.

[mildlyinterested]

I'm curious mildly do you not rate any of the current under 20s props or outhalfs when your going straight for 19s. Thought the under 20s this season were said to be a strong side albeit they missed the usual training and interpros

there are good options at u20 level at those positions but potential stars there at u19 level.

i'd expect Boyle to start at 1 for the 20's, while Tector could start at 10.. McGuire is still in school but if he wasn't he would in contention to be 1st choice TH for the 20's.

[Jonny tight lips]

Other than Cian Healy you would imagine we’ve enough dept to cope with loosing any one or all of the players listed.

Even at that you could move Porter across if needed

[mildlyinterested]

Other than Cian Healy you would imagine we’ve enough dept to cope with loosing any one or all of the players listed.

Even at that you could move Porter across if needed

given furlong's back issues and the lack of depth at TH.. i dunno about moving porter across.

[Jonny tight lips]

Other than Cian Healy you would imagine we’ve enough dept to cope with loosing any one or all of the players listed.

Even at that you could move Porter across if needed

given furlong's back issues and the lack of depth at TH.. i dunno about moving porter across.

Fair point but remove Healy from the LH depth chart and that’s the much bigger problem.

[mildlyinterested]

Fair point but remove Healy from the LH depth chart and that’s the much bigger problem.

disagree, Byrne/Dooley have both played in europe and not found wanting and Milne looks promising.

Until Furlong returns and looks back to his old self, Porter is immovable from TH and even then i'd question it.

[Oldschool]

Healy and Sexton are the only nailed on starters. Toner and Fardy are the unit who rotate with each other.

We have depth everywhere. Losing someone like Sexton is never easy. There’s a step down from Healy too but good players. I’m not worried about lock, especially if we get Toner for an extra year or two.

If Sexton continues to play the way he has been recently he's going to come a cropper against Saracens snd so are Leinster.
I sincerely hope that LeoCaster are seeing the warning signs.

[wixfjord]

Healy and Sexton are the only nailed on starters. Toner and Fardy are the unit who rotate with each other.

We have depth everywhere. Losing someone like Sexton is never easy. There’s a step down from Healy too but good players. I’m not worried about lock, especially if we get Toner for an extra year or two.

If Sexton continues to play the way he has been recently he's going to come a cropper against Saracens snd so are Leinster.
I sincerely hope that LeoCaster are seeing the warning signs.

What you mean showing again that he's a world class 10 by leading his team to victories in two derbies, kicking 90%+ and making big offensive and defensive plays?

I hope they're seeing those warning signs alright.

[Oldschool]

Healy and Sexton are the only nailed on starters. Toner and Fardy are the unit who rotate with each other.

We have depth everywhere. Losing someone like Sexton is never easy. There’s a step down from Healy too but good players. I’m not worried about lock, especially if we get Toner for an extra year or two.

If Sexton continues to play the way he has been recently he's going to come a cropper against Saracens snd so are Leinster.
I sincerely hope that LeoCaster are seeing the warning signs.

What you mean showing again that he's a world class 10 by leading his team to victories in two derbies, kicking 90%+ and making big offensive and defensive plays?

I hope they're seeing those warning signs alright.

None of that slightly ott stuff.
He's been playing well enough but the chinks are there to see and unfortunately Saracens will expose them.

[wixfjord]

If Sexton continues to play the way he has been recently he's going to come a cropper against Saracens snd so are Leinster.
I sincerely hope that LeoCaster are seeing the warning signs.

What you mean showing again that he's a world class 10 by leading his team to victories in two derbies, kicking 90%+ and making big offensive and defensive plays?

I hope they're seeing those warning signs alright.

None of that slightly ott stuff.
He's been playing well enough but the chinks are there to see and unfortunately Saracens will expose them.

And besides the kicking, attack, defence what chinks are they then OS?

[mildlyinterested]

He had a least one poor pass, which ended with Larmour getting concussed. He hasn't been perfect but he's been pretty damn good.

[Jonny tight lips]

Fair point but remove Healy from the LH depth chart and that’s the much bigger problem.

disagree, Byrne/Dooley have both played in europe and not found wanting and Milne looks promising.

Until Furlong returns and looks back to his old self, Porter is immovable from TH and even then i'd question it.

I’ll respectfully disagree, I don’t think the lads are top line players. If we want to win European cups we need International standard players in every position and the two boys are nowhere near the national set up. Maybe in a micky mouse tour during a lions year they could get a cap but even at that there are probably too many ahead of them.

[munster#1]

Jerry Flannery was interviewed recently on leaving Munster, and he went into the reasoning behind Munster struggling to win a HC.
I think they made 3 semi finals in his time as coach, and he is quoted as saying that a team needs 8 or 9 starting internationals to win a HC, and Munster has 4.

By that metric, you would have to review the players leaving and consider what is coming behind them.

Disclaimer: not saying that this metric is 100% accurate, and I have not researched to see if it is actually the case with past winners.

[Up Wexford]

WRT the "macro" numbers of what you need to win a championship, the 1014 rugby podcast had a fascinating vid before RWC'19 on the exact metrics needed to guarantee a wind, as per NZ number crunchers. ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5z6TBd7nQMo ) In essence, the destination of the trophy was decided before a match was even played. (or so they thought.)

While I dont disagree obviously with having as many internationals as possible in the team, I wound be far more optimistic on Peter Dooley replacing Healy than most. Last year he was one of our most consistent performers, and in my opinion at a very high level in the loose and at scrum time. He's listed at 6 foot on the website, but i'd swear he was taller, and at 26 is just coming into his prime. His career has been disrupted by injury and while he is nowhere near the Irish squad yet, I think Leo and Stu would be confident to start him in Euro games next year.