Leinster Squad 20-21

[CiaranIrl]

Hard to interpret this, but Toner possibly leaving to be confirmed soon?

https://youtu.be/KQTi53SqGnA?t=1184

I think it's a terrible call if we let Toner leave. I just don't believe we can't afford to keep him. The man is likely to have a couple of years left in the tank, given his role, position and injury free career. He's almost certainly going to be starting in our knock out matches until the end of the year, he's a superb team player to have in the squad, and he's an amazing lineout guru for others to learn from. I really think it would be a big mistake to let him go when he wants to stay.

Toner could have years left. Maybe another 50+ games. I think everyone wants him to stay. But if you look at the lads who left last year and the ones who are set to leave this year then you get a picture of how roughly we are cutting back.

The IRFU won’t let us cut players who will be on the international squad next season, only Munster can do that. A lot of money has been lost, is it 5 fullish Aviva’s we’ve missed so far. What else can we cut?

I know, yeah, but the rest of the players going I can totally understand. This lad is starting in the business end of the European cup though. Surely we can find it somewhere. This is temporary. We don't run at a loss / debt like some provinces, and we should be absolutely fine to keep his salary going once we start getting season tickets and such into the coffers.

What I would be really annoyed at is us letting him go and then announcing some NIQ signing that we essentially don't need for in any position.

[riocard911]

I seem to remember Joe Schmidt deeming Dev superfluous to requirements. That didn't work out too well....

[mildlyinterested]

appears Tom Clarkson will be out for a few months due to a knee injury.

[ronk]

appears Tom Clarkson will be out for a few months due to a knee injury.

Dammit.

At least Vakh is back at a perfect time.

[Workhorse]

he was healthy in his final season for leinster, but was released anyway after a few appearances.. it's a mitigating factor but given he has turned into a lions level player you'd hope leinster will have learned a few lessons from that given he was released while squad players like Mick Kearney and Ian Nagle were retained.

Same goes for Thornbury who returned from NZ and was looking for a pro contract.

Leinster seemed happier to rely on low ceiling players like Kearney and Nagle instead of rolling with some high upside projects in Beirne and Thornbury, you'd hope going forward that this wouldn't happen again given Beirne is now our biggest rivals best player.

I don't think similar would happen today but you never know, see Cormac Izuchukwu.

Some may think this over-critical but I think a organization such as leinster will be evaluating themselves and trying to ensure that athletes such as Beirne and Thornbury who they had invested heavily in and are quite rare in irish rugby are not lost again in the future.

Leinster have been quite lucky to have James Ryan and Ryan Baird come out of u20 rugby ready to play top level rugby almost immediately... and this has helped cover up the loss of Beirne and Thornbury to other provinces.

That's how Leinsters development path works though. You can't keep everyone with quality because there aren't enough minutes to go around, nor is there enough money. Leinster operate with a 6 man second row rotation of 2 Irish internationals, 2/3 Pro14 players (either imports or players just not quite Ireland quality) and 2/1 prospects with max 4 between the last two categories. You cant keep 3 international quality locks happy (unless you play one at 6 but we're not exactly stuck for quality back rowers either so that's not an option).

It's very easy to say oh we missed out on players of Thornbury and Beirnes potential but they likely wouldn't have reached that potential at Leinster due to a lack of minutes.

So if you look at when those two were in the squad you had Internationals (Toner, McCarthy), Pro 14/12 (Triggs, Kearney), Prospects (Beirne, Thornbury).
When they left Molony took one of the prospect roles while Nagle came in to fill the gap until Ryan was ready (after U20s it was a case of would it be that year or next for him) Nagle then stayed on the next year because McCarthy retired unexpectedly.

Essentially Leinsters 2nd rows went:
2015: (Toner, McCarthy),(Triggs, Kearney),(Beirne, Thornbury)
2016: (Toner, McCarthy),(Triggs, Kearney, Nagle[holding for Ryan]),(Molony)
2017: (Toner, Ryan),(Fardy, Kearney, Nagle[Would have been McCarthy]),(Molony)
2018: (Toner, Ryan),(Fardy, Kearney, Nagle[Would have been McCarthy]),(Molony)
2019: (Toner, Ryan),(Fardy, Molony),(Dowling, Baird/Dunne)
2020: (Toner, Ryan),(Fardy, Molony),(Baird, Dunne)
And for 2021 is looking like:
(Baird, Ryan),(Dunne, Molony),(Ryan, Deeny)

It's not an exact science but there was no luck involved in Baird and Ryan coming through how they did. The spots in the squad were planned out for them.

[hugonaut]

he was healthy in his final season for leinster, but was released anyway after a few appearances.. it's a mitigating factor but given he has turned into a lions level player you'd hope leinster will have learned a few lessons from that given he was released while squad players like Mick Kearney and Ian Nagle were retained.

Same goes for Thornbury who returned from NZ and was looking for a pro contract.

Leinster seemed happier to rely on low ceiling players like Kearney and Nagle instead of rolling with some high upside projects in Beirne and Thornbury, you'd hope going forward that this wouldn't happen again given Beirne is now our biggest rivals best player.

I don't think similar would happen today but you never know, see Cormac Izuchukwu.

Some may think this over-critical but I think a organization such as leinster will be evaluating themselves and trying to ensure that athletes such as Beirne and Thornbury who they had invested heavily in and are quite rare in irish rugby are not lost again in the future.

Leinster have been quite lucky to have James Ryan and Ryan Baird come out of u20 rugby ready to play top level rugby almost immediately... and this has helped cover up the loss of Beirne and Thornbury to other provinces.

That's how Leinsters development path works though. You can't keep everyone with quality because there aren't enough minutes to go around, nor is there enough money. Leinster operate with a 6 man second row rotation of 2 Irish internationals, 2/3 Pro14 players (either imports or players just not quite Ireland quality) and 2/1 prospects with max 4 between the last two categories. You cant keep 3 international quality locks happy (unless you play one at 6 but we're not exactly stuck for quality back rowers either so that's not an option).

It's very easy to say oh we missed out on players of Thornbury and Beirnes potential but they likely wouldn't have reached that potential at Leinster due to a lack of minutes.

So if you look at when those two were in the squad you had Internationals (Toner, McCarthy), Pro 14/12 (Triggs, Kearney), Prospects (Beirne, Thornbury).
When they left Molony took one of the prospect roles while Nagle came in to fill the gap until Ryan was ready (after U20s it was a case of would it be that year or next for him) Nagle then stayed on the next year because McCarthy retired unexpectedly.

Essentially Leinsters 2nd rows went:
2015: (Toner, McCarthy),(Triggs, Kearney),(Beirne, Thornbury)
2016: (Toner, McCarthy),(Triggs, Kearney, Nagle[holding for Ryan]),(Molony)
2017: (Toner, Ryan),(Fardy, Kearney, Nagle[Would have been McCarthy]),(Molony)
2018: (Toner, Ryan),(Fardy, Kearney, Nagle[Would have been McCarthy]),(Molony)
2019: (Toner, Ryan),(Fardy, Molony),(Dowling, Baird/Dunne)
2020: (Toner, Ryan),(Fardy, Molony),(Baird, Dunne)
And for 2021 is looking like:
(Baird, Ryan),(Dunne, Molony),(Ryan, Deeny)

It's not an exact science but there was no luck involved in Baird and Ryan coming through how they did. The spots in the squad were planned out for them.

We will never be in a position to give somebody the gametime Pivac put on Tadhg Beirne in 2017-18: 29+1 games, 2278 minutes [source: http://www.itsrugby.co.uk/players/tadhg ... 25346.html ]. It just won't happen. If he was eligible for Ireland, he'd get picked for Ireland; if he wasn't, the players below him would want out.

With regards to Thornbury, in 2017-18 he only made 5 starts for Connacht [5+9, 605 minutes]. They didn't have a great second row at the time either. I'm a fan of his, but it has taken a long time for him to come good.

[mildlyinterested]

It's an issue that players like Mick Kearney and Ian Nagle were given game time over a player as talented as Beirne.

It can't be as easy as to say 'ah well if Beirne had stayed at leinster he wouldn't have reached his current level', surely that's a major issue for the leinster development pathway if thats the case..

Anyway as I said I think Leinster have learned lessons from watching Beirne rise elsewhere and hopefully similar wouldnt happen again.

[the spoofer]

It's an issue that players like Mick Kearney and Ian Nagle were given game time over a player as talented as Beirne.

It can't be as easy as to say 'ah well if Beirne had stayed at leinster he wouldn't have reached his current level', surely that's a major issue for the leinster development pathway if thats the case..

Anyway as I said I think Leinster have learned lessons from watching Beirne rise elsewhere and hopefully similar wouldnt happen again.

I don't remember anyone who was too disappointed when Beirne and Thornburry left. They were not marked out as elite players. Great that they have developed but retaining Beirne probably would have ruled out the Fardy deal or hampered the progression of some of the other cadre of rows. Would I have swapped Toner for Beirne before this season? Not a chance.

[wixfjord]

Also, you have to make decisions based on the info you have at the time. Hindsight is 20/20 but in an academy scenario you're making calculated bets all the time, based on totally incomplete information. Given the sheer number of players coming through you're going to get things wrong clearly.

You can't on the one hand give Leinster no credit for Ryan/Baird coming through then give them all the blame for missing Beirne/Thornbury either, both of whom have taken a lot of time to mature.

[Workhorse]

It's an issue that players like Mick Kearney and Ian Nagle were given game time over a player as talented as Beirne.

It can't be as easy as to say 'ah well if Beirne had stayed at leinster he wouldn't have reached his current level', surely that's a major issue for the leinster development pathway if thats the case..

Anyway as I said I think Leinster have learned lessons from watching Beirne rise elsewhere and hopefully similar wouldnt happen again.

It's not a problem with Leinsters pathway. It's a simple fact of sports, you need minutes to improve and you need quality minutes to reach international standard. Leinster decided that Molony was more worth those minutes and with one eye on Ryan they didn't want them blocking his pathway.

Look at just 3 players who has come through since those two. Ross Molony (Probably equal to Thornbury's level), James Ryan (Best 2nd row in Ireland and it's not really close) and Ryan Baird (A full international at 21, playing champions cup at 20/21). If Leinster had kept those two not only would they have blocked the pathway for those 3 but it's not even clear they'd have reached the level they have because it's possible if not probable they'd have been stuck behind Toner.
Ryan probably breaks through no matter what but if he does then its him and Toner in the second row, Beirne could maybe be third choice but even with all his additional exposure that he got in Wales and Limerick its only really the last 2 seasons he's moved ahead of Dev at which point Baird is already in the picture.
So if Leinster kept those two you're probably getting lesser versions of both of them, and you're denting the prospects of Baird and Molony.

So Beirne and Thornbury aren't examples of the Leinster development pathway going wrong, they're examples of it working exactly as it should. Leinster get the best of the best and the best of the rest improve the rest of Irish Rugby.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

It's an issue that players like Mick Kearney and Ian Nagle were given game time over a player as talented as Beirne.

It can't be as easy as to say 'ah well if Beirne had stayed at leinster he wouldn't have reached his current level', surely that's a major issue for the leinster development pathway if thats the case..

Anyway as I said I think Leinster have learned lessons from watching Beirne rise elsewhere and hopefully similar wouldnt happen again.

I don't remember anyone who was too disappointed when Beirne and Thornburry left. They were not marked out as elite players. Great that they have developed but retaining Beirne probably would have ruled out the Fardy deal or hampered the progression of some of the other cadre of rows. Would I have swapped Toner for Beirne before this season? Not a chance.

+1

I saw them both play A games and neither stood out as being any better than the likes of Mick Kearney, who was actually very good for us but ruined by injuries IIRC. Plus you've to weigh up what you need in terms of tighthead locks, lineout specialists, what band of contracts the players fit into etc etc.

My one criticism would be that I'd love another pathway for Irish players to leave to get games and then come back but it's not Leinster's fault that that didn't/doesn't exist, we'd loan players out more often/effectively if we were allowed to.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Also, you have to make decisions based on the info you have at the time. Hindsight is 20/20 but in an academy scenario you're making calculated bets all the time, based on totally incomplete information. Given the sheer number of players coming through you're going to get things wrong clearly.

You can't on the one hand give Leinster no credit for Ryan/Baird coming through then give them all the blame for missing Beirne/Thornbury either, both of whom have taken a lot of time to mature.

Exactly, you could probably make an argument for keeping every single player from the academy based on what they did to get into it and how they might mature if given time.

It's the same with Karl Martin IMO. Saw him play a training game once and he was unbelievably good but in the games I saw him play since (admittedly a very limited number) he was barely involved and looked very one paced and under powered. Is it possible that he was just bigger than others at underage level and maybe didn't play at a standard that tested him sufficiently? It reminded me of the difference between seeing Brendan Macken play schools rugby and then play for the Ireland U20's, he was anonymous. Just because Martin's stats might be impressive doesn't mean he's good enough, games are played on pitches not spreadsheets. It could well have been for financial reasons (IRFU announced redundancies yesterday and I know Leinster are operating with a skeleton staff at the moment) and if so then that's unfortunate but so be it, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility that the coaches have just been underwhelmed and if so then why should they push the boat out?

[ronk]

It's an issue that players like Mick Kearney and Ian Nagle were given game time over a player as talented as Beirne.

It can't be as easy as to say 'ah well if Beirne had stayed at leinster he wouldn't have reached his current level', surely that's a major issue for the leinster development pathway if thats the case..

Anyway as I said I think Leinster have learned lessons from watching Beirne rise elsewhere and hopefully similar wouldnt happen again.

It's not a problem with Leinsters pathway. It's a simple fact of sports, you need minutes to improve and you need quality minutes to reach international standard. Leinster decided that Molony was more worth those minutes and with one eye on Ryan they didn't want them blocking his pathway.

Look at just 3 players who has come through since those two. Ross Molony (Probably equal to Thornbury's level), James Ryan (Best 2nd row in Ireland and it's not really close) and Ryan Baird (A full international at 21, playing champions cup at 20/21). If Leinster had kept those two not only would they have blocked the pathway for those 3 but it's not even clear they'd have reached the level they have because it's possible if not probable they'd have been stuck behind Toner.
Ryan probably breaks through no matter what but if he does then its him and Toner in the second row, Beirne could maybe be third choice but even with all his additional exposure that he got in Wales and Limerick its only really the last 2 seasons he's moved ahead of Dev at which point Baird is already in the picture.
So if Leinster kept those two you're probably getting lesser versions of both of them, and you're denting the prospects of Baird and Molony.

So Beirne and Thornbury aren't examples of the Leinster development pathway going wrong, they're examples of it working exactly as it should. Leinster get the best of the best and the best of the rest improve the rest of Irish Rugby.

Pivac did a lot of skills work with Beirne. He was capable but raw. Leinster didn’t give him the skills development. Leinster has other priorities and have tended towards tighter locks.

Even the Scarlets hadn’t spotted how good he was going to get but they were ready to play a game that got the best out of him. Leinster weren’t going to adapt to him in the same way. Lock was a problem position for us development wise. Even at Scarlets he was underpowered, but they played such a fast game it didn’t matter too much.

[hugonaut]

It's an issue that players like Mick Kearney and Ian Nagle were given game time over a player as talented as Beirne.

It can't be as easy as to say 'ah well if Beirne had stayed at leinster he wouldn't have reached his current level', surely that's a major issue for the leinster development pathway if thats the case..

Anyway as I said I think Leinster have learned lessons from watching Beirne rise elsewhere and hopefully similar wouldnt happen again.

I don't remember anyone who was too disappointed when Beirne and Thornburry left. They were not marked out as elite players. Great that they have developed but retaining Beirne probably would have ruled out the Fardy deal or hampered the progression of some of the other cadre of rows. Would I have swapped Toner for Beirne before this season? Not a chance.

+1

I saw them both play A games and neither stood out as being any better than the likes of Mick Kearney, who was actually very good for us but ruined by injuries IIRC. Plus you've to weigh up what you need in terms of tighthead locks, lineout specialists, what band of contracts the players fit into etc etc.

My one criticism would be that I'd love another pathway for Irish players to leave to get games and then come back but it's not Leinster's fault that that didn't/doesn't exist, we'd loan players out more often/effectively if we were allowed to.

Ditto. Fully prepared to admit that I was wrong with Beirne, I never saw anything like this level of ability in him when he was with Leinster. If Oisin Dowling was to go on and have a massive season at test level in four/five years I'd be equally surprised ... that's the level of player I would have seen Beirne as when he was leaving.

[Ruckedtobits]

He's back.

At last, another well analysed and superbly written piece from the Demented Mole, which focusses on the Centre and Back-row travails of Leinster over the past two Seasons - in the midst of Law Changes with unanticipated consequences.

Oh how I miss such quality rugby writing.

https://dementedmole.com/

Leinster a Tale of two Units

[OTT]

MI any chance we could move this Beirne and Thornbury were missed discussion from quarterly to monthly.

Show Spoiler:

My mistake we are doing it monthly now

[mildlyinterested]

He's back.

At last, another well analysed and superbly written piece from the Demented Mole, which focusses on the Centre and Back-row travails of Leinster over the past two Seasons - in the midst of Law Changes with unanticipated consequences.

Oh how I miss such quality rugby writing.

https://dementedmole.com/

Leinster a Tale of two Units

[Ruckedtobits]

I don't remember anyone who was too disappointed when Beirne and Thornburry left. They were not marked out as elite players. Great that they have developed but retaining Beirne probably would have ruled out the Fardy deal or hampered the progression of some of the other cadre of rows. Would I have swapped Toner for Beirne before this season? Not a chance.

+1

I saw them both play A games and neither stood out as being any better than the likes of Mick Kearney, who was actually very good for us but ruined by injuries IIRC. Plus you've to weigh up what you need in terms of tighthead locks, lineout specialists, what band of contracts the players fit into etc etc.

My one criticism would be that I'd love another pathway for Irish players to leave to get games and then come back but it's not Leinster's fault that that didn't/doesn't exist, we'd loan players out more often/effectively if we were allowed to.

Ditto. Fully prepared to admit that I was wrong with Beirne, I never saw anything like this level of ability in him when he was with Leinster. If Oisin Dowling was to go on and have a massive season at test level in four/five years I'd be equally surprised ... that's the level of player I would have seen Beirne as when he was leaving.

ON the basis or just a couple of cameo appearances off the bench for Connacht late in the Season, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of Beirne-esque progress by Dowling. Deemed too small to make it as a second-row by Leinster when their backrow was already massively populated, he has taken his chances with Andy Friend's mob and been a good addition. Wish him continued success and look forward to his progress.

[mildlyinterested]

MI any chance we could move this Beirne and Thornbury were missed discussion from quarterly to monthly.

Show Spoiler:

My mistake we are doing it monthly now

I was happy to let the topic die

[mildlyinterested]

Injury list:

LH Prop(1)
Michael Milne - ???

TH Prop(1)
Tom Clarkson - knee

Hooker(0)

Lock(3)
James Ryan - concussion
Charlie Ryan - ???
Brian Deeny - knee

Backrow(6)
Dan Leavy - knee
Will Connors - knee
Max Deegan - knee
Caelan Doris - concussion
Scott Penny - hand
Martin Moloney - ???

Scrumhalf(2)
Jamie Gibson Park - hamstring
Rowan Osborne - hand

Outhalf(2)
Ciaran Frawley - shoulder
David Hawkshaw - ankle

Outside Backs(8)
Garry Ringrose - ankle
Conor O'Brien - knee
Jimmy O'Brien - hamstring
Tommy O'Brien - ankle
Adam Byrne - quad
Michael Silvester - ???
Aaron O'Sullivan - ???
Andrew Smith - ???