wixfjord wrote:Will be pretty interesting to see who we play at 15 in the Treviso game now.
Possibly between Kelleher and JOB?
I think you're dead right, and the spot is up for grabs - short term and long term. In the medium term [season long] RK will be back after RWC.
We have been blessed to have been served for two decades by two classic, dyed-in-the-wool fullbacks: Girv [13 pro seasons, 173 Leinster appearances, 82 Irish caps] and Rob [14+ pro seasons, 210+ Leinster appearances, 92+ Irish caps]. We've had a great couple of cameos in the interim from Isa and Joey Carbery.
However, Hansen with NZ and Damien McKenzie/Beauden Barett/Richie Mo'unga, and Mark McCall with Saracens and Owen Farrell/Alex Goode/Alex Lozowski are leading the way into the future in terms of how they coach their respective attacks, putting an emphasis on decision-making, passing distribution and kicking skills in backline play.
I think they have been heavily influenced by the dominant Queensland State of Origin side of the 2008-17, who found a way to field a team with Billy Slater [178cm/89kg | fullback], Darren Lockyer [178cm/84kg | fullback/five-eight] and then Cooper Cronk [178cm/89kg | halfback], Johnathan Thurston [179cm, 87kg | five-eighth] and Cameron Smith [185cm/90kg | hooker] in the same side.
With the exception of Smith [not a big man by any standard of pro rugby] none of them were over 180cm or 90kg, and Origin is as competitive and physical an environment as you will find in either code of rugby. There's a very strong argument that these players are all just great players, and Queensland were basically gifted with outstanding talent; I think you could look at the current Dubs team in Gaelic football with the same attitude. But I don't think that said argument precludes the idea that the way that they were coached both allowed them and provoked them to be great. The combination of talent and coaching with progressive thinking from both sides actually moved their entire code forward into a new era in terms of tactics and performance.
Returning to the Dubs as an example, their style of play has essentially retired the dominant 'puke' football tactic of the 00s. Some teams still do it, but they don't win All Irelands with it. There are some players who fit stereotypes [Brian Fenton is a classic midfielder], but the likes of Stephen Cluxton, Ciaran Kilkenny and Jack McCaffrey [and Paul Mannion to an extent, with his phenomenal level of tracking in 2017 and 2018] have redefined the potential of their positions under Jim Gavin.
I wasn't too familiar with the NRL when I started watching the Origin games, but it was clear that Queensland were playing something a lot more nuanced than their NSW opponents. They had smaller, more skillful and more intelligent players in key positions, and they made those attributes count. The other vital element was that they were outstanding competitors and brave guys, particularly Cameron Smith and Lockyer, who were both absolutely nails.
A similar revolution occurred under Bill Walsh and his West Coast Offense with the 49ers, which redefined the way American Football was played in the 1980s. There is no team in the NFL which doesn't use those 'finesse team' concepts these days, even if they are just a small part of the playbook. Rice, Montana, and Craig were all phenomenal players who doubtless would have done well in any side, but playing together under an inspired coach, they changed their whole code of football.
I think this RWC will be a watershed and that we will see continued law changes to the game over the next three years, because the physical toll is too high now. The next iteration of the game will see a change in backplay that will have less reliance on pure physical ability and position specificity, and more reliance on individual ball skills and decision-making. So I would not be surprised if down the line we see a backline that features something like a Hughie O'Sullivan at No9, a Harry Byrne at No10, a David Hawkshaw at No12 and a Ciaran Frawley or Jimmy O'Brien at No15 - four players who can make decisions, run, pass, kick and tackle. But all of them will have to become more vocal, more abrasive and tougher [including Hawkshaw and O'Sullivan, who come recommended in those regards]. I think Joey Carbery is a huge loss for us in that regard, but that the retention of Stuart Lancaster is a huge plus.