The Quickening. Last one under Rabo sponsorship.

[johng]

Time for the 4th annual Rabo end game analysis

Link to previous one which contains links to the others.

http://forum.leinsterfans.com/viewtopic ... 40#p514073

This year there are only 5 teams as the Scarlets have fallen away badly.

Playoffs therefore should include the 3 Provinces + either Glasgow or Ospreys

All teams have 2 home and 2 away games remaining v their other top 5 opponents.

Fri 7 Feb.....Ulster Rugby.....v.....Ospreys.....Ravenhill Stadium

Sun 23 Feb.....Ospreys.....v.....Munster Rugby.....Liberty Stadium

Sat 1 Mar.....Leinster Rugby.....v.....Glasgow Warriors.....Royal Dublin Society

Fri 28 Mar.....Glasgow Warriors.....v.....Ospreys.....Scotstoun Stadium

Sat 29 Mar.....Leinster Rugby.....v.....Munster Rugby.....AVIVA Stadium
HC QF
Fri 11 Apr.....Ospreys.....v.....Leinster Rugby.....Liberty Stadium

Sun 13 Apr.....Munster Rugby.....v.....Glasgow Warriors.....Thomond Park

18/19/20 Apr.....Glasgow Warriors.....v.....Ulster Rugby.....Scotstoun Stadium
HC SF
2/3/4 May.....Ulster Rugby.....v.....Leinster Rugby.....Ravenhill Stadium

Sat 10 May.....Munster Rugby.....v.....Ulster Rugby.....Thomond Park

IF we make it to a HC QF it will be in between Munster in LR and Ospreys in the Liberty. (tough run) Leaving only Ulster in Ravenhill (The week after the HC semis)

Basically we need to build a head of steam now and hope the others take points off each other.

Ulster have 3 big games in the last 3 rounds inc away trips to Glasgow and Munster.

Ospreys probably have the best run with their away games over at the end of March and only us in the Liberty to follow.

Munster next with similar on the away front and 2 home games after March.

[johng]

Other points of note.

Glasgow have 2 games in hand and are 10 points off the top. Not necessarily a bad thing for them as all 3 teams (Treviso and Embra) will almost certainly be out of the HC and Amlin giving them scope to play them without too much grief.

Ospreys will surely be affected by the mess in welsh Rugby at the moment.

There is little room for manoeuvre between us Ulster and Munster for the coveted top spot. We are 3 pts behind Munster and Ulster are 3 behind us.

Ulster have to go to Thomond. Munster have to come here and We have to go to Ravenhill.

[johng]

Also worth looking at the breakdown of remaining home and away games.

Munster….. 5H, 5A
Leinster…..6H, 4A
Ospreys…..5H, 5A
Ulster…..5H, 5A
Glasgow…..7H, 5A

[johng]

The good news. After the 20th of Feb we will only have 2 away games left.

The bad news. They are Ospreys and Ulster....

[[Jackass]]

Also worth looking at the breakdown of remaining home and away games.

Munster….. 5H, 5A
Leinster…..6H, 4A
Ospreys…..5H, 5A
Ulster…..5H, 5A
Glasgow…..7H, 5A

John, your obsessive following of all things Leinster and your analysis never fails to make a superb read full of interesting analysis, thanks for the effort you put into your posts.

The above is very interesting, that we've only 4 away games left and are in the position we're in. We should expect to win all 6 home games, all though assumptions can make fools of us all, but two of those away games are very winnable, Zebre and Cardiff, and two as tough as they come, Ulster and Ospreys...but if we can win at home (dealing blows to Munster and Glasgows challange along the way) and pick up two wins on the road, we're actually in very good shape to possibly top the table.

I think the rescheduled games will work against Glasgow, hopefully causing a slip up somewhere.

Should make for a very exciting run in. I think we've done well to hang in there to the position that we're in. Hopefully we can kick on from here now and put a bit of a run together in the league, especially winning those Glasgow and Munster games, and see how the rest of the fixtures pan out.

[neiliog93]

Think we'll probably lose away to Cardiff. I don't see us losing at home, although Glasgow will push us close like last year.

Still, 7 wins, 3 losses and say, 2 losing bonus points should give us a home semi-final with either first or second place in the league.

[CiaranIrl]

Think we'll probably lose away to Cardiff. I don't see us losing at home, although Glasgow will push us close like last year.

Still, 7 wins, 3 losses and say, 2 losing bonus points should give us a home semi-final with either first or second place in the league.

I think our poor attacking form could come back to haunt us in terms of not getting many 4 try bonus point victories. I'd predict we'll finish second or third.

[johng]

John, your obsessive following of all things Leinster and your analysis never fails to make a superb read full of interesting analysis, thanks for the effort you put into your posts.

Aww Thanks Jack. Makes the world a brighter place for several minutes.

[Ruckedtobits]

Great analysis and fascinating prospects.

Always been a big supporter of the points difference analysis as a pointer to the future. It makes interesting reading at this stage of competition (albeit, screwed for true predictability by Glasgow games out of sync)

Munster: +79
Leinster: +95
Ospreys: +77
Ulster: +74
Glasgow: +57 (pro rata this should be 69)
Dragons: -1
Scarlets: -27
Edinburgh: -43
Cardiff: -34
Treviso: -19
Zebre: -86
Connacht: -107

Tough looking conclusion for Connacht, but apart from that the only real anomaly is Treviso who have conceded the same number of points as Ospreys, but scored 100 points fewer.

From Leinster perspective, we may be getting (and giving) a lot of grief about our play, but we have best points differential by more than 15% and second highest tries scored in our league, 1 behind Munster. However, worst tries conceded in top half of the Table. Do statistics lie?

[Alternative Ulster]

Our pts diff is +68 though. Or am I looking at the wrong thing?

[paddyor]

Our pts diff is +68 though. Or am I looking at the wrong thing?

Yeah according to the pro12 site and Munster are 81. Still pretty good as IIRC before the Scarlets game at home we were nearly 30pts behind the top 3/4 in pts diff. I'm surprised it's that good tbh

[Mickado]

Think we'll probably lose away to Cardiff. I don't see us losing at home, although Glasgow will push us close like last year.

Still, 7 wins, 3 losses and say, 2 losing bonus points should give us a home semi-final with either first or second place in the league.

I think our poor attacking form could come back to haunt us in terms of not getting many 4 try bonus point victories. I'd predict we'll finish second or third.

We've got as many BP wins as the rest of the top 4 teams (3). Actually, we've more bonus points in total (6) than any other team in the league.

[johng]

Games between top 5 teams

Sun 23 Feb.....Ospreys.....v.....Munster Rugby.....Liberty Stadium

Sat 1 Mar.....Leinster Rugby.....v.....Glasgow Warriors.....Royal Dublin Society

Fri 28 Mar.....Glasgow Warriors.....v.....Ospreys.....Scotstoun Stadium

Sat 29 Mar.....Leinster Rugby.....v.....Munster Rugby.....AVIVA Stadium
HC QF
Fri 11 Apr.....Ospreys.....v.....Leinster Rugby.....Liberty Stadium

Sun 13 Apr.....Munster Rugby.....v.....Glasgow Warriors.....Thomond Park

18/19/20 Apr.....Glasgow Warriors.....v.....Ulster Rugby.....Scotstoun Stadium
HC SF
2/3/4 May.....Ulster Rugby.....v.....Leinster Rugby.....Ravenhill Stadium

Sat 10 May.....Munster Rugby.....v.....Ulster Rugby.....Thomond Park

Also worth looking at the breakdown of remaining home and away games.

Munster….. 4H, 5A
Leinster…..6H, 3A
Ospreys…..5H, 4A
Ulster…..4H, 5A
Glasgow…..6H, 5A

Quick update

Munster.....Zebre.....Ospreys (A).....Scarlets (A).....Treviso.....Leinster (A).....Glasgow.....Connacht (A).....Edinburgh (A).....Ulster

Leinster.....Dragons.....Blues (A).....Glasgow.....Zebre.....Munster.....Ospreys (A).....Treviso.....Ulster (A).....Edinburgh

Ulster.....Scarlets.....Treviso (A).....Dragons.....Edinburgh (A).....Blues (A).....Connacht.....Glasgow (A).....Leinster.....Munster (A)

Ospreys.....Treviso.....Munster.....Edinburgh (A).....Blues.....Glasgow (A).....Leinster.....Dragons (A).....Zebre (A).....Connacht

Glasgow.....Blues (A).....Dragons (A).....Leinster (A).....Scarlets.....Ospreys.....Munster (A).....Ulster.....Treviso (A).....Zebre (+ 2 home games v Embra and Treviso to be rescheduled)

[johng]

Munster. Top spot is theirs to lose. More away games than us though.

Ulster. They are still in Europe which will be their focus. That combined with a tough last few games makes me think they will struggle to be top 2.

Ospreys. Really handy run in (for a change) even their away game to the Dragons is in the Millennium Stadium. Only top 5 away game remaining is Glasgow. Problems in Welsh rugby may be a downside though

Glasgow. They could be top 4 but not top 2 IMHO.

Hard to see past Munster for a home SF. Leinster, Ulster and Ospreys vying for the other.

All about who holds the nerve now. A bad result here or there will drop someone out of contention.

[[Jackass]]

Well, it's a 5 horse race for 4 spots, 3 Irish, Ospreys and Glasgow.

Munster 3 ahead of us, but still need to visit Dublin. That game, as well as away to Ospreys and Ulster will defining for us.

Essentially, if we win our remaining games, we'll top the table imo. Easier said than done, but it's in our own hands.

[simonokeeffe]

Munster have 3 tough away games
We have two and 4 of those home games prime for bonus points

[neiliog93]

Well, it's a 5 horse race for 4 spots, 3 Irish, Ospreys and Glasgow.

Munster 3 ahead of us, but still need to visit Dublin. That game, as well as away to Ospreys and Ulster will defining for us.

Essentially, if we win our remaining games, we'll top the table imo. Easier said than done, but it's in our own hands.

Can't see us winning in Ravenhill, especially given the timing of the game. If we lose to Cardiff, Ospreys and Ulster but win all of our other games, we'll have 75-76 points, which may not be enough for a home semi. All of Leinster, Ulster, Ospreys and Glasgow will finish on 75-76 points if you go through their fixtures and add in the points for 'most likely result'. We can get up to around 80 if we beat Cardiff away, which will most likely guarantee us second place and a home semi-final, and seems very achievable. The battle between the other three for 3rd and 4th spot is incredibly tight though.


1.Munster (80-82)
2.Leinster (79-80)

After that, who knows?


The home semi against Glasgow for the third year in a row?

[simonokeeffe]

Well, it's a 5 horse race for 4 spots, 3 Irish, Ospreys and Glasgow.

Munster 3 ahead of us, but still need to visit Dublin. That game, as well as away to Ospreys and Ulster will defining for us.

Essentially, if we win our remaining games, we'll top the table imo. Easier said than done, but it's in our own hands.

Can't see us winning in Ravenhill, especially given the timing of the game. If we lose to Cardiff, Ospreys and Ulster but win all of our other games, we'll have 75-76 points, which may not be enough for a home semi. All of Leinster, Ulster, Ospreys and Glasgow will finish on 75-76 points if you go through their fixtures and add in the points for 'most likely result'. We can get up to around 80 if we beat Cardiff away, which will most likely guarantee us second place and a home semi-final, and seems very achievable. The battle between the other three for 3rd and 4th spot is incredibly tight though.


1.Munster (80-82)
2.Leinster (79-80)

After that, who knows?


The home semi against Glasgow for the third year in a row?

if we lose to cardiff we deserve to be broken down and sold for parts

[Degz]

Why would we lose in Cardiff!?

[rooster]

Why would we lose in Cardiff!?

The way they are playing you would have to fail to come out for the second half, even then it would be close !