Latest HEC prediction

[glenageary]

Toulouse has a great win against SF this weekend - big win and you simply can not bet against them at Edinburgh.

ASM lost to BO by 15-14, but it was in the basque country so - so so as they are still 2nd in the table.

Sarries lost to Quins also, but technically it was a home game in twickers and with 83k watching it was a record club game - beating our game against Munster in the semis. Big lost but they are still safe in 2nd in the table.

So my QF betting is, in order of the games being played:

Toulouse beat Edinburgh
Leinster beat Cardiff

Ulster beat Munster
Sarries beat ASM

my SF betting is:

Sarries vs Leinster in Twickers (Wembley may not be available) with Leinster winning

Ulster vs Toulouse in Aviva, with Toulouse winning (I hope not - but remember Toulouse have last year to stand to them)

my final betting is obvious: you know who

[[Jackass]]

I'd be very happy with that.

I think Cardiff will still be a massive challenge in the QF. Like Ospreys last week, this is all they've got to play for, and even minus one or two players, they will treat this as a season cup final, so anything less than 100% concentration will cost us.

Considering the events of Thomond Park last night, that home loss to Ospreys could well be one of the best things to happen to us.

In a semi, I really don't fancy Clermont away. Saracens away is a seriously tough match too, but I just feel like we've been there and done it away to Saracens, and they have a more limited squad than Clermont, so would be the better of two very tough possible semis. But should we get there, that's a season defining game, no doubt.

As for a final, I'd prefer to avoid Munster on the basis of how much they CAN (but dont always DO) raise their game against us.

The final in Thomond being an example last season, probably the best game they've played in years, fueled by a desperation of preventing a Leinster double on their own patch. A similar mind-set would make them tough to beat in Twickenham...

Other options are Tolouse or Ulster...both would be tough, but would prefer Ulster, who would have a big chance if playing a semi at home...

This is the best time of year though, every game is massive, and hope we can make it through each week!

[scrum25]

Toulouse has a great win against SF this weekend - big win and you simply can not bet against them at Edinburgh.

ASM lost to BO by 15-14, but it was in the basque country so - so so as they are still 2nd in the table.

Sarries lost to Quins also, but technically it was a home game in twickers and with 83k watching it was a record club game - beating our game against Munster in the semis. Big lost but they are still safe in 2nd in the table.

So my QF betting is, in order of the games being played:

Toulouse beat Edinburgh
Leinster beat Cardiff

Ulster beat Munster
Sarries beat ASM

my SF betting is:

Sarries vs Leinster in Twickers (Wembley may not be available) with Leinster winning

Ulster vs Toulouse in Aviva, with Toulouse winning (I hope not - but remember Toulouse have last year to stand to them)

my final betting is obvious: you know who

I think asm will beat sarries which i fear could be the end for us assuming we can get over CRdiff. They will be no walkover.


Ulster have a real chance of beating Munster but i think they will just fall short. Definitely they will need ferris fit and hope that munster missing one of poc or ryan


If munster win i fancy them to meet asm in final with asm to win

If ulster win i fancy all french final

[tackle-bag]

The Sarries v. Clermont game will be determined primarily by reference to the set-piece in my view. Somewhat surprisingly, the Clermont scrum has disintegrated or at least faltered this season (including last Saturday against Biarritz) whereas Saracens have looked more comfortable in that department. In terms of the line-out, there's no doubting but that Clermont have superior lock forwards (overall) in Hines, Pierre and Cudmore but guys like Botha and Kruis have made their names in the line-out. I think the hosts might just knick it but it will be very close.

[TrapperChamonix]

Bonnaire (though I despise him) is also an exceptional Lineout operator.

Saracens missing Saul, Browne and Burger (I think all 3 out for the rest of the season) seriously weakens them.

Hard to choose a winner in that QF

[Homer]

Munster V Ulster: Not a chance Ulster will beat Munster in thomond. I would give them a chance if it was a neutral venue but not a home game for munster. Ulster not quite their yet as contenders particularly if Ferris is out. Munster will be different team this weekend obviously with returning players but also a lot more motivation. They were appalling last weekend but have it in them to raise it. Unfortunately Ulster to come up short in this one.

Edinburgh V Toulouse: Toulouse should win this one handy enough but (and its a big but) you never know what team will turn up. As usual with them at this time of the year their injuries are mounting. Still they should just about shade it.

Munster V Toulouse in Lansdowne.

Leinster V Cardiff: Will be tougher than we expect but we will have enough to win.

Saracens V Clermont: As with the Toulouse game depends which Clermont team turns up. They should have enough to beat Saracens (I think they are over hyped) but I reckon they are going to choke again.

Saracens V Leinster in London somewhere.

Will go with a Leinster V Munster Final.

[Ruckedtobits]

Tempted to agree with scrum25 that ASM will beat Sarries. Clermont had a very tough encounter last Saturday against BO but made the extraordinary decision to play Debaty at loose head and he was taken apart by a young French prop with a Polish name called Watremez - remember the name - and were poor in the line out beacuse of bad throwing by Kayser who had four crooked throws, Rougerie & Fafana looked dangerous but were very well marshalled by a Biarritz backling who are playing for their lives and looking like they will suvive in the Top 14m unlike their deadly Basque rivals Bayonne.

Vern Cotter learned a tough lesson on Saturday last about the team that wants it more and it was evident by the ASM player reactions at the final whistle that know that they must "be up" for every game from here to the end of the Season. Mark McCall might also have learned that the performance of his mid-field in the 6N doesn't count for anything once it's over. They will have a big defensive day at the weekend.

Overall this game could be about Morgan Parra who is a major doubt having departed on Saturday with 20 mins to go. If he plays, they may not need James as kicker and Skrelam Fofana & Rougerie would be able to handle the Sarries mid-field. However if James is wearing No 10, I'd fancy Sarries.

Toulouse look a no brainer in Edinburgh, but could Brads pull another coup and beat the big boys. If he can, this competition is wide open for Leinster.

Leinster must desperately focus on what they need to do to control the game they want to play. With Roberts gone and mayhem about who fills the No 10 shirt Cardiff have no right to have a prayerm but every team in a Q/F has a chance and for Cardiff this is there only chance this Season.

Agree with the overall view that Munster at home will be too good for an Ferris-less Ulster. However, the front-row battle could be good value if there is a referee who has bottle!

Big fear this weekend is that refereeing decisions are going to be the key talking point

[ceemec]

Us to beat Cardiff. I don't take Cardiff lightly and anything can happen in a one off game (Northampton in Biarritz will always be the cautionary tale) but logic cannot be ignored. Cardiff are without Warburton and Roberts. Their in turmoil. Gethin Jenkins is recovering from an injury and hasn't played since the France game. Bradley Davies has 1 game in 2 months. We should win by 10-15 points but HEC, body on the line performances make me think that it will be closer. Leinster by 8.

Saracens to beat Clermont. Neither side looked amazing last week so this one comes down to the venue. Clermont simply don't play as well away from home. They lost 2/3 in the pool stages, beating only Aironi on the road. They're 5/11 for wins on the road in the T14 and have failed to win in places like Bayonne and Lyon. Different animal when they leave home. It will be tight but I think Saracens can dog it out and Farrell can squeeze Saracens home. Saracens by 5.

Toulouse to beat Edinburgh. They'll give them much more of a rattle than one would think, I reckon. Toulouse play a fast, loose game which will actually help Edinburgh. But class should win through. Toulouse by 9.

Munster to win. Ferris is a massive loss. No player's absence could have a bigger impact on the game. With Munster's big players on the way back and their big game experience, they'll have too much in the tank. Munster by 10.

Wouldn't want to call any of the semi finals if those results came to pass.

[Rogocoko]

Why might not Wembley be available?

[johng]

Why might not Wembley be available?

Association Football apparently.

[Rogocoko]

Why might not Wembley be available?

Association Football apparently.

I just got a little sick in my mouth....

[Hornet]

Why might not Wembley be available?

Association Football apparently.

I just got a little sick in my mouth....

Conjecture on the Saracens fans forum suggests that if they make it to the semi, one of four venues may come into play.
The Ricoh Stadium, Coventry. Saracens played their HEC semi against Munster there a few years back.
Milton Keynes Stadium. Richard Hill's last game was played there. (If there is a hell on earth, Milton Keynes is it).
Madjeski Stadium, Reading. Reading are away that weekend, and it's about 40 miles from Watford.
Twickenham. London Irish played Toulouse there, in their HEC semi, on the same weekend as the Saracens Munster game.
All pie in the sky at the moment though. Both teams have to get past this weekend first.

[desperado]

Tempted to agree with scrum25 that ASM will beat Sarries. Clermont had a very tough encounter last Saturday against BO but made the extraordinary decision to play Debaty at loose head and he was taken apart by a young French prop with a Polish name called Watremez - remember the name - and were poor in the line out beacuse of bad throwing by Kayser who had four crooked throws, Rougerie & Fafana looked dangerous but were very well marshalled by a Biarritz backling who are playing for their lives and looking like they will suvive in the Top 14m unlike their deadly Basque rivals Bayonne.

Vern Cotter learned a tough lesson on Saturday last about the team that wants it more and it was evident by the ASM player reactions at the final whistle that know that they must "be up" for every game from here to the end of the Season. Mark McCall might also have learned that the performance of his mid-field in the 6N doesn't count for anything once it's over. They will have a big defensive day at the weekend.

Overall this game could be about Morgan Parra who is a major doubt having departed on Saturday with 20 mins to go. If he plays, they may not need James as kicker and Skrelam Fofana & Rougerie would be able to handle the Sarries mid-field. However if James is wearing No 10, I'd fancy Sarries.

Toulouse look a no brainer in Edinburgh, but could Brads pull another coup and beat the big boys. If he can, this competition is wide open for Leinster.

Leinster must desperately focus on what they need to do to control the game they want to play. With Roberts gone and mayhem about who fills the No 10 shirt Cardiff have no right to have a prayerm but every team in a Q/F has a chance and for Cardiff this is there only chance this Season.
Agree with the overall view that Munster at home will be too good for an Ferris-less Ulster. However, the front-row battle could.
be good value if there is a referee who has bottle!



Didn't see the BO ASM game. Sounds like ASM had lineout probelems? I think they've been v poor at setpiece this season in key games and I fancy Sarries to profit in that area.




Big fear this weekend is that refereeing decisions are going to be the key talking point

[desperado]

Sorry. Problem submitting with kindle. My comment is underlined. Tacklebag - I swear I hadn't seen your post - agree fully setpiece key for Sarries

[Dexter]

On the possible venues were Sarries and Leinster to make the semi: can a semi be played at the the same stadium as the final? I know it happened before in LR but that was a long time ago. Just wondering.

[nc6000]

On the possible venues were Sarries and Leinster to make the semi: can a semi be played at the the same stadium as the final? I know it happened before in LR but that was a long time ago. Just wondering.

I hope so or else we could have an issue next season with the final scheduled for Lansdowne. I'm presuming we plan to move the bigger of the home HEC pool games there along with any potential home quarter or semi finals.

If a semi can't be played in the same stadium as the final then we could end up not being able to use either the RDS or Lansdowne for a potential home semi.

[Degz]

Association Football apparently.

I just got a little sick in my mouth....

Conjecture on the Saracens fans forum suggests that if they make it to the semi, one of four venues may come into play.
The Ricoh Stadium, Coventry. Saracens played their HEC semi against Munster there a few years back.
Milton Keynes Stadium. Richard Hill's last game was played there. (If there is a hell on earth, Milton Keynes is it).
Madjeski Stadium, Reading. Reading are away that weekend, and it's about 40 miles from Watford.
Twickenham. London Irish played Toulouse there, in their HEC semi, on the same weekend as the Saracens Munster game.
All pie in the sky at the moment though. Both teams have to get past this weekend first.

I would very much like Leinster to play in Coventry, please and thank-you.

[lineens weegie army]

On the possible venues were Sarries and Leinster to make the semi: can a semi be played at the the same stadium as the final? I know it happened before in LR but that was a long time ago. Just wondering.

I'm fairly sure before the 2010 QF's (when Stade Francais travelled to Toulouse) it was stated that they couldn't use the same venue as the final - and that Stade would likely return to Toulouse for the semi?

Of course, none of that mattered since Toulouse beat them and hosted you guys in the semi, but sure that was said at the time?

Means any 'home' semi-final for you guys next season would need to be played at Thomond... Unless you were allowed back into Croke Park?



(I don't know if the same applies to quarter finals - but it certainly doesn't apply to pool games, with Edinburgh having played at the final venue in 2008-09)

[berniemac67]

On the possible venues were Sarries and Leinster to make the semi: can a semi be played at the the same stadium as the final? I know it happened before in LR but that was a long time ago. Just wondering.

I'm fairly sure before the 2010 QF's (when Stade Francais travelled to Toulouse) it was stated that they couldn't use the same venue as the final - and that Stade would likely return to Toulouse for the semi?

Of course, none of that mattered since Toulouse beat them and hosted you guys in the semi, but sure that was said at the time?

Means any 'home' semi-final for you guys next season would need to be played at Thomond... Unless you were allowed back into Croke Park?



(I don't know if the same applies to quarter finals - but it certainly doesn't apply to pool games, with Edinburgh having played at the final venue in 2008-09)

no problem, thomond is our fortress

[johng]

On the possible venues were Sarries and Leinster to make the semi: can a semi be played at the the same stadium as the final? I know it happened before in LR but that was a long time ago. Just wondering.

I hope so or else we could have an issue next season with the final scheduled for Lansdowne. I'm presuming we plan to move the bigger of the home HEC pool games there along with any potential home quarter or semi finals.

If a semi can't be played in the same stadium as the final then we could end up not being able to use either the RDS or Lansdowne for a potential home semi.

As far as I am aware there is no issue playing any game in the same ground as any other game.

1/ A semi cannot be played in the "home" ground of the home team, but must be played in a venue with a capacity of more than 20000 "in the home country of" that team.

2/ The ERC have to approve the ground.

EG. Not sure how Clermont have their possible semi in Bordeaux on the opposite side of the Country, but I suspect it is down to the ERC.