A whiff of Cordite

[hugonaut]

https://www.rte.ie/sport/rugby/2021/021 ... eyor-belt/

Donal Lenihan making a pitch to change the Provincial domination by Leinster? Or is he just filling space?

Phil Space.

As of 11/02/21, here's how many minutes of gametime the Leinster outhalves have had for their province this season:

Harry Byrne: 456 mins
Ross Byrne: 384 mins
Johnny Sexton:182 mins

I have a huge amount of time for both Tremenjus and Birch, but from this report of a podcast [who knew that that counted as news?] it sounds like neither man was really interrogated about their ideas. They were just asked for an opinion, with no follow-up of questions that those opinions prompt. Maybe it's just me, but that's quite unsatisfying.

For example, the shibboleth about getting selected in European matches before being in international squads: this is received wisdom, but is it based on lucid reasoning?

Essentially they seem to be saying that the Pro14 literally doesn't count towards how you are perceived as a professional rugby player by supposedly the most knowledgable and influential rugby minds in the country, the national team coaching staff. Am I overstating that as an argument and twisting their words, or am I just boiling down their opinions to get to the essentials?

We've only played two European games this year [two having been cancelled]. HB was selected for one of them but got injured in the warm-up and didn't play. Does that mean he can't be selected for Ireland? Is selection that stratified and hierarchical? Because I think that is seriously limited thinking.

[mildlyinterested]

Hugh Cahill is the host of that podcast and is frankly awful.

[leinsterforever]

If the issue is that Ireland only has 4 sides to pick from when France have 14 and England 12/13 maybe the solution is to consider for selection IQ players at non-Irish Pro14 teams. It could widen the player base and potentially strengthen the league, and there wouldn't be much risk of top players being tempted away because clubs wouldn't have the money.

[riocard911]

So Lenihan on the one hand lauds the "winning culture" in Exeter as the cause of Hogg's and Grey's improved performances at Test level, but still wants to remove young talent from the "winning culture" at Leinster and farm them out not just to the other provinces but to the Prem and the Top 14? Am I the only one who can see the contradiction here? If Tremenjous gets his way there won't be any "winning culture" in Leinster anymore or at any of the other provinces either!! Harry Byrne needs to be parachuted into national camp and given the starting 10 jersey vs Italy. End of problem. End of hysterical discussion. Give my head peace, in ainm Dé!

p.s. How much senior team experience did Jalibert and Ntamack have before being capped by the French national team? Circa 15 and 20 appearances for Bordeaux and Toulouse respectively - in Ntamack's case many of them not even at outhalf. But never mind, it seems the IRFU insists on learning the wrong lessons and continuing to resist trusting youth, even though such a course - "mol an óige, agus tiocfaidh sí" - has proven to work at the other top tier nations.

[Blue not red blood]

Hugh Cahill is the host of that podcast and is frankly awful.

Enough said.Opinionated with no facts.
As an aside Ruby destroyed him on Sunday at Leopardstown. Cahill made another factual error and Ruby called him out, saying it wasnt the first one of the weekend

[Ruckedtobits]

So Lenihan on the one hand lauds the "winning culture" in Exeter as the cause of Hogg's and Grey's improved performances at Test level, but still wants to remove young talent from the "winning culture" at Leinster and farm them out not just to the other provinces but to the Prem and the Top 14? Am I the only one who can see the contradiction here? If Tremenjous gets his way there won't be any "winning culture" in Leinster anymore or at any of the other provinces either!! Harry Byrne needs to be parachuted into national camp and given the starting 10 jersey vs Italy. End of problem. End of hysterical discussion. Give my head peace, in ainm Dé!

p.s. How much senior team experience did Jalibert and Ntamack have before being capped by the French national team? Circa 15 and 20 appearances for Bordeaux and Toulouse respectively - in Ntamack's case many of them not even at outhalf. But never mind, it seems the IRFU insists on learning the wrong lessons and continuing to resist trusting youth, even though such a course - "mol an óige, agus tiocfaidh sí" - has proven to work at the other top tier nations.

To my mind the fundamental flaw in the concept propounded by Lenihan & Jackman (I haven't listened to the podcast) is that the choices available to Galtie & Farrell were comparable. They were in fact radically different.

Galtie and his coaching cohort were appointed by the President of the FFR to "prepare a team of which the Federation can be proud, to represent our Nation in the 2023 Rugby World Cup". At that point, France had not won the 6N for a decade but France had won the U.20 World Cup and the U.20 6N in successive years. Galtie et al were given a clean sheet and a four-year pathway to possible success.

On the other hand, although Farrell's contract period as Ireland's Head Coach has never been formally confirmed in public by David Nucifora, it has always been assumed that the initial time-line was a two year period up to the end of the 2021 Summer Tour. When formally appointed in the aftermath of a disappointing 2019 World Cup, Farrell had been identified a year earlier in the 'golden afterglow' of a season immediately post the 2018 Grand Slam amid strong hints from Joe Schmidt that he would soon step away from the role.

Farrell inherited a strong experienced squad, amply supplied with a potential stream of future stars from the Cullen / Lancaster finishing school in Leinster (and recently crowned European Champions) supplemented by the unexpected successes of two Ireland U.20 Squads who had exceeded expectations. A very different background to Galtie's job description.

Nucifora's expectation was that Farrell would quickly relegate Joe's 'One More Year' to the bad memories' folder and resume the progression at national level that saw Ireland placed at No 1 in the World Rugby standings a month before RWC2019.

We know now how that Plan progressed. Certainly, the past 18 months have been a disappointment and, almost certainly, it hasn't all been caused by Farrell. Unfortunately, most professional coaching roles in international sports are not determined by the effort or intent invested. Results are the sole currency when it comes to survival in the role.

Farrell probably has 6 matches in which to preserve his international role with Ireland. He doesn't have to win them all but he certainly has to win a good few important ones to survive. Next Sunday is the first in that list and a win would give his chances of coaching Ireland at the 2023 RWC a big boost.

[Dexter]

Hugh Cahill is the host of that podcast and is frankly awful.

Enough said.Opinionated with no facts.

Beat me to it. Explains everything.

[Morf]

Hugh Cahill is the host of that podcast and is frankly awful.

Impressed by his conviction to let the public know that most of the rugby content he's reporting/providing background to is unworthy of their time/attention.

[mildlyinterested]

Hugh Cahill is the host of that podcast and is frankly awful.

Impressed by his conviction to let the public know that most of the rugby content he's reporting/providing background to is unworthy of their time/attention.

unfortunately fairly standard from many so called rugby journos/fans.

[neiliog93]

Hugh Cahill is the host of that podcast and is frankly awful.

Insufferable waffler who smuggles his own analysis in as main commentator, which is a terrible error. Far less knowledgeable, insightful, funny and generally good at his job than he thinks he is.

[ronk]

So Lenihan on the one hand lauds the "winning culture" in Exeter as the cause of Hogg's and Grey's improved performances at Test level, but still wants to remove young talent from the "winning culture" at Leinster and farm them out not just to the other provinces but to the Prem and the Top 14? Am I the only one who can see the contradiction here? If Tremenjous gets his way there won't be any "winning culture" in Leinster anymore or at any of the other provinces either!! Harry Byrne needs to be parachuted into national camp and given the starting 10 jersey vs Italy. End of problem. End of hysterical discussion. Give my head peace, in ainm Dé!

p.s. How much senior team experience did Jalibert and Ntamack have before being capped by the French national team? Circa 15 and 20 appearances for Bordeaux and Toulouse respectively - in Ntamack's case many of them not even at outhalf. But never mind, it seems the IRFU insists on learning the wrong lessons and continuing to resist trusting youth, even though such a course - "mol an óige, agus tiocfaidh sí" - has proven to work at the other top tier nations.

Who did Ntamack replace? Thats not disconnected from why Ireland are doing something different in 1 position.

Ireland brought in young players, just in other positions or at different times.

[riocard911]

If I remember correctly, Ntamack was behind Zack Holmes and Thomas Ramos for the ten jersey at Toulouse, when he was given the national jersey in that position.

[Dave Cahill]

Ramos, no - Toulouse use him mainly at full back unless they're really stuck

Holmes, yes (ish) - Ntamack had a significant number of starts at 10 in the Top14 and Europe as well as a significant number of starts at 12 alongside Holmes in the season and a half leading up to his debut for France

[ronk]

It was rhetorical, and I was talking about Ireland.

Carbery came into the Ireland team very quickly after breaking into the Leinster team. We know it happens when the timing is right.

[Dave Cahill]

There are a couple of things with France regarding young players in general and outhalves in particular that have to be taken into account.

Firstly, they have 14 clubs playing 350-odd domestic games, we have four playing 80-odd - thats a lot more opportunities from the get go to experiment.

Secondly, a number of those games in France are less pressured than the ones Irish teams play in - not because of the relative strengths of the leagues or anything like that, but because of the differing levels of expectation that the teams operate under. Leinster, Munster, and to an extent Ulster, are expected to win every domestic match, home or away, regardless of injuries, player availability or time of year. Thats not the case in France. Even in Europe, French teams field less experienced, shall we say, sides away from home. If an Irish province deliberately picked a less than full strength team for a European match, even a dead rubber, there would be howls.

Thirdly, and I'd like to quote the late Anthony H Wilson here. When he first saw Joy Division on stage at a band night in Manchester, he commented "the other bands were up there because they wanted to be there, Joy Division were there because they had no f%~king choice". Who else apart from Ntamack and Jalibert could France select? Trinh-Duc? Lopez? Ramos? You'd have to travel a fair distance along the Irish depth chart to find outhalves at that level over the last 20 years - and even then you'd get a clip around the ear and be told to keep moving by Ians Keatley or Madigan! For the most part, over that 20 years, France have been weak at Out Half. Weak in terms of quality, weak in terms of selectorial policy. Merceron, Michelak, some scrumhalves, and the three I've mentioned above have been the French options. - we've had ROG, Sexton, Jackson, Madigan - two of whom are among the best to ever play the position in Ireland and Europe.


We have a tendancy in Ireland to judge player development progress by only looking at the players with double digits on their backs - but if you look at guys like Furlong, Porter, O'Sullivan, O'Toole, Baird, Ryan, Coombes, O'Connor, vd Flier, Doris - as soon as they demonstrated any kind of form at provincial level they were in Carton House. Even at that, look at Ringrose, Henshaw, Carbury, Stockdale, Larmour - all promoted to the national side in their very early 20s.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Agree with a lot of that Dave but I think the one thing about pushing guys now is that we are weak in certain areas right now and we’ve been poor for two years so it’s not like young guys would be jumping the queue ahead of top class players or breaking into a team that’s going well.

I also wouldn’t expect new guys to transform us, it’s more that it’s worth the risk/short term pain for the long term gain.

I agree with you though and I’d be cautious. For example I wouldn’t have wanted Harry Byrne to be parachuted in this weekend, but I think in the circumstances that he should be brought in for week three. I’d also have been up for more experimenting in November because it was such strange time/tournament so was a bit of a free shot.

I can’t imagine that Farrell et al are too thrilled about picking certain players right now so I’d say they’re just as eager to bring the young lads through but want to do it the right way. Unfortunately I think the team is in a kind of limbo at the moment where we’ve loads of young guys who aren’t quite ready, a few guys on the verge of being past it, and some who are nearing their prime but have stalled a little bit. I can see a new wave of players making the team click but have no idea whether that’ll be in two weeks or 18 months.

[riocard911]

Great post, Dave. So if Johnny is our Ian Curtis, who in the Ireland team is Peter Hook? PO'M?

[backrower8]

Hugh Cahill is the host of that podcast and is frankly awful.

[backrower8]

We have a tendancy in Ireland to judge player development progress by only looking at the players with double digits on their backs - but if you look at guys like Furlong, Porter, O'Sullivan, O'Toole, Baird, Ryan, Coombes, O'Connor, vd Flier, Doris - as soon as they demonstrated any kind of form at provincial level they were in Carton House. Even at that, look at Ringrose, Henshaw, Carbury, Stockdale, Larmour - all promoted to the national side in their very early 20s.

Add to that Leavy and Kelleher in recent years and Dillane, Henderson, Rob K, Luke Fitz, Darce, Drico, Murray and Earls...in their time

It points to the fact that a total bottle-neck at half-back has developed, caused by blind loyalty (Murray) and also fear (Sexton) in the last 3 seasons, despite shocking losses of form and injury (Murray) and general ageing affecting performance and athleticism (Sexton) .

The fact that one player is the greatest (Murray) and the other arguably the greatest in their positions for Ireland ever, and also world-class until recently, probably affected the managements' mind-sets.

In addition, there is a drop-off to the next level of players in both positions - but you don't close it by persisting with fading greats.

At 9, the treatment of Cooney has been simply ridiculous by both Joe and Farrell. The fact that Sexton probably would not like a Petit General (other than Murray) inside him probably also did for Cooney, so far.

At 10 we have had the different Jackson and Carbery issues, but right across 2020 (admittedly a disrupted, unconventional year) we had chances to mix things up more, to roll the dice, since RWC ended with Carbery banjaxed, Carty jettisoned and Sexton 34 and 1/2 yo, but Farrell wasn't strong enough either to take the Captaincy off Johnny or move him, aged 35!, to the finisher role as #22. Leo was also wrong to leave the Leinster captaincy with Johnny this season.

Farrell and Leo are supposed to be strong characters, but they both looked the other way on Johnny's Captaincy, no coincidence. Farrell also hasn't been taken to our hearts yet so he would be careful as an Englishman as regards demoting an Irish sporting icon.

What is it that led to Johnny holding all the cards aged 35? I have no doubt that Johnny's legendary stubborn nature has become toxic as he resists the fading of the light while also setting his sites on the Lions Tour #3,100 Irish Caps (he now needs to tour with Ireland in the Summer or play in the AIs to get there), more Silverware & his legacy. If he had been demoted and/or dropped, he would stink the place out.

How else do we explain where we are with 35 yo King Johnny as Captain of everything and messrs Burns and Byrne (15 caps between them, mainly as benchers) hoping to paper over the cracks on Sunday with 6 caps combined in our pair of 9s?

We are in a similar pickle at loosehead and hooker. In fairness at loosehead, nobody saw Jack Mc's decline coming so quickly or Killer's injuries, but why are we back to Ed Byrne over Eric O'Sullivan already? At hooker we held on to Best for far too long and we have backed off Ronan Kelleher far too quickly. We need to get Dan Sheehan through at Leinster asap so he can join the Irish ranks.

Sexton and Murray have lots to offer for another year (Sexton) or two (Murray) as finishers in the #21 and #22 shirts for club and country, based on match-by-match form. If either of them can't fill that role gracefully then they should be permanently retired.

Sexton sucking up all the Tier 1 starting minutes and Captaincy roles also stunts other players, future-Captains and squads from their natural and necessary development. Our playing style cannot evolve while he is the starter and, because of his domineering nature, neither squad's culture can evolve properly while Johnny reigns.

This has been a slow car crash that's now in it's 3rd season. A number of people, also his admirers over the years, have said to me that they would now just prefer if Sexton retired at the end of the season. I agree.

Again, I have great regard and memories for 2 of the all-time Irish greats, both world class in their day. But the needs of the team that represents this island supersedes those of individual players and the longer we delay the longer the rebuild will be.

[wixfjord]

How else do we explain where we are with 35 yo King Johnny as Captain of everything and messrs Burns and Byrne (15 caps between them, mainly as benchers) hoping to paper over the cracks on Sunday

Because even at 35 and rapidly declining, Sexton is still far more likely than Burns or Byrne to lead us to a win over a tier 1 side.

If he was fit this weekend he would be starting, and rightly so.