day 1 aintree festival

[beaker1]

thursday day1 @ aintree




2:00 Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O Novices Hurdle

Ten of the last 13 winners contested the JCB Triumph Hurdle, in fact, since this race was elevated to Grade 1 status, all eight winners came here having either won or been placed at the Cheltenham Festival so that meeting has to be our starting point. The three Triumph representatives are Vasco Du Ronceray, Rolling Star and Ruacana who finished fifth, sixth and seventh respectively but the only winner or runner-up from the Festival taking its chance is the Fred Winter winner, Flaxen Flare. Fitted with blinkers for the first time on that occasion, it will be interesting to see if that novelty has worn off but he did run out a decisive winner having been hacking over his rivals before the home turn.

The other notable pattern since the upgrade to a Grade 1 race is that the favourite has won seven of the eight runnings. This has coincided with the elimination of the 5lbs penalty that was previously carried by Grade 1 winners. Of today’s field only Ruacana would have previously had a Grade 1 penalty for his fortuitous victory in the Finale Hurdle at Chepstow when the leader fell and hampered the runner-up. It is nearly two decades since the winner of that juvenile race went on to Triumph Hurdle success but five of the last 13 winners of the Anniversary Hurdle had finished in the first four. Another notable guide (even more so in fact) is the Grade 2 Finesse Hurdle in which Rolling Star beat Irish Saint, a race that has provided seven of the last 13 winners. Irish Saint then went on to win the Adonis Hurdle beating Vasco Du Ronceray and L’Unique into second and third, and two recent winners of that Kempton Grade 2 race (Binocular and Zarkandar) followed up here. Vasco Du Ronceray had earlier finished second toFar West at Cheltenham in November, a race in which three of the last ten winners of this prize ran in.

Of the last 23 winners all but four had won over hurdles at least twice which is against the once-raced Hefner (won his only start over hurdles by a neck at Huntingdon last month) and the maiden, Zamdy Man. Fifteen of the last 18 winners had won or been placed in Graded company earlier in that season which is another negative for that pair as well as Bob’s World and Runswick Royal.

Fillies have fared well from low representation and all three winning fillies in the last 19 years bypassed the Cheltenham Festival which is what L’Unique is also attempting to achieve. She is also trained by Alan King who has won three of the last six renewals and she won at the course earlier in the season. She is also a French-bred like six of the last 14 winners as are Irish Saint, Rolling Star and Vasco Du Ronceray.

Short List

Irish Saint

L’Unique

Rolling Star

Conclusion

Being trained by Alan King (three wins in the last six years), a filly (three winners in 19 years from low representation) and a French-bred then L’UNIQUE makes the short list and could be a little each-way value against those with stringer form credentials. She has something to find with IRISH SAINT on Adonis Hurdle form but she is a course winner. Both bypassed Cheltenham with a view to being saved for this race and if Irish Saint proves successful then he will be the third Adonis winner in six years to follow up here for the Paul Nicholls yard whose previous two winners of this race were French imports as is Irish Saint who also contested the Finesse Hurdle like seven of the last 13 winners so he would just about shade it as far as being the strongest trends horse. It was tough selecting between Nicky Henderson’s two ex-French horses for the final pick but as they had been contesting the right races but as Vasco Du Ronceray has looked a weak finisher more than once and ROLLING STAR won the Finesse which has been the clear strongest guide outside of the Triumph then the latter receives the final vote. He looked very classy in the Finesse lengthening well to beat Irish Saint but did not appear to enjoy the testing conditions and hustle and bustle of the Triumph but this looks more up his street. Flaxen Flare won the Fred Winter well but this has not been a race that the Irish have a great record in and will blinkers work for a second time?



2:30 Betfred Bowl



Naturally the Gold Cup has to be the starting point and especially now that this is a Grade 1 race having been elevated to such status three years ago. Of the 29 winners, 19 ran in the Gold Cup so that is an over two-thirds strike rate from less than 50% representation. That said, it has proven wise to take on horses that endured a very hard race in the blue riband and I would class this year’s fourth, The Giant Bolster, in that category as he was in there pitching two out before only giving way on the run to the final fence so I would question whether he has left his race behind him. The fifth, Cape Tribulation, didn’t have such as hard a race beaten 22 lengths as he was also given a creeping ride unlike The Giant Bolster who was always to the fore though on that ground it would still have been hard enough. Wayward Prince (last of the seven finishers) was allowed to come home in his own time once his chance had gone but the obvious one is Silviniaco Conti who was going as well as anything until falling three out so he was spared that lung-bursting final effort and, given tired the 1-2-3-4 finished on the ever-softening ground, I have to believe he would have (a) gone close and (b) his exit means he has more left for this Grade 1 race than would have otherwise been the case if he had finished the Gold Cup.

The other very notable trend is the high success rate of front runners. For 12 of the 29 runnings to have been won by the early leader is quite a feat. It could be that the rank outsider Whodoyouthink will try and make all as he has tried as such in four of his last six starts but whether his lack of class in comparison to his rivals (he has at least 23lbs to find with everything bar Wayward Prince) can allow him to that for long, I have my doubts. If he is outclassed then maybe it will be Quito De La Roque who leads as those new tactics proved so successful last time when he made all to win over what many thought was an inadequate 2m4f beating Roi Du Mee who has franked the form since.

Outside of the Gold Cup, it is top four finishers in the King George that fare next best but none of those have been declared meaning only The Giant Bolster (pulled up) represents that race. However, the Argento Chase winner, CapeTribulation, and the Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase winner, Silviniaco Conti, have been declared and winners of those races have a decent record in the Bowl. For example, if Cape Trbulation wins then would be emulating Grey Abbey and Exotic Dancer who also won the Argento Chase before taking this prize in the last eight years. And if Silviniaco Conti is successful, he will emulate other recent Charlie Hall winners, Grey Abbey and Nacarat. Another race that has come to the fore recently has a little surprisingly been the Hennessy Gold Cup won this season by Bobs Worth with two winners in the last four years and this year’s third, First Lieutenant, represents that top class form this season. Three of the last ten winners contested the Lexus Chase in which First Lieutenant was narrowly denied by Tidal Bay.

Another statistic to catch the eye is that second or third favourites have won 11 of the last 20 runnings. First Lieutenant will certainly start second-favourite behind Silviniaco Conti and then it is tight between The Giant Bolster, Cape Tribulation and Quito De La Roque who starts third-favourite ahead of Menorah who jumped like his legs were tied in the Ryanair Chase and has to prove he stays this trip.

Short List

Silviniaco Conti

First Lieutenant

Quito De La Roque

Conclusion

Being the Charlie Hall Chase winner that contested the Gold Cup but was spared an all-out effort to the line, last year’s Mildmay Novices’ Chase winner at this meeting SILVINIACO CONTI has to top a trends-based short list. Older horses fare better in this race than the Gold Cup but there are none aged in double figures here and this seven-year-old (Nicholls also won this race with a seven-year-old three years ago) is likely to prove hard to beat as his rating would indicate being 7lbs superior to the second top-rated FIRST LIEUTENANT. Mouse Morris’ charge has contested two of the most significant guides of late when placing in the Hennessy and Lexus and he will start second-favourite like so many winners of this race but I would like to see him win more often as he is on a losing streak of nine races. Runner-up to Cue Card in the Ryanair, the race was not run him to suit that day as the winner dictated the pace slowing it up to suit his 2m speed whereas we know First Lieutenant stays at least 3m so I wouldn’t want to judge him purely on that run. Given the excellent conversion rate of front runners to winners in this race QUITO DE LA ROQUE is interesting if they can front run or take over in front from Whodoyouthink early on the second circuit like he did when making all in the Grade 2 Kinloch Brae Chase over what was thought to be an inadequate 2m4f. That was also the first time Paul Townend rode him and he keeps the ride. He won the Mildmay Novices’ Chase at this meeting two years ago and was my sneaky idea of one to run well in the Gold Cup at a big price but they elected to save him for this race and keep him fresh. With the dead eight, he makes each-way appeal.


3:05 John Smith’s Aintree Hurdle

Given that there have been as many as 36 runnings of the Aintree Hurdle, the Irish have a fantastic record winning 17 of them having been clearly outnumbered down the years and this year they are solely represented by Thousand Stars who has been beaten a neck in this race by Oscar Whisky for the last two years. What is interesting about his claims this season is that it is often a horse that bypassed the Cheltenham Festival that proves to be Ireland’s chief hope in the Aintree Hurdle (Solwhit, Al Eile and Sacundai in more recent years) and this season he was purposely kept away from Cheltenham to be fresh for this prize. On the other hand, each and every one of the last 20 British-trained winners since the Aintree Hurdle was first run in 1976 had run at the Cheltenham Festival so Raya Star and Prospect Wells would be unusual winners in this respect.

Also in Thousand Stars’ favour is that five of the last 13 winners finished in the first four 12 months ago. That is clearly also a positive for the two-time defending title holder Oscar Whisky who will be bidding to join Monksfield and Al Eile as a three-time winner of a race that as witnessed many multiple winners, notably Morley Street who won it on four occasions. He bounced back from running poorly in last season’s World Hurdle to win this race 12 months ago but, this year, he ran even worse at Cheltenham and has had nine fewer days from which to recover.

A total of 24 of the 36 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle but only four since 1999 which does surprise me. This year’s Champion Hurdle representatives are Countrywide Flame (3rd), Zarkandar (4th) and Grandouet (fell). Regards Grandouet (who must prove his stamina), although the International Hurdle at Cheltenham in December has not featured more than one Aintree Hurdle winner in the last ten years, curiously, three of the last nine runners-up to have taken their chance here have won going back to 1997 (and Inglis Drever was only beaten a neck almost making it four) and Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old finished second to Zarkandar

Over the last decade, the race matching the Champion Hurdle toe for toe with Aintree Hurdle winners is the Istabraq Festival Hurdle run at Leopardstown over Christmas in which Thousand Stars had another little run round behind Hurricane Fly picking up prize money. A couple of Irish-trained Neptunewinners followed up here as novices (Danoli and Urubande). The New One may be trained instead in deepest Gloucestershire but taking the bold approach worked for those Neptune winners in the 1990s and Nigel Twiston-Davies’ novice could not have been much impressive at Cheltenham.

Short List

Thousand Stars

The New One

Oscar Whisky

Conclusion

Being the only Irish-trained runner in a race where they have a fantastic record (especially those that bypassed Cheltenham of late), THOUSAND STARS makes plenty of appeal, especially to each-way purposes at around 10/1 with the dead eight having given the Festival a miss to be fresh for this race and attempt to go one place better than in the last two years when beaten a neck each time. Horses to finish in the first four a year ago also fare well as do those that contested the Istabraq Hurdle so he has the right profile to go mighty close again. Given that the last two Neptune winners to run here both won then THE NEW ONE also has to make the shortlist. He was most impressive in that novice event over 1f further where he demonstrated a turn of foot that you would think would be even more lethal on a flat course. Given how well previous winners of this race have fared in defending their title (eight horses have won this race more than once) then OSCAR WHISKY has to also make the short list. He was poor at Cheltenham beaten much further out in the World Hurdle than was the case 12 months ago before he bounced back to win here. The Champion Hurdle has been a poor guide of late having only supplied four winners since 1999 given that race would have featured a huge amount of leading fancies which puts me off Countrywide Flame, Zarkandar and Grandouet (the latter would be my preference of the three).



3:40 John Smith’s Fox Hunters’ Chase


A very good race for punters over the last couple of decades with 18 winners being sent off in the first four in the betting but I’ve seen much better renewals than this year’s running so I am only hopeful rather than confident that the stronger patterns will hold up. Hard to say for sure who the front four in the betting will be at this stage but I will be surprised if the Cheltenham Fox Hunters third, Cottage Oak, and the former Topham winner, Gwanako (fell as joint-favourite in last year’s renewal), are not two of them with last year’s winner, Cloudy Lane, and the Irish-trained trio of Boxer Georg (runner-up in 2011 but only eighth last year), Warne (beat an injured Tammys Hill last time) and the multiple point-to-point winner, Battlefront, to the fore in the market. The Irish, however, have a poor record with only Elegant Lord in 1999 inscribing his name on the roll of honour in the last 30 years. Harps Counsel and Mourne Paddy make up the quintet of Irish raiders attempting to put that right.

What age we should be looking to could not contrast any more differently to the CGA Foxhunter Chase at Cheltenham as 20 of the last 22 winners of the Cheltenham equivalent have been aged ten or younger but all but two of the last 29 winners of the Aintree Fox Hunters’ have been aged at least nine so a very different type of horse is required. Therefore the eight-year-olds Bold Addition and Rebel Du Maquis have it to do.

Also in total contrast to the Cheltenham Festival equivalent is the early origins of most recent winners as eight of the last 11 winners were former handicappers under Rules rather than being brought up through the point-to-point ranks unlike the CGA Foxhunter Chase where 21 of the last 24 winners started their career down the traditional point-to-point/hunter chase route. Horses who started off outside of point-to-points and hunter chases are Bold Addition, Cloudy Lane, Cottage Oak, Earth Dream, Fairwood Present (first time blinkers at the age of 15 – you’ve got to be kidding me) Gwanako, Harps Counsel, Kildonnan, Offshore Account, Rebel Du Maquis, Silver Adonis, Silverburn, Silver Story, Sizing America, Tartan Snow, Warne and Cool Friend.

Four of the last 11 winners ran in the CGA Foxhunter Chase at the Cheltenham Festival including the last two (Baby Run and Cloudy Lane) who both had previous experience of the Grand National fences. Cottage Oak (3rd) fared best of those to take their chance this season with Earth Dream and Keenan’s Future both pulling up. Cottage Oak has earlier won the Walrus Hunters’ Chase at Haydock like two recent winners of the Aintree Foxhunters’ who both also contested the Cheltenham Fox Hunters’ in between.

Cloudy Lane was yet another prominently-ridden winner last season. They certainly don’t hang about in this big-field amateur riders’ contest and, time and again, it pays to be in the front rank from early on as it does with the Topham and Grand Sefton over this trip on this course. He was also one of the six of the last eight winners had experienced the Grand National fences before. Others with experience of the fences are Silver Adonis (won this race at 50/1 three years ago), Boxer Georg (second to Baby Run in this race two years ago), Gwanako (won the Topham as a five-year-old but fell in all three subsequent starts over these fences) and Offshore Account (three completions in four starts).

Over the last 20 years only two winners had failed to win earlier in the season which is against Boxer Georg, Cloudy Lane, Defying Gravity, Emergency Cover, Harps Counsel, Keenan’s Future, Rebel Du Maquis, Silver Adonis, Silverburn, Sizing America and Cool Friend. All but four winners won or placed on their previous start, the exceptions including three horses who were unplaced in the CGA Foxhunter Chase at Cheltenham so I wouldn’t be mad keen to overlook horses that finished out of the frame in that contest.

Short List

Cottage Oak

Gwanako

Offshore Account

Conclusion

I like COTTAGE OAK’s chances. He was no match for the classier Irish pair in the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ (four of the last 11 winners ran in that race from not that many runners) but he finished a good third on ground softer than he would have liked given the heavy rain on the final day of the meeting after he won the Walrus Hunters’ Chase well which has been won by two winners of this race recently. He should also start in the first four in the betting like 18 of the last 20 winners unless something odd occurs and was formerly a handicap chaser like 8 of the last 11 winners. The former classy handicapper GWANAKO should also start in the first four in the betting as he was going well until falling in last year’s race when joint favourite. The concern is that he has fallen on all three starts over these fences since he won the Topham as just a five-year-old but a clear round probably makes him the one to beat for Paul Nicholls who won this race back in 2002 with Torduff Express. If there is to be a surprise then OFFSHORE ACCOUNT appeals most of those at bigger prices for each-way purposes. He was hampered badly in last year’s race which saw his rider exiting out the side door but he finished third the year before and has also finished seventh in the Topham and 15th in the Grand National so he knows his way around this course and this would be one of the weaker renewals of this race.



4: 15 Matalan.co.uk Red Rum Handicap Chase

With 11 of the last 15 winners of this handicap being sent off in the first five in the betting, punters are just about on top overall I would say.

Novices have won seven of the last 11 runnings including last year where they were responsible for four of the first five home. This season’s novices are Rebel Rebellion, Viva Colonia, Ciceron and Kie. Of those, Viva Colonia contested the Grand Annual at Cheltenham like six of the last 14 Red Rum Handicap Chase winners where he was pulled up (but ran better than that suggested) with Kid Cassidy (2nd) faring best of today’s field for which he has been raised 7lbs. Oiseau De Nuit was one place behind in third ahead of Anquetta (9th), Stagecoach Pearl (brought down) and Tanks For That (pulled up).

Last season’s renewal of the ‘Red Rum’ has featured two of the last six winners and last year’s second and third, Astracad and Echo Bob, are back again as are Kid Cassidy (5th), Oiseau De Nuit (6th) and Tanks For That (pulled up).

Of the last 13 winners only Fota Island has won carrying more than 11st 2lbs since 1999 so this has been no race for highly weight horses of late and has to be against Kid Cassidy, Oiseau De Nuit, Tanks For That and Toubab who are all set to carry 11st 7lbs+. That stat would also be against Astracad (11st 5lbs) and Stagecoach Pearl (11st 4lbs).

Given the high success rate of novices it will not come as surprise to not that horses aged in double figures have struggled though it may be a slight eyebrow raiser that they have found it tough to the extent that only one of their clan has won in the last 24 years. On that basis, Nozic (12), Oiseau De Nuit (11) and Tanks For That (10) are not for me.

Five wins in total for the Irish since this race was first run in 1977 including the very first winner, Skymas. More latterly two wins in the last 14 runnings is just an okay return though it is not a race they would tackle in any great depth. Echo Bob is an interesting runner for them this season having finished third as a novice last year. The Tony Martin-trained Pires is also sent over from Ireland having had a sharpener on the Flat last month.


Short List

Viva Colonia

Royal Rebellion

Ciceron

Echo Bob

Conclusion

Being a novice that contested that Grand Annual that just about fits the weight stats VIVA COLONIA tops the trends-based list. He was pulled up in the Grand Annual but ran better than first appears and returning to a flat course on better ground will suit this speedster more than testing ground on an undulating course. Venetia Williams trained Stan to win this race in 2008 and her CICERON is an interesting contender. Also a novice like 7 of the last 11 winners, he was put in his place by Royal Rebellion at Sandown last tine out but he meets that rival on 13lbs better terms and his trainer is having a season to remember so it wouldn’t be the greatest shock if he turned it round now in a handicap chase. ROYAL REBELION is the in-form novice of the race so has to also appear on any short list. Paul Nicholls ended his hoodoo in this race last season in style with a novice and this good-ground performer jumped superbly in victory at Sandown last time and similar positive tactics often work well on this chase course. Kie is the other novice so it was tempting to make him the final short list pick but that vote goes to last year’s third ECHO BOB as a run in this race the previous year has been no bad thing and the Irish have a decent record given they don’t send many over.



4:50 Betfred Manifesto Novices’ Chase


This is only the fifth running so trends are thin on the ground but all four winners ran well in defeat at the Cheltenham Festival (three in the Arkle and one in the Jewson) and were sent off second or third-favourite. However, do take on board that the Jewson was first run in 2011 so the Arkle has had twice as many cracks to feature the Manifesto Chase winner. The Arkle is represented this year by His Excellency and Tap Night who finished third and fifth respectively. The Jewson is represented by Changing Times and Captain Conan who also finished third and fifth respectively.

As is often the case with winners on the Mildmay Chase Course (the Betfred Bowl especially), all four winners to date raced handily (or were not obviously held up). Two in fact, made virtually all the running so this may be more of a race for in-running players. I’m not sure this course will suit His Excellency’s exaggerated hold-up tactics.

It has not been Paul Nicholls’ race so far, however, with four of his five runners failing to run up to expectations and he runs Fago who missed the Arkle after a laboured prep run after which his stable remarked that he had had enough for the season so I am a little surprised to see him here.

Very early days to be drawing any real conclusions but the 1-2-3last season were rated 150+ heading into the race as were the 1-2-3of the previous season. Sunny Ledgend is only rated 129, Carlito Brigante just 137, Drumshambo is 141 and Tap Night is 145.

Short List

Captain Conan

Changing Times

Conclusion

Take out a workmanlike Simonsig (and with Overturn and Arvika Ligeonneiere massively underperforming) this year’s Arkle was, in a word, rubbish, so I prefer the Jewson form and suggest the fifth and third, Captain Conan and Changing Times over the Arkle pair of His Excellency and Tap Night and the Kim Muir winner, Same Difference. CAPTAIN CONAN didn’t stay in the Jewson under a fairly positive ride but, on a faster course, on better ground and over a slightly shorter trip and ridden to pounce later on, I think he can reverse placings with CHANGING TIMES who ran on strongly to pick up the pieces at 100/1 to finish third. Captain Conan certainly ran well at this meeting last season when second to Darlan and for all a horse his trainer thinks is all speed, then Good ground on a speed-favouring track should be made for him. Fago is top rated despite Captain Conan having won two Grade 1s this season but a terrible run last time allied to disappointments in this race before for his stable mean I have to let him pass.



5:25 Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle


Five of the last seven runnings have gone the way of a novice so we have to look very closely at Easter Day, Many Clouds, Wilton Milan, Ballybough Pat, Sixty Something, Buthelezi and Lienosus. Three of those, however, are five-year-olds and just two of those have won in 25 years which takes the shine a little off Easter Day, Wilton Milan and Buthelezi plus Hollow Tree.

Only one of the last 15 winners had not run at least four times earlier in the season so I am not drawn to the quietly-campaigned individual like Open Hearted, Close House, Sentry Duty, Barafundle, Wilton Milan, Buthelezi or Connectivity. The last nine winners all arrived here with a win earlier in the season behind them (four of the last eight won on their most recent start) as had 17 of the 25 had in all so maidens this season that are statistically up against it are Barafundle, Sentry Duty, Hollow Tree, Silver Gypsy, Connectivity and Battle Group.

Half of the last 16 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival. Unsurprisingly it is the Pertemps Final over a similar trip which has fared best, with six winners coming from that race. Jetson (3rd), Ely Brown (6th), First Fandango (9th), Hada Men (12th), Close House (19th) and Ballybough Pat (20th) are this year’s representatives.

The EBF Final at Sandown, a novice handicap, provided the winner three years running from 2007 and this season’s runner-up, Many Clouds, takes his chance here. Huntingdon’s Sydney Banks Memorial Novice Hurdle, won this year by Paul Nicholls’ Grade 1 Challow Hurdle runner-up, Easter Day, has provided two fairly recent winners.

Seven of the last ten winners were officially rated in the very narrow band of between 128-131. This is a better race than it used to be so this trend may become less relevant, but horses from this narrow band of BHA ratings finished first and second three years running from 2006 and 1-2-3-5 in 2010. There were no qualifiers in 2009 and just one each in 2011 and 2012. The latter horse was American Spin, who went down by under a length at 50/1. Lienosus and Battle Group both squeeze in off a bottom weight of 131.

Short List

Many Clouds

Ballybough Pat

Sixty Something

Lienosus

Conclusion

Given the excellent record of novices, I make no apologies for having all four shortlisted horses from that bracket though not the five-year-olds whose record is not so good which is frustrating as Easter Day also won the Sidney Banks which has been a good guide of late. MANY CLOUDS was a fine second under top weight in the EBF Final so he is top of the list as that race threw up three consecutive winners between 2007-2009 including Albertas Run in the same silks and he looks equally as tough. BALLYBOUGH PAT was third in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle before contesting the Pertemps Final which has thrown up six winners so he another novice of interest with stamina being his strong suit. Also of interest is SIXTY SOMETHING for the Paul Webber yard that won this with the 50/1 shot Time For Rupert. Very impressive in a first-time hood over this course and distance back in October, his trainer has probably had this handicap in mind for a while and he returned to form with a win last time out. LIENONUS runs off 131 so is one of just two to fit the tight ratings-band stats and is another novice and last-time-out winner (four of the last eight winners also won last time out). Evan Williams’ feather weight had previously been taking on quality opposition prior to his last win and makes each-way appeal.

[IanD]

First race I had the first 3 just in wrong order. I had Irish Saint to win with Runswick Royal and Lunique to place.

The guy on Channel 4 recommended Runswick Royal at 20 -1 just before the off.

[IanD]

Had First Lieutenant in the second.

I have a soft spot for the Twiston Davies's and The New One so have backed them to win and Thousand Stars to place in 15:05.

[Mackman15]

Thank you kindly.
Liked the look of two and left it it at that.
Both came in.

Pint owed